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Kiwi Toast

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  1. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    The same way people normally organise. Try to reach people who perceive a problem (those struggling find a decent place to live, who would like to buy but can't afford it and those who care about the plight of others in this situation - this could be anyone, but may particularly be those who worry about their children's housing worries) and explain the causes and the solutions. It may be in the next few years prices return to sensible income multiples as BTLers are forced to sell. But if they don't, further policies may be required, and I think this is most likely to come about as a result of renter-savers and fellow travellers exerting political pressure. If you think you can persuade people to STR have a look at this: I think it's harder to influence people who are in a position to participate in the market (potential buyers and sellers) than it is to convince people (particularly those who are priced out, but others too) to demand better housing policy.
  2. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    Pretty clear that thewig denies the accusation.
  3. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    If someone has a deposit of £5,000 and an income of £20,000 there no point persuading them that buying a flat for £250,000 is a bad idea. They simply don't have the option. I don't know why, but most homeowners won't consider STR. So it seems to me there is little likelihood of persuading market participants to behave differently. But there are millions in both categories who can be informed about how the government has created the housing crisis and has made it worse through counter-productive "solutions." If they could organise around certain policies, politicians might start taking them seriously. How many readers of this thread are weighing up whether to buy or sell? How many might be prepared to engage politically?
  4. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    No. It's clear that some discussions are important. If people are persuaded on things which determine their actions and interactions with others that makes a difference. This could happen through influencing the individual buying/selling decisions. If enough people were convinced to STR or enough BTLers were scared at the prospect of a crash, or enough buyers who persuaded to put off buying, a crash could be initiated by this change in sentiment. I think the decision to buy versus rent, or the decision to STR is more one of security/lifestyle for most people, so it might be hard to persuade. Also many people caution against give such advice to friends and family. I don't think it's hopeless, but perhaps not likely to make much difference. I am more optimistic about disucssions about policy leading to political change. There are millions of people completely priced out. It would be a complete waste of time to persuade them that now is a bad time to buy. But if they are persuaded that we need tax reform and for the Bank of England to take house prices into account and we need more restrictive regulation and heavier taxation of BTLs etc. then politicians would be more likely to set sensible policies. They have been able to get away with counter-productive boosts to demand because there isn't widespread understanding of the causes of the housing crisis and there isn't anything like a co-ordinated campaign for sensible policies. A slightly disconcerting feature of discussions of politics in relation to housing in the board recently has been the observation that the demographics of the electorate are such that politicians will have to dispose with the old approach of favouring homeowners as these are a dwindling proportion of the electorate. This is only necessarily the case if housing is the number one problen and people agree on the policies which will solve it. First we have to understand, then explain and organise.
  5. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    What do you make of thewig's claim that he doesn't believe the things of which he was accused? I think a likely reason is he said some things which could be interpreted in different ways (that one has to admit could be interpreted in a number of ways as it cannot be literally true - humans cannot be programmed). If it turned out that thewig's intended meaning differs from Venger's interpretation would it still be worth criticising the perspective attributed to thewig?
  6. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    What difference does it make? You want a house for you and your family at a reasonable price. The 118ers want to overturn the recent tax changes. Some people want to forgive debt. I don't think there is any reason to believe that these wants make any difference unless they express themselves in the market action. So perhaps those who want section 24 repealed might put off selling, but only if they also believe there is a reasonable chance of it happening. So even then it's unlikely to make a difference to anything. But in the case of wanting to own a house or wanting debt-forgiveness it just seems to make no difference to anything.
  7. Fair enough. But I'm just curious where they do live. You say all the owners/sellers in Notting Hill are foreign/rich, not working. Are your colleagues and friends renting in Notting Hill and nearby? I would have thought zone 3 would be more like 325-375, zone 2 is around 400 for 1 beds.
  8. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    How ironic! Venger comes back after staying he'd stay away and you say I'm dragging us off topic after telling me it's very hard to so 8 minutes ago. To go back to the contentious issue of whether people are programmed, or responsible or whatever, how do we define these terms precisely? If we could, we might be able to settle it.
  9. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    The above is proof that there are no innocents buying in the last few years (who have mortgages anyway).
  10. Kiwi Toast

    Financial illiteracy

    Some beliefs have implications, but I don't think the beliefs we have been talking about do. But if they do, I don't know why you don't explain the causal mechanism by which thewig beliefs affect the housing market.
  11. Where do your colleagues (also in 20s) and friends live? You might consider places just outside prime, where 1 beds are more like 400-500k and are bought by affluent workers rather than the super-rich.
  12. Where did you get the idea that stamp duty might differe depending on whether the property is leasehold or freehold? I'm genuinely curious as I've heard this from someone else.
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