Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

4 hours ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

And how do you think we should feel about Germany? The perpetrators of the worst crimes of mass murder ever? And only a couple of generations ago?

Or do you think we should just keep hating them for evermore?

 

Hitler wasn't quite top of the list.

Here is the list of the all time top 10 mass murderers in reverse order, that said if you ignore the actual deaths from fighting in WW2 which was huge, then he slips to probably 5th place. Just shows how many really evil people history has produced.

12. Idi Amin Dada —— 100k-500k (most say 300k) 
11. Benito Amilcare Andrea Mussolini —— >430k 
10. Mengistu Haile Mariam —— 500k 
9. Jean Kambanda —— 800k-1m 
8. Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev —— >1m 
7. Saloth “Pol Pot” Sar —— 1.5m 
6. Genghis Khan —— >1.7m (just 2 cities) 
5. Saddam Hussein Abd al-Majid al-Tikriti —— <2m 
4. Suharto —— 8m + 10k’s of Allied POW’s 
3. Joseph Stalin —— 20m 
2. Adolf Hitler —— 6m (Holocaust) + 42m (European deaths in WWII) 
1. Mao Tse Tung —— 70m Chinese + countless others of the Far East

Edited December 15, 2018 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[pig]

1 hour ago, prozac said:

 

Why do you think this is?

Big caveat - bear in mind it’s my perception.

Two reasons: firstly they were simply (explicitly) concerned the goverment had reached a total impasse with May flogging a dead horse.

I brought up GE/people’s vote but these are non-options to leave voting Tories.

We talked mainly about the mechanics of the situation, but I think they were also starting to have problems with the concept of Leave at some level, the crystallisation of pros and cons and  the negotiation itself not matching expectations. CoVI summary of the list of ‘lies’ seems appropriate to them struggling with a kind of cognitive dissonance.

 

[simvastatin]

9 minutes ago, pig said:

Big caveat - bear in mind it’s my perception.

 he negotiation itself not matching expectations.

them struggling with a kind of cognitive dissonance.

 

Something like this.

[thehowler]

2 hours ago, rollover said:

 I’m sorry but I disagree with you on this. The best choice right now is revoke article 50 and remain.

I agree except...there was a vote.

[grasshopper]

3 hours ago, rollover said:

 I’m sorry but I disagree with you on this. The best choice right now is revoke article 50 and remain.

 

22 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I agree except...there was a vote.

Perhaps, we could apply the rule that was applied in the former Soviet Union. The failings of system was attributed to the bad decision making  and leadership of the former president (usually deceased). Then  business as usual.

It's time to call out former Prime Minster Cameron!

[Sheeple Splinter]

On ‎14‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 12:06, Confusion of VIs said:

...   

The A50 process shaped the "negotiation" from the outset, it was designed by Lord Kerr to put the leaving party in the role of supplicant and has worked as intended. The moment we invoked it we lost any real negotiating power.  

23 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

I thought Lord Kerr was on the UK payroll? ...

23 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So did I. ...

Extremely poor value for money, surely? 

Article 50, so vague that it required the ECJ to rule on whether it could be unilaterally revoked and, just for comparison, ...

Quote

Article 50

• 
• 

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

… ending a mobile phone contract:

