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We Are Facing Another Global Financial Crisis Of Epic Proportions

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We are on the precipice of another major global financial crisis of epic proportions and asset price bubbles all across the world, including the UK property bubble, are extremely vulnerable. As the crisis worsens in the next few month the London property bubble - as one of the most over inflated property bubbles on the entire globe - will finally implode with some major implication to the UK property market as a whole.

The signs of a global economy reaching the tipping point are becoming louder, more frequent and more severe:

* commodities have plummeted to lows not seen since 2002

* global shipping indices are dropping with negative year on year movements of up to 20%

* the oil price, as a gauge of global economic activity, is reaching lows not seen since the depth of the crisis of 2008/2009

* key exporting nations are in deep trouble including Australia, Canada, Brazil and much of the rest of South America

* consumer spending in the US, the key driver of US GDP, is contracting and major retail outlets are in trouble.

* the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are barely propped up by a few big players. The vast majority of publicly listed stocks in the US are in steep decline.

* the Chinese economy is in deep trouble with year on year exports as well as imports in negative

* after the RMB devaluation the global currency wars stepped up another notch and now the EM currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit and the Turkish Lira are in free fall. These shifts in the FX market could easily spiral into another currency crisis such as experienced in Asia in the lat 1990s.

* the RMB devaluation effectively means that China is exporting deflation to importing nations such as the US and the UK

* the Fed and the BoE are stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they raise rates they will strengthen the USD and GBP creating even more deflation. If they maintain interest rates or even lower rates they will have lost all credibility. After the SNB fiasco in the beginning of the year, trust in central banks will hit rock bottom and the central banking system is likely to unravel further.

* EMs and developed nations are facing a mountain of debt facilitated by the Fed's cheap money policy. The unwind in global credit facilities will unleash further havoc in the markets. I could go on ...

Under the conditions described above, asset price bubbles such as in equities, bonds and property are destined to implode. In the UK, the effects of the deteriorating global economy are already visible in the prime London property market with LSL Acad HPI reporting a staggering 18.6% year on year drop in the City of Westminster. Sales in this particular market are at rock bottom and will effectively halt within the next few months as the above conditions worsen. In the meantime London property developers are sitting on around 54.000 luxury flats coming on the market as reported by the FT in February this year. The subsequent supply glut can already be seen in prime postcodes such as SW8 and, more recently, SW1E. The panic in this particular segment of the market has already begun with more and more flats coming on the market with very few being sold, let alone being sold at asking price.

The forthcoming global financial crisis will be of epic proportions. Unlike in 2008/09, the central banks have no more ammo in their arsenal to prop up the markets. The UK property market, and the London property market in particular, will see a downtown not seen in a generation. Get ready and be prepared.

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We are on the precipice of another major global financial crisis of epic proportions and asset price bubbles all across the world, including the UK property bubble, are extremely vulnerable. As the crisis worsens in the next few month the London property bubble - as one of the most over inflated property bubbles on the entire globe - will finally implode with some major implication to the UK property market as a whole.

The signs of a global economy reaching the tipping point are becoming louder, more frequent and more severe:

* commodities have plummeted to lows not seen since 2002

* global shipping indices are dropping with negative year on year movements of up to 20%

* the oil price, as a gauge of global economic activity, is reaching lows not seen since the depth of the crisis of 2008/2009

* key exporting nations are in deep trouble including Australia, Canada, Brazil and much of the rest of South America

* consumer spending in the US, the key driver of US GDP, is contracting and major retail outlets are in trouble.

* the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are barely propped up by a few big players. The vast majority of publicly listed stocks in the US are in steep decline.

* the Chinese economy is in deep trouble with year on year exports as well as imports in negative

* after the RMB devaluation the global currency wars stepped up another notch and now the EM currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit and the Turkish Lira are in free fall. These shifts in the FX market could easily spiral into another currency crisis such as experienced in Asia in the lat 1990s.

* the RMB devaluation effectively means that China is exporting deflation to importing nations such as the US and the UK

* the Fed and the BoE are stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they raise rates they will strengthen the USD and GBP creating even more deflation. If they maintain interest rates or even lower rates they will have lost all credibility. After the SNB fiasco in the beginning of the year, trust in central banks will hit rock bottom and the central banking system is likely to unravel further.

