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Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?


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HOLA441
9 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Totally agree - Seems typical Communist cover up of a **** up but once they faced the problem I think they did tell the world. We just chose to ignore them

They were warning us since January, but weeks later Trump was still dismissing it as fake news a Democrat plot.

At the same time US conservative websites were wetting themselves over the damage it was going to do to China and on this thread some were theorising about it only affecting Asians. 

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HOLA442

 

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52048195

Quote

Coronavirus: Pangolins found to carry viruses related to Covid-19

By Helen BriggsBBC News
A trafficked pangolin is seen out of its cage in Kuala Lumpur in 2002Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES Image captionA trafficked pangolin in Kuala Lumpur: The animal is a suspect in the outbreak

Pangolins smuggled into China have been confirmed to contain viruses closely related to the one sweeping the world.

Sale of the animals in wildlife markets should be strictly prohibited to minimise the risk of future outbreaks, says an international team.

Pangolins are the most-commonly illegally trafficked mammal, used both as food and in traditional medicine.

Bats are thought to be the original viral source, with another species playing a role in human transmission.

In a new research paper, published in the journal Nature, researchers say their genetic data suggests "handling these animals requires considerable caution, and that their sale in wet markets should be strictly prohibited."

 

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HOLA443
21 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

 

I did't realise that the Wuhan Province in China was such a hot spot for worldwide tourism.

There are loads of cities in China with populations above 1m that most people outside the country have never heard of. I can recall reading how one young Chinese person was desperate to escape the city they had been born in because it only had 3,000,000 inhabitants so there was little opportunity...

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HOLA445
23 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

 

 

I posted earlier in the thread about beuracracy holding up the government in making and carrying out decisions. It's actually been surprisingly good so far.... But I assume that's GDPR preventing the release of personal information without 'consent'. 

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HOLA446
Just now, regprentice said:

I posted earlier in the thread about beuracracy holding up the government in making and carrying out decisions. It's actually been surprisingly good so far.... But I assume that's GDPR preventing the release of personal information without 'consent'. 

GDPR relates to identifiable information such as name and address. The number of actual dead by COVID has no privacy issues whatsoever.

The only reason to do this is to hide the true number of dead for political advantage.

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HOLA448

Trump has changed big sections of his mind.

 

Quote

 

Donald Trump begins to water down commitment to reopening the country by Easter

'So we’re going to be talking, and it could be we’ll do sections of our country,' Trump said Wednesday at the White House. 'There's big sections of our country that are very, you know, little affected by what's taking place, then there are other sections that are very heavily affected,' the president said.

'Then there are other sections that are very heavily affected, so there’s a big difference,' Trump said.  

'I would say by Easter we'll have a recommendation,' he said.

Daily Mail

 

 

Edited by rollover
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HOLA449
14 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

GDPR relates to identifiable information such as name and address. The number of actual dead by COVID has no privacy issues whatsoever.

The only reason to do this is to hide the true number of dead for political advantage.

Depends what stats they issue. If they issue stats split by town, sex, age, condition then that might be enough for me to say, 'I know my neighbour recently died... That must be him in the stats'. They won't issue low level stats that don't add up to the high level stats so they would strip you out of everything. 

I worked for a bank on published Bank of England statistics by postcode. All the stats showed was new customers by sector (type of business) by area. You end up with a stat like  10 retail stores in Central Birmingham (BH1, B1?) took out business loans in April.'

We ended up submitting data to the BoE for only the first 4 or 5 digits of the postcode because a full postcode might be enough for a member of the public to work out the identity of the company from its postcode if there was only one business of that type in that street. 

Edited by regprentice
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HOLA4411
1 hour ago, Social Justice League said:

I have a feeling that China released this Virus on us.  No proof, but how the ****** did every country get infected so quick??

It's suspicious imo.

1 hour ago, rollover said:

It's pretty simple, ... build herd stupidity!

