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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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12 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

You’re on a roll great find, a must read !

Have to disagree - this is the Guardian at its best, and also for my taste a good balance between reporting and comment.

Its basically slavery. What’s particularly refreshing is how the report makes tangible what shrinking the state and a bonfire of (EU!?) red-tape is all about in reality.

Also how in many poor areas the poor are between a rock and a hard place with xenophobia, however misguided, almost the only option and even so potentially misinterpreted.

Mays ‘go home’ vans completely laughable  on the one hand. On the other hand almost sinister as they seek to benefit from a government created situation - a kind of RW vicious circle.

Sow discord, fertilise it and then reap the votes.

To be fair the left (and I think it’s fair to say  that’s where I’ve ended up) could be accused of focussing too much exclusively on the immorality of xenophobia, whereas articles like this help side-step the symptomatic issue/controversy to shine a light on a causal criminal mess underneath.

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1 hour ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

Not leaving the EU will be catastrophic for Britain and it's people. It means that British democracy will die. It would mean that the people have no control over their lives.

Oh my goodness! Like universal credit isn't 'catastrophic' for Britain's poor????

What about Scotland? Or Northern Ireland? Is it democratic that half of the union clearly didn't want this?

Or that this is not a 'single' issue? It's single most complicated political and legislative democratic exercise ever taken by the UK government.

When in history can you cite a specific example of when 'more' democracy resulted in 'catastrophe'?

And control over our lives? Holy smokes. Lay off the weed and right wing websites.

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1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How many people do you think will be killed by the decade of austerity and cuts that would follow a no deal Brexit. People are dying today because of Brexit's impact on the NHS. The fall in the £ following the votes was equivalent to knocking around £3bn a year off the NHS budget, leading to the cancelation/deferral of dozens of upgrade projects, especially MRI scanners and leaving another 10-20,000 posts unfilled.  

As it is now clear that the promised Brexit cannot be delivered, perhaps its time for the government to admit that. Pig headedly continuing down a route that leads to a deal supported by maybe only 25% of the voters and leaves us a poorer diminished country is not democracy. 

What amazes me is that everybody seems to know what position we'll be in in ten years' time under all the options. "How many people do you think will be killed by the decade of austerity and cuts that would follow a no deal Brexit." Is that a serious question? If it is I admire you because I can't predict next week let alone ten years into the future.

In the 1971 White Paper on EEC entry there were no economic projections because they said that it all depended on how individuals and businesses reacted to the changed circumstances. Are we smarter these days? I don't think so.

 

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12 minutes ago, crouch said:

If we leave on 29 March 2019 and a referendum after that date included a remain option then I doubt it would be remain on a status quo ante basis. Would we retain the various opt outs? would we lose the rebate;?would we still retain permanent exemption from joining the Euro? I'm not sure, the point being that remain now may not be remain in two or three years' time. 

Completely fair, actually it wouldn't be a remain option, it would be rejoin as the UK would have ceased to be an EU member on 30th March 2019 (no MEPs, no Commissioners, no Council seat etc).

Very easy for a new EU member state to avoid joining the euro despite signing the Maastrichy Treaty - just don't join ERM II and you automatically fail the Maastricht criteria and are not allowed to join. This is what Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic etc are doing. None of them have EMU opt-outs and none are heading towards the euro.

A Schengen opt-out should be easy to negotiate as the Republic of Ireland is not in Schengen, so if the UK were to join it that would mean passport control on the border between NI and RoI which neither side wants.

Maybe the rebate is gone, hard to say. The EU27 might offer to restore the rebate in the runup to the UK's second referendum in order to make rejoining an attractive option.

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4 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Oh my goodness! Like universal credit isn't 'catastrophic' for Britain's poor????

What about Scotland? Or Northern Ireland? Is it democratic that half of the union clearly didn't want this?

Or that this is not a 'single' issue? It's single most complicated political and legislative democratic exercise ever taken by the UK government.

When in history can you cite a specific example of when 'more' democracy resulted in 'catastrophe'?

And control over our lives? Holy smokes. Lay off the weed and right wing websites.

The vote was a UK vote not a Scottish or a Northern Irish vote so this is not a valid point. 