* EMs and developed nations are facing a mountain of debt facilitated by the Fed's cheap money policy. The unwind in global credit facilities will unleash further havoc in the markets. I could go on ...

Under the conditions described above, asset price bubbles such as in equities, bonds and property are destined to implode. In the UK, the effects of the deteriorating global economy are already visible in the prime London property market with LSL Acad HPI reporting a staggering 18.6% year on year drop in the City of Westminster. Sales in this particular market are at rock bottom and will effectively halt within the next few months as the above conditions worsen. In the meantime London property developers are sitting on around 54.000 luxury flats coming on the market as reported by the FT in February this year. The subsequent supply glut can already be seen in prime postcodes such as SW8 and, more recently, SW1E. The panic in this particular segment of the market has already begun with more and more flats coming on the market with very few being sold, let alone being sold at asking price.

The forthcoming global financial crisis will be of epic proportions. Unlike in 2008/09, the central banks have no more ammo in their arsenal to prop up the markets. The UK property market, and the London property market in particular, will see a downtown not seen in a generation. Get ready and be prepared.

Nah, it'll be direct QE (or QE for the people)

The last few rounds of QE were for the banks. They'll be OK now.

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Nah, it'll be direct QE (or QE for the people)

The last few rounds of QE were for the banks. They'll be OK now.

QE for the banks would be political suicide. Perhaps even grounds for a revolution so I doubt we will have QE to prop up the banks.

I do agree though that they might launch QE for the people. They could this by transferring a certain amount to anyone with an NI number. It sounds crazy but these madmen will do anything to prop up the fiat currency regime a little longer.

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We are on the precipice of another major global financial crisis of epic proportions and asset price bubbles all across the world, including the UK property bubble, are extremely vulnerable. As the crisis worsens in the next few month the London property bubble - as one of the most over inflated property bubbles on the entire globe - will finally implode with some major implication to the UK property market as a whole.

The signs of a global economy reaching the tipping point are becoming louder, more frequent and more severe:

* commodities have plummeted to lows not seen since 2002

* global shipping indices are dropping with negative year on year movements of up to 20%

* the oil price, as a gauge of global economic activity, is reaching lows not seen since the depth of the crisis of 2008/2009

* key exporting nations are in deep trouble including Australia, Canada, Brazil and much of the rest of South America

* consumer spending in the US, the key driver of US GDP, is contracting and major retail outlets are in trouble.

* the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are barely propped up by a few big players. The vast majority of publicly listed stocks in the US are in steep decline.

* the Chinese economy is in deep trouble with year on year exports as well as imports in negative

* after the RMB devaluation the global currency wars stepped up another notch and now the EM currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit and the Turkish Lira are in free fall. These shifts in the FX market could easily spiral into another currency crisis such as experienced in Asia in the lat 1990s.

* the RMB devaluation effectively means that China is exporting deflation to importing nations such as the US and the UK

* the Fed and the BoE are stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they raise rates they will strengthen the USD and GBP creating even more deflation. If they maintain interest rates or even lower rates they will have lost all credibility. After the SNB fiasco in the beginning of the year, trust in central banks will hit rock bottom and the central banking system is likely to unravel further.

* EMs and developed nations are facing a mountain of debt facilitated by the Fed's cheap money policy. The unwind in global credit facilities will unleash further havoc in the markets. I could go on ...

Under the conditions described above, asset price bubbles such as in equities, bonds and property are destined to implode. In the UK, the effects of the deteriorating global economy are already visible in the prime London property market with LSL Acad HPI reporting a staggering 18.6% year on year drop in the City of Westminster. Sales in this particular market are at rock bottom and will effectively halt within the next few months as the above conditions worsen. In the meantime London property developers are sitting on around 54.000 luxury flats coming on the market as reported by the FT in February this year. The subsequent supply glut can already be seen in prime postcodes such as SW8 and, more recently, SW1E. The panic in this particular segment of the market has already begun with more and more flats coming on the market with very few being sold, let alone being sold at asking price.

