Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[OnionTerror]

28 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

So DB, what is the solution to 'cheap imported labour. Spell it out. Could it be to train an excess of domestic labour to cope with the flexibility that is needed? What effect do you think this will have on wages in a steady state case?

My cupboard overfloweth with jars of Jam Tomorrow and since when did you consider what 'the ERG thinks' as grounded in reality? 

But you might be right about when the checks cone in. There may not be that many goods to move around Britain...hey presto...no haulage problem.

Technology will no doubt replace some of this work, but ultimately, people at the bottom will need to be paid more (and better benefits and working conditions) in order to entice them in to those jobs (and to keep them there) -  especially in those jobs that most of us wont do.  It'll lead to higher prices in certain areas. 

Whether you agree with that, you have to decide whether that's a price worth paying, but that's probably the path we'll will end up taking, unless the govt of the day changes the visa rules.  How much is a person worth?  What do we value the most? Should all workers of all levels be treated with dignity & respect?  As at the moment, they aren't

Edited September 26, 2021 by Dave Beans

[pig]

37 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Yes, I think you're right.

I haven't seen the UK this broken since the 70s. Friend of mine in his 80s narrowly avoided a fist fight in a petrol station this morning. Up until now, he was almost entirely insulated to the realities. Fuel and food though... never ends well (politically).

Today he has woken up to the UK feeling like a Mad Max film and not the old sleepy game of cricket he was rather expecting RE: Brexit...

 

Ditto with younger versions - met another one last night. She hasn't directly seen any fighting but was telling me about flying kung fu kicks on social media lol. Genuinely shocked about this particular episode but it sounds like she's been uneasy about Brexit for a while, wouldn't vote Brexit tomorrow. 

Actually her reasoning for voting Brexit was along the lines of  'Brussels always telling us what to do' I asked her 'what?', she couldn't answer so in a way that is an example of 'abstract' ideas working - or perhaps the accumulation of straight banana stories...

[pig]

41 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Our membership of the single market papered over the cracks, over issues that have existed for a number of years.  We have relied on cheap imported labour to keep the JIT supply chain going..as have many sectors of our economy.

Things will get worse before they get better, seeing as we haven't "properly" left, as checks on stuff coming in have been suspended until July next near - whether that will be suspended again...possibly.  The ERG & co thinks that Brexit has been a minor event, and that when COVID abates, we are home free..  

Isn't the problem here that we've cut ourselves off from continental supply chains ?

When this story began - some time ago - the way it was described was that you had drivers picking up and dropping off across Europe, but that in future because of all the hassle, haulage companies might lop off the uk leg of the journey.

[Peter Hun]

52 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Technology will no doubt replace some of this work,

I glad some people still belive in magic.

[OnionTerror]

2 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

I glad some people still belive in magic.

Automation, yes.

[IMHAL]

36 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Technology will no doubt replace some of this work, but ultimately, people at the bottom will need to be paid more (and better benefits and working conditions) in order to entice them in to those jobs (and to keep them there) -  especially in those jobs that most of us wont do.  It'll lead to higher prices in certain areas. 

In a way Brexit is not unlike the luddite movement, but unlike that in that 'technology' replacing jobs is not seen as a bad thing. 

Higher prices will most certainly be the result of this excercise in cutting off our nose to spite our face...it will eat up any wage inceases for the few and result in the majority also paying more! That is what I call less than zero sum.

36 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Whether you agree with that, you have to decide whether that's a price worth paying, but that's probably the path we'll will end up taking, unless the govt of the day changes the visa rules.  How much is a person worth?  What do we value the most? Should all workers of all levels be treated with dignity & respect?  As at the moment, they aren't

How much is a person worth? Market conditions usually dictate that in a capitalist economy. An enforced shortage of drivers is a temporary issue....at steady state...when we have trained enough drivers then the market will rebalance and they will be no better off - they may even be worse off because of wage push general inflation.

The real question you are asking tho I think is rather different. It's more to do with what should a working person expect to be able to afford, a house, food, heating etc...a living wage. That is something that only a government can control and only to an extent lest it creates it's own negative spiral. I agree that we should have a living wage...but government have lapsed into 'only high house prices matter'...that is the most significant part of their expenses and cause of many peoples woes.

This issue is being painted as simple'nomics by Brexiteers in an attempt to portray this as a Brexit benefit. It is not simple and it is most definately not a benefit to the general population...care workers, hospitality, the gig economy...the millions of other workers who don't earn enough are in this story too yet they are not even mentioned. What about them? Do you expect them to pay for HGV drivers wage rises via wage push inflation?

 

 

[OnionTerror]

9 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

In a way Brexit is not unlike the luddite movement, but unlike that in that 'technology' replacing jobs is not seen as a bad thing. 

Higher prices will most certainly be the result of this excercise in cutting off our nose to spite our face...it will eat up any wage inceases for the few and result in the majority also paying more! That is what I call less than zero sum.

How much is a person worth? Market conditions usually dictate that in a capitalist economy. An enforced shortage of drivers is a temporary issue....at steady state...when we have trained enough drivers then the market will rebalance and they will be no better off - they may even be worse off because of wage push general inflation.

