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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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2 hours ago, localhero1983 said:

No it's not, the best choice right now would given how our government work would be to Remain rather then perpetuate this con. In order to give the Brexiteers a good juicy bone Theresa May could on announcing that we will remain say what an evil bunch of vindictive s**ts the EU are and rather than have them destroy our country to make a point we will stay for now, because the EU will collapse at some point.

It's a doomed club for scoundrels, that's why we've decided to stay in the club...yeah right.

The ref result has to be reflected. May's deal does enough.

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29 minutes ago, crouch said:

What amazes me is that everybody seems to know what position we'll be in in ten years' time under all the options. "How many people do you think will be killed by the decade of austerity and cuts that would follow a no deal Brexit." Is that a serious question? If it is I admire you because I can't predict next week let alone ten years into the future.

In the 1971 White Paper on EEC entry there were no economic projections because they said that it all depended on how individuals and businesses reacted to the changed circumstances. Are we smarter these days? I don't think so.

Forecasts are not predictions and shouldn't be confused with them. They are the likely outcome based upon today's knowledge of course unexpected things happen so they are always wrong.

However they provide a basis for planning and outcomes are equally likely to be better or worse. People who decry them either don't understand what they are or don't like what they imply.  

In this case the most unlikely outcome you could think of is that after tearing up 40 years worth of trade agreements, deals and strategy things will get better.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, crouch said:

Rubbish. The CAP ignores supply and demand and guarantees high prices.

You're thinking of CAP in the 1980s, a lot has changed since then. Subsidies have largely been decoupled from production and price management, hence the existence of the Single Farm Payment. CAP is still not great in my opinion but if you like market forces it's already heading in the direction you want.

Also, the poorest countries can export as much food as they want into the EU tariff and quota free:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_but_Arms

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15 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

You're thinking of CAP in the 1980s, a lot has changed since then. Subsidies have largely been decoupled from production and price management, hence the existence of the Single Farm Payment. CAP is still not great in my opinion but if you like market forces it's already heading in the direction you want.

Also, the poorest countries can export as much food as they want into the EU tariff and quota free:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_but_Arms

Yes but that does not nullify the point. The CAP is based on high prices and high production. If prices were at World levels less would be produced in the EU and more overseas; the CAP was designed primarily to support small French farmers. Therefore under the CAP less is imported from overseas than would otherwise be the case.

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34 minutes ago, yelims said:

The "old system" exported food out of Ireland while a million people starved on same for India

No ****** of with your lies and delusions of grandeur, the ******ing Empire is dead and the world is better for it.

Who mentioned Empire?

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55 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Bookmarked cheers - I guess the only stable thing we have is a series of lies to review ! Here’s an anecdote.

Met some friends this week, a couple, staunchly conservative, she has some sort of role in the local party, maybe even connections to Westminster.

They talked me through everything,  I politely listened - nothing to add to what’s discussed on here!

What struck me though was a kind of despairing fear. They are still pro-Leave (kind of) but can’t understand why May is wasting precious time with something that they are adamant won’t work.

He has started ‘post-rationalising’ WTO - I think because that’s all he thinks is left. I really don’t think she’s onboard with the idea.

No talk over the series of ‘lies’ that have got us here (and the WTO rationales seemed pretty ropey to me).

Not something I’d push on them in conversation at this point. But that ‘despairing fear’ seemed to me to tacitly acknowledge something has gone badly wrong in principle rather than in execution, along the way.

It’s just that political commitment seems to have compromised their ability to see what their instincts are screaming at them.

 

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4 minutes ago, crouch said:

Yes but that does not nullify the point. The CAP is based on high prices and high production. If prices were at World levels less would be produced in the EU and more overseas; the CAP was designed primarily to support small French farmers. Therefore under the CAP less is imported from overseas than would otherwise be the case.

Sure, but it's worth bearing the direction of travel in mind. CAP is already moving in the direction of market prices for food and subsidies being linked to environmental protection. This is essentially the same as Gove's plan:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/12/gove-hails-plans-to-reward-uk-farmers-for-adopting-green-policies

An EFTA/WTO Brexit UK might (might) get there a bit sooner but the EU is heading that way anyway.