The forthcoming global financial crisis will be of epic proportions. Unlike in 2008/09, the central banks have no more ammo in their arsenal to prop up the markets. The UK property market, and the London property market in particular, will see a downtown not seen in a generation. Get ready and be prepared.

Things do feel on edge at this moment. I sold all my FTSE 100 today, mostly sitting on cash now. As we have no inflation and no interest to speak of, I don't mind holding cash in these conditions. I just don't fancy chasing the quick money in this market, the returns aren't worth the risk.

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Nah, it'll be direct QE (or QE for the people)

The last few rounds of QE were for the banks. They'll be OK now.

Forgive my ignorance but wouldn't this just cause another asset price surge? I seriously hope they let the true crash happen this time, lets face it, it'll be brutal but in 5 years time we'll all be better off for it.

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Forgive my ignorance but wouldn't this just cause another asset price surge? I seriously hope they let the true crash happen this time, lets face it, it'll be brutal but in 5 years time we'll all be better off for it.

When all you've got is a hammer everything looks like a nail. There is no way they will not do more QE and just watch the TSHTF.

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Well, hedge fundey billionaire, Stanley Druckenmiller just bought a ton of gold, and it's his largest holding for the first time ever (reported 2 days ago). And his second largest holding is Facebook.

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Forgive my ignorance but wouldn't this just cause another asset price surge? I seriously hope they let the true crash happen this time, lets face it, it'll be brutal but in 5 years time we'll all be better off for it.

Possibly, although Keen recommends any for any "free" money if you have debts it goes to reducing those. So those without debt might get a lump sum to spend, although even those who get a debt reduction should in theory get more disposable income out of this measure.

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Keep an eye on the Russian Rouble - that might go parabolic - and then that is the trigger. You heard it here first! 70 Roubles to 1 USD is the key number.

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Edited by 200p

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When all you've got is a hammer everything looks like a nail. There is no way they will not do more QE and just watch the TSHTF.

I guess you're right, I don't think any of us would be surprised at what lengths they'd go to in propping the system up. Perhaps the question should be will QE for the people work in such a collapse? Would they hope people spend it or will people just bank it?

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Forgive my ignorance but wouldn't this just cause another asset price surge? I seriously hope they let the true crash happen this time, lets face it, it'll be brutal but in 5 years time we'll all be better off for it.

Good points. QE for the banks caused a massive influx into financial assets and property as you rightly allude to. The effect of this is that anyone who had equities, bonds or properties profited over the past few years. Yet the central banks will have realized by now that the so called wealth effect is nowhere to be seen. Quite the opposite, the global financial system is at the breaking point.

QE for the people (and I agree this would be that central banking system goes mad option) would be a nominal amount such as £1k for every taxpayer in the country. It would cause a surge in discretionary spending but it would certainly not cause more asset price bubble inflation, IMHO.

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We are on the precipice of another major global financial crisis of epic proportions and asset price bubbles all across the world, including the UK property bubble, are extremely vulnerable. As the crisis worsens in the next few month the London property bubble - as one of the most over inflated property bubbles on the entire globe - will finally implode with some major implication to the UK property market as a whole.

The signs of a global economy reaching the tipping point are becoming louder, more frequent and more severe:

* commodities have plummeted to lows not seen since 2002

* global shipping indices are dropping with negative year on year movements of up to 20%

* the oil price, as a gauge of global economic activity, is reaching lows not seen since the depth of the crisis of 2008/2009

* key exporting nations are in deep trouble including Australia, Canada, Brazil and much of the rest of South America

* consumer spending in the US, the key driver of US GDP, is contracting and major retail outlets are in trouble.

* the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are barely propped up by a few big players. The vast majority of publicly listed stocks in the US are in steep decline.

* the Chinese economy is in deep trouble with year on year exports as well as imports in negative

* after the RMB devaluation the global currency wars stepped up another notch and now the EM currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit and the Turkish Lira are in free fall. These shifts in the FX market could easily spiral into another currency crisis such as experienced in Asia in the lat 1990s.