The real question you are asking tho I think is rather different. It's more to do with what should a working person expect to be able to afford, a house, food, heating etc...a living wage. That is something that only a government can control and only to an extent lest it creates it's own negative spiral. I agree that we should have a living wage...but government have lapsed into 'only high house prices matter'...that is the most significant part of their expenses and cause of many peoples woes.

This issue is being painted as simple'nomics by Brexiteers in an attempt to portray this as a Brexit benefit. It is not simple and it is most definately not a benefit to the general population...care workers, hospitality, the gig economy...the millions of other workers who don't earn enough are in this story too yet they are not even mentioned. What about them? Do you expect them to pay for HGV drivers wage rises via wage push inflation?

 

 

What's a fair living wage then? 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

24 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

What's a fair living wage then? 

£65k I'd suggest.

Roughly 4x the average house price.

Edited September 26, 2021 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, Dave Beans said:

What's a fair living wage then? 

Tough one to answer. The only thing I know is that getting those who are on minimum wage to pay for HGV drivers wage push inflation is wrong on so many levels.

Edited September 26, 2021 by IMHAL

[byron78]

45 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

£65k I'd suggest.

Roughly 4x the average house price.

So 1 X Fruit Picker in our brave new world, then?

[byron78]

2 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Our membership of the single market papered over the cracks, over issues that have existed for a number of years.  We have relied on cheap imported labour to keep the JIT supply chain going..as have many sectors of our economy.

Things will get worse before they get better, seeing as we haven't "properly" left, as checks on stuff coming in have been suspended until July next near - whether that will be suspended again...possibly.  The ERG & co thinks that Brexit has been a minor event, and that when COVID abates, we are home free..  

Christ. We're F'kd then. Well... you lot are.

I'll be one of the unburied dead piling up in the streets (grave diggers are now on 100K a year), come 2025.

[OnionTerror]

18 minutes ago, byron78 said:

Christ. We're F'kd then. Well... you lot are.

I'll be one of the unburied dead piling up in the streets (grave diggers are now on 100K a year), come 2025.

Most likely!

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-sets-out-pragmatic-new-timetable-for-introducing-border-controls

[dugsbody]

2 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Technology will no doubt replace some of this work, but ultimately, people at the bottom will need to be paid more (and better benefits and working conditions) in order to entice them in to those jobs (and to keep them there) -  especially in those jobs that most of us wont do.  It'll lead to higher prices in certain areas. 

Whether you agree with that, you have to decide whether that's a price worth paying, but that's probably the path we'll will end up taking, unless the govt of the day changes the visa rules.  How much is a person worth?  What do we value the most? Should all workers of all levels be treated with dignity & respect?  As at the moment, they aren't

Have we just skipped all the evidence that says that immigration does not meaningfully lower wages?

[pig]

3 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Our membership of the single market papered over the cracks, over issues that have existed for a number of years.  We have relied on cheap imported labour to keep the JIT supply chain going..as have many sectors of our economy.

Things will get worse before they get better, seeing as we haven't "properly" left, as checks on stuff coming in have been suspended until July next near - whether that will be suspended again...possibly.  The ERG & co thinks that Brexit has been a minor event, and that when COVID abates, we are home free..  

Actually - this is just wrong.

Its interesting you’ve muddied the waters by substituting ‘cheap Labour’ for fact that JIT relies on efficient interconnections between suppliers. 

Its not that ‘cheap Labour’ is irrelevant to the situation, but it’s being used a lot at the moment  as a kind of human shield for having screwed up these connections: understandable as there isn’t really any rational excuse for it.

 

 

[OnionTerror]

2 minutes ago, pig said:

Actually - this is just wrong.

Its interesting you’ve muddied the waters by substituting ‘cheap Labour’ for fact that JIT relies on efficient interconnections between suppliers. 

Its not that ‘cheap Labour’ is irrelevant to the situation, but it’s being used a lot at the moment  as a kind of human shield for having screwed up these connections: understandable as there isn’t really any rational excuse for it.

 

 

...and how does pretty much anything get delivered within JIT?  By truck..

[yelims]

[pig]

1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

...and how does pretty much anything get delivered within JIT?  By truck..

And ? the simplest answer is to copy paste the post you are responding to.

I can also add we both know this is not about raising wages - the last time I checked the ERG weren’t trying to strengthen unions or raise the minimum wage - it’s all just a cynical white lie for the sheeple. A bit like HTB.

More likely the ERG and chums will have invested in tech to reduce HGV driver salaries to £zero and will want patting on the head for reducing inflation and making GDP look better as our quality of life is decimated and inequality goes wild

 

 

[OnionTerror]

5 minutes ago, pig said:

And ? the simplest answer is to copy paste the post you are responding to.

I can also add we both know this is not about raising wages - the last time I checked the ERG weren’t trying to strengthen unions or raise the minimum wage - it’s all just a cynical white lie for the sheeple. A bit like HTB.

