Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[zugzwang]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

They will plan for their own particular patch.

As to the macro I don't disagree but then, probably like you, I expect another financial crash fairly soon.

And of course we'll adopt MMT until the whole system collapses.

At some point the financial system is going to go massively nonlinear again. The seizures in the repo market that forced the Fed to restart its (not)QE program late last year suggest that moment might not be far away.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

6 hours ago, Riedquat said:

Which is why we had a referendum on it.

Incorrect. We had a gamed referendum where one side promised all unicorns to all thickos. And you know that. 

[longgone]

29 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

https://amp.ft.com/content/c80707b2-361d-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4

 

More than 400,000 jobs could be lost in Germany over the next decade as its auto industry shifts towards electric vehicles, according to a government-sanctioned report that underlines the wrenching change facing Europe’s largest economy.

In a worst-case scenario, Germany’s workforce could shrink by almost 1 per cent by 2030 if carmakers such as Volkswagen and Daimler are forced to rely on imports to meet targets for electric vehicle sales. The vast majority of vehicle batteries — the most valuable component of electric cars — are manufactured in Asia.

That's exactly where the uk should have been developing and investing the last decade.

Huge untapped market with millions of devices possible to manufacture for.

 

 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

49 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

At some point the financial system is going to go massively nonlinear again. The seizures in the repo market that forced the Fed to restart its (not)QE program late last year suggest that moment might not be far away.

Yes, and stock gains are really just froth. If I thought I could time it I'd be jumping in, but this feels just like dotcom now and as most of my cash is pension related so it's not agile. Better to line up with cyclical moves not short term manias.

The Dow is only about 10% up from when I sold in GBP terms, and I made similar to that on bonds as they rose. I think the risk reward on stocks is now not there for me. 

At least a 50% chance of a 40% drop! 

[IMHAL]

5 hours ago, crouch said:

That implies you have more knowledge than I - you haven't.

What on eafth are you talking about? You post an article that reveals that business is overwhelmingly pessimistic about Brexit and then use that to try to portray it is increased optimism.....I am simply telling you what the report you posted actually says......hence why you are deluded about the reports actual content. The knowledge you allude to is contained in the report you posted..

You need to take a break from nonsense and try to look at the world through the eye of those who know what is what....eg the CFO's that you so wanted to misrepresent....but now are rowing back from.....stop being disingenuous and try being objective. BREXIT is viewed as a risk, a little less so now, but still a significant risk. It is not viewed as an opportunity...fact..get with the program....

Edited January 13, 2020 by IMHAL

[pig]

4 hours ago, moneyfornothing said:

Good luck .. once we start having polls on rejoin, that should kill this thing once and for all !!

Surely much easier to gradually harmonise with the EU. You send us a bottle of champagne, we send you a can of Spam. You send us a scientist, we'll send you back our Faragists. Gradually negotiate our way back in as nativist boomers die off .

 

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

https://amp.ft.com/content/c80707b2-361d-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4

 

More than 400,000 jobs could be lost in Germany over the next decade as its auto industry shifts towards electric vehicles, according to a government-sanctioned report that underlines the wrenching change facing Europe’s largest economy.

In a worst-case scenario, Germany’s workforce could shrink by almost 1 per cent by 2030 if carmakers such as Volkswagen and Daimler are forced to rely on imports to meet targets for electric vehicle sales. The vast majority of vehicle batteries — the most valuable component of electric cars — are manufactured in Asia.

What's this got to do with Brexit.

Oh you mean Germany getting the world's biggest (by value of production) car plant and attached to that the worlds biggest battery plant, instead of the UK.

Now that's what you call a Brexit dividend, pity it went to Germany.

[GrizzlyDave]

5 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

What's this got to do with Brexit.

Oh you mean Germany getting the world's biggest (by value of production) car plant and attached to that the worlds biggest battery plant, instead of the UK.

Now that's what you call a Brexit dividend, pity it went to Germany.

400,000 job losses doesn’t sound like a win.

[jiltedjen]

I think the 2020’s will be quite a lot of the markets trying to go into a downturn but keep being bailed out by money printing QE 

then once enough time has passed that it’s clear that market falls are permanently off the table it’s then going to be off to the races in a almost decade long bubble. 
 

the only way this market will crash is will a massive insane blow off top, which overrides any of the central bank money printing and QE just from the insanity of it. 

a it’s inevitable when you juice the markets like they have been. I see the market being magnitudes bigger than it is now. 

all the young traders coming of age now are too young to remember 2008, and will now spend most of the decade in a ‘can’t lose’ scenario.

the 2020’s bubble will be massive and the busy will be earth shattering come 2029

 

 

Edited January 14, 2020 by jiltedjen

[crouch]

11 hours ago, zugzwang said:

At some point the financial system is going to go massively nonlinear again. The seizures in the repo market that forced the Fed to restart its (not)QE program late last year suggest that moment might not be far away.

