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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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11 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

Many thanks Dave. Confirms in detail what one could only vaguely suspect.

Exploitation has always been there, since man first walked the earth. How to reduce it to the lowest possible amount is the question.

 

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2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

A second referendum with all 3 options gets you past the vagueness and it means party leaders don't have to settle on a defined Brexit endpoint which might cause party discipline problems. I can see benefits to setting a future date for a 2nd referendum with 3 options soon to at least set some direction but it's still much too soon to actually have it, both voters and politicians have a lot to process and many have got themselves stuck in quite deep mental ruts. A couple of years is needed to help people get their heads together.

The voting process and campaign would take up to a year anyway...

I'm not sure a majority of Brits can face going through it again. Referendum on having a referendum?

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45 minutes ago, copydude said:

Could market panic intervene, scuppering all best-laid plans, once the spectre of no deal becomes reality? 

Pound tanking to 99c . . . whatever. I imagine Art 50 might get pulled rather fast in this scenario?

The pound is surely only worth 99c, if that. That has arguably been the case for many years.

If there's a 2nd ref I will only partake if joining the Euro is on the ballot. Which it won't be. I never saw the point of being a half member. My second option would be out but doubt I could quite go there.

We are incapable of selecting leaders who have the ability and integrity to run an economy remotely effectively.

 

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10 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Mays deal has effectively been rejected so we get a 'WTO' leave (no deal) and no transition period in March 2019. 

May's deal is basically the minimum needed to deliver on the 2016 referendum which the Commons voted for. I think after a bit of toys out of the pram the Commons will pass it with a stuck out bottom lip realising that they are gambling with the UK's democracy if they don't enact referendum results.

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1 minute ago, Bluestone59 said:

The pound is surely only worth 99c, if that. That has arguably been the case for many years.

Nah, it's undervalued, check out the BigMac index...

 

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3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

May's deal is basically the minimum needed to deliver on the 2016 referendum which the Commons voted for. I think after a bit of toys out of the pram the Commons will pass it with a stuck out bottom lip realising that they are gambling with the UK's democracy if they don't enact referendum results.

Still the best choice right now.

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1 hour ago, copydude said:

Out of interest, what on earth would be the point of keeping it a secret?

To stop the EU finding out. I kid you not this was one of the reasons given.

The real reason is probably that it would have completely undermined the governments messages around Brexit. Remember in the early days how confident they were of achieving a great Brexit "they need us more than we need them", "the German car industry will demand the EU give us what we want", " we will divide and rule, doing deals with individual states", "the easiest deal in history", "a deal at least as good as being in the single market", etc, etc.

All complete b@llocks as making the gaming results public would have revealed. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Still the best choice right now.

It was funny watching Jess Phillips MP in the Commons the other day asking the PM if she really thought she would be able to get her withdrawal agreement through the Commons. Full on toys out of the pram moment.

Plus whichever berk it was who grabbed the golden mace to stop the debate. They should replace it with a huge golden baby's dummy.

 

Edited by Dorkins

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1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Given the bitterness and chaos over the last 30 months I'm amazed that some posters think anything about a 2nd ref would be straightforward.

How are you going to offer anything 'crystal clear' to voters on EFTA and WTO when you have no idea what form these routes will take over coming years, whether they're deffo an option, and after a majority of MPs have demonstrated that they are not going to vote for any chance of us going to WTO?

There is no EFTA or WTO option, all we have to put on a ballot is Cameron's deal and May's deal.

A referendum on that would be the easiest to sell to Parliament,  it would get Remainers on board and as the ERG would vote against any second ballot their views are irrelevant when it comes to deciding what should be on the paper..   

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1 minute ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is no EFTA or WTO option, all we have to put on a ballot is Cameron's deal and May's deal.

Two different timescales though. May's deal would start soon and is just for the next 2-3 years, EFTA and WTO are Brexit endpoints for 2022 onwards.

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4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

There is no EFTA or WTO option, all we have to put on a ballot is Cameron's deal and May's deal.

A referendum on that would be the easiest to sell to Parliament,  it would get Remainers on board and as the ERG would vote against any second ballot their views are irrelevant when it comes to deciding what should be on the paper..   

I like your subtle semantic substitution of Cameron's deal for the more contentious, remain...

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3 hours ago, copydude said:

Really, we are going nowhere now after a period of circular travel. 

I think it's time for Mrs M to resign, to admit that the Brexit project has failed and to rescind Art 50. Which does not preclude having another go in time. A 2nd Ref won't cut it because the subject itself isn't binary . . . there isn't a yes/no answer to such a multi-faceted issue with so many variables.

I think this would be more responsible than pushing the country towards the no deal precipice. 

