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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by sideysid

  1. You are thinking in the realm that everything will continue like they have in the last decade since 2008. Financial cycles are lot wider spanning and we are looking at a global recession (deflation then inflation) not seen since the great depression. The amount of QE money being penciled in for this economic crisis which already nearing as much for the whole decade since 2008. No government gimmick props like HTB extensions etc will save an over-inflated housing market. 60% of landlords are 55 or over. We have 2.5 million BTL landlords in this country. Ignoring the fact for a moment that this virus may still come in waves effect a proportion of that demographic of boomers and cause an increase of properties coming to the market through illness/death. Recent BTL landlords investments will be lucky to have a 3% yield. What happens when void after void occurs due to millions losing their jobs with evictions becoming harder and lock-down prolonging the process. BTL en mass will start heading for the exit. Banks very hesitant to lend despite the government putting the printing presses on full speed. It was always going to be the banks restricting the flow of lending due to the wider economic risk environment. It was never about the likes of bulls**t statistics from the likes of Nationwide and Halifax with vested interests in HPI forever or incompetent reckless individuals over-leveraging themselves in taking on whatever debt they had access to pushing prices up. All this will have a direct effect on the housing market. Central city overpriced shoe boxes will be the first to fall, building projects will be halted, demand for HMO's will plummet and they will be unsalable. To think that the wider housing market in the counties in their chocolate box villages will go unscathed is deluded. This will be global, as its this virus has been the pin leading to the deflation of the 'everything bubble'.
  2. Or as long as one of you isn’t working, just shove everything above the £12k tax bracket into a pension (up to £40k a year) you could even reduce your hours or go part time if you earn more than that and claim max UC. Factor in free prescriptions, reduced council tax, childcare and take your income lower that for free school dinners and after school clubs, Pick a house for the government to pay the rent for up to the LHA for and space 2 kids out at a time so it covers you all the way and bingo wait for early retirement.
  3. Simple answer here, it’s because home ownership was much higher then. As soon as a financial downturn hit, those struggling the most with money or finding jobs lost their homes. Now the proportion of BTL landlords renting to housing benefit recipients have skewed the statistics as not as many lower paid workers own their own home (especially in the south) as house prices are so out of whack with pay. Obviously when the debt tap is turned off in the next financial downturn (we are starting now), it’ll be the BTL landlords losing their homes and that statistic will jump up.
  4. Nah mate, you’re not looking at the bigger picture. How about doing the same as these enterprising ‘soon-to-be’ millionaires? https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/50470334 These property experts bought this average 4 bed terrace in a shitty London suburb round the corner from me in the height of the last bubble in 2006. Now just over a decade later, what do you if you want to get rid? You put it up for double what you paid that’s what! Krusty and Phil eat your heart out! Instant millionaires, licence to print money this property lark. Pro-tip - Also what better to talk about at dinner parties with other property experts how much your house is ‘worth’, everyone loves to hear about that.
  5. That’s an admirable plan, and I am in a similar situation (except career average, no final salary) but I fully expect the goalposts to be moved. I think in the next 20 years we may well see the biggest overhaul to existing pension conditions as we enter the downturn in the next stage of the financial cycle. I fully expect pension ages to increase, and previous conditions frozen and forced moves onto new conditions. If this cycle does turn out to be the next Great Depression, could well see government inventions and confiscation of wealth.
  6. In these days of debt fuelled economy, and the forthcoming financial shitstorm, I often wonder if I’ll my retirement plan will still be relevant in 20 years time. Sometimes I feel I may as well take on the system and join the tax credit masses. I have a DC pot, LISA and DB (that I can take from 55 reduced). I could reduce my savings below £6k, pay 100% of my salary into my DC pension (up to £40k limit p/a), then rent out my flat (own outright so no s24) so my earnings are £12k a year, claim max tax credits (two children) and rent a 3 bed up to the LHA for housing benefit. Then by doing all that I should be able to retire 10 years early.
  7. This. Short sighted vote winning policies for the short sighted boomer generation. I used to walk to school with a friend whose dad was retired as long as I could remember. He used to be an Actuary for L&G and retired at 50. He’s now been retired for longer than he’s worked at 80 odd years old and still has a new car every couple of years. Those types of pension conditions were unsustainable and will never be seen again. The drawbridge has been raised. In the case of DB pensions, increased contributions and now linked to state pension age which will most likely raise to 70 under the guise that we are living longer. All this has done is feather the nest of a specific generation. They just don’t realise yet they’ve shot themselves in the foot. If generation rent can’t afford a place of their own with all the millstones places around their necks, they are not going to be gardening/DIY/furniture shopping, hence the demise of home retail, and lesuire.