* the RMB devaluation effectively means that China is exporting deflation to importing nations such as the US and the UK

* the Fed and the BoE are stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they raise rates they will strengthen the USD and GBP creating even more deflation. If they maintain interest rates or even lower rates they will have lost all credibility. After the SNB fiasco in the beginning of the year, trust in central banks will hit rock bottom and the central banking system is likely to unravel further.

* EMs and developed nations are facing a mountain of debt facilitated by the Fed's cheap money policy. The unwind in global credit facilities will unleash further havoc in the markets. I could go on ...

Under the conditions described above, asset price bubbles such as in equities, bonds and property are destined to implode. In the UK, the effects of the deteriorating global economy are already visible in the prime London property market with LSL Acad HPI reporting a staggering 18.6% year on year drop in the City of Westminster. Sales in this particular market are at rock bottom and will effectively halt within the next few months as the above conditions worsen. In the meantime London property developers are sitting on around 54.000 luxury flats coming on the market as reported by the FT in February this year. The subsequent supply glut can already be seen in prime postcodes such as SW8 and, more recently, SW1E. The panic in this particular segment of the market has already begun with more and more flats coming on the market with very few being sold, let alone being sold at asking price.

The forthcoming global financial crisis will be of epic proportions. Unlike in 2008/09, the central banks have no more ammo in their arsenal to prop up the markets. The UK property market, and the London property market in particular, will see a downtown not seen in a generation. Get ready and be prepared.

100% correct, guaranteed.

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Things do feel on edge at this moment. I sold all my FTSE 100 today, mostly sitting on cash now. As we have no inflation and no interest to speak of, I don't mind holding cash in these conditions. I just don't fancy chasing the quick money in this market, the returns aren't worth the risk.

Wise move indeed. I dont think you will regret this one bit. Make sure to keep your cash in small denominations in a safe at home and NOT in the banking system. The EU recently passed legislation that would allow them bail ins as of 1st of January 2016: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-17/greek-deposits-become-eligible-bail-january-1-2016

They did this on the sly and once the shit storm really begins I would make sure to keep only smaller amounts in the banks. The likely hood of bail ins increases day by day. Get ready and be prepared. I think being in hard cash or precious metals is the best you can do. Well done!

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I guess you're right, I don't think any of us would be surprised at what lengths they'd go to in propping the system up. Perhaps the question should be will QE for the people work in such a collapse? Would they hope people spend it or will people just bank it?

Good questions. But if things turn out the way I think they will, people will certainly not want to "bank" their cash.

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Yes but when? WhEN?

I don't think we can get through September or October without some major systemic breakdowns. November or December at the latest, IMHO. All the elements are lining up for the perfect storm.

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How much time do you reckon we have left? I honestly cant see 2015 ending without a major shit storm.

Other than a total punt, I can't see us getting through 2016 without some major event. I thought Greece might have been it this year but appears we navigated that. Q3 2016 is my guess. I can just see the momentum gathering. Volatility is a good indicator of a crash and there is a lot of turbulence at the moment.

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What's the likelihood of banks forcing BTLers to sell-up in order to get them off their books I wonder?

I'm sure I remember reading somewhere that with many a BTL loan a bank can just ask for the money back (or perhaps I've just mis-remembered).

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Keep an eye on the Russian Rouble - that might go parabolic - and then that is the trigger. You heard it here first! 70 Roubles to 1 USD is the key number.

I agree that we need to keep an eye on currencies but I do not believe it is only the Rouble we need to look out for. At the time of writing the currencies of Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, Chile, Columbia as well as other EMs are in free fall. Quite literally free fall.

Other commodity currencies such as CAD and AUD are also in deep trouble. This shit storm is global and no one will be immune.

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Other than a total punt, I can't see us getting through 2016 without some major event. I thought Greece might have been it this year but appears we navigated that. Q3 2016 is my guess. I can just see the momentum gathering. Volatility is a good indicator of a crash and there is a lot of turbulence at the moment.

I agree with pretty much everything you say but one small correction: volatility is EXTREMELY LOW at the moment. This is usually a pretty bad sign just before a stock market crash. It is literally the calm before the storm.

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