Bear Goggles

Yes, I broadly agree, I think all things being equal, if you are able to preserve your current level of income/ wealth, then there will be some decent discounts to be had in the next couple of years, but I'm talking 20-30% max most of the time, in a few select cases (like your caravan example) maybe 50%+, but as a general rule if you don't have the money to buy the assets you want at a -25% discount, then you probably won't be able to take advantage. Which takes us back to the my original point. There is going to be a massive gap between the winners and losers during this next period.

Of course there will be action take by govt. to mitigate repossessions and homelessness. But just like the furlough scheme, it will have upper limits and won't accommodate all scenarios, e.g.: What about Air BnBs? What about second homes? What about landlords who can't find tenants with enough money to cover their mortgages? What about empty new builds? There'll be enough gaps to cause a significant number of assets to come on the market.

Yes. I agree it is a kind of class system, a "Covid cast system" perhaps? One set of people are largely unaffected financially: Pensioners are insulated (again), but are scared of getting infected. They're fine unless or until inflation picks up, then they'll be screwed. Middle class professionals WFH - often on full salaries - saving on travel costs and the cost of holidays and eating out. Key workers like nurses and bin men are working full time and getting paid as normal. But there's a massive rump of people who are in trouble: Furloughed professionals who are going to be made redundant as soon as the government scheme is wound up, there'll be millions of them. Small business owners who will have no business when this is over. Low paid gig economy workers in the hospitality and tourism industries. The sheer number of people who are going to find their whole industry no longer exists is going be huge. There will be forced sales of personal assets. Houses and cars. Along with a load of assets from company wind-ups. I've got my eye on a Tesla Model S for my next car - I'm sure they'll be a load of those being handed back in the next year or so. It doesn't need everyone to be in trouble to cause a glut of supply. And it's coming. It's probably 12-18 months out, but it's coming big time.

Yep. I never thought I'd say it, but it's on this time. I wouldn't like to predict the % falls, or the speed of those falls, and it will vary in different parts of the country, and across different property types, but it is very much going to happen this time. By the time this is has played out, everyone will know someone who's lost out big time, tales of woe that will depress the appetite for taking on debt for many years to come.

Lol. "Fully Detached Coach House" Client expectation: Client's budget:

"Hey hun, we've got the Mail photo shoot today, make sure you wear those trendy trousers I bought you from H&M, and remember to polish your loafers" "What the short ones? I'll put a nice pair of socks on too then" "No, you're supposed to wear them without socks, remember?" "But, what about my ankles? Won't I get cold feet?" "Oh don't start that again, you said you'd get cold feet after we put the offer in on that new build we hadn't even seen during a global pandemic, but it was fine".

Same here. Most people in my peer group are still working full time from home. I know are some freelancers and contractors who have been laid off, and I know some business owners in affected industries who are bricking it, but I don’t know anyone sitting at home furloughed on 80% and loving it. That said, I’m probably not typical, and most people I know are in professional careers. If I was getting 80% for not doing my McJob, I’d definitely be saying “I’m lovin’ it”. I suspect a lot of retired people want lockdown to remain too, they are at high risk from the virus, and zero risk from loss of income. They are also a core voting demographic.

Hmm... it’s not the employees who decide whether they get put on furlough though is it? It’s the employers. So, it seems like they may be punishing the wrong people. I get that the logic might be - make it hard for people so they pile on pressure to end the lockdown, but that could easily backfire and become - create mass hardship and potential civil unrest, while boosting viral transmission and deaths, increasing calls for retaining lockdown. Sounds like too much of a gamble to me. I think this is much more simple. It’s a battle of ideologies - the right like to see the unemployed as lazy free loaders, while the left like to see them as an oppressed class with basic rights. The narrative of incentives has to be re-established now, or the narrative of rights might start to take hold, and ideas like a UBI, or wealth taxes might enter the realm of acceptable debate.

I have two friends who run separate corporate events businesses. SMEs 50-100 employees each. As you can imagine, physical events have stopped. Online events are much less profitable. They have both Independently followed broadly the same path: April: Furlough about 30% of staff, reschedule upcoming events to the autumn. May: Cancel autumn’s events, shift to online events, furlough another 30% of staff and plan for 70-80% staff redundancies starting in June. Staff turnover is high in the events business so there are very few staff who’ve been there more than 2 years meaning the redundancy bill will be low. Getting out of expensive venue bookings for cancelled events without paying up is another matter. The idea that cutting furlough payments from 80%-60% is going to more people back to work is ridiculous. The only thing that is going to get more people back to work is ending the lockdown, but that in itself is not going to give people the confidence to start gathering together in large groups, regardless of the actual consequences of doing so.

Sorry, I couldn’t resist. No hard feelings

Lol. Did you read that on Facebook? ”some of my friends will copy and paste this into there status, most won’t. A mate of mine works for the EU and he said...” Shared by Blitz Spirit Britain and 4 others.

“It’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism”. Capital controls is the other unthinkable to look out for over the coming weeks.

Moving the conversation back on topic, here’s my economic impact of Covid19 anecdotes: Our cleaners turned up yesterday as usual. They clean for lots people in the area, I’m assuming plenty of elderly, 50% of their customers have cancelled. They are obviously self employed, said: “It’s like a bad flu, if you catch it, you’re off for a week, if you self isolate for a month, you starve”. Daughter’s friend’s parents have a couple of flats in London on short term lets - business customers apparently. “Accidental LLs” (lol) from not selling their flats after buying the family home and moving away. Both tenants moved out last week and they have no takers from April. Desperately on phone to agents trying to get long term tenants in at “a massively discounted rent”. No takers as of yesterday.

Any bog roll? None in my local Waitrose this afternoon. What’s the matter with people? Are they literally going to spend 2 weeks in quarantine shitting themselves? Arsepocolypse Now!

I’ve got two friends who run separate corporate event / conference businesses and things are bad. They say they are going to have to start making redundancies if things don’t start picking up by the end of March and fear for the viability of their businesses if it knocks out the entire summer season. I can’t imagine many people a booking cruises right now either!