  8. The current rental rates in your area may well be that, and no doubt you can probably push your rent up.... for now. However when looking at the demographic of the ‘working professional’ type you are aiming at for, do you believe they all really ‘want’ to rent or simply they have been priced out of actually buying their own home? With the Feds QT stance, rising interest rates and the following restriction of credit, S24, estate agent fee restrictions and a financial downturn looking likely, the property wheel (supported by BTL) has stopped and had started reversing. The massively over leveraged will be the first to force sell, as sitting on their hands and waiting for better times is not an option. This coupled with ‘natural’ forced sellers i.e. divorces, deaths etc, will drive the market down making more supply. This makes the rental market demand head down not up, as house prices for those forced renters with deposits in secure jobs will finally become in reach to own their own homes. Social housing is another kettle of fish however, and we already have a very real shortage that area and this will only increase massively. But as stated before the rental amount in that sector will be limited to the housing benefit allowance, and as you have said won’t be applicable to your property as social tenants aren’t an option. In the future many BTL landlords may change their tune however.
  9. This place seems to mirror the likes of the property 118/tribes forums nowadays. Thatcher created a time bomb when she gave the green light to sell off council housing in the 80’s. This in turn created an unprecedented outcome decades later with privately owned ex-council properties in previously unfashionable/crime ridden London suburbs suddenly making the owners millionaires. This was a toxic mix with ‘Emergency low’ interest rates since 2008, and QE sloshing around for cheap credit and ‘investors’ weighing in and over leveraging themselves for BTL chasing yields. With a rising population and an increasing demand for social housing as prices spiral out of reach this was inevitable, but BTL landlords are not doing anyone a favour. The tax changes should have been introduced way before the situation became too big to handle. The fallout from another financial downturn (which is already here) will be catastrophic. As a BTL landlord you cannot simply ‘raise rents’ and pass on costs to tenants. The landlords with the lowest leverage (the ones who own outright) and the housing benefit allowance will dictate the market rate, not the kite flyers trying to stay solvent.
  10. Everyone on here and we're not finished yet. Good luck for 2019 if you haven't taken steps to safeguard against a recession. Your IFA may have a great track record (let me guess stretching over the last 10 years?) but IFAs only advise based on recent/current financial environments. It's like Martin Lewis, great for parking ticket templates etc, but advising kids to max out student loans to pay ridiculous university fees? He went very quiet after Iceland banks going bust in 2008 also.
  11. Croydon girls were pretty much renowned for many an interesting story. The club itself was a pain in the **** to get home from, so we didn’t go too often. The ‘booze bus’ they put on to take you there was more fun. I remember once a group of girls were sitting at the back and all going commando in short skirts to avoid VPL. We obviously got talking to those pretty sharpish after them giving us a flash or two. Alas those days are long gone for the younger generation.
  12. This is a real issue, and the tax payer will foot the bill when these reckless investments go up in smoke. Heads should roll, but unfortunately unlike the poll tax riots in the past, the MSM will most likely have a media blackout to placate the masses. In this example in the area I grew up in, £53m for this retail park is ridiculous. Due to the location and having to drive there, the last time it was popular was in 1990 when it was an indoor water park. Then when that closed down the main attraction was a nightclub in the heydays of the late 90’s that put on a free bus to get punters in. https://insidecroydon.com/2018/11/01/council-pays-53m-to-buy-unloved-colonnades-centre/
  13. It isn’t the whole boomer generation that’s to blame, it’s just that most are blissfully ignorant of how fortunate circumstances have been for them and completely oblivious that the younger generation will be left to pick up the pieces after they shuffle off this mortal coil. We are now being told we’re not living longer after all. Will the pension age come back down? Nope. My next door neighbor retired as an actuary for legal and general at 50 years old in the 80’s, he’s now been retired longer than he’s worked, will that ever happen again? Nope. My other next door neighbors sold their small terraced house in a terrible state for £400k. They had remortgaged over the years 3 times, had a lot of debt and were so bad with money they couldn’t get mobile phone contracts with their credit rating. They are now living in caravan park by the sea, renting out a flat to fund their retirement. Will that ever happen again. Nope. Most boomers have also benefited from selling off their wartime generation parents homes. I know of several of my friends that have stated that their parents intend to leave them nothing. I will be looking to short all cruise liner stock in years to come.
  14. Unfortunately we are an anomaly at this point in time in terms of our age and the housing market. Like others on here I bought my first flat at 20 years old, and had a nice 3 bed by 25. Some things don’t work out and you have to start again. A combination of low interest rates since the last financial crisis and boomers looking to park money, have seen over 2.5 million flock to the housing market for investment. Most don’t understand the stock market, so ‘bricks and mortar’ and all that. The banks have encouraged this so the current generation have lost out and are limited in having children and a stable home. That will all change in time of course, but with the amount of carnage it will cause from the debt realisation, the government will back the props as far as they can. The generations below will be ok for that reason, they’ll see themselves through to the other side of the shitstorm. I’ve had enough of the odds weighted against us, so Universal credit is in my area and as it doesn’t rely on working hours, I’m considering stashing everything above tax allowance in my work pension. Then I’ll get my rent paid, and with the universal credit payments I’ll be no worse off, and it means I can retire 10-15 years earlier.
