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Guardian: At last, a reason to celebrate: house prices are falling

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"Ever-rising house prices are a curse. They are bad for social mobility. They are bad for young people. And they are bad for the economy. The billions that are spent pushing up property prices could be more productively invested elsewhere."

Can't argue with that.

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21 minutes ago, Up the spout said:

A couple of months of easing prices is hardly reason to celebrate. If we ever got to 25% off I'd open a bottle of bubbly, though.

Where I live, even 25% off would be about the same level of affordability as in 2006!

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In London, AFAIC a 2012 price lvl would be enough for me to consider buying, not ideal but I need to get on with my life and stability in it

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1 hour ago, Shrink Proof said:

"Ever-rising house prices are a curse. They are bad for social mobility. They are bad for young people. And they are bad for the economy. The billions that are spent pushing up property prices could be more productively invested elsewhere."

Unfortunately the central bank have an inflation target based on a basket of goods.... Bricks and mortar is not in that basket. 😂

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Weaning Britain off its obsession with rising house prices won’t be easy. The economy now only has two settings: strong growth when the housing market is buzzing and owner-occupiers feel confident enough to borrow against the rising value of their homes; and much weaker growth when the housing market is dormant. There is a strong temptation for policymakers to reignite the housing market when, as now, the economy is spluttering along.

this is unfortunately true

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1 hour ago, Shrink Proof said:

The billions that are spent pushing up property prices could be more productively invested elsewhere.

Quote

Our results lend support to concerns that a prolonged period of low real interest rates can adversely affect the real economy. It can undermine potential economic growth through real and financial channels, for instance through misallocation of capital by weak banks (Andrews and Petroulakis 2017). 

https://voxeu.org/article/curse-persistently-low-real-interest-rates

Indeed, there's no productivity puzzle at all.

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34 minutes ago, Freki said:

In London, AFAIC a 2012 price lvl would be enough for me to consider buying, not ideal but I need to get on with my life and stability in it

So 50% off current prices?

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Significant change of tone from the Guardian on housing after the disgusting Lloyds Bank "articles" telling people how cool it is to "co-live" in "micro-flats".

This is a good article. It is a superb article for the MSM. The author even highlighted the issue with the ridiculous Resolution Foundation's ridiculous idea to prices by throwing more money at buyers.

Well done Larry Elliott, Guardian economics editor .

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6 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

Well done Larry Elliott, Guardian economics editor .

Not so much. He's still maintaining this fantasy:

"With unemployment at its lowest level for more than 40 years and interest rates at 0.5%, the chance of a house-price crash is currently remote. More likely, prices will stay where they are while incomes catch up. Property will become cheaper as a result."

This debt will not be inflated away so easily, that was the failure of QE and near-zero rates. If it didn't work in that environment, it's absurd to suggest it'll happen against a backdrop of both the U.S. and China tightening.

There financial system is full of junk and the potatoes are getting hotter,  a liquidity crisis will show up in corporate debt, if not cars, property or something else. A recession is already printing. Larry Elliott knows all this but he stays within the confines of respectable dinner party gossip.

 

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3 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Not so much. He's still maintaining this fantasy:

"With unemployment at its lowest level for more than 40 years and interest rates at 0.5%, the chance of a house-price crash is currently remote. More likely, prices will stay where they are while incomes catch up. Property will become cheaper as a result." 

 

Yes I did not like hearing that bit, but I cannot say for sure he will be wrong.

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1 minute ago, AdamoMucci said:

Yes I did not like hearing that bit, but I cannot say for sure he will be wrong.

This debt will not be inflated away so easily, that was the failure of QE and near-zero rates. If it didn't work in that environment, it's absurd to suggest it'll happen against a backdrop of both the U.S. and China tightening.

There financial system is full of junk and the potatoes are getting hotter,  a liquidity crisis will show up in corporate debt, if not cars, property or something else. A recession is already printing. Larry Elliott knows all this but he stays within the confines of respectable dinner party gossip.

He's wrong and he knows it.

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Many people will be in negative equity in the UK over the next 5 years because of this bent property ponzi perpetuated by successive governments and the corrupt media.

All property rampers should be jailed for fraud imo.  Politicians, Kirsty and Phil, the fooking lot.

Utter scum, the lot of them.

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*Falls off chair*

*Picks self up and sits on chair*

*Reads comments section,*

"Comments are quite bearish too"

*Falls of chair again, realises its quite comfortable down here*

 

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Much like Mumsnet, when articles like this appear in the Guardian, all the socially liberal, right-on folks, suddenly get very defensive about HPI - "But what about all those in negative equity who just wanted a home but never mind the equally poor renters". Strange that...

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27 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

How are the banks going to keep solvent now?

Another bail out, QE. Rinse and repeat. Banks will be protected at any cost. House prices will either stagnate or continue to rise in medium to long term.

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9 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

Another bail out, QE. Rinse and repeat. Banks will be protected at any cost. House prices will either stagnate or continue to rise in medium to long term.

I doubt another bail out will happen.

The banking system is a leech that needs flushed away. 

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4 hours ago, iamnumerate said:

Where I live, even 25% off would be about the same level of affordability as in 2006!

In my book that's worth opening a bottle of bubbly, although I would hesitate in actually buying a house.

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3 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Many people will be in negative equity in the UK over the next 5 years because of this bent property ponzi perpetuated by successive governments and the corrupt media.

All property rampers should be jailed for fraud imo.  Politicians, Kirsty and Phil, the fooking lot.

Utter scum, the lot of them.

Shame. You missed out the the bankers .... you know ..... the ones who are protected from ANY risk.

 

Ah I see you did mention them ....... but they they have been mentioned in the first instance.

Edited by cnick

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55 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Not a reason to celebrate if you're a recent home buyer.

...

...

Just sayin' is all.

 

Why?...just need to stay living in it and paying for it for longer......a safe home to live in has its uses.😉

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The mainstream finally coming around to the idea that ridiculous House Price Inflation is a bad thing overall and will end in disenfranchisement for most.

It's only been about two decades...... 🙄

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8 hours ago, Freki said:

In London, AFAIC a 2012 price lvl would be enough for me to consider buying, not ideal but I need to get on with my life and stability in it

I feel the need to warn you that yesterday's Sun brought terrible news. Apparently if you buy a house it may later transpire that you want a bigger house at which point your life will go back on hold:

Quote

SOME home owners are being forced to put their lives on hold as they struggle make the next step on the property ladder.

Source

Sometimes I wonder if this business of mixing up how our lives progress with house purchases might be inherently problematic and may actually represent what the noted philosopher of conspicuous consumption Carlton Ridenhour described as "paying mental rent to corporate presidents"

 

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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