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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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10 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Third country status, being outside the SM is a default.  If we dont want to be a member of it, then thats what you get.  They are not going to harmonise for a third country.  There is no Canada++++++

I'm not arguing otherwise. I'm just stating that  our stance has been at odds with the reality all along. And now we claim we can't leave because we are ill-prepared. Surely if we intended to leave, preparation should have been number one on the administration's to-do list. What went wrong? Simple: they chose a remainer to prepare us for leaving.It's like choosing Chamberlain to prepare us for war. Oops.

Edited by Sledgehead

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1 hour ago, Bear Hug said:

Teresa looks super incompetent.  I don't buy it.

My most recent impression of the brexit circus is that Theresa still wants to remain but needs to put up a show to keep brexiters happy.

This is fine with me.

The bad news is that Theresa May is super incompetent.

She has screwed up in every job she has had. Her only real skill was in always making sure someone else carried the can. That is much harder when you are PM.

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Just now, Sledgehead said:

I'm not arguing otherwise. I'm just stating that  our stance has been at odds with the reality all along. And now we claim we can't leave because we are ill-prepared. Surely if we intended to leave, preparation should have been number one on the administration's to-do list. The problem: they chose remainer to prepare us for leaving. Oops.

Righto!  

There was always a big push from the day after the vote to enact A50, and even to retract the 1972 European Communities Act.  The was no plan for a reason.  Many on the Leave side wanted to make it as ambiguous as possible, so not to alienate any of their base.  The document from HM Government - Alternatives to EU membership was ignored, and Cameron attempted to scare the electorate to vote remain.  It all backfired, and we are where we are...  

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1 hour ago, IMHAL said:

It appear we can get by on bravado and used car sales bluster......in which case we should make spivving a compulsory subject at school. 

There was a cracking programme on BBC4 (I think) about animated films in the UK. Superbly creative, inventive stuff. Men (& women) in sheds.

THAT's the way forward.

 

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5 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

I'm not arguing otherwise. I'm just stating that  our stance has been at odds with the reality all along. And now we claim we can't leave because we are ill-prepared. Surely if we intended to leave, preparation should have been number one on the administration's to-do list. What went wrong? Simple: they chose a remainer to prepare us for leaving.It'se choosing Chamberlain to prepare us for war. Oops.

Almost every trade expert said it would take 5-10 years to prepare to leave but as that was politically unacceptable they were ignored.

They choose a Remainer because the Brexiteers proved to be an incompetent bunch of back stabbers and fantasists. It would have been far better to have had a competent Leaver as PM but there wasn't one available.

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24 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Actually we wrote the rules, A50 was created at the request of the UK government and largely written by Lord Kerr.

 

You mean the same Lord Kerr, who, when drafting A50, was secretary-general of the European Convention?

I think that makes him a European. Either that or there is no such thing as a European. You choose.

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17 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Almost every trade expert said it would take 5-10 years to prepare to leave but as that was politically unacceptable they were ignored.

They choose a Remainer because the Brexiteers proved to be an incompetent bunch of back stabbers and fantasists. It would have been far better to have had a competent Leaver as PM but there wasn't one available.

It's hard to argue with any of that.

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4 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

1. We've disagreed on these points upthread WRT EU citizen FoM already i.e. socio-economic factors, accession countries & third country migrants gaining EU citizenship.  Do you have any thoughts on the organised, Serbian/Iranian people trafficking throughout Europe ? 

2. Have you based that on information such as this?

3. I disagree again but do you think, Merkel has pondered over that phrase?

4. Agreed, imagine if many of the threads hereabouts were proven correct?

1. We can wait and see, my bet made straight after the vote is it will be in rough balance by 2022.

2. In part but also from outsourcing an IT function to Warsaw, I was there last week overseeing its expansion. The quality of life for the people we have employed is far beyond what they could expect working in London; and the local government is bending over backwards to help firms setup there. Despite out expansion only adding another 5 posts we were appointed a government helper to assist with ironing out any problems we encountered.    

3 Probably, but did she really have a choice. The refugees were coming whatever she said.  

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22 minutes ago, ****-eyed octopus said:

There was a cracking programme on BBC4 (I think) about animated films in the UK. Superbly creative, inventive stuff. Men (& women) in sheds.

THAT's the way forward.

 

I think you have a point there. The one thing we lack are the sheds, and unfettered population expansion has done nothing to help that. Why sit in a shed and fettle when you can convert it into accomodation and let it for a nice little earner? I often think that American's may well be less inventive than we are, but they win out with the size of their sheds.

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18 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

You mean the same Lord Kerr, who, when drafting A50, was secretary-general of the European Convention?

I think that makes him a European. Either that or there is no such thing as a European. You choose.

We are all Europeans but that doesn't alter the fact that A50 was created at the behest of the UK government. 

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11 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

We are all Europeans but that doesn't alter the fact that A50 was created at the behest of the UK government. 