Quote

… 

8. Ending the Agreement

1. 8.1 As well as any other rights we have, we can end the Agreement and/or a Related Agreement at any time, with immediate effect if:
   (a) you don't pay Charges when they are due. This includes any deposit we've asked for;
   (b) you break this Agreement and/or a Related Agreement in any other material way and you don't correct the situation within 7 days of us asking you to;
   (c) we reasonably believe that the Service is being used in a way forbidden by paragraph 6, even if you don't know that the Service is being used in such a way;
   (d) you're in breach of paragraphs 6.3 (a)-(e) or you persistently behave in a way that would allow us to bar your SIM Card in accordance with paragraph 7 of this Agreement;
   (e) we reasonably believe that you are infringing or have infringed our Rights or the Rights of a third party;
   (f) you are the subject of a bankruptcy order, or become insolvent, or make any arrangement with or for the benefit of creditors; or
   (g) you refuse to return or unreasonably delay in returning any payment, refund or credit that has been made to you in error or for the incorrect amount.
2. 8.2 This Agreement can be ended by either you or by us giving at least 30 days' Notice (in line with paragraph 19). Unless your statutory rights allow otherwise, you must pay us any outstanding Charges, including the Charges for this notice period.
3. 8.3 Unless otherwise specified, if you end this Agreement during any Minimum Period or we end this Agreement under paragraph 8.1(a)-(e) and (g), you must pay us a fee of no more than each of the Monthly Subscription Charges up to the end of the Minimum Period. If you pay us the fee of no more than each of the Monthly Subscription Charges up to the end of that Minimum Period in a single payment, we may reduce the amount due by a rate determined by us. This doesn't apply if you end the Agreement for the one of reasons in paragraph 8.4 below.
4. 8.4 You can end this Agreement by giving us: Notice (in line with paragraph 19) if:
   (a) we break a material term of this Agreement which completely restricts our ability to provide you with the Service and we don't correct it within 7 days of receiving your complaint;
   (b) we go into liquidation or a receiver or administrator is appointed over our assets;
   (c) we increase our Charges in a way that would allow you to end the Agreement under paragraph 5.4 and/or 5.5; or
   (d) we change the terms of this Agreement to your significant disadvantage (which for the avoidance of doubt shall not include an increase in Charges for Additional Services, or an increase in Charges as set out in paragraphs 5.2, 5.3 or 5.4 (a) and (b)).
5. 8.5 If you end this Agreement and have a credit on your final bill, please go to www.o2.co.uk/finalbillrefund and we'll arrange to have this refunded to you.

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

23 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

...

The view of German politicians is neither here nor there. Before we invoked A50 we had the power to cause enough trouble, delay and disruption to force the EU to negotiate (an Italy +++ approach). Once we invoked A50 we were the supplicant unable to influence events.

I would have far preferred we cause trouble up front and agreed the outcome before invoking A50.

 

Schulz, Martin Schulz, the German politician who just happened to be European Parliament President at the time and said:

Quote

… 

The meeting with May will see the two leaders discuss Brexit as well as security and the future of economic policy in the EU.

But any developed position on the forthcoming Brexit negotiations is unlikely, as the EU's stance is, as he points out, to forgo any negotiations before Britain has formally triggered its exit...

 

or perhaps, Juncker ...

Quote

'No notification, no negotiation': Juncker presses Britain for quick exit and Farage insults MEPs

… can help you remember the reality some 30 months ago?

[Sheeple Splinter]

10 hours ago, yelims said:

Yet another reason to abandon Brexit is not to give loonies on both sides reason to resume killing each other up north 

Nationalism eh?  What are the SNP playing at?

Fortunately, none of the players want a hard border; unfortunately they can't agree on how to do it.

Politicos, eh? 

[copydude]

Well. I see everyone has been busy giving Theresa helpful suggestions today . . . 

Quote

- Tony Blair calls for second referendum - close allies ARE secretly preparing for another public vote (Sky news)

Quote

- Senior Tories tell Theresa May to work with Jeremy Corbyn as only hope to save her Brexit deal (Independent)

 

Quote

Senior Tories urge free vote on second referendum (Observer)

All require some dialogue with Labour and we have no accurate info on Corbyn's positiion other than that he will call a no confidence motion the minute he sees a chance. Even that is open to question, however.  A GE at this time would not be helpful and there would be voter backlash. (Selfish interest vs Public Interest)

On the other hand, helping Mrs May win her vote would also not be popular.

Quote

The S Times is reporting a YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, showing that support for LAB could fall from 36% to 22% if it helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May.