I agree; that is a big red flag.

[IMHAL]

12 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Plus this (there's a podcast too)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/08/how-big-tech-is-dragging-us-towards-the-next-financial-crash

What worries me is Cummings wants to play with the big tech companies for our future. IOW, he's a sympathiser (collaborator?). He's obsessed with establishing a gilded meritocracy of 'deep minds'. I imagine there are plenty of people in the old mining towns who are going to replace their forsaken life prospects by competing with some of the best artificial intelligence experts in the world.

It's not going to end well. Just take this rambling, pseudo-intellectual outpouring of 100% pure confusion. Makes Bladerunner look like a Kuoni holiday.

https://dominiccummings.com/2018/08/08/on-the-referendum-28-some-interesting-stuff-on-ai-ml-with-hopefully-implications-for-post-may-hammond-decisions/

Love this quote

"Vote Leave argued during the referendum that a Leave victory should deliver the huge changes that the public wanted and the UK should make science and technology the focus of a profound process of national renewal."

As if this type of domestic policy depended on Brexit......  and good luck delivering what the public wanted from Brexit....each leaver to get their own personalalised Brexit unicorn through the post....simples. Cummings is the new emperor... then again...he/they have 5 years to deliver a decent economy with significant trade deals to replace trade lost.... I wait patiently...tick tock.

 

Edited January 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[crouch]

9 hours ago, IMHAL said:

What on eafth are you talking about? You post an article that reveals that business is overwhelmingly pessimistic about Brexit and then use that to try to portray it is increased optimism.....I am simply telling you what the report you posted actually says......hence why you are deluded about the reports actual content. The knowledge you allude to is contained in the report you posted..

You need to take a break from nonsense and try to look at the world through the eye of those who know what is what....eg the CFO's that you so wanted to misrepresent....but now are rowing back from.....stop being disingenuous and try being objective. BREXIT is viewed as a risk, a little less so now, but still a significant risk. It is not viewed as an opportunity...fact..get with the program....

What the survey shows is a unprecedented uplift in sentiment since 2017 and that Brexit is now viewed as less of a risk. Also without wishing to state the obvious, always necessary in your case, there is no inconsistency with short term optimism and long term pessimism.

When the long term becomes the short term and things become clearer then that pessimism declines as it has done since 2017 so your much vaunted 66% will much likely be far less in a year or two's time.

All of this is obvious - except to you.

[jonb2]

10 hours ago, longgone said:

That's exactly where the uk should have been developing and investing the last decade.

Huge untapped market with millions of devices possible to manufacture for.

 

 

Not going to happen.

There is nobody, NOBODY in your Tory government with the where-with-all to do anything good for the country. They are useless, self-serving and ignorant. China, with it's government of engineers and scientists, make our lot look like children on their first day in kindergarten.

But it's what the majority voted for apparently.

 

[slawek]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

 

tick tock

[IMHAL]

5 minutes ago, crouch said:

What the survey shows is a unprecedented uplift in sentiment since 2017 and that Brexit is now viewed as less of a risk. Also without wishing to state the obvious, always necessary in your case, there is no inconsistency with short term optimism and long term pessimism.

But that is not the way you portrayed it. Prefering instead to portray it is an increase in optimism (unqualified).

5 minutes ago, crouch said:

When the long term becomes the short term and things become clearer then that pessimism declines as it has done since 2017 so your much vaunted 66% will much likely be far less in a year or two's time.

Crystal balls out again? You read too much into these two data points and create a trend ...it is simply a reaction to the fact that there is a little more certainty... nothing else. Brexit will need to show that it is not a risk and it is an opportunity for this trend to continue..... 

5 minutes ago, crouch said:

All of this is obvious - except to you.

[crouch]

3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

But that is not the way you portrayed it. Prefering instead to portray it is an increase in optimism (unqualified).

Ah, but this was in the report:

"Clarity on the nature and timing of the UK’s formal exit from the EU, if not future trading arrangements, seems to have bolstered CFO spirits. The election of a political party with a commanding parliamentary majority, and an end to the immediate possibility of a radical Labour government, have further reduced political uncertainty."

