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TheCountOfNowhere

Is It Time To Give Up ?

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I am watching with incredulity the listings coming onto rightmove now.

The asking prices in London and the S.E. are beyond insane. The asking prices in Northants even more so.

I am looking at a housing market that 18 months ago was 10-20% down on 2007 prices and was flat as a pancake and only being supported by 0.5% interest rates.

Is it possible TPTB can control a market that well ?

Who is really buying houses ?

Now they know how great QE is for themselves, the banks, taxation and house prices, will we just see more of the same when prices slide.

Is the whole thing so f**ked up that when the next collapse comes we are all stuffed ?

Should we all just give up, max up on debt and buy a slave box ?

I personally wont but just wondered how everyone is feeling about that the pre-election tories have managed to do ?

To be frank, I am beyond sick of this whole sorry business, stressed out too. It's crazy.

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I believe some sort of reset is unavoidable as exponential growth for ever is not possible. The problem is trying to guess the timing as it would not surprise me if it was to happen next week or in 10 years time.

The only certain thing is we are not on a sustainable path.

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I believe some sort of reset is unavoidable as exponential growth for ever is not possible. The problem is trying to guess the timing as it would not surprise me if it was to happen next week or in 10 years time.

The only certain thing is we are not on a sustainable path.

I agree but I thought they'd manage a bit of a last hooray with the FLS and HTB schemes but what we have seen is full blown sub-prime low interestt rate state back mortgage lending the likes of which has never been seen before.

it's all out support of the bankers over the general population.

It will not stop until it collapses or they are forced to stop it.

Either path lies massive problems.

I dont doubt for 1 minute buying now in London and the shires is just crazy now. But you do have to wonder what is going to come next.

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I agree but I thought they'd manage a bit of a last hooray with the FLS and HTB schemes but what we have seen is full blown sub-prime low interestt rate state back mortgage lending the likes of which has never been seen before.

it's all out support of the bankers over the general population.

It will not stop until it collapses or they are forced to stop it.

Either path lies massive problems.

I dont doubt for 1 minute buying now in London and the shires is just crazy now. But you do have to wonder what is going to come next.

Subprime state backed lending has been tried before, it was the essence of Fannie and Freddie! The bailout and unwinding of both may ultimately cost US taxpayers north of $1 trillion...

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I agree but I thought they'd manage a bit of a last hooray with the FLS and HTB schemes but what we have seen is full blown sub-prime low interestt rate state back mortgage lending the likes of which has never been seen before.

it's all out support of the bankers over the general population.

It will not stop until it collapses or they are forced to stop it.

Either path lies massive problems.

I dont doubt for 1 minute buying now in London and the shires is just crazy now. But you do have to wonder what is going to come next.

Are you not getting the warm wet feeling of trickle down?

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Subprime state backed lending has been tried before, it was the essence of Fannie and Freddie! The bailout and unwinding of both may ultimately cost US taxpayers north of $1 trillion...

Yes, I over looked that.

What I meant was this sort of direct money printing state owned bank direct lending with mortgage deposit gaurantee for the banekrs has never been done before in the Uk,

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Move to the frozen north, plenty of cheapo houses. Jobs? Not so much.

Not according to the DM, lol.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3031162/North-South-financial-divide-narrowing-Annual-incomes-South-East-900-year-2008-grown-800-North-East.html

Even if its household income and households are a lot smaller in London, I still have trouble believing the London stats....£38k was the average London indivdual Income, I thought. £26-30k for the South east, anywhere between £13-21k for the rest of the country.

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Personally, I "gave up" (gave up WANTING to buy) in 2013 when HTB was introduced. I felt like I didn't want to be heavily invested in a deeply dysfunctional economy. Since then I've had my finger hovering over a big green button that says "EMIGRATE" on it. Just knowing that's an option for me keeps me sane.

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I believe some sort of reset is unavoidable as exponential growth for ever is not possible. The problem is trying to guess the timing as it would not surprise me if it was to happen next week or in 10 years time.

The only certain thing is we are not on a sustainable path.

I see the current slow down as a bit of a mid cycle slow down and we could see another 5 years of price rises until some unforeseen event/s stops it in its tracks! God know at what percentage level HTB will be at by that stage! :P What is clear is that the government will throw everything they have at the market and when they can't prop it up any longer, it will take the rest of the economy down with it!

As for giving up, I already have given on owning a UK home and I am looking towards gaining financial independence through saving and investing. I no longer want to be owned by a house!

Renter Emma Bradford said: “When owning a house becomes an impossibility, at first it’s depressing but then your mind turns to things other than mortgages and floor plans.

“It’s like taking a massive dose of some powerful hallucinogen and seeing everything incredibly vividly.

“You realise universal truths like what materialistic shits your friends have become.”

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/people-who-dont-care-about-houses-a-threat-to-society-2015040797085

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Personally, I "gave up" (gave up WANTING to buy) in 2013 when HTB was introduced. I felt like I didn't want to be heavily invested in a deeply dysfunctional economy. Since then I've had my finger hovering over a big green button that says "EMIGRATE" on it. Just knowing that's an option for me keeps me sane.

Thats much the same here.

