We Are Facing Another Global Financial Crisis Of Epic Proportions

[999house]

There was a chap on the Fivelive business prog this morning saying that BP results are a sign of deflation in the UK economy and would be a worry for Osborne.

Some professor who specialises in the oil industry also pointed out that oil is in decline in the north sea, expensive to obtain and that there needs to be a rationalisation of equipement/technology used to reduce costs.

Would need to strip out effect of price to get the answerand compare like forlike

[billybong]

And it might not

Then you have to consider that it seems to tie in with something like the report in the link below which concludes there hasn't been much deleveraging at all since the start of the economic collapse - and maybe consider big straws like the oil price trend.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging

Edited February 2, 2016 by billybong

[sideysid]

A vertical plunge in the Dow opening...

[999house]

Then you have to consider that it seems to tie in with something like the report in the link below which concludes there hasn't been much deleveraging at all since the start of the economic collapse - and maybe consider big straws like the oil price trend.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging

Debt is only a problem if you cant pay it back. The report doesnt look into enough detail for corporate debt. Household debt is a problem, national debt isnt my area so i wouldnt like to guess.

Corporate debt i understand more than most. Youd expect companies to increase gearing if rates are lower. Why dont you lay interest rates over the top of that graphy and see if it correlates.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

BP plc

332.85 GBXPrice decrease 34.10

(9.29%)

Move along, move along

[Kiwi Toast]

Insurers doing very badly (much worse than FTSE 100) today (in fact particularly this afternoon). Does anyone know why?

[papag]

yep because i knocked Aviva down by £45 last night on my car insurance word must have got out

[Kiwi Toast]

What did you do to L&G and Prudential?

[adamLancs]

They probably insured the oil companies against another dip in the price.

[Kiwi Toast]

"Insurers slump as China imposes restrictions on buying insurance products overseas" apparently

[TheCountOfNowhere]

It'll all be up tomorrow again.

[papag]

What did you do to L&G and Prudential?

There next

[zugzwang]

Then you have to consider that it seems to tie in with something like the report in the link below which concludes there hasn't been much deleveraging at all since the start of the economic collapse - and maybe consider big straws like the oil price trend.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging

Deleveraging? I'm sure Osborne's heard of it.

[999house]

Deleveraging? I'm sure Osborne's heard of it.

This doesnt make any sense unless you do it per household and strip out mortgages.

[phoey1]

FED wanting to stress test negative interest rates in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/rates-less-than-zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016

[Errol]

Buy gold.

[Noallegiance]

FED wanting to stress test negative interest rates in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/rates-less-than-zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016

Holy crap. Is this finally going to play out the way the 'contrarians' have been saying for over a decade?

Immense times, if so.

[SillyBilly]

The Long Emergency. Short periods of tepid growth interrupted by recurrent bouts of outright deflation a la Japan.

Say hello to your future.

We've not had an 1989 equivalent re-appraisal of house prices (yet) or a 80% crash in stocks. You think this is likely?

[doomed]

Buy bitcoin.

[999house]

Buy gold.

Im buying cattle. People will need to eat.

[jiltedjen]

Buy a gold cow with bitcoin diversify people!

[suntory]

Wow, this thread is on fire. I am not checking in for 48 hours and there are pages and pages of new posts. It's hard to keep up.

Anyways, another mud wrestling match in the markets out there today. I just hope these guys would just get it over with.

Oh, did anyone read the story about HK property prices falling the most since 2009. Something is clearly up and now that equities are on the brink, it seems that housing is next in line. I just can't ******ing wait for all those crap SW8 flats to go south.

[giesahoose]

I see fuse futures down 2.3% will be interesting to see what happens with the Asian market.

Looks like the latest bear market rally is done

[200p]

Rich Dad Poor Dad predicted a stock crash in 2004, to happen in 2016, when the baby boomers retire, and have to sell their stocks because of the The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974. Maybe he is right, and it's nothing to do with China?

Rich Dad’s Prophecy: Why the Biggest Stock Market Crash is Still Coming…and How You Can Prepare Yourself and Profit from It!
By Robert T. Kiyosaki
Business Plus 2004
286 pages. $15.99

Robert T. Kiyosaki cranks out books like a well-oiled machine. At a guess, there are probably ten to fifteen books in his Rich Dad series. And in most of them, Kiyosaki performs at least a few small feats of financial prophecy. Rich Dad’s Prophecy is – as the title indicates – all about prophecy. Kiyosaki puts on his mantle and turns it loose.

In a nutshell, his prophecy is that around 2016 the bottom is going to fall out of the stock market. When it does, the crash will be heard around the world.