4 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Crystal balls out again? You read too much into these two data points and create a trend ...it is simply a reaction to the fact that there is a little more certainty... nothing else. Brexit will need to show that it is not a risk and it is an opportunity for this trend to continue....

You read too much into economists who think they can predict thirty years ahead.

[winkie]

21 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

If no one will notice any difference then why are we spending billions leaving?

Things will change over time anyway, it always does......spending billions is worth it for people to have a perceived thought that we are now in control.....no country can work alone, it will always have to work amicably with other nations....like all healthy relationships with another no one party is ever in full and total control, that would be dysfunctional ....."If there is no argument in the house, it means there is an underdog somewhere".?

[zugzwang]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

400,000 job losses doesn’t sound like a win.

Not if you're on the receiving end, obviously. But this is how cycles of technological change work. Either you manage them or they manage you.

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

Ah, but this was in the report:

"Clarity on the nature and timing of the UK’s formal exit from the EU, if not future trading arrangements, seems to have bolstered CFO spirits. The election of a political party with a commanding parliamentary majority, and an end to the immediate possibility of a radical Labour government, have further reduced political uncertainty."

Agree with the report ...but not your unblanced and unqualified summary... thanks for pointing it out..confession is good for your soul. 

Quote

You read too much into economists who think they can predict thirty years ahead.

Those economists simply mirror the views of the CFO's to which report you have kindly provided... they all think Brexit is a risk and have taken the next step and quantified that risk.... whats more, they broadly agree that Brexit is a drag on business and will continue to be  drag on business. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by IMHAL

[crouch]

3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Agree with the report ...but not your unblanced and unqualified summary.

My summary was, as ever, balanced.

3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Those economists simple mirror the views of the CFO's to which report you have kindly provided... they all think Brexit is a risk and have taken the next step and quantified that risk.... whats more, they broadly agree that Brexit is a drag on business and will continue to be  drag on business. 

Ah, so they think Brexit is a risk and are therefore biased in their views and reflect this is their predictions. That's precisely what I would have expected. Thank you for confirming that. As you say they start off thinking Brexit is bad and then predict accordingly; twas ever thus.

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, crouch said:

My summary was, as ever, balanced.

Really, you are being childish now.

1 minute ago, crouch said:

Ah, so they think Brexit is a risk and are therefore biased in their views and reflect this is their predictions. That's precisely what I would have expected. Thank you for confirming that. As you say they start off thinking Brexit is bad and then predict accordingly; twas ever thus.

Well, as pointed out to you earlier, the views of CFO's align (based on the evidence that you yourself have provided)  with those of the economists, to the best of my knowledge they do not share the same house, partners, parents or anything that would suggest that they are not capable of independant thought or of being objective, they all think Brexit is a risk, for reasons that are logical and transparent. There is no concensus that Brexit is an opportunity.... none at all....... you are getting worse.....you need to know when to stop digging.

[crouch]

1 minute ago, IMHAL said:

Well, as pointed out to you earlier, the views of CFO's align (based on the evidence that you yourself have provided)  with those of the economists, to the best of my knowledge they do not share the same house, partners, parents or anything that would suggest that they are not capable of independant thought or of being objective, they all think Brexit is a risk, for reasons that are logical and transparent. There is no concensus that Brexit is an opportunity.... none at all....... you are getting worse.....you need to know when to stop digging.

First comes the conclusion that Brexit is bad. Second comes the prediction that confirms it is bad. What a surprise!

And as to economists and CFOs being independent that's laughable! Groupthink.

You need to know when to stop digging.

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, crouch said:

First comes the conclusion that Brexit is bad. Second comes the prediction that confirms it is bad. What a surprise!

And as to economists and CFOs being independent that's laughable! Groupthink.

You need to know when to stop digging.

It is clear you have decided that there is some kind of conspiracy by all economists, businesses et all to paint Brexit black... I don't entertain this or those who subscribe to it.....without evidence...

[crouch]

8 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

It is clear you have decided that there is some kind of conspiracy by all economists, businesses et all to paint Brexit black... I don't entertain this or those who subscribe to it.....without evidence...

Conspiracy is not the same as groupthink; but you wouldn't know the difference.

[IMHAL]

17 minutes ago, crouch said:

Conspiracy is not the same as groupthink; but you wouldn't know the difference.

Where is the evidence for your claimed groupthink? Where is the evidence that these economists are not thinking independantly? Where is the evidence that the CFO's are incapable of being objective and understanding the risks to their own businesses?

Scratch all that... you are sounding like a nutter......best we leave it there.

Edited January 14, 2020 by IMHAL