Creating a chemical weapons convention doesn't mean you actually approve of conventional weapons.

Actually, scratch that. I wrote it and even I can see it's irritatingly enigmatic.

😁

What I should have said was that the British people have been blissfully unaware of all that has been done in their name wrt Europe. We are either a sovereign nation or none at all. As such, now the people have spoken, I see no reason why we should be bound by a bunch of rules agreed behind our backs. As for saying it was the UK government that came up with it, well, that's hardly a great endorsement given:

a) nothing existed beforehand;

b) this was a government engaged in the EU project, and thus "European".

Edited by Sledgehead

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16 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

Creating a chemical weapons convention doesn't mean you actually approve of conventional weapons.

Actually, scratch that. I wrote it and even I can see it's irritatingly enigmatic. 

😁

What I should have said was that the British people have been blissfully unaware of all that has been done in their name wrt Europe. We are either a sovereign nation or none at all. As such, now the people have spoken, I see no reason why we should be bound by a bunch of rules agreed behind our backs. As for saying it was the UK government that came up with it, well, that's hardly a great endorsement given:

a) nothing existed beforehand;

b) this was a government engaged in the EU project, and thus "European".

Of course they are blissfully aware, most have no interest in the workings of government. 

The idea that we will be more sovereign outside the EU is already being proven false. True sovereignty is the ability to influence events, as must be becoming apparent, outside of the EU we will be a less sovereign rule taker.    

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11 hours ago, crouch said:

The DUP should pull the plug on May. 

What happens next? Maybe a vote of confidence leading to a GE. If Labour gets in the fun will really start because they have no coherent policy on Brexit at all and are just as split as the Tories. Corbyn wants out as the rules on state aid and the Growth and Stability Pact would cramp his style mightily. 

 

 

11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The state aid rules only prevent using it to manipulate the market, the WTO has pretty similar rules. 

Indeed, as you know, the EU is a rule taker from WTO, WCO, UNECE etc. The same rules the UK would have to follow if it 

declines to sign the WA/PD.

Going back to JLR's announcement to shed 400 agency workers, I don't recall the €125m Slovakian state aid being mentioned...

Quote

The European Commission has concluded that Slovakia's €125 million investment aid to Jaguar Land Rover is in line with EU State aid rules. The aid will contribute to the development of the region of Nitra, without unduly distorting competition in the Single Market...

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6023_en.htm

… by any of the politicos.

We discussed Alstom and state aid upthread and this is another approval...

Quote

State aid: Commission approves EUR 15.2 million in aid to ALSTOM and the RATP for the development of a new generation of automatic metros

The European Commission has decided that aid granted by France to ALSTOM and the Régie Autonome des Transports Parisiens (RATP) – through their joint subsidiary METROLAB – for the implementation of the research and development (R&D) project Métro du Futur ('Metro of the Future') was in line with EU State aid rules. The project aims to develop a fourth-generation automated metro system, i.e. one which is 'fully automatic' and driverless. The aid addresses a genuine market failure without giving rise to an undue distortion of competition.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-1128_en.htm

… what do you think the reasons given in support of the approval?

The Siemens - Alstom merger is currently under review. ORR object:

Quote

… ORR chief executive Joanna Whittington said: “Competition in the supply chains which support Great Britain’s railway is essential if passengers and taxpayers are to receive a high quality service at an efficient cost...

 

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11 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Nothing to do with the civil service, it is something you will learn on any decent business negotiation course.

You will also learn that the outcome of most negotiations is decided long before the negotiators enter the room. Their negotiators main role is to go through the process without making any mistakes, in which case the outcome will reflect the balance of power between the two parties.   

The A50 process shaped the "negotiation" from the outset, it was designed by Lord Kerr to put the leaving party in the role of supplicant and has worked as intended. The moment we invoked it we lost any real negotiating power.  

I thought Lord Kerr was on the UK payroll?

Memory fail on events around the invocation...

Quote

Schulz in London: "No negotiation without notification"

European Parliament President Martin Schulz will again re-state his "hard line" approach on the upcoming Brexit talks when he meets Theresa May on Thursday...

… But any developed position on the forthcoming Brexit negotiations is unlikely, as the EU's stance is, as he points out, to forgo any negotiations before Britain has formally triggered its exit...

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

 

Indeed, as you know, the EU is a rule taker from WTO, WCO, UNECE etc. The same rules the UK would have to follow if it 

declines to sign the WA/PD.

Going back to JLR's announcement to shed 400 agency workers, I don't recall the €125m Slovakian state aid being mentioned...

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6023_en.htm

… by any of the politicos.

We discussed Alstom and state aid upthread and this is another approval...

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-1128_en.htm

… what do you think the reasons given in support of the approval?

The Siemens - Alstom merger is currently under review. ORR object:

 

The EU/WTO rules on state aid are pretty uncontroversial, they aim to avoid long term unfair competition. Something that Jeremy Corbyn may not like but leaving the EU won't change that.

