Is It Time To Give Up ?

[NewBrit]

Maybe; it could be worse. In that instance, for a retirement apartment.. you get the grounds tended to, can use washing machines/tumble driers in the basement... it seems ok, especially for a retirement apartment for £80K in nice area... (for downsizers who unload their homes into the buyers pushing-and-falling-over-themselves to pay high prices frenzy) close to GP and hospital and surrounded by mega-housing-bubble-priced housing... and hopefully the sinking fund for repairs is well funded too.

This one... not much margin in it.. from last sale... unless they're hoping for another bidding war. It's a sign for me... how much "buyer's remorse" is out there, for those who've been buying at ever higher prices into the frenzy. I'll buy when it's sure fire buyer's glee.

_____

Guide Price £1,325,000

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34270074.html

Last sold: £1,200,000 on 09 Jun 2014

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=33901179&sale=51307514&country=england

Previous archived listing (2014 bidding war?)

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property-history/83-bainton-road/oxford/ox2-7ag/32477855

Planning doc suggest current owner/flipper lives in super-prime Kensington.. in a property bought for £3m+ in 2003.

search 14/02937/CPU

[PDF - one time generated key use only?] http://public.oxford.gov.uk/online-applications/files/FBC25DC3BD09E8817C4525CE368B4F98/pdf/14_02937_CPU-APPLICATIONFORMNOPERSONALDATA-1518181.pdf

So they are asking 8830 pounds per square meter. That is insane. So the average UK worker can only buy 3 square meters of this house with a year's worth of wages. That can't be right.

[Assume The Opposite]

I'm close to buying I think. Have 220 k saved up now.

I think I've decided now that I know nothing about the future in terms of where the market is going.

What I do know is that I don't need a 25 year mortgage to get a modest house, so this negates much of the risk I think?

Having said that although I am looking on rightmove every few days, I'm more likely to wait until 3rd quarter, after the summer silly seaons, and the election. But if I can get an offer accepted now then why not?

If you lend me half I'll pay you back over 25 years with interest? I can buy a nice two bedroom house for £110.

[shindigger]

Shit just got real for Dave.

Bastards and jocks everywhere.

There must be some hope.

[zugzwang]

Shit just got real for Dave.

Bastards and jocks everywhere.

There must be some hope.

The City of London and the BoE will never let an EU referendum take place. In short order Cameron will be replaced by Johnson and a final orgy of looting and scavanging will take place.

There is no hope.

[Maynardgravy]

The City of London and the BoE will never let an EU referendum take place. In short order Cameron will be replaced by Johnson and a final orgy of looting and scavanging will take place.

There is no hope.

There will be a referendum.

It will just be rigged.

[Venger]

We're surely getting close to HPC with all this defeatism - although it's what you get when you keep making excuses over last few years for those paying ever prices, as victim-borrowers/media/couldn't expect a crash/just wanted a home. You can't have it each and every way. Just "a landlord only HPC"... it doesn't work that way you fantasists.

Conservatives can't insulate the market from global market forces. They may have even positioned to allow it play out.

Look at some of the evidence.. higher stamp duty at higher end.. MMR... some of Carney's statements.

[winkie]

[Venger]

Half of all mortgage borrowers on the SVR of circa 4%+ already.

[winkie]

Half of all mortgage borrowers on the SVR of circa 4%+ already.

Interest only........interest rates and house renting look cheap when only paying the interest.

[Venger]

Interest only........interest rates and house renting look cheap when only paying the interest.

Are there many such new Interest Only deals out there...? Just because many are on such deals doesn't lock in value... might restrict supply a bit... just need a nudge for sellers accepting less (those not on ultra low deals.. or wanting to cash in), with a turn of the financial markets.

5 million borrowers on standard variable rate mortgages now averaging >4.5%.

Tick tock.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/11526826/Are-you-one-of-5m-borrowers-whose-mortgage-rate-is-going-up.html

HPC Nomadd may have been cautious vs another bout of mad HPI in his London area, but he's still well-positioned for new HPC, and his math in 2015, vs high valued mid-prime houses, scares me even more now. They don't look cheap to me vs potential for big capital losses into a HPC.

HPC Nomadd (2012)

Well, based on the loan value for standard SVR mortgage I've just looked at on my Banks website, you would actually be looking at £400k interest on a £400k loan over the next 25 years (that's if interest rates stay as low as they currently are - which I don't think anyone believes will happen.)