  15. B-but we have the lowest level of unemployment and we’ve hit record highs donchaknow? All these tax credit self-employed facebook face painting/cup cake companies should do wonders for UK productivity.
  16. I’m following two developments which I fully expect to be shelved. Both effect me as they involve where I live and work and can get local info on the plans. One is the redevelopment of Earls Court which is already in trouble. They’ve just re-sold the Empress State building back to the Met police for their counter terrorism unit. Word is all the local shops they bought out, they have made a U-turn and are re-leasing them. https://www.standard.co.uk/business/property-developer-capco-takes-131m-hit-on-earls-court-scheme-a3772281.html The other is the Westfield development of Croydon. Brick and mortar retail is blatantly on the downturn in the current climate and this will be a disastrous investment. I think the bean counters will be well aware of this and if the financial downturn gathers pace, I think it will just be parked which will bad news for Croydon. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/05/john-lewis-waitrose-anchor-1-4bn-westfield-croydon/
  17. You would have to deaf and blind not to see the forced agenda in the media of recent years. Elon Musk tweeted this the other day, which was answered none other by a Rothschild.
  18. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-44258652 Truck blockades over the price of fuel is certainly causing problems in Brazil. Supermarkets are bare, and people are being rationed. Doesn’t look good for South America, with Venezuela, Argentina and Brazil in trouble.
  19. I worked for homebase from age 16 for 5 years through college and Uni. The area manager wanted me to forgoe my education and become a store manager, and I would get business related NVQs while I worked for them. It was under Sainsburys then and had recently bought out Texas and was doing reasonably well. Obviously I didn’t listen to him, I just pity the poor workers still there (having visted the local branch recently) and seeing the place resemble a shabby discount store. What a ridiculous board decision, jumping in with no retail research. Having spent a year or so in Australia and having family there I can picture the board. “Yeah mate, we’re gonner expand into the UK”, “Shouldn’t we test the water first?” “Nah mate, she’ll be right”.
  20. The simple answer is to hedge your bets and diversify. I have bitcoin (as well as other Crypto), yes it’s all mostly speculation. But Bitcoin and Monero are the two main currencies used on the dark web, so as these have a real world use (albeit mostly an immoral one), they have value. My gut feeling is when the time comes and countries are fleeing their currencies, Bitcoin will go stratospheric. I do believe that banks have bought enough now however to be able to manipulate the price of crypto, just like gold in a way.
  21. I’ve got a Rolex DateJust II. I didn’t pay for it exactly (time-wise maybe) as I got it through Clubcard point redemption x3 at Goldsmiths. Ironic thing is I don’t even shop at Tesco, I got the points mostly through promos buying retiring Lego sets (for resale) and ink cartridge recycling. Tesco have massively devalued the scheme nowadays now though, so I’m not sure if anyone could do this anymore. I firstly looked at Tags and Breitlings. What put me off is Tags use other manufacturer parts (like seiko) and the precious metals on Breitlings are plated (at the cheaper end anyway). I appreciate the craftsmanship on mechanical watches, and watches like the submariner, deep sea dweller and millgaus all have real world uses. I really don’t see the point of expensive quartz watches. I like mine as it flies below the Radar and doesn’t scream Rolex, and will be a watch I can wear which doesn’t look ridiculously bling as I get older. I’ll then pass it down to my daughter when the time comes.
  22. I have no doubt that in the next few years (especially if the housing market downturn gathers pace - and it will) we will see a U-turn by the government for debt forgiveness on the HTB loans. The sentiment is changing and government know leading into the next GE they will start to need the millennial votes, many who will be on the HTB scheme. Imagine the outcry should interest rates be forced up ‘a la’ DBs thread.
  23. Yup, I feel we've reached the tipping point. Anything spouted financially in the media is to subvert the masses while the real players shuffle their cards to prepare for the forthcoming storm. Mark Carney's TV interview the other day was an absolute joke. (edit can't find it) It was a news reporter bleating on about the 3.1% drop in house prices being a 'gloomy outlook' and Carney saying it was due to the weather.
  24. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grande-Terre_(Mayotte) Smaller EU territories are also facing issues. The island of Mayotte who gained ‘Outmost region in the EU’ in 2014 population has doubled in 10 years but that’s only offical statistics. 70% of every 10000 births every year are from undocumented migrants and resources being stretched is causing unrest on the island. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-43443716 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-5508247/French-island-hospital-groans-African-baby-influx.html
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