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Everything posted by campervanman

  1. campervanman


    Sterling recovers as Brexit fears recede. http://www.euroexchangeratenews.co.uk/pound-sterling-gbp-euro-eur-exchange-rate-soars-brexit-bets-drop-even-17710 Seems the markets think it's nearly over.
  2. Well I have seen 14 world cups and I cannot ever remember England being favourites, even in 1966. Anyhow, it will soon be June 24th some people are on the pitch, they think it's all over, it is now. Another 30 years of hurt for the Brexiteers coming up.
  3. Bruce, put your money on Brexit. A good hedge against Sterling collapse if it happens.
  4. campervanman


    If you believe that put your house deposit on Brexit then. You won't of course because you know that in a 2 horse race the bookies don't give you free money.
  5. campervanman


    Kinnock was never 5-1 on to win.
  6. As a Remain supporter, I urge every voter to watch Brexit the movie.
  7. Why the 1% are so excited about Brexit http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/brexit-the-movie-review-sam-kriss-martin-durkin Good review.
  8. Latest odds https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result Remain now 1-5. It's in the bag.
  9. When all the major arguments are lost there are aleays the cospiracy theories.
  10. campervanman


    Fujitsu warn of Brexit risk to investment http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36329178 Yet another overseas investor states the obvious.
  11. campervanman


    How the pro Brexit UK media is distorting the truth http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/19/inaccurate-pro-brexit-infacts-investigation-media-reports-eu-referendum
  12. Be more like Canada. Interesting and could work if the UK had the same land mass as Canada, a similar population to Canada and Canadian natural resources. As for Sterling, I got €1.42 before the possibility of Brexit became real. At the back end of last year the markets were signalling implied volatility of over 10% linked to Brexit. The USD/Sterling situation has been clouded by the expectations of rate rises in the US not being fulfilled. Most commentators view that 10% is a true measure of the Brexit risk on Sterling since 2015. If the UK would not be able to defend itself against a united Eurozone then why should anyone believe that an isolated UK could defend itself against any of the other similar sized trading blocs that the outers seem to think will give the UK everything it wants in trade deals? Better to remain as at least an associate member of the EU with the partial protection that offers than as a small and relatively insignificant economic entity that has very little in the way of resources and is vulnerable to being bullied by those countries it needs to supply it with the basics and those who it needs to keep it afloat financially.
  13. You must be mates with Arron Banks. Do you drink the same Champers as he does, the kind that costs an aberage UK workers monthly salary? Billionaire Banks like you thinks giving up a months salary is worth Brexit. Well he would say that wouldn't he. He wont be affected.
  14. That is another Leave campaign lie. The UK has been on the "winning"side 2466 times and on the "losing" side 72 times. Of the 2466 times, the UK will have had influence and input in how final regulations were drafted. Many of those 2466 that the UK will have agreed with were agreed by the UK because the UK had input prior to the vote that changed the final draft and met the needs of the UK. The leave campaign never mention the 2466 only the 72. https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts-behind-claims-uk-influence/ The argument that the UK does not have influence is false and based upon use of selective data that does not represent the full picture. Maybe one of the leavers could point out the sort of regulations that those 72 votes relate to. If not, here is an example of the type of EU regulations that UKIP and pro brexit tory mp's try to vote down: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/these-are-the-british-meps-who-voted-against-plans-to-crack-down-on-corporate-tax-evasion-a6982271.html
  15. Wrong. The risk of Brexit ( currently around 45% I believe) is priced into the exchange rate. The falls in Sterling since Brexit became a possibility have been around 10% which would indicate further falls of > 10% should Brexit occur.
  16. I cannot find a link right now but anecdotally I can tell you that I have met many Brits in Spain who rent a place for 11 months a year to get around Spanish residency checks and are to all intent and purpose residing in Spain whilst still being counted as UK resident. This is well known and widespread on the Costas. These people are either retired or working in the black economy in Spain. Some will be paying taxes in the UK. I'll post a link when I find it but as with all unofficial numbers, the fact that they are unofficial makes them less than easy to track down, both when it comes to Brits abroad and non Brits in the UK. It is however unrealistic to assume that unofficial and/ or uncounted immigration exists in the UK but not elsewhere in the EU.
  17. What with, devalued pounds? You assume that all those companies will still be making cars in the UK if Brexit happens. Many are based in the UK not to sell to the UK market but because they have access to the EU single market. If that is in danger then there is no certainty they will stay. Maybe the Germans could start building Trabants again especially for the post Brexit UK market
  18. I'm sure the UK can do as many if not more trade deals than Chile with the rest of the world. It is not the number of deals that is important though, it is what those deals contain. Getting trade deals that enter the UK into a race to the bottom would be pretty easy.You only have to look at the recent UK grovelling to the Chinese to get a picture of what sort of deals the UK would get with the major players. You need to face the fact that the UK has little in the way of natural resources and needs to import most of the basics, the probability that much of the UK service sector ( by far it's biggest export component) will decamp to France and Germany in the event of Brexit and that the UK economy is basically a Ponzi scheme built on fake house prices and unsustainable consumer debt. None of those factors give the UK much of a bargaining position when it comes to negotiating more favourable trade deals than could be achieved as part of the worlds largest economy, the EU.
  19. "Evidence suggests imapct on wages has been small, and is most likely to affect lower skilled workers" "Immigrants pay more in taxes than they consume in welfare or public services" "Immigrants may add pressure on public services but also contribute to the funding and providing those services, particularly the NHS" "Increased numbers of pupils with English as a second language doesn't have any negative impact on English speaking children and if anything, schools with more non native speakers do slightly better" https://fullfact.org/europe/immigration-eu-referendum/
  20. EU passport holders are already checked, if they were not how do you explain the fact that thousands of EU citizens who are deemed undesirable have been turned back at the border? Meanwhile many more illegal immigrants could enter the UK if co-operation from the EU ceased.
  21. The official emigration figures are unreliable too. There are at least twice as many Brits living in Spain than the official figures show for example.
  22. I am not talking about renegotiating, I am talking about the UK having a benefit system similar to other EU countries that acts as a disincentive to immigration. The UK can change it's benefit and health cover systems to match those of other EU countries without having to negotiate anything. The added bonus would be that it might incentivise UK born scroungers to get off their ar5es and do the jobs that immigrants currently do.
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