Bear Goggles

Well, Roubini thinks they're going to wimp out and stop raising soon. But IRs are not likely to go down, and 4-5% inflation is still a lot higher than we're used to, if recession hits hard that's still stagflation. So still plenty of scope for continued falls in asset prices.

Nope. All covid restrictions removed as of end of May apparently. Not sure if that's the reality on the ground, but I'll find out I guess. Edit: Don't get me wrong btw, I love Wales, just not enough to spend £2.5k to stay in a small cottage for a week in the rain.

Yep. I got completely out of energy about a month ago. Sharp fall in inflation later in the year I reckon. But not back to where it was, and the trend is probably still up in the long term. Still lots of pain for the average person over the next 12 months too, and a liquidation of assets for the most exposed. SNAFU.

Ha ha. Yeah, getting out there might be a problem. Still, I'm sure we'll find a way. Petrol prices not an issue - we have an EV. But I'm not planning on driving it unless I have to.

Yeah, but is it negative vs your annual wage increase? That's the only thing that matters.

Yep, the data I mentioned above is mainly products rather than services. And inventory is up, so it's not "supply chain issues".

(double post)

We were going to rent a farmhouse in Wales with some friends this summer. When I looked in over xmas it was £2,500 minimum for anything vaguely decent that could accommodate 2 families for the week. Still cramped, not near a beach or anything, and it'll probably rain the whole week. We're off to Italy instead, similar cost, but a massive villa with a pool, near the coast, and the weather will be nice. I just can't understand why anyone would pay that for a holiday in the rainy UK now that you can fly again.

Slightly OT but related. One of my clients works in market intelligence, collecting and processing industry sales data in part of the leisure sector (I probably shouldn't be any more specific than that). The preliminary Q2 data has just come in and it's bad, like, really bad, and Q2 is usually the best Q for this particular sub-sector. But it's -25% YOY, and -20% vs pre-covid. Looks like things are turning sour quickly, it's either a temporary blip or the beginning of something worse. But given the analysis above, it's probably the latter.

There is a possibility that this is just the regular summer lull and it’ll go mental again in September. We’ll have to wait and see.

Nothing to worry about, they’re just experiencing a transitory period of industrial action.

A wise move. It was unedifying.

Agree. Looking backwards, it's quite stark how much they DIDN'T intervene in the 90s. They just let it crash and let repossessions happen. Why? Perhaps they were less worried about systemic risk in the financial system than post 2008. Or perhaps homeowners were less of a defined voter base for the government? Who knows? Probably a bit of both.

Some of you might remember that I was whinging about having been outbid on two properties during the spring. One was on for £650k, we offered £670k, it went for £690k. No worries, there's another one around the corner we liked better. On for £730k, we offered £750k, someone swooped in and bid £850k - holy shit, it's insane out there! Anyway, that was April and now it's June. A house on for offers over £500k - too small for us, but I looked at it all the same, didn't make an offer. The EA just called saying it's been reduced to £475k, and they'd be willing to "consider offers for a quick sale". We're not going to offer - it's too small for us, an almost identical house on the same street was on for offers over £500k in April and bid up to £560k (we didn't offer on that one either) I can say that the market turned. The frenzy is over. Let's see where we go from here.

Seems like an easy one to extend though, right? HTB 2.0 - "World-beating help for first time buyers"