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House Price Crash Forum

Bear Goggles

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Everything posted by Bear Goggles

  1. It’s called “thinking outside the box”, it’s something we southern metropolitan elite are great at, and it’s exactly what Brexit needs to be a success. Those plucky northerners may not have a job at Nissan anymore, but they can always make money by renting out their whippets or something. They just need to “imagineer”.
  2. We’d prefer not to eat shit, but if we want to be free to decide whether or not not to eat shit, we’re going to have to eat shit. Impeccable logic.
  3. Believe me, quite a lot of people are looking back to the 1970s. But yes, there are also the free market advocates ushering in trade tariffs with our biggest trading partners. Much less contradictory.
  4. That’s what the Brexiters wanted though isn’t it? ”Everything was great back in the 70s before we joined the EU, but don’t vote for that Jeremy Corbyn, or he’ll take us back to the 70s” Or something.
  5. 12. Take up dogging With the EU’s bureaucratic customs checks causing huge tailbacks across the country, there’ll be plenty of bored lorry drivers looking for a bit of action to pass the long hours waiting in a flooded lorry park. You could also boost our economy by providing work for British VD clinics.
  6. 11. Eat your own testicles Now that we’ll be free of the EU’s draconian regulations on food standards, you can do your bit for the British economy by eating your own great British testicles. Let’s face it, if you read the Daily Mail you’re probably over 70 so you won’t be needing them anymore.
  7. This was my favourite one: 4 Suck it up! With no 'level playing field' agreement, Britain will be able to ditch EU rules, such as the one that limits the power of vacuum cleaners to 900-watts. So if the UK repeals such red tape, you'll be able send a message to Brussels about their regulations by buying a model up to the old 1,600-watt limit. Just what I’ve always wanted. Not sure who sells 1600 watt vacuum cleaners, maybe Dyson will start selling them now they’ve off shored their previously British workforce.
  8. That’s sooooo 2010, you need to get with the program man. It’s all about bureaucracy and state aid now. Kent border checks and red walls. Charity begins at home, level up. Literally everything this government is doing is about spending more, not less, and the voters are lapping it up.
  9. Yep, company insolvency is a lagging indicator. We've also got quarterly commercial rents becoming due at the end of Dec, all into the backdrop of an escalating winter lockdown. Q1 2021 is going to be an utter shitshow.
  10. Very interesting, yes. Comfirms my view that (regrettably) liberalism is on the back foot. That a draconian, authoritarian surveillance state like the CCP can be regarded as “small government”, simply on the basis of GDP share, is in complete contradiction to all of the associated benefits of classical liberalism described in that lecture. It demonstrates, as is eluded to by the lecturer, that “what works” economically is not necessarily synonymous with a free society in any form that we might recognise.
  11. Yes. Big government should get out of the way and be more like... er... China.🤔
  12. The polls aren’t looking too bad for them though are they? Remember, there is a large quorum of pensioners who aren’t affected by the economics of any of this. So long as those people can be kept angry about things like immigrants and statues, the Tories will remain high in the polls. Economically, nothing can’t touch them short of inflation picking up.
  13. Yeah, I did ask that, but apparently there’s still enough contract work around too. He does Thames Valley btw, Reading, Slough, Bracknell etc. Dunno if that’s representative of other areas too.
  14. I spoke to a recruitment agent I know yesterday. Specialises in IT. He said times are tough even though there are plenty of IT related job vacancies in the south east. He said the main problem is that no one is moving jobs. So he can’t find candidates to fill vacancies. No one wants to risk leaving a secure job to start a 6 month probation again, even for a more senior role.
  15. Yes. I’ve always found that argument strangely Marxist though. “The fact the collapse hasn’t happened yet and the system has just become even more debauched, proves that when it does come, it will be even bigger”. If you’d heard that in 1920 rather than 2020, you’d probably have been talking to a communist. They do tend to get rather cross when I make this comparison though! (Nice nuke gif btw)
  16. Interesting, thanks. Perhaps this time “losing control” is going to happen politically rather than economically. By which I mean events controlling policy rather than the other way around. I have a long standing view that free market liberalism is on the long term back foot, with events moving in the opposite direction despite the influence of Thatcherite libertarians in government. A really good example of this in my view is Brexit, whereby free market advocates are inadvertently ushering in physical trade barriers and tariffs. Ironically, they are being destroyed by the authoritarian ri
  17. One of the things that strikes me as a long term visitor to the forum, is how predictions of the government/ BofE losing control of the market have been so wrong for so long. They’ve been able to keep house prices high, inflation low and maintain general stability during the financial crisis of 2008, and a global pandemic. It makes you wonder if a nuclear holocaust would be positive for uk house price inflation, just extend HTB again and do a bit more QE. But there must come a point when the government “lose control”. It happened during the 1970s oil crisis, it happened during the E
  18. Me: * checks in on thread about financial crisis article in FT * sees loads of mental batshitery about eugenics and goblins and shit * leaves
  19. Hold on. There are a few things to remember here: 1. Johnson saying something to the Telegraph isn’t the same as that thing happening. 2. 95% mortgages were available until a few months ago, this just puts us back to where we were then, but this time with massive unemployment and job insecurity. 3. Young people and potential FTBers are going to be the most affected by this recession, they are going to be worrying about how to pay their rent next month, not how to buy a house at 95% LTV. Of course the government will do everything they can to keep house prices high, but thi
  20. None of my friends have lost their jobs, but everyone I know well has a skilled professional job, many in healthcare or science & technology, most are busier than ever. I know a few freelance designers who are short of work, and I know one project manager who is on furlough and expecting to be made redundant (perhaps has by now), and another who is coming to the end of a contract he was hoping would be renewed but it isn’t. But that’s my bubble. I know quite a few business owners who are making staff redundant, our child minder is really struggling because people are working from
  21. Yeah, you're right, probably depends on the business. Useless expensive people are hard to get rid of in normal times because they are expensive to make redundant and are often in roles that it's hard to say no longer exist, they are also more likely to challenge you rather than just take it on the chin because they have more to lose. Being made redundant now if you're 50+ may be the last job you ever have.
  22. I think at this early stage it's lower income people who are renting that are going to be taking the hit. But it won't take long before it moves up the income scale via secondary effects. Just look at BTL for example. If your tenant loses their job, that's their problem, right? Well, it is until they can't pay the rent and no one else has the money to rent your crappy apartment either.
  23. Yes, there are many many SMEs making redundancies that won't hit the headlines, probably representing more than the total of big company redundancies in aggregate. In both these cases they are generally keeping more experienced staff and shedding less experienced. I suspect for SMEs this pattern will be typical during this phase, so initially it will be landlords taking the hit as I imagine many of the 20-somethings losing their jobs will have no option but to move back in with parents. In this case the suppliers directly losing out are the venues and caterers etc., and indirectly t
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