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House Price Crash Forum

Up the spout

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About Up the spout

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  1. "No, it won't." ~ signed by institutions and UHNWIs that own 95% of America.
  2. This is what TPTB relied on in the Scottish ref and the EU ref, as told to me by a prominent campaigner and business consultant/leader. "What could happen?" if the status quo changes prevents a lot of scared people voting for change.
  3. I watched a documentary where a professional gambler bought accounts off students. The accounts are always banned, eventually.
  4. Trump wants lower rates because he and his peers have hundreds of millions of debt. Every tweet (especially about Gyna) is aimed at destabilising the US economy, which if successful will lead to lower interest rates.
  5. What / Who will collapse first in 2019 I know what it won't be; housing!
  6. The 50-year below the 30-year doesn't mean much. It's saying growth is expected to be lower from 2050 to 2070. When the 10-year is yielding less than the 1-year or 2-year does it get interesting.
  7. For me the middle classes came in after industrialisation. You had the landed gentry becoming entrepreneurs (usually on the backs of scientists) employing workers but not wanting to have contact with the riff raff, so employed a foreman. As operations became bigger and more complex the departments multiplied with more riff raff requiring more foremen. Those foremen needed more than the bloke at the top and so a hierarchy in the company was introduced, with upper managers and a middle class was born. Adding to the middle class were new jobs such as accountants, lawyers, occupational therapists etc. De-industrialisation, automation, AI, and flatter hierarchies are all squeezing the need for middle managers and middle class jobs. Eventually, if you extrapolate that (if AI fulfils its promise), we should see the middle class jobs dwindle until they are gone and we're back to the landed gentry (owners) and riff raff.
  8. Caroline Takla, director of London buying agency The Collection, said: “Wah wah wah wah, boo hoo, my sales commission is going to go down!" Ah, diddums.
  9. That worked in South Korea, enabling them to avoid loans from the IMF and protect young companies like Samsung from international competition. I don't think lightning strikes twice but you never know.
  10. NIMBYs; "They've built ugly lock-ups for noisy undesirables which have really brought down house prices. DISGRACEFUL!"
  11. I had an S5 which fell apart after being dropped, so got a... Nokia? Anyway, got caught in a thunderstorm while motorbiking in Thailand so it was zapped. Now got an S8 which I'll use until it's dead (very pleased with it). Bought a 2nd hand (massive Samsung Smart) TV, no vehicle, Lenovo laptop which is pretty basic, a Fuji camera, some clothes and shoes, and some nice, cheap wall art. Happy to not have lots of stuff to replace when it - inevitably - breaks.
  12. The book 'Boom and Bust' written by Fred Harrison in 2005 proposed an 18-year property cycle in which he also predicted the 2007/08 crash using this model. The model proposes a four year 'recession' or downturn period followed by 7 years moderate growth and then 7 years higher growth (interspersed by a mid cycle wobble). The final two years are characterised by the 'winner's curse' with property prices rising exponentially prior to a crash. Following the crash in 07/08 we had four years of stagnant prices, since around 2011/12 moderate rises of around 5%. According to Harrison a mid term wobble should be approaching (2018/9?) which should be followed by seven years of significant rises up to a spectacular crash in 2025. Apparently this pattern has been playing out in cycles of 18-20 years for the last couple of hundred years!
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