Not leaving the EU will be catastrophic for Britain and it's people. It means that British democracy will die. It would mean that the people have no control over their lives. Are you aware that French people are being killed right now by the state? One guy had his entire hand blown clean off. The French police are using tear gas and grenades to keep their people's aspirations in check.

When Scotland had it's independence vote, no one was killed, there was no violence of any kind. The same for the Brexit referendum too. This is because people know that they are taking part in a democratic process and their vote is counted. The decision is enacted. Without this democracy, there is only violence.

The EU is an anti-democratic self interested and now increasingly violent organisation. It is a tyranny and it has no place in the lives of decent people. I think that a future dark age of tyranny is possible, Britain has had peace for a long time. People forget.

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13 minutes ago, Bluestone59 said:

The pound is surely only worth 99c, if that. That has arguably been the case for many years.

If there's a 2nd ref I will only partake if joining the Euro is on the ballot. Which it won't be. I never saw the point of being a half member. My second option would be out but doubt I could quite go there.

We are incapable of selecting leaders who have the ability and integrity to run an economy remotely effectively.

 

On current figures the pound is thought to be undervalued, it is the long term expectation that Brexit will be bad for the economy that is keeping it at current levels.

Join Euro or out, that is a pretty unusual position to hold.

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7 minutes ago, thehowler said:

I like your subtle semantic substitution of Cameron's deal for the more contentious, remain...

Language is important, although in this case it runs the risk of degenerating into a referendum on who was our most disastrous PM.  

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8 minutes ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

Not leaving the EU will be catastrophic for Britain and it's people. It means that British democracy will die. It would mean that the people have no control over their lives. Are you aware that French people are being killed right now by the state? One guy had his entire hand blown clean off. The French police are using tear gas and grenades to keep their people's aspirations in check.

When Scotland had it's independence vote, no one was killed, there was no violence of any kind. The same for the Brexit referendum too. This is because people know that they are taking part in a democratic process and their vote is counted. The decision is enacted. Without this democracy, there is only violence.

The EU is an anti-democratic self interested and now increasingly violent organisation. It is a tyranny and it has no place in the lives of decent people. I think that a future dark age of tyranny is possible, Britain has had peace for a long time. People forget.

How many people do you think will be killed by the decade of austerity and cuts that would follow a no deal Brexit. People are dying today because of Brexit's impact on the NHS. The fall in the £ following the votes was equivalent to knocking around £3bn a year off the NHS budget, leading to the cancelation/deferral of dozens of upgrade projects, especially MRI scanners and leaving another 10-20,000 posts unfilled.  

As it is now clear that the promised Brexit cannot be delivered, perhaps its time for the government to admit that. Pig headedly continuing down a route that leads to a deal supported by maybe only 25% of the voters and leaves us a poorer diminished country is not democracy. 

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20 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Language is important, although in this case it runs the risk of degenerating into a referendum on who was our most disastrous PM.

Our finest invention.

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4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How many people do you think will be killed by the decade of austerity and cuts that would follow a no deal Brexit. People are dying today because of Brexit's impact on the NHS. The fall in the £ following the votes was equivalent to knocking around £3bn a year off the NHS budget, leading to the cancelation/deferral of dozens of upgrade projects, especially MRI scanners and leaving another 10-20,000 posts unfilled.  

As it is now clear that the promised Brexit cannot be delivered, perhaps its time for the government to admit that. Pig headedly continuing down a route that leads to a deal supported by maybe only 25% of the voters and leaves us a poorer diminished country is not democracy. 

I think that reducing government spending will make our lives better, not worse. Where does the government get it's money from? A government spending cut is a citizen's spending increase.

As I said, the French government is killing it's citizens in the street. Using the state's monopoly on violence.

The NHS will never have enough money because it is free at the point of use. If I opened a restaurant giving away free food, the restaurant will never have enough money either.

No specific Brexit was ever promised. The vote was do we leave the European Union, yes or no? It said nothing about anything else. By not having the pay our annual contribution, we could indeed spend on the NHS instead. (It would still not have enough money though by definition). There is no legal obligation to pay the EU anything.

A clean brexit can be delivered, in fact it is the default position for March 29th 2019. A clean brexit is what was advertised in the leaflet that the government sent to every household. The leave campaign won by 52%. Support for a clean brexit is much higher than 25%.

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50 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Still the best choice right now.

No it's not, the best choice right now would given how our government work would be to Remain rather then perpetuate this con. In order to give the Brexiteers a good juicy bone Theresa May could on announcing that we will remain say what an evil bunch of vindictive s**ts the EU are and rather than have them destroy our country to make a point we will stay for now, because the EU will collapse at some point.

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5 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

How many people do you think will be killed by the decade of austerity and cuts that would follow a no deal Brexit. People are dying today because of Brexit's impact on the NHS. The fall in the £ following the votes was equivalent to knocking around £3bn a year off the NHS budget, leading to the cancelation/deferral of dozens of upgrade projects, especially MRI scanners and leaving another 10-20,000 posts unfilled.  