This means that Labour support would drop to its lowest and put the party 3rd behind the Dead Limbs.

Story - Political Betting

In passing, note that reporting on these issues is as unhelpful as ever and The Times innuendo of  'a compromise deal' - as if a negotiated settlement would ever be possible without compromises. Voters however may be immune to this by now.

Quote

By 68% to 11% voters generally didn’t believe that that Corbyn could get a better Brexit deal if he were PM. 

 

[macca13]

17 hours ago, Chunketh said:

I am sure I saw some figures the other day that showed the opposite to this.

Migrants are generally young, fit and healthy and pay more in than they take out.

oh some pro business billionaire newspapers told you people that wash cars, pick fruit, deliver parcels, ride rickshaws, labour on worksites.. etc

All pay huge amounts of tax.. ?

And you believed them.. ?

[copydude]

Give it up, Macca.

Migrants perform a very useful function, living ten to a room in sub-standard housing, thereby protecting the nation's asset values.

[ZeroSumGame]

Quote

May Said to Warn Merkel, Macron Their Brexit Deal Is Almost Dead

Bloomberg.

May warns the European leaders 'their deal' is dead. 

[GeordieAndy]

Hadn't seen this petition but over 130,000 others have who want to leave with no deal:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963

[crouch]

12 hours ago, IMHAL said:

One has to take an educated punt.... your argument seems to preclude this and puts all possible future outcomes as equally probable........ if that is the beedin obvious to you then please feel free to keep it to yourself. I rather go with a reasonable plan based on reasonable assumptions and some sturdy analysis thanks... I'll leave the sorry excuses with no measurable outcomes to those who have no plan and no idea.

One does not have to take an educated punt; one can just admit that one doesn't know.

If one admits one doesn't know how on earth do you conclude that all future possibilities have equal probability? I just don't know.

A reasonable plan based on the probable worst case is sensible - the precautionary principle. But that is a world of difference from predicting Armageddon; a reasonable plan does not require biased and fantasy forecasts into the distant future in order to bolster a wholly specious case to try, unsuccessfully, to prove a point.

[Dorkins]

6 hours ago, macca13 said:

oh some pro business billionaire newspapers told you people that wash cars, pick fruit, deliver parcels, ride rickshaws, labour on worksites.. etc

All pay huge amounts of tax.. ?

And you believed them.. ?

At the STEM company where I work the skilled professionals are about 50/50 immigrants and British and the security guards, porters, cleaners and canteen workers are almost entirely British.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Dorkins

[onlooker]

25 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

At the STEM company where I work the skilled professionals are mostly immigrants and the security guards, porters, cleaners and canteen workers are almost entirely British.

No wonder there are so many British graduates not able to get jobs appropriate for their qualifications.

Right on cue, article from today's Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/dec/16/i-have-a-top-degree-but-im-stuck-washing-dishes

Edited December 16, 2018 by onlooker
added link

[Dorkins]

Just now, onlooker said:

No wonder there are so many British graduates not able to get jobs appropriate for their qualifications.

Depends what your qualification is. It's important to choose your degree subject carefully. The UK probably trains about a third too many graduates and that excess have "qualifications" in very soft subjects like photography, tourism, sports science, wedding planning etc. The labour market needs very few people with those degrees so they will end up in either light manual jobs like retail or low skilled office work. More to do with lack of ability, poor career planning and overexpansion of higher education than immigration.

[copydude]

49 minutes ago, GeordieAndy said:

Hadn't seen this petition but over 130,000 others have who want to leave with no deal:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963

Now, 132,993 signatures. 100,000 was enough.

The rationale appears to be that the EU will be more willing to negotiate once we have left. Like lorries at ports, disruption  travels in both directions.