Got the option of a job in the US now but "out of the frying pan" springs to mind.

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Personally, I "gave up" (gave up WANTING to buy) in 2013 when HTB was introduced. I felt like I didn't want to be heavily invested in a deeply dysfunctional economy. Since then I've had my finger hovering over a big green button that says "EMIGRATE" on it. Just knowing that's an option for me keeps me sane.

Indeed. That's about the same time that I started to consider my other options.

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I see the current slow down as a bit of a mid cycle slow down and we could see another 5 years of price rises until some unforeseen event/s stops it in its tracks!

For real ?

For me we are at peak madness now.

How long they can support the bubble at this level before it collapses is what I wonder.

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I am watching with incredulity the listings coming onto rightmove now.

The asking prices in London and the S.E. are beyond insane. The asking prices in Northants even more so.

I am looking at a housing market that 18 months ago was 10-20% down on 2007 prices and was flat as a pancake and only being supported by 0.5% interest rates.

Is it possible TPTB can control a market that well ?

Who is really buying houses ?

Now they know how great QE is for themselves, the banks, taxation and house prices, will we just see more of the same when prices slide.

Is the whole thing so f**ked up that when the next collapse comes we are all stuffed ?

Should we all just give up, max up on debt and buy a slave box ?

I personally wont but just wondered how everyone is feeling about that the pre-election tories have managed to do ?

To be frank, I am beyond sick of this whole sorry business, stressed out too. It's crazy.

Serious question - Why didn't you buy one between 2009-2012? (assuming you want(ed) to buy one)

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Yes, we've given up.

We've left the UK and moved to France.

There were many reasons for our move, the stupid price of homes was actually only number 3 or 4 in the list :)

It's early days, but so far we're in a major city, renting a place 50% bigger than what we had just outside the M25, for 30% less rent. I'm fortunate to have a skillset that's in demand.

At some point I'll write a longer post about our adventures.

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The final greater fools in any bubble are the Bears who hold out right until the end and then capitulate........

Once they have bought there are no further buyers.

It won't be different this time.

I have a sneaking feeling that whatever government gets in will let the market go just after this election so that they can claim credit for the recovery that will be taking hold just before the next.

What do you think the Tories £12bn of unspecified welfare cuts are - if that doesn't include further cuts in housing benefit I'd be amazed.

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Serious question - Why didn't you buy one between 2009-2012? (assuming you want(ed) to buy one)

we tried till about end of 2011 ish

we offered sensible money on houses in line with the land registry and got no takers.

There wasn't much supply and few decent houses.

Not much moved for years and some of the stuff we offered on sat forever, till the FLS/HTB madness, they they have all sold for full asking.

We've had agents tell us they cant believe some idiot ( from London ) has paid the asking price and we've been told the buyer is waiting on a chain and the buyer is trying to get a mortgage despite not being able to afford the house. Agents have tried to play us like idiots and at least 3 decent family homes we tried to view we were blocked by agents. The fraud was there for anyone to see. Then the FLS/HTB kicked in and you could see the madness coming. You can still see it. It's quite frightening how stupid and easily led people are.

Sure, we could have paid 2007+ asking prices but we want to move away at some point and the cost of buying/selling versus renting is much the same. The chance of being stuck with a house we couldn't sell is high though. The chance of loosing a lot of money was there and is even higher now. There was no reason to partake in the madness then and there is less of a reason to partake now.

sitting here now though, It's like the crash never happened. :blink:

BUT IT DID.

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I have a sneaking feeling that whatever government gets in will let the market go just after this election so that they can claim credit for the recovery that will be taking hold just before the next.

It will of course be harder for a Tory led government to do this BUT I am still sympathetic to this view.

What they do next will be the important and interesting thing.

Now they know how great QE is for themselves, the banks, taxation and house prices, will we just see more of the same when prices slide.

You missed "monetising budget deficits and reckless spending" off your list or it might be included in "taxation".

Clearly letting the housing market go will risk inducing a "nasty" debt-deleverging deflation spiral and budget reduction targets will be missed for another parliamentary term. QE, Zirp and pound destruction will be the cure again. How do I know that? Because that is the policy tool and cure being used by every major central bank the world over. I reckon it is politically palatable for the masses as long as it doesn't not come with a banking bailout like last time.

Edited by bankstersparadise

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We will certainly get a lot more "signal" after the election; currently we are just getting "noise" from the political elites.

I find the idea that the price of property is now all-consuming in the UK whether you own or not - absolutely absurd. I actually look forward to eventually emigrating and never caring again about property. It's become a bizarre and needless pre-occupation just because of the arbitrary price levels.

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saw an article online the other day about an App - for people who wanted to buy a house (in London mainly) but couldn't afford it alone , to get together with a stranger and buy a place together. Took me back to 2006-7 , when the same schemes were being proposed.

Seeing the article made me think that the top was about to explode again. Canary in the mineshaft , again....6-12mnths maybe ?

I'd love to see it...but as others say...TPTB might have other tricks up their sleeves to keep the mega-bubble inflated a bit longer.

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What's the alternative?

All English-speaking countries have housing markets that are the same or worse.