"When in history can you cite a specific example of when 'more' democracy resulted in 'catastrophe'?" You've clearly missed the point; you do not vote for catastrophe; you simply vote and that may result in catastrophe; democracy is the process not the result.

There is no logical reason why a democratic vote would not lead to catastophe. We could have a vote on restricting fossil fuels to reduce pollution and illness and if this was rejected (which it probably would be)we could have catastrophe down the road

"And control over our lives? Holy smokes. Lay off the weed and right wing websites." The essence of controlling lives is that you are controlled without realising it; he may be right and you are wrong because, if he is right, you don't realise you are subject to control.

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Just now, crouch said:

What amazes me is that everybody seems to know what position we'll be in in ten years' time under all the options.

You can budget for today, tomorrow and possibly a year into the future; however, when you make material changes to the dynamics of society and economy that creates all manner of problems.

There are only a few who can comprehend the mathematics and define the simulations for such future events.

I'd be more worried about what the people with the money aren't saying.

Tim Whiterprick says it will be great for his business... what about all the other businesses who are saying nowt?

How many could have predicted that the abolition of slavery in the UK would result in the 2nd biggest bailout in UK history?

Or that Suez would greatly hasten the UK's post-empire decline?

The office of PM has the ear of business and the best that the UK can offer in terms of financial, political and economic strategy and modelling, and vice-versa... Yet, armed with that we're showing up to the table and debating from an obviously disadvantaged position.

What we can say is that any uncertainty is NOT good for the citizens of the UK... and that's what Brexit is.

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1 hour ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

" Austerity"??? Try living as a poor African or Pakistani, or anywhere in the 3rd world. That's austerity.

The NHS is being run on the complete & utter fiction that we can all live forever, that everything is curable.

You could spend the entire resources of the NHS ensuring that one person survived for one more day. 

The reality is you have to make choices. We cannot continue to run a society on borrowed money, in or out of the EU. And if you want to see what's going on in order to keep us in our comfortable lifestyle read  Dave Beans' Guardian article.

Austerity my ar$e. All I see is a sh!t load of middle class hypocrisy.

 

What on earth are you on about ?

Here’s an idea, start a thread comparing say British, American and Spanish funding for healthcare - costs and outcomes. 

You could spend your entire debating resource babbling about borrowing, lobbing over populist middle-class vice signalling and the fecking third world but you won’t save an ounce of credibility for any point of view.

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2 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is no EFTA or WTO option, all we have to put on a ballot is Cameron's deal and May's deal.

A referendum on that would be the easiest to sell to Parliament,  it would get Remainers on board and as the ERG would vote against any second ballot their views are irrelevant when it comes to deciding what should be on the paper..   

Didn't the EU ,right after the leave result state that Camerons deal was no longer valid ?

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1 minute ago, cashinmattress said:

That is precisely why Brexit will fail the union.

Oh well.

Depends where we end up I think. Rejoin EU, NI and Scotland probably stay for now. EFTA -> border necessary either in Ireland or the Irish Sea -> NI probably leaves but Scotland might be happy with that amount of Europe. WTO Brexit, NI and Scotland will both be gone in 20 years as it will be clear the English nationalists are fully in charge.

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2 hours ago, thehowler said:

I like your subtle semantic substitution of Cameron's deal for the more contentious, remain...

But Cameron's deal  is more detailed than than just saying remain. In particular it addresses the issue raised by many that we are inevitable drifting toward a closer polical union. Clearly, the Cameron deal says no to this.

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30 minutes ago, pig said:

You’re on a roll great find, a must read !

Have to disagree - this is the Guardian at its best, and also for my taste a good balance between reporting and comment.

Its basically slavery. What’s particularly refreshing is how the report makes tangible what shrinking the state and a bonfire of (EU!?) red-tape is all about in reality.

Also how in many poor areas the poor are between a rock and a hard place with xenophobia, however misguided, almost the only option and even so potentially misinterpreted.

Mays ‘go home’ vans completely laughable  on the one hand. On the other hand almost sinister as they seek to benefit from a government created situation - a kind of RW vicious circle.