[onlooker]

1 minute ago, Dorkins said:

Depends what your qualification is. It's important to choose your degree subject carefully. The UK probably trains about a third too many graduates and that excess have "qualifications" in very soft subjects like photography, tourism, sports science, wedding planning etc. The labour market needs very few people with those degrees so they will end up in either light manual jobs like retail or low skilled office work. More to do with lack of ability, poor career planning and overexpansion of higher education than immigration.

While I agree the UK produces too many graduates, and too many in 'soft' subjects, I seem to recall that employment statistics of soft versus hard subjects are actually not so straightforward. Many who graduate in soft subjects are trainable and can attain good jobs, - but only if they can get their first foot on the ladder. If graduates come in from Europe, they will not get that foot on the ladder (see my link above).

Stats for STEM subjects have always suggested that British engineers are put off by low salaries, which must be entirely due to cheap graduate engineer immigrants undercutting them in the job market.

[Dorkins]

14 minutes ago, onlooker said:

Stats for STEM subjects have always suggested that British engineers are put off by low salaries, which must be entirely due to cheap graduate engineer immigrants undercutting them in the job market.

Undercutting relative to what? There is no counterfoil scenario in which the UK has no immigration and high wages for engineers, in that situation the firms and jobs would relocate to where the labour is cheaper. It happens all the time in many industries.

So then the next logical step is to impose capital controls and shut down international trade, and suddenly the UK is an economic powerhouse like North Korea or the DDR.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Dorkins

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, crouch said:

One does not have to take an educated punt; one can just admit that one doesn't know.

If one admits one doesn't know how on earth do you conclude that all future possibilities have equal probability? I just don't know.

A reasonable plan based on the probable worst case is sensible - the precautionary principle. But that is a world of difference from predicting Armageddon; a reasonable plan does not require biased and fantasy forecasts into the distant future in order to bolster a wholly specious case to try, unsuccessfully, to prove a point.

if you don't know the outcome of taking path a or path b then you might as well flip a coin, ie equal probability. If you don't take an educated punt then you are not using all the information at your disposal in selecting a path  you are disadvantaged thereby reducing the probability for a desired outcome.

No one is predicting Armagedon... what is being predicted in the short and medium term for Brexit is various degrees of hit to the economy from mild to quite severe depending on the type of Brexit. 

What is disingenuous is those who suggest that if we take a 50 year time horizon we cannot know what the outcome will be therefore it does not matter that the near and medium term outcomes are bad. Because that argument can be used to justify just about any action and therefore cannot not be used to justify any. 

Edited December 16, 2018 by IMHAL

[simvastatin]

42 minutes ago, onlooker said:

While I agree the UK produces too many graduates, and too many in 'soft' subjects, I seem to recall that employment statistics of soft versus hard subjects are actually not so straightforward. Many who graduate in soft subjects are trainable and can attain good jobs, - but only if they can get their first foot on the ladder. If graduates come in from Europe, they will not get that foot on the ladder (see my link above).

Stats for STEM subjects have always suggested that British engineers are put off by low salaries, which must be entirely due to cheap graduate engineer immigrants undercutting them in the job market.

That is a valid point, if the wages were good more of our kids would go for STEM subjects 

[Dorkins]

16 minutes ago, prozac said:

That is a valid point, if the wages were good more of our kids would go for STEM subjects 

I think the modest wages in STEM are because the money is going into unproductive rent-seeking in the FIRE industry. Maybe when FIRE crashes STEM wages will improve.

[yelims]

1 hour ago, copydude said:

Now, 132,993 signatures. 100,000 was enough.

The rationale appears to be that the EU will be more willing to negotiate once we have left. Like lorries at ports, disruption  travels in both directions.

137k now Putin's boys are busy this morning 

[OnionTerror]

1 hour ago, copydude said:

Now, 132,993 signatures. 100,000 was enough.

The rationale appears to be that the EU will be more willing to negotiate once we have left. Like lorries at ports, disruption  travels in both directions.

Where somehow we'd be in a stronger position, and the EU will come running to us..