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33 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Forecasts are not predictions and shouldn't be confused with them. They are the likely outcome based upon today's knowledge of course unexpected things happen so they are always wrong.

However they provide a basis for planning and outcomes are equally likely to be better or worse. People who decry them either don't understand what they are or don't like what they imply.  

In this case the most unlikely outcome you could think of is that after tearing up 40 years worth of trade agreements, deals and strategy things will get better.

 

 

I did not use the word predictions nor the word forecast.In any case forecast is a subset of prediction. I neither like nor dislike them; what I am saying is that an unconditional forecast for an economy is not possible. Also you cannot use phrases like "things will get better" - an ordinal forecast - without having a cardinal forecast as a basis for that assertion; it means nothing. I confess I do not know whether things will be better or worse and the only difference between you and I is that I know I don't know whereas you do not.

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2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Sure, but it's worth bearing the direction of travel in mind. CAP is already moving in the direction of market prices for food and subsidies being linked to environmental protection. This is essentially the same as Gove's plan:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/12/gove-hails-plans-to-reward-uk-farmers-for-adopting-green-policies

An EFTA/WTO Brexit UK might (might) get there a bit sooner but the EU is heading that way anyway.

It may be but one of the main problem is that the EU has "constituencies" and any organisation that has those is going to take a long time to get anywhere that might disadvantage those constituencies.

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Just now, crouch said:

It may be but one of the main problem is that the EU has "constituencies" and any organisation that has those is going to take a long time to get anywhere that might disadvantage those constituencies.

The UK also has landowners who are quite happy with picking up subsidies just for owning land.

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3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The UK also has landowners who are quite happy with picking up subsidies just for owning land.

Don't think that's going to change in any Brexit scenario; however, outside of the EU system they are going to have a whole lot less of the legislative fog of war they've thrived in.

Expect a lot more secrecy within future UK legislation to keep filling the pockets of these big land owners... and more legislation to thwart or crush dissent from the little people.

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45 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The UK also has landowners who are quite happy with picking up subsidies just for owning land.

Yes they have been major beneficiaries of the CAP.

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

Yes but that does not nullify the point. The CAP is based on high prices and high production. If prices were at World levels less would be produced in the EU and more overseas; the CAP was designed primarily to support small French farmers. Therefore under the CAP less is imported from overseas than would otherwise be the case.

Do you have any figures on which countries import the most from African, for example? I'd be curious to compare percentages across the globe.

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21 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Do you have any figures on which countries import the most from African, for example? I'd be curious to compare percentages across the globe.

Quote

At the same time, however, the EU remains the world's biggest importer of farm products from developing countries. On average, over the period 2006–2008, the EU has imported €53 billion worth of goods. This is more than the US, Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand combined.[76] This is further encouraged by a preferential market access agreement for products from developing countries. Today, around 71% of the EU's agricultural imports originate from developing countries. The 'Everything but Arms' programme,[77] gives the world's 49 least-developed countries duty-free and quota-free access to the EU market. Under the Economic Partnership Agreements, countries from the African, Caribbean and Pacific group enjoy full duty-free and quota free access.[78]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Agricultural_Policy

Edited by Dorkins

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2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Someone did but in the context of saying we cannot implement elements of the deal during the leaving process. The reality is if they want us to stay they will have to offer the deal again, probably with some sweeteners or as they prefer to say clarifications.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/06/24/joint-statement-uk-referendum/

Quote

As agreed, the “New Settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union”, reached at the European Council on 18-19 February 2016, will now not take effect and ceases to exist. There will be no renegotiation.

If they are going to offer the deal they are leaving it pretty late in the day ...

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2 hours ago, yelims said:

The "old system" exported food out of Ireland while a million people starved on same for India

No ****** of with your lies and delusions of grandeur, the ******ing Empire is dead and the world is better for it.

And how do you think we should feel about Germany? The perpetrators of the worst crimes of mass murder ever? And only a couple of generations ago?

Or do you think we should just keep hating them for evermore?