Sow discord, fertilise it and then reap the votes.

To be fair the left (and I think it’s fair to say  that’s where I’ve ended up) could be accused of focussing too much exclusively on the immorality of xenophobia, whereas articles like this help side-step the symptomatic issue/controversy to shine a light on a causal criminal mess underneath.

Another good article https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-lies-and-liars-of-brexit/

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10 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

You can budget for today, tomorrow and possibly a year into the future; however, when you make material changes to the dynamics of society and economy that creates all manner of problems.

There are only a few who can comprehend the mathematics and define the simulations for such future events.

I'd be more worried about what the people with the money aren't saying.

Tim Whiterprick says it will be great for his business... what about all the other businesses who are saying nowt?

How many could have predicted that the abolition of slavery in the UK would result in the 2nd biggest bailout in UK history?

Or that Suez would greatly hasten the UK's post-empire decline?

The office of PM has the ear of business and the best that the UK can offer in terms of financial, political and economic strategy and modelling, and vice-versa... Yet, armed with that we're showing up to the table and debating from an obviously disadvantaged position.

What we can say is that any uncertainty is NOT good for the citizens of the UK... and that's what Brexit is.

"There are only a few who can comprehend the mathematics and define the simulations for such future events."

I can refine this. No one can predict the future of the economy, no one.There are no few.

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19 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Do you have a Nationalism Kills version for the 3,500 killed in the Troubles?

Yet another reason to abandon Brexit is not to give loonies on both sides reason to resume killing each other up north 

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-06/u-k-stocks-erase-21st-century-gains-amid-worst-day-since-brexit

 

U.K. Stocks Have Lost All Their 21st Century Gains

 

U.K. stock investors can wave goodbye to index gains of the last 18 years.

The FTSE 100 on Wednesday closed below the level seen at the end of 1999, and extended its declines on Thursday.

 

Well done guys, brexit means poverty pensions

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7 minutes ago, pig said:

What on earth are you on about ?

Here’s an idea, start a thread comparing say British, American and Spanish funding for healthcare - costs and outcomes. 

You could spend your entire debating resource babbling about borrowing, lobbing over populist middle-class vice signalling and the fecking third world but you won’t save an ounce of credibility for any point of view.

And what the hell are you babbling on about?

I didn't bring up NHS funding being affected by Brexit, the OP did. Our entire ability to keep any sort of social spending going is based on borrowing ever increasing amounts. It's unsustainable. "Austerity" is just reality, & if we want a sustainable NHS we're going to have to be realistic about what we want it to do.

Ah yes, the fecking third world that all the remainers seem to care about so much. So much they want to stay in the protectionist EU which keeps poor farmers bring able to sell into our markets.

The UK will never change anything so long as we're in. Once we're out it's up to us.

 

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Theresa could do a deal with the SNP to get her withdrawal agreement through - Second EU referendum at the end of 2020 with Scotland-only questions on independence from the UK conditional on the EU result e.g.

UK-wide question: "What should the UK's future relationship with the European Union be? Rank 1 to 3 in order of preference, 1= most preferred, 3= least preferred

The UK should rejoin the EU

The UK should leave the Customs Union and join EFTA

The UK should leave the Customs Union and leave the Single Market

Scotland only:

If the UK decides to rejoin the EU, should Scotland become an independent country? Yes/No

If the UK decides to leave the Customs Union and join EFTA should Scotland become an independent country? Yes/No

If the UK decides to leave the Customs Union and leave the Single Market should Scotland become an independent country? Yes/No

 

Or to keep it simple maybe just have a second Scottish independence referendum some defined period e.g. 6 months after the second EU one.

Edit: actually I realise you'd never do it the combined referendum way as Scottish nationalists would intentionally vote for WTO Brexit in order to trigger the condition most likely to result in Scottish independence knowing that Scotland wouldn't be the ones to go through that WTO Brexit. Would be quite entertaining for them though, chuck a political hand grenade through England's window and then escape safely into the EU to watch from a distance.

Edited by Dorkins

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14 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

You can budget for today, tomorrow and possibly a year into the future; however, when you make material changes to the dynamics of society and economy that creates all manner of problems.