Rich Dad’s Prophecy is divided into two major sections. Section one, which is called ‘Is the Fairy Tale Over?,’ explains why Kiyosaki predicts the coming stock market crash. Section two, which he calls ‘Building the Ark,’ sets forth a way to survive the crash predicted in section one. In other words, section two is a survival manual for the financial end of the world.

Kiyosaki starts out by saying, “This is not a gloom and doom book. It is really a gloom and boom book.” Translation: bad days are ahead, but they can turn out to be the best days ever if you plan ahead.

According to Kiyosaki, a law passed in 1974 will provoke the stock market crash of 2016. He calls it “the law that changed the world.” It’s called ERISA, which stands for Employer Retirement Income Security Act. Supposedly, the act was passed to protect the retirement accounts of employees. In reality, Kiyosaki declares that ERISA transferred the expense of retirement “from the employer to the employee.” Because of this transfer, Kiyosaki predicts that those employees who religiously put money in their retirement accounts (401k) will – when the crash occurs – do the wrong thing. They will panic and sell, sell, sell. Why? Because “they will react as most untrained investors react.”

In the next chapter, Kiyosaki asks the question, “Are you ready to face the real world?” In the real world, getting a good job and saving for retirement will not provide enough money for “at least 80 percent” of baby-boomers to retire on. In the real world, the government cannot afford to provide financial and medical support for over 150 million people.

Kiyosaki believes that the nightmare is already beginning. Since March of 2000, the stock market has deflated. He believes the market will rebound, then go bust, then rebound, then go bust. Eventually, the stock market will not be able to rebound. It will crash. The reason this cycle will occur is financial assumptions. Too many workers assume their retirement plans, along with Social Security, will be enough to live on during retirement.

At the end of chapter six, Kiyosaki summarizes the three reasons the crash of 2016 will take place. First, “there will be a market sell-off caused by baby-boomers converting to cash.” And this sell-off will occur because people do not understand or trust their financial assets. “Most people today do not naturally feel secure with mutual funds and stocks.” They want and trust cash.

The second reason is “the cost of living and medical costs will go up.” People need money to live on, so they will sell their mutual funds. And the third reason is “the number of fools will increase.” People will make bad decisions in how they handle their money.

Kiyosaki moves on to chapter eight, where he says that ERISA and the “coming giant crash are really only the symptoms of a much deeper problem.” Put simply, the problem behind the problem is “we now have too many people who have come to expect the government to solve their problems.”

According to Kiyosaki, all the aforementioned factors are coming together to form “the perfect storm.” The warning signs of the coming storm can be seen in the rising costs of medical care, increased terrorism, Japan’s precarious financial condition, the rise of China as the world’s largest economy, the aging of the world’s population, the obsolescence of Wall Street, and the failure of Big Corporations.

Having stated his prophecy of doom, Kiyosaki proceeds to his second major theme – how to build an ark. And he immediately warns “if you plan on building a big rich ark for retirement, you may have to let go of many of the traditional middle-class values.”

The first step in building an ark is to develop “your own financial statement.” This will allow you to determine whether your present investments/assets provide cash flow or should be labeled as “fool’s gold.” In other words, “is your money working for you?” The second step involves examining your “level of thought when it comes to money.” In effect, this is your fear factor. Kiyosaki recommends analyzing your thoughts. “Are they based on fact or fear?” The implication is that most ‘thought levels’ about money are based on fear. Once the fear is exposed, a new sense of freedom takes place.

The next step toward building an ark is to get rid of your excuses. Once you rid yourself of excuses, you can commit time to building your ark. This involves investing in business, real estate and/or stocks. Make a list of pros and cons. Decide which avenue suits your personality and preferences. Then build it, using a team of professional advisors. However, be the captain of the ship. Don’t let your advisors make the final decision.

Kiyosaki’s final word of advice for building your ark is to “invest in yourself.” This includes education, health, recreation, etc.

Whether or not Kiyosaki’s prophecy of a gigantic crash in 2016 is true or not, most of the advice he gives in Rich Dad’s Prophecy appears to be sound. And although he doesn’t provide specific investment advice, he does provide a plan of action. Which is probably what most people need. Essentially, then, Rich Dad’s Prophecy is a motivational book. It’s designed to get people thinking about their financial future. And after they think about it, Kyosaki gives them a push in the right direction.

http://www.silvermonthly.com/rich-dads-prophecy-why-the-biggest-stock-market-crash-is-still-coming/

[jiltedjen]

5500 on the FTSE100 is the plunge point. Will be some resistance around there.

Got a big bear market rally due, will look like a break-out but will just be a bull-trap.

straight forward vanilla recessesion, with a HPC.