Now, look at some of the daft £450k terraced houses in Hale we've been discussing on the Hale & Alty thread. I can easily see those dropping by at least 10-20% in value over the next 5 years; maybe much more. But even at just over a 10% fall and no rises in interest rates, that's your £50k deposit gone (plus the loss of the interest it could have earned in an ISA/etc..) And in the first 5 years of mortgage payments, at £2.6-2.7k per month? Well, you've only paid off £26k of your house. But remember the interest on the loan? That's cost you another £121k in just the first 5 years. So, after 5 years, you are ~£180k down on a £450k house - if interest rates don't go up at all and your house only drops in value by about 12%. The reality is likely to be something much more severe, IMHO - a 30% fall in prices and interest rates at just 2% higher than today gives a loss of over £300k on a £450k house in just five years. And what have you got for that £180k-£300k of investment? Just £26k worth of equity in a house (and minus all your other costs for 5 years - moving costs, stamp duty, maintenance, etc., you don't even have that!)

So that, to me at least, is what is so frightening about buying in the current market. Not a single young person under the age of 35 I speak to can afford to buy at current prices. And for those that do, the doubling and trebling of houses prices needed to wipe out the enormous amount of interest they'd paid in the first 5-10 years of ownership is just not going to happen. Scary stuff indeed.

[Eddie_George]

Peter Oborne ‏@OborneTweets

Evidence beginning to emerge that strong Labour vote in London down to young people trying to drag down house prices.

https://twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/596700584264208384

Edited May 8, 2015 by Eddie_George

[Bear Goggles]

.

There is no hope.

It's over.

Democracy has delivered rentierism.

Waiting for the market to deliver some kind of black swan event to cause a reset is as futile as the Marxists waiting for their 'inevitable' fall of capitalism.

The rise of neofeudalism will continue until enough people want do what it takes to stop it. That ain't now.

[wherebee]

Mods - can we move this thread to the emigration forum?

All of you smart people who I really respect due to your ability to think for yourselves, even if sometimes I disagree with you - it's over. 5 more years of landlord support as government policy.

Come join me overseas and have a life instead.

[campervanman]

Is it time to give up? Maybe time for those who have been calling a hpc for the past 10 years to to do what the Labour Party are having to face up to and accept that a return to the 1970's just ain't gonna happen and that everything that made sense then makes little sense now.

[StainlessSteelCat]

I think you have to plan on the basis that it might not happen, but hope for the best now.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Is it time to give up? Maybe time for those who have been calling a hpc for the past 10 years to to do what the Labour Party are having to face up to and accept that a return to the 1970's just ain't gonna happen and that everything that made sense then makes little sense now.

It's different this time.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I think you have to plan on the basis that it might not happen, but hope for the best now.

Yes again,.the crash strted in 2007, that was the black Swan event, why do you think rates are still at nothing?

What we have seen since is government intervention in a free market to save their banker chums. It's criminal if you ask me.

This intervention has made things much worse And the market is hanging by a thread supported by how interest rate pub prime mortgages, government deposit guarantees, media propaganda and idiots.

they managed to create a pre election localised bubble using tens of billions of pounds, this is not sustainable And it was running out of steam well before the election.

Because of their actions we now need another sustained nominal fall, this will either come from another credit event or when the us raises interest rates.

if you don't believe me look at the graph on tho front page and via nationwidep Un-affordability graph.

The buy to leech scum are all in now and this is not going to end well for them.

London has already started falling and there are nothing but cracks Everywhere.

No matter what government we got the bankers would be pulling their strings.

Nothings changed other than we know for definite the tories will do anything to keep the banks gong, whereas we not know what labour would do,but we do really.

Edited May 9, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Roman Roady]

Cheer up every one.

If it were left to the British political elite an HPC would NEVER happen.

It wouldn't happen for Blair, Brown or the Coalition.

But it is not up to them as Thatcher and Major found out.

Therefore it doesn't really matter who is managing us on behalf of our unelected masters.

It is world events that will deliver an HPC...either nominally via IR rises or via a Stirling crisis.

If we are to avoid either of those 2 then the government needs to cut borrowing to spend on welfare.

The central bankers of the world bought the politicians time...that is all.

There is no way out, houses in the UK are too expensive, don't be sucked in.

[StainlessSteelCat]

Yes again,.the crash strted in 2007, that was the black Swan event, why do you think rates are still at nothing?

What we have seen since is government intervention in a free market to save their banker chums. It's criminal if you ask me.

This intervention has made things much worse And the market is hanging by a thread supported by how interest rate pub prime mortgages, government deposit guarantees, media propaganda and idiots.

they managed to create a pre election localised bubble using tens of billions of pounds, this is not sustainable And it was running out of steam well before the election.

Because of their actions we now need another sustained nominal fall, this will either come from another credit event or when the us raises interest rates.

if you don't believe me look at the graph on tho front page and via nationwidep Un-affordability graph.

The buy to leech scum are all in now and this is not going to end well for them.