As it is now clear that the promised Brexit cannot be delivered, perhaps its time for the government to admit that. Pig headedly continuing down a route that leads to a deal supported by maybe only 25% of the voters and leaves us a poorer diminished country is not democracy. 

" Austerity"??? Try living as a poor African or Pakistani, or anywhere in the 3rd world. That's austerity.

The NHS is being run on the complete & utter fiction that we can all live forever, that everything is curable.

You could spend the entire resources of the NHS ensuring that one person survived for one more day. 

The reality is you have to make choices. We cannot continue to run a society on borrowed money, in or out of the EU. And if you want to see what's going on in order to keep us in our comfortable lifestyle read  Dave Beans' Guardian article.

Austerity my ar$e. All I see is a sh!t load of middle class hypocrisy.

 

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22 minutes ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

I think that reducing government spending will make our lives better, not worse. Where does the government get it's money from? A government spending cut is a citizen's spending increase.

When the economy shrinks the government will need to take a higher proportion of it and cut spending. 

22 minutes ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

As I said, the French government is killing it's citizens in the street. Using the state's monopoly on violence.

So the French government issued a kill order did it - evidence please.

22 minutes ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

The NHS will never have enough money because it is free at the point of use. If I opened a restaurant giving away free food, the restaurant will never have enough money either.

The NHS is badly underfunded making it impossible to deliver the quality of service expected in a developed country.  Raise the spending to the level of other developed nations and you will get a comparable service.      

22 minutes ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

No specific Brexit was ever promised. The vote was do we leave the European Union, yes or no? It said nothing about anything else. By not having the pay our annual contribution, we could indeed spend on the NHS instead. (It would still not have enough money though by definition). There is no legal obligation to pay the EU anything.

We have already lost between 2-3% of GDP because of the vote (as admitted by the OBR and BoE) around 5 times our contribution. There is no Brexit dividend just a big bill.

The ONS says we do owe the £39bn (actually it will turn out to be £45-50bn) so it will be paid deal or no deal. The UK does not, and could not afford to, default on its debts. 

22 minutes ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

A clean brexit can be delivered, in fact it is the default position for March 29th 2019. A clean brexit is what was advertised in the leaflet that the government sent to every household. The leave campaign won by 52%. Support for a clean brexit is much higher than 25%.

Clean Brexit is a completely meaningless statement only used by people who either have no idea what they are talking about or are dishonest.  Do you mean immediately removing the UK from its role in all the EU supply chains and provision of financial services to the EU, if not you cannot have anything like a "clean" Brexit. 

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27 minutes ago, Cosmic Lunatic Asylum said:

Sickening.

How many other forums do you and 'howler' perform your narrative control attempts on?

Just this one for me. Why would anyone bother with more than one. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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2 hours ago, Dorkins said:

I think the UK should leave the EU at the end of March 2019 in order to respect the result of the 2016 referendum. It is really the least the MPs who voted to hold a referendum in the first place can do. Then the UK will have 2-3 years until the end of the transition period to prepare for all 3 eventualities. It could start talking to EFTA, it could begin logistical preparations for a WTO Brexit and it could talk to the EU about the terms of rejoining e.g. Schengen and the rebate.

Maybe May could announce fairly soon that if the UK leaves according to the withdrawal agreement in March 2019 there will be a 3 way referendum at the end of 2020 and that in the meantime preparations will begin for all 3 outcomes and she wants to have a national debate on which of these the final endpoint for Brexit should be. It might be a way to get people to start lifting their eyes from the March 2019 deadline and start thinking about what comes next.

Yes but that's the problem. If we leave on 29 March 2019 and a referendum after that date included a remain option then I doubt it would be remain on a status quo ante basis. Would we retain the various opt outs? would we lose the rebate;?would we still retain permanent exemption from joining the Euro? I'm not sure, the point being that remain now may not be remain in two or three years' time. 

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37 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

" Austerity"??? Try living as a poor African or Pakistani, or anywhere in the 3rd world. That's austerity.

Not sure how this is relevant to the UK

37 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

The NHS is being run on the complete & utter fiction that we can all live forever, that everything is curable.

You could spend the entire resources of the NHS ensuring that one person survived for one more day. 

The NHS now cannot even routinely provide a safe level of basic services.  

37 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

The reality is you have to make choices. We cannot continue to run a society on borrowed money, in or out of the EU. And if you want to see what's going on in order to keep us in our comfortable lifestyle read  Dave Beans' Guardian article.

We are already borrowing much more because of Brexit.

37 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

Austerity my ar$e. All I see is a sh!t load of middle class hypocrisy.

To sum up everything is sh1t so lets do something that will make it worse? 

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  • 241 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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