The question that needs answering is why the UK didn't hault all air travel once the super spreader was identified?
Could have bailed out the airlines and travel industry and all gone about our daily business. Cheaper and less dead.

Are the airports still open with no checks? Now that's suspicious activity to me, either planned by design or a totally incompetent achievement. Baaa!

 

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44 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Anecdotal: in laws just got back from all inclusive holiday abroad after having had flight brought forward. Went straight to supermarket. "Annoyed" they couldn't get pasta. ?

Did they come straight out of German big brother?

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HOLA4413
3 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

The question that needs answering is why the UK didn't hault all air travel once the super spreader was identified?
Could have bailed out the airlines and travel industry and all gone about our daily business. Cheaper and less dead.

That would have been "impossible", apparently.

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Quote

'Coronavirus coughing' at emergency workers could lead to two years in jail, says CPS

The Crown Prosecution Service has put out a statement today saying that anyone using “coronavirus coughs” to threaten emergency worker could face serious criminal charges. It follows reports that police officers, shop workers and others have been coughed at by people claiming to have the disease.

The CPS says that using coughing in this way as a threat could lead to someone being charged with common assault. And it says that assaults specifically against emergency workers are punishable by up to two years in prison.

Better to be tasered that 2 years in jail

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HOLA4416
11 minutes ago, ticket2ride said:

Pretty much confined to their room. And too tight to pay the $25 daily wifi charge. Still mind boggling. Family told them not to go.

Chat in the office is currently  'When this is over, everyone will be booking foreign holidays for September, everyone will want holidays at the same time. Prices not coming down yet"  etc. etc.

Dream on morons.

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HOLA4417
18 minutes ago, Andy T said:

Chat in the office is currently  'When this is over, everyone will be booking foreign holidays for September, everyone will want holidays at the same time. Prices not coming down yet"  etc. etc.

Dream on morons.

I nearly booked August flights at 25% off. Luckily Mrs ticket2ride vetoed it.

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HOLA4419
1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I had never heard of it before but it's as big as London and even now looking at November Skyscanner shows 2 direct flights a day from London, with another 8 one stopping tickets.

Apparently well over 5,000 people a week traveled between London and Wuhan.

   

I hadn't heard of it either. China has over 100 cities with a population of over one million people, including 19 with a population over 5m - many of which I still haven't heard of. It is crazy how big that country is.

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The tremendous level of research supporting both ambient temperature and humidity in its role in transmission and infection motivated this study to examine the influence of environmental factors on COVID-19. We sought to determine whether climate could be a factor in the spread of this disease.
 

Temperature, humidity, and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=249000000081124030125086125084093065040082022002039016066109024100116091109010119095122031018004012045098003017105114125109114051027045019081116110117082101005094126040046041081085069093117085113069064098085075021018008094021069091109024107094071067001&EXT=pdf

This is interesting.  Does not look good for UK and New York in April.  But if we get a heatwave this summer that gives us hope.

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HOLA4422

 

Quote

 

We poor people, we are immune.

A Mexican official has today controversially claimed poor people are immune to the coronavirus that has rapidly swept the world.

Miguel Barbosa, governor of the city of Puebla, argued the majority of the country's near-500 COVID-19 cases are wealthy people.

Mr Barbosa - who has no known medical qualifications - added: 'If you are rich, you are at risk. If you are poor, no... We poor people, we are immune.' 

Daily Mail

 

He must be coronavirus experts.

 

Edited by rollover
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HOLA4424
1 hour ago, ticket2ride said:

USA getting create with the figures too, 247 deaths yesterday, today 10. Edit: realised this is current total.

image.png.d4d48dc538224181496bd9c296919be4.png

You can try worldometers, numbers are coming in all day.

500,000 - Coronavirus Cases

US is going to overtake Italy soon and possibly China later on today or early tomorrow.

Total Cases now:

  1. China - 81,285
  2. Italy - 74,386
  3. USA - 73,813
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