The rest of Europe, including Germany gives several times as much state aid to companies as the UK does. The reason we don't give more is because our government doesn't want to; and as usual it hides behind alleged EU rules when declining aid proves unpopular. 

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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13 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

I thought Lord Kerr was on the UK payroll?

Memory fail on events around the invocation...

 

So did I.

On whose part? not mine.

The view of German politicians is neither here nor there. Before we invoked A50 we had the power to cause enough trouble, delay and disruption to force the EU to negotiate (an Italy +++ approach). Once we invoked A50 we were the supplicant unable to influence events.

I would have far preferred we cause trouble up front and agreed the outcome before invoking A50.

 

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On hindsight the EU may have doomed itself by its Eastern expansion - it led to one of its major members getting into a painful ejection from the Union, had a role to play in the Ukraine civil war/annexation, and helped to launch Neo-Fascist movements into the mainstream.

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6 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

So did I.

On whose part? not mine.

The view of German politicians is neither here nor there. Before we invoked A50 we had the power to cause enough trouble, delay and disruption to force the EU to negotiate (an Italy +++ approach). Once we invoked A50 we were the supplicant unable to influence events.

I would have far preferred we cause trouble up front and agreed the outcome before invoking A50.

 

Now that I do agree with, a botched negotiation, and yet another reason to give the people a vote on where they would like to go from here.

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10 hours ago, thehowler said:

And...are you saying I'm wrong for wanting to know how the parties will Brexit?

The Tories are a farce. But you seem to also endorse the Labour BS dithering.

I for one would like to know what Corbyn wants from Brexit.

You can want to know, but Brexit is a Tory plot and Labour have to do and say nothing.

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10 hours ago, thehowler said:

Labour are riven on a 2nd ref...all this delay BS from Labour might truthfully better be described as just not wanting to have one.

I really hope nobody on this board is still thinking Labour are going to save your 2nd ref asses?

 

A GE might change the parliamentary arithmetic . . . which in turn may move everyone on from the current stalemate.

I don't think it's likely to provide any more consensus. 

Corbyn's plan appears to me 'softer' than May's . . . but Labour has been ambiguous on many issues. His polled 'satisfaction ratings' do not appear to be any higher or less volatile than those of T May. And the fault lines within the Labour party haven't been tested.

Really, we are going nowhere now after a period of circular travel. 

I think it's time for Mrs M to resign, to admit that the Brexit project has failed and to rescind Art 50. Which does not preclude having another go in time. A 2nd Ref won't cut it because the subject itself isn't binary . . . there isn't a yes/no answer to such a multi-faceted issue with so many variables.

I think this would be more responsible than pushing the country towards the no deal precipice. 

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29 minutes ago, copydude said:

A 2nd Ref won't cut it because the subject itself isn't binary . . . there isn't a yes/no answer to such a multi-faceted issue with so many variables.

...so don't offer a binary referendum then. Put the 3 options in front of voters: rejoin the EU, EFTA or WTO Brexit. Something for everybody and gives politicians a crystal clear instruction about what to do with the result.

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6 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

...so don't offer a binary referendum then. Put the 3 options in front of voters: rejoin the EU, EFTA or WTO Brexit. Something for everybody and gives politicians a crystal clear instruction about what to do with the result.

Certainly, it's what should have been on the ballot in the first place . . . with two years to go. Or even one year ago, when it should have dawned on negotiators that the EU would never tick all our boxes.

But you will agree that no one has war-gamed for these exit routes nor thought them through. How many people are able to make an informed decision on the pros and cons of EFTA vs WTO? Why isn't Norway on the list . . . so on. There simply isn't time to prep the public. I think it would be unfair and irresponsible.

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25 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

...so don't offer a binary referendum then. Put the 3 options in front of voters: rejoin the EU, EFTA or WTO Brexit. Something for everybody and gives politicians a crystal clear instruction about what to do with the result.

For a start any referendum might have to be advisory only; if not it qualifies the principle of representative democracy. The 2016 has been accepted but look at the mess!

The HOC would have to vote on any deal and MPs are not delegates and would probably vote how they saw fit; you would still get splits.

There's no problem with the three choices but they imply that Art 50 would have to be extended otherwise the EU option would probably not lead to status quo ante and would be misleading.

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On 12/12/2018 at 00:25, macca13 said:

Lost me there.. 

Im explaining to the remain voters that you are the problem.. open boarders will bankrupt the country.. 

Its as plain as the nose on your face but you refuse to see it, blinded by government propaganda.. 

Low skilled Migration costs us a fortune! 

Look at our debt! Look at our benefits bills, the state of our public services.. It’s only going one way and that’s bankruptcy.. 

10 years CON’s have had to fix this but the costs are too high, investment too low and infrastructure too expensive to maintain or expand without more income tax! 

Low paid workers are a drain! 

I am sure I saw some figures the other day that showed the opposite to this.

Migrants are generally young, fit and healthy and pay more in than they take out.

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  • 241 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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