London has already started falling and there are nothing but cracks Everywhere.

No matter what government we got the bankers would be pulling their strings.

Nothings changed other than we know for definite the tories will do anything to keep the banks gong, whereas we not know what labour would do,but we do really.

Agreed, the entire edifice is ripe for collapsing of its own accord, and there's a good chance it will. But it cannot be guaranteed given previous interventions. I started visiting this site in 2004/5 - and developed a plan B. Otherwise it's like depending on a lottery win to get rich (although the odds of a HPC are rather higher). Don't hitch your future to things you cannot control alone. If owning is important to you, make a five to ten year plan for moving to a cheaper area, raising more cash or getting out of the UK completely. If (when!) we get a HPC as well, you'll be far better positioned to take advantage too.

[renting til I die]

Agreed, the entire edifice is ripe for collapsing of its own accord, and there's a good chance it will. But it cannot be guaranteed given previous interventions. I started visiting this site in 2004/5 - and developed a plan B. Otherwise it's like depending on a lottery win to get rich (although the odds of a HPC are rather higher). Don't hitch your future to things you cannot control alone. If owning is important to you, make a five to ten year plan for moving to a cheaper area, raising more cash or getting out of the UK completely. If (when!) we get a HPC as well, you'll be far better positioned to take advantage too.

I agree and I also agree with wherebee's view that the opportunities quite likely are located overseas, as working in this country just doesn't pay any more. We can't rely on a satisfactory reset occurring in our lifetimes, well at least some of the older members of the forum! I'm studying which should open up more oversea opportunities within my company, I see quite a few job pop-up from time to time and I'm half way though the course, 3 years to go! So renting for the next few years is the way to go for me and who knows what might happen over that time frame.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I've just had a look on rightmove for Northamptonshire for this Week, browsing through the listing I think I've identified the problem with the UK housing market.

THE INSANE PRICES.

2007 peak price per square foot was about 220 quid. I'm seeing really rubbish in poor areas going up for 300 quid plus.

2007 asking Prices were mad, 2015 is a whole new ball game. When this baby blows, this year IMHO, it's going to be carnage.

Even if the financial terrorism and mortgage deals that are too good to be true was making me buy I'd struggle to find something affordable for my family to live in now, whereas renting...

Edited May 9, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Fatboy4]

I'm kind of giving up in that im giving up working in the rat race as it gets me absolutely nowhere, and im looking into going the self employed route in the next few months to get tax credits and housing benefits for the next couple of years.

If anyone knows how to play the system via this route i would be grateful for some advice.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I'm kind of giving up in that im giving up working in the rat race as it gets me absolutely nowhere, and im looking into going the self employed route in the next few months to get tax credits and housing benefits for the next couple of years.

If anyone knows how to play the system via this route i would be grateful for some advice.

I agree with the sentiment, you'd be better off leaving for a few years. come back when I'm in charge.

[Sandwiches33]

I'm kind of giving up in that im giving up working in the rat race as it gets me absolutely nowhere, and im looking into going the self employed route in the next few months to get tax credits and housing benefits for the next couple of years.

If anyone knows how to play the system via this route i would be grateful for some advice.

TBH I wouldnt want to rely on GOV for anything at the moment, as it starts to drown in debt it is going to sacrifice anything and everyone to protect itself. I can understand not putting any effort , it is heart breaking watching ******wits do nothing and get massive payoffs. In the coming years you will be much better placed to have a special skill or earning capacity. I would much rather be a skilled mechanic than a low skilled owner of a 500k house for what is coming.

Dont worry most of these peopel are ******ing morons, if I make 100k flipping a house I would go on holiday then carefully invest the rest. These folk piss through it, couple of new cars meals out and designer jeans and its all spent. I know a couple of folk came into property windfalls, they done nothing with it just slowly pissed it away on designer couches and shite.

Patience is all you need, just wait it out, it has already started turning.

[dances with sheeple]

TBH I wouldnt want to rely on GOV for anything at the moment, as it starts to drown in debt it is going to sacrifice anything and everyone to protect itself. I can understand not putting any effort , it is heart breaking watching ******wits do nothing and get massive payoffs. In the coming years you will be much better placed to have a special skill or earning capacity. I would much rather be a skilled mechanic than a low skilled owner of a 500k house for what is coming.

Dont worry most of these peopel are ******ing morons, if I make 100k flipping a house I would go on holiday then carefully invest the rest. These folk piss through it, couple of new cars meals out and designer jeans and its all spent. I know a couple of folk came into property windfalls, they done nothing with it just slowly pissed it away on designer couches and shite.

Patience is all you need, just wait it out, it has already started turning.

Modern Britain Eh? Some people are beyond help.