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Kiwi Toast

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Everything posted by Kiwi Toast

  1. The same way people normally organise. Try to reach people who perceive a problem (those struggling find a decent place to live, who would like to buy but can't afford it and those who care about the plight of others in this situation - this could be anyone, but may particularly be those who worry about their children's housing worries) and explain the causes and the solutions. It may be in the next few years prices return to sensible income multiples as BTLers are forced to sell. But if they don't, further policies may be required, and I think this is most likely to come about as a result of renter-savers and fellow travellers exerting political pressure. If you think you can persuade people to STR have a look at this: I think it's harder to influence people who are in a position to participate in the market (potential buyers and sellers) than it is to convince people (particularly those who are priced out, but others too) to demand better housing policy.
  2. Pretty clear that thewig denies the accusation.
  3. If someone has a deposit of £5,000 and an income of £20,000 there no point persuading them that buying a flat for £250,000 is a bad idea. They simply don't have the option. I don't know why, but most homeowners won't consider STR. So it seems to me there is little likelihood of persuading market participants to behave differently. But there are millions in both categories who can be informed about how the government has created the housing crisis and has made it worse through counter-productive "solutions." If they could organise around certain policies, politicians might start taking them seriously. How many readers of this thread are weighing up whether to buy or sell? How many might be prepared to engage politically?
  4. No. It's clear that some discussions are important. If people are persuaded on things which determine their actions and interactions with others that makes a difference. This could happen through influencing the individual buying/selling decisions. If enough people were convinced to STR or enough BTLers were scared at the prospect of a crash, or enough buyers who persuaded to put off buying, a crash could be initiated by this change in sentiment. I think the decision to buy versus rent, or the decision to STR is more one of security/lifestyle for most people, so it might be hard to persuade. Also many people caution against give such advice to friends and family. I don't think it's hopeless, but perhaps not likely to make much difference. I am more optimistic about disucssions about policy leading to political change. There are millions of people completely priced out. It would be a complete waste of time to persuade them that now is a bad time to buy. But if they are persuaded that we need tax reform and for the Bank of England to take house prices into account and we need more restrictive regulation and heavier taxation of BTLs etc. then politicians would be more likely to set sensible policies. They have been able to get away with counter-productive boosts to demand because there isn't widespread understanding of the causes of the housing crisis and there isn't anything like a co-ordinated campaign for sensible policies. A slightly disconcerting feature of discussions of politics in relation to housing in the board recently has been the observation that the demographics of the electorate are such that politicians will have to dispose with the old approach of favouring homeowners as these are a dwindling proportion of the electorate. This is only necessarily the case if housing is the number one problen and people agree on the policies which will solve it. First we have to understand, then explain and organise.
  5. What do you make of thewig's claim that he doesn't believe the things of which he was accused? I think a likely reason is he said some things which could be interpreted in different ways (that one has to admit could be interpreted in a number of ways as it cannot be literally true - humans cannot be programmed). If it turned out that thewig's intended meaning differs from Venger's interpretation would it still be worth criticising the perspective attributed to thewig?
  6. What difference does it make? You want a house for you and your family at a reasonable price. The 118ers want to overturn the recent tax changes. Some people want to forgive debt. I don't think there is any reason to believe that these wants make any difference unless they express themselves in the market action. So perhaps those who want section 24 repealed might put off selling, but only if they also believe there is a reasonable chance of it happening. So even then it's unlikely to make a difference to anything. But in the case of wanting to own a house or wanting debt-forgiveness it just seems to make no difference to anything.
  7. Fair enough. But I'm just curious where they do live. You say all the owners/sellers in Notting Hill are foreign/rich, not working. Are your colleagues and friends renting in Notting Hill and nearby? I would have thought zone 3 would be more like 325-375, zone 2 is around 400 for 1 beds.
  8. How ironic! Venger comes back after staying he'd stay away and you say I'm dragging us off topic after telling me it's very hard to so 8 minutes ago. To go back to the contentious issue of whether people are programmed, or responsible or whatever, how do we define these terms precisely? If we could, we might be able to settle it.
  9. The above is proof that there are no innocents buying in the last few years (who have mortgages anyway).
  10. Some beliefs have implications, but I don't think the beliefs we have been talking about do. But if they do, I don't know why you don't explain the causal mechanism by which thewig beliefs affect the housing market.
  11. Where do your colleagues (also in 20s) and friends live? You might consider places just outside prime, where 1 beds are more like 400-500k and are bought by affluent workers rather than the super-rich.
  12. Where did you get the idea that stamp duty might differe depending on whether the property is leasehold or freehold? I'm genuinely curious as I've heard this from someone else.
  13. I'm holding out for a 5 ft 4" woman. Little and financially numerate are negotiable!
  14. I asked Venger what the implications are and this was his reply: If thewig admitted he was in favour of debt-forgiveness (he explicitly rejected this, so I'm not really sure there is much basis for disagreement. He did say "programming", but I think this may have been a careless comment, not to be taken literally) it wouldn't change anything. Thewig isn't deciding on a purchase or sale contigent on whether he believes in debt-forgiveness, and presumably the other readers of this thread aren't either. Venger is simply arguing, by his own admission, because his particular interpretation of thewig's post was offensive to him. My point was simply to gently ask if there was anything more to the argument and if not to encourage the contributors (clearly we are all quite passionate about HPC) to focus on substantive issues. Alternatively in other threads people have disagreed about the relative importance of low interest rates, QE, tenancy laws, CGT, IHT, stamp duty, council tax, housing planning and supply, immigration etc. in explaining house prices. Decisions about buying or selling might be influenced by reading A Goodbye to all that Buy to Let or some other well made arguments on this board. The potential for political persuasion is clearly much greater as this includes those who are not contemplating buying or selling. This really matters.
  15. Exactly and it's very hard to actually see this (to reflect on how the economy functions) if everything gets turned into a debate over whether someone once expressed sympathy for debt junkies.
  16. Whether people are programmed is either true or untrue has implications but is independent of what Venger, thewig, you or I believe. If we are all incorrect about this it doesn't change how the economy functions. Whether people believe people are programmed might matter if it influences policy. E.g. if Venger is right and millions of renter-savers literally beg politicians to help the homeowners and BTLers in negative equity when the crash comes. The reason I was arguing it doesn't really matter is I don't think millions of people are reading this thread and being persuaded by Venger. Are there any implications which I've missed?
  17. I said "What does it matter?" And you respond by asking "what does it add?" Do you realise that your question has the same meaning as mine? The real issues are how does the world work, what is happening and how should we respond. We'll all have a more fruitful time, learn more and influence the world for the better by focusing on facts and theories rather than accusing people of holding certain unpleasant views.
  18. But we could be having fun and discussing questions which have implications.
  19. Why does it matter? If someone said "actually I do condone it", or "I don't believe they are responsible as they have been programmed" what would be the impact?
  20. We may be a nation of shopkeepers, but the FTSE 100 is not an index of retailers.
  21. Most mortgage lenders give you documents with examples like the following: "You will pay £500 per month for 5 years at the fixed rate of 2% followed by payments of £600 per month at our current SVR of 4%. Note that this might change in five years time. If interest rates increase by 10%, your monthly payment will increase to £1,500." They also make you sit in a room for about two hours with an advisor who talks you through this. Maybe this wasn't the case in the early 2000s, but by the time HTB was introduced I think all mortgage applicants would be made aware of this.
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