More likely the ERG and chums will have invested in tech to reduce HGV driver salaries to £zero and will want patting on the head for reducing inflation and making GDP look better as our quality of life is decimated and inequality goes wild

 

 

...or from the fields, when you harvest fresh produce by hand, which only has a finite life before its thrown..

[pig]

3 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

...or from the fields, when you harvest fresh produce by hand, which only has a finite life before its thrown..

🤷

…so I’d copy paste a second time  + the addition lol

It’s also  a bit like all those arguments weeping over the fact we were stealing workers from elsewhere and punishing home employers by pushing up the wages and conditions of those who remained

But it was all rubbish wasn’t it ? cynical arguments because the prime reason didn’t have enough traction.

 

[rollover]

3 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Our membership of the single market papered over the cracks, over issues that have existed for a number of years.  We have relied on cheap imported labour to keep the JIT supply chain going..as have many sectors of our economy.

Things will get worse before they get better, seeing as we haven't "properly" left, as checks on stuff coming in have been suspended until July next near - whether that will be suspended again...possibly.  The ERG & co thinks that Brexit has been a minor event, and that when COVID abates, we are home free..  

When do you think things will go better?

According Jacob Rees-Mogg we should see the benefits of Brexit is over the next 50 years.

[OnionTerror]

5 minutes ago, pig said:

🤷

…so I’d copy paste a second time  + the addition lol

It’s also  a bit like all those arguments weeping over the fact we were stealing workers from elsewhere and punishing home employers by pushing up the wages and conditions of those who remained

But it was all rubbish wasn’t it ? cynical arguments because the prime reason didn’t have enough traction.

 

The old way of doing things is now gone, dead.  There's no point comparing what has gone before to what we are moving to.  We aren't going back.

Supply chains will have to adapt, otherwise they will die.  Someone or thing else will come in and replace it.  Part of this adaption will be to pay a fair and decent wage in order to attract workers.

Edited September 26, 2021 by Dave Beans

[steve99]

2 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

What's a fair living wage then? 

I will give you an example. A friend of mine who lives in Vienna, Austria works for the minimum wage more or less, is on par with UK minimum.  Gets an extra pay in July and another extra months pay in December so works out a bit more than the UK. His rent for a large, and I mean large studio flat is circa Eur 300 per month and has a tenancy that will probably be for life, this includes everything, heating, electricity and no obscene council tax bill.   He has an annual travel card for the whole city and can walk to an underground station/tram/bus in less than 2 mins. He can get to the airport in 45mins door to door for another 3 or 4 Euros on top of his annual pass.   His food is on par with UK prices, he can see his own doctor he has had for years within a day of ringing, even during the pandemic was available.  He had to have an orthopaedic operation on his foot, took 3 weeks from diagnosis to operation.  At the end of the month he has about 500 Euros to save if he choses.    Also, his pension will be much higher than in the UK and when he becomes a geriatric he will get better treatment. 

This is the the quality of life I would say is what the minimum wage should mean. In the UK this guy would flounder, finding 2/3rds of his pay going to a parasite landlord and the rest on public transport or a compulsory car to get to work. The other quality of life issues, our government has little interest in continuing or improving.   In the UK the min wage would have to be maybe 3 times the current to fulfil this criteria.   

[miguel]

Wow! I'm moving to Vienna! Oh wait . . . . some event stopped me doing that. 

[thecrashingisles]

1 hour ago, pig said:

Its not that ‘cheap Labour’ is irrelevant to the situation, but it’s being used a lot at the moment  as a kind of human shield for having screwed up these connections: understandable as there isn’t really any rational excuse for it.

As a result of current problems we're going to have to invest more in resilience and increase the pay of workers. It was perfectly rational for people to want to create the conditions that would force that to happen.

[Casual-observer]

Evening chaps.

What a lovely weekend. I see remainers on this thread have spent all of it fapping about panic buying. You've only been warning about shortages for the past 7 years (as if it never happened historically....ever) so like a stopped clock you've convinced yourselves you're right. 

Really since enough of you look for it daily like some obsessive train spotting like hobby eventually you'll find it. 

For the more level headed on this forum you may want to refer to the warnings James Goldsmith sounded 30 years ago. What we are seeing is not Brexit ramifications but the inevitable fallout Western nations would inevitably see once the paradigm of linking their labour markets to cheaper lands comes to it's natural conclusion. 

The UK is simply a drug addict for cheap labour and has been at the behest of shareholders against the workers for 30 years. This desperation to continue this may alleviate problems but it won't stop the pain from the next comedown. 

Goldsmith stated eventually western nations/business will be forced to return to a period of stabilisation of improving workers pay which has been a repeated talking point of this forum considering it's bread and butter is regarding average salaries versus house prices.  

As I've repeatedly said rejoining the EU won't get round the main problem facing Europe, which is that East Europes labour market is tapped out and there's no more East Europe's on it's borders to tap into. 

African migration won't help as essentially you're importing on average low IQ skill less migrants with no existing skill set to sell into our job market where even low wages salaries need technical competency. 

Ultimately a lot of chickens are coming home to roost as predicted from those who saw the long term disadvantages of opening up our labour markets 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2021 by Casual-observer