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Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

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1 minute ago, crouch said:

The HOC would have to vote on any deal and MPs are not delegates and would probably vote how they saw fit; you would still get splits.

 

Of course. Getting a 2nd Ref through the House would be another timewaster . . . and Labour would probably want its own flavour of Brexit on the ballot . . . which at the moment is pie in the sky . . .  I just don't see it happening.

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4 minutes ago, copydude said:

Of course. Getting a 2nd Ref through the House would be another timewaster . . . and Labour would probably want its own flavour of Brexit on the ballot . . . which at the moment is pie in the sky . . .  I just don't see it happening.

Neither do I but Remainers see it as a second shot and believe that fear, boredom and frustration will deliver the result for them this time.

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1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

..so don't offer a binary referendum then. Put the 3 options in front of voters: rejoin the EU, EFTA or WTO Brexit. Something for everybody and gives politicians a crystal clear instruction about what to do with the result.

Given the bitterness and chaos over the last 30 months I'm amazed that some posters think anything about a 2nd ref would be straightforward.

How are you going to offer anything 'crystal clear' to voters on EFTA and WTO when you have no idea what form these routes will take over coming years, whether they're deffo an option, and after a majority of MPs have demonstrated that they are not going to vote for any chance of us going to WTO?

Edited by thehowler

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21 minutes ago, crouch said:

Neither do I but Remainers see it as a second shot and believe that fear, boredom and frustration will deliver the result for them this time.

They think they've got nothing to lose. May's deal is the end for them so they will do anything they can to have another ref.

Even if that means delivering unto us an even worse outcome than May's deal...

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2 minutes ago, thehowler said:

They think they've got nothing to lose. May's deal is the end for them so they will do anything they can to have another ref.

Even if that means delivering unto us an even worse outcome than May's deal...

The critical fact here is that no one knows which is the worst outcome. This is a deal for forty years and I have no idea where we'll be at the end of next week let alone forty years and I am not alone. The 1971 White Paper on EEC entry gave no forecasts.

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2 hours ago, copydude said:

Certainly, it's what should have been on the ballot in the first place . . . with two years to go. Or even one year ago, when it should have dawned on negotiators that the EU would never tick all our boxes.

But you will agree that no one has war-gamed for these exit routes nor thought them through. How many people are able to make an informed decision on the pros and cons of EFTA vs WTO? Why isn't Norway on the list . . . so on. There simply isn't time to prep the public. I think it would be unfair and irresponsible.

The EU wargamed all the credible options even before the vote and concluded we would end up pretty much where we are today.

We wargamed the likely options in the weeks after the vote and all routes ended badly for us, so badly that the results have never been made public.

Edited by Confusion of VIs

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6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

 

We wargamed the likely options in the weeks after the vote and all routes ended badly for us, so badly that the results have never been made public.

Out of interest, what on earth would be the point of keeping it a secret?

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1 hour ago, crouch said:

There's no problem with the three choices but they imply that Art 50 would have to be extended otherwise the EU option would probably not lead to status quo ante and would be misleading.

I think the UK should leave the EU at the end of March 2019 in order to respect the result of the 2016 referendum. It is really the least the MPs who voted to hold a referendum in the first place can do. Then the UK will have 2-3 years until the end of the transition period to prepare for all 3 eventualities. It could start talking to EFTA, it could begin logistical preparations for a WTO Brexit and it could talk to the EU about the terms of rejoining e.g. Schengen and the rebate.

Maybe May could announce fairly soon that if the UK leaves according to the withdrawal agreement in March 2019 there will be a 3 way referendum at the end of 2020 and that in the meantime preparations will begin for all 3 outcomes and she wants to have a national debate on which of these the final endpoint for Brexit should be. It might be a way to get people to start lifting their eyes from the March 2019 deadline and start thinking about what comes next.

Edited by Dorkins

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2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Maybe May could announce fairly soon that if the UK leaves according to the withdrawal agreement in March 2019 there will be a 3 way referendum at the end of 2020 and that in the meantime preparations will begin for all 3 outcomes and she wants to have a national debate on which of these the final endpoint for Brexit should be. It might be a way to get people to start lifting their eyes from the March 2019 deadline and start thinking about what comes next.

That sounds sensible and rational - but it would mean May being head of a national govt for years and Labour/opposition groups would never go for it.