There are only a few who can comprehend the mathematics and define the simulations for such future events.

I'd be more worried about what the people with the money aren't saying.

Tim Whiterprick says it will be great for his business... what about all the other businesses who are saying nowt?

How many could have predicted that the abolition of slavery in the UK would result in the 2nd biggest bailout in UK history?

Or that Suez would greatly hasten the UK's post-empire decline?

The office of PM has the ear of business and the best that the UK can offer in terms of financial, political and economic strategy and modelling, and vice-versa... Yet, armed with that we're showing up to the table and debating from an obviously disadvantaged position.

What we can say is that any uncertainty is NOT good for the citizens of the UK... and that's what Brexit is.

"There are only a few who can comprehend the mathematics and define the simulations for such future events." I can refine this. There is no one who can predict the future, no one.

"What we can say is that any uncertainty is NOT good for the citizens of the UK... and that's what Brexit is."

Uncertainty is the existential condition of the human race so it is hardly news. Brexit is for the long term. If you were made an offer which would disrupt your life for two years and was a gamble but if it came off you would be in a better position for the next forty years would you take it? You may not; many would. You paint Brexit as a disaster but you have no basis for saying this; you do not know.

Also Brexit is not about " the money"' most voted leave on other grounds.

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2 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Ah yes, the fecking third world that all the remainers seem to care about so much. So much they want to stay in the protectionist EU which keeps poor farmers bring able to sell into our markets.

That's funny, I bought a melon from Brazil in Morrisons the other day, wonder how they smuggled that one past the EU Commie Nazi border guards.

Have you tried looking at where the fruit and veg in the supermarket comes from?

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2 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Ah yes, the fecking third world that all the remainers seem to care about so much. So much they want to stay in the protectionist EU which keeps poor farmers bring able to sell into our markets.

More Brexiteer lies, ******ing again and again, what is it with this pathological need to lie?

3rd world farmers can import food (especially fruit/veg) into EU tarrif free, hell EU has FTA with most of Africa, SA and Carribean

Something that UK will lose with a no deal brexit and will take decades to renegotiate 

 

EU_free_trade_agreements.PNG

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36 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

Didn't the EU ,right after the leave result state that Camerons deal was no longer valid ?

Someone did but in the context of saying we cannot implement elements of the deal during the leaving process. The reality is if they want us to stay they will have to offer the deal again, probably with some sweeteners or as they prefer to say clarifications.

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39 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

And what the hell are you babbling on about?

I didn't bring up NHS funding being affected by Brexit, the OP did. Our entire ability to keep any sort of social spending going is based on borrowing ever increasing amounts. It's unsustainable. "Austerity" is just reality, & if we want a sustainable NHS we're going to have to be realistic about what we want it to do.

Ah yes, the fecking third world that all the remainers seem to care about so much. So much they want to stay in the protectionist EU which keeps poor farmers bring able to sell into our markets.

The UK will never change anything so long as we're in. Once we're out it's up to us.

 

Are you saying that the EU is preventing us making tough decisions about how we fund the NHS?

Your last sentence seems to be saying that.

Edited by IMHAL

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12 minutes ago, yelims said:

More Brexiteer lies, ******ing again and again, what is it with this pathological need to lie?

3rd world farmers can import food (especially fruit/veg) into EU tarrif free, hell EU has FTA with most of Africa, SA and Carribean

Something that UK will lose with a no deal brexit and will take decades to renegotiate 

 

EU_free_trade_agreements.PNG

Rubbish. The CAP ignores supply and demand and guarantees high prices. It also results in over production much of which is dumped in the third world undermining their ability to compete.

Our old system was much better; we imported food at World prices and then subsidies agricultural sectors as necessary for strategic or community reasons.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

Rubbish. The CAP ignores supply and demand and guarantees high prices. It also results in over production much of which is dumped in the third world undermining their ability to compete.

Our old system was much better; we imported food at World prices and then subsidies agricultural sectors as necessary for strategic or community reasons.

The "old system" exported food out of Ireland while a million people starved on same for India

No ****** of with your lies and delusions of grandeur, the ******ing Empire is dead and the world is better for it.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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