 

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1 hour ago, cashinmattress said:

Don't think that's going to change in any Brexit scenario; however, outside of the EU system they are going to have a whole lot less of the legislative fog of war they've thrived in.

Expect a lot more secrecy within future UK legislation to keep filling the pockets of these big land owners... and more legislation to thwart or crush dissent from the little people.

Perhaps so, but they've got less places to hide & we have a chance of doing something about it.

One positive result of the present mess is it might engage people in politics a bit more.

 

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

I did not use the word predictions nor the word forecast.In any case forecast is a subset of prediction. I neither like nor dislike them; what I am saying is that an unconditional forecast for an economy is not possible. Also you cannot use phrases like "things will get better" - an ordinal forecast - without having a cardinal forecast as a basis for that assertion; it means nothing. I confess I do not know whether things will be better or worse and the only difference between you and I is that I know I don't know whereas you do not.

This is a public forum so I try to use plain English not the pseudo scientific and rather pompous. language of economic modeling.

As to its limitations,  after having spent many years working with the Treasuries long term economic model I think Ihave a fair idea about them.

Anyway back  in the real word, tearing up 40 years of trade deals, agreements etc. will have negative effects in the short/medium term. In JRMs long term i.e.50 years who knows.

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2 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

This is a public forum so I try to use plain English not the pseudo scientific and rather pompous. language of economic modeling.

As to its limitations,  after having spent many years working with the Treasuries long term economic model I think Ihave a fair idea about them.

Anyway back  in the real word, tearing up 40 years of trade deals, agreements etc. will have negative effects in the short/medium term. In JRMs long term i.e.50 years who knows.

I have never denied that there will be short term, and maybe mid term, deleterious effects; in fact I would expect them. It is is in JRM;s 50 year terms that the matter is to be judged; we have been in the EEC for 45 years. And, over this period, the one to which I am referring we agree on "who knows" which is precisely my point.

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37 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/06/24/joint-statement-uk-referendum/

If they are going to offer the deal they are leaving it pretty late in the day ...

We will have to ask for it, In the context of preparing for or at least considering a second referendum.

Early on after the vote there were credible rumors about the EU being prepared to offer a deal but being told by May that it would be very unhelpful.

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3 minutes ago, crouch said:

I have never denied that there will be short term, and maybe mid term, deleterious effects; in fact I would expect them.

So you rationalise the leave or hard leave option as it will make you fundamentally poorer for the rest of your life?

... because some toff like JRM... or snake oil salesman Nigel... who make their living off of uncertainty...  that they are clearly directly culpable and have massive influences to that effect... says you should do it?

Nobody voted for the privatisation of the UK's national assets by referenda.

Did you live through the 90's as an adult?

If so... do you remember how much power was taken away from the people and trade unions?

Yet here you are stating that you support further erosion of British society?

In time you leavers will have to atone.

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11 minutes ago, crouch said:

I have never denied that there will be short term, and maybe mid term, deleterious effects; in fact I would expect them. It is is in JRM;s 50 year terms that the matter is to be judged; we have been in the EEC for 45 years. And, over this period, the one to which I am referring we agree on "who knows" which is precisely my point.

I guess 50 years makes it far enough away that we can't come after you or jmr if you are wrong. How f'in convenient is that.... which goes a long way to thinking jmr and by extention, yourself are poor snake oil salesmen. 

Do us a favour and and give those poor fkrs who are going to be destroyed by your idiotic 50yrs of destitution a little more plan and less snake oil.

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3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I guess 50 years makes it far enough away that we can't come after you or jmr if you are wrong. How f'in convenient is that.... which goes a long way to thinking jmr and by extention, yourself are poor snake oil salesmen. 

Do us a favour and and give those poor fkrs who are going to be destroyed by your idiotic 50yrs of destitution a little more plan and less snake oil.

Indeed.

Looking to uber rich folk like JRM et al for political insight is like asking Ronald McDonald for nutritional advice.

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38 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Indeed.

Looking to uber rich folk like JRM et al for political insight is like asking Ronald McDonald for nutritional advice.

Lol....

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  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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