It also assumes that the EU will sit by and indulge us in years of discussions with no clear end or guarantee of ratification, something they appear unwilling to do.

Perhaps if May put it in a GE manifesto and asked the country to back the Tories...

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Could market panic intervene, scuppering all best-laid plans, once the spectre of no deal becomes reality? 

Pound tanking to 99c . . . whatever. I imagine Art 50 might get pulled rather fast in this scenario?

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26 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Given the bitterness and chaos over the last 30 months I'm amazed that some posters think anything about a 2nd ref would be straightforward.

I think in a strange sort of way a 2nd referendum with all 3 options could be a way to start reuniting the country and Parliament.

UKIP/ERG-types definitely want a WTO Brexit - great, let's write it down in black and white on the ballot paper that if you put an X here the UK will leave the single market and customs union. The EU27 have been very clear that you're either in the SM or you're not and there is no halfway house so there is no possibility of UK politicians after the referendum negotiating a Chequers-style oh-we-left-the-SM-but-actually-there's-a-common-rulebook-which-is-basically-SM-with-some-vague-wording-about-divergence-which-will-never-happen.

Remainers want another chance based on their own preferences, the new information about what the real options for leaving actually are, the possibility that people have changed their minds and demographic turnover - no problem, have a box on the ballot paper, all welcome.

EFTA is the compromise solution - 80% of the benefits of leaving (no CAP, no CFP, as many FTAs as you like) with minimal disruption. The leaders of the EFTA countries (okay maybe not random backbench Norwegian MPs) have said it can happen. It's what many people who voted in the 1975 referendum thought they were voting for: just trade, nothing else. It could later develop into a looser arrangement if the UK electorate want.

Like I say, something for everybody.

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46 minutes ago, thehowler said:

They think they've got nothing to lose. May's deal is the end for them so they will do anything they can to have another ref.

Even if that means delivering unto us an even worse outcome than May's deal...

May's deal is not the end for remain, it just becomes rejoin. Maybe it would be healthy for remain campaigners to go through May's March 2019 withdrawal and come out the other side, blinking, realise that the world hasn't ended and it's time to wake up and engage with the process instead of trying to shove spanners in the works. The UK remains de facto in the single market and customs union during the transition period, should be easy to rejoin from that position as the acquis is still in place.

Maybe remainer MPs will start to figure this out at some point.

Edited by Dorkins

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2 minutes ago, copydude said:

Could market panic intervene, scuppering all best-laid plans, once the spectre of no deal becomes reality? 

Pound tanking to 99c . . . whatever. I imagine Art 50 might get pulled rather fast in this scenario?

Are we lurching into a crash - Eurozone slow-down, Italy debt, Mario stopping printing (why now?) EU interest rates already at 0%, new car sales here and in EU collapsing, oil price tanking, house price stagnation/drops, retail getting smashed, French GDP hit by civil unrest, Merkel on way out...

...or is it all Brexit's fault?

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5 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

think in a strange sort of way a 2nd referendum with all 3 options could be a way to start reuniting the country and Parliament.

UKIP/ERG-types definitely want a WTO Brexit - great, let's write it down in black and white on the ballot paper that if you put an X here the UK will leave the single market and customs union. The EU27 have been very clear that you're either in the SM or you're not and there is no halfway house so there is no possibility of UK politicians after the referendum negotiating a Chequers-style oh-we-left-the-SM-but-actually-there's-a-common-rulebook-which-is-basically-SM-with-some-vague-wording-about-divergence-which-will-never-happen.

Remainers want another chance based on their own preferences, the new information about what the real options for leaving actually are, the possibility that people have changed their minds and demographic turnover - no problem, have a box on the ballot paper, all welcome.

EFTA is the compromise solution - 80% of the benefits of leaving (no CAP, no CFP, as many FTAs as you like) with minimal disruption. The leaders of the EFTA countries (okay maybe not random backbench Norwegian MPs) have said it can happen. It's what many people who voted in the 1975 referendum thought they were voting for: just trade, nothing else. It could later develop into a looser arrangement if the UK electorate want.

Like I say, something for everybody.

It's all wise and you'd get my backing...but...it's a big ask for voters. Maybe if we had your two year national discussion it could work?

I agree that it could all be roughly divided between those who want to remain, and those who want to be in or out of the SM.

But I come back to Labour (sorry). They're still saying they could get a CU deal with same level of frictionless etc as SM, utter BS. I'd prefer to see a GE where both main parties commit to or abandon the SM.

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6 minutes ago, copydude said:

Do we get a transition period with no deal? Not clear about this.

Not according to the EU. Three things have to be fixed for transition - the money, citizens and NI.

Boris/JRM think you can get to transition and delay talks on NI...and maybe keep half the money back as an incentive!

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24 minutes ago, copydude said:

Do we get a transition period with no deal? Not clear about this.

Nope. If A50 is not withdrawn or extended and no withdrawal agreement is signed the UK goes straight onto WTO rules on 30th March 2019.

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26 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Remainers want another chance based on their own preferences, the new information about what the real options for leaving actually are, the possibility that people have changed their minds and demographic turnover - no problem, have a box on the ballot paper, all welcome.

Why not a 3-way vote with a second preference? Remain, "deal", no deal. Top two choices go through, and preferences from third place are assigned. That way we will know if people who want a deal would rather remain or crash out as second preference. It's rather likely that remain would win anyway IMO, given that it is the most painless solution and the one most likely to stop the endless Brexit news cycle the soonest. Can you imagine another 2-3 years of endless Brexit? It doesn't bear thinking about.

Whatever happens, I don't think any result is going to last another 40 years before being revisited. Support for EU membership amongst the young is huge - 70% huge - with the opposite swing amongst the old.

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A very interesting overview of Brexit related information manipulation and propaganda:

I've jumped in at ~5mins of the 12min video.

 

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48 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

I think the UK should leave the EU at the end of March 2019 in order to respect the result of the 2016 referendum. It is really the least the MPs who voted to hold a referendum in the first place can do. Then the UK will have 2-3 years until the end of the transition period to prepare for all 3 eventualities

Mays deal has effectively been rejected so we get a 'WTO' leave (no deal) and no transition period in March 2019. 

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22 minutes ago, thehowler said:

But I come back to Labour (sorry). They're still saying they could get a CU deal with same level of frictionless etc as SM, utter BS. I'd prefer to see a GE where both main parties commit to or abandon the SM.

It's fair, Labour are nowhere on Brexit. As I've said before, their only advantage is that they are more united as a party on Europe than the Tories in that almost all of them want either EU membership or a soft Brexit.

The trouble with a GE is that there's no mechanism to force the major parties to commit to a defined Brexit endpoint. They will likely just do the same as in GE2017 i.e. mumble some vague words about respecting the referendum result and we would emerge none the wiser.

A second referendum with all 3 options gets you past the vagueness and it means party leaders don't have to settle on a defined Brexit endpoint which might cause party discipline problems. I can see benefits to setting a future date for a 2nd referendum with 3 options soon to at least set some direction but it's still much too soon to actually have it, both voters and politicians have a lot to process and many have got themselves stuck in quite deep mental ruts. A couple of years is needed to help people get their heads together.

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5 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Mays deal has effectively been rejected so we get a 'WTO' leave (no deal) and no transition period in March 2019. 

Not yet.

And MPs have already said - even May - that they will vote to stop any chance of a WTO crash out.

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37 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Maybe it would be healthy for remain campaigners to go through May's March 2019 withdrawal and come out the other side, blinking, realise that the world hasn't ended and it's time to wake up and engage with the process instead of trying to shove spanners in the works. The UK remains de facto in the single market and customs union during the transition period, should be easy to rejoin from that position as the acquis is still in place.

So the world won't end why we stay in the Single Market and Customs Union. Maybe connected to the reality that we will still be in the EU from the economic point of view.

It primary purpose is to enable the relocation of factories and companies out of the UK and into the Single market, likely paid for by the British Government to foreign multinationals like Nissan due to the UK's broken contract.

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12 minutes ago, mattyboy1973 said:

Why not a 3-way vote with a second preference? Remain, "deal", no deal. Top two choices go through, and preferences from third place are assigned.

Yes, any 3 way referendum should be single transferable vote/second preference to avoid vote splitting, tactical voting, and the possibility that the "winning" result would have less than 50% of the vote.

I don't think we should have a second referendum on May's withdrawal agreement, this was already mandated by the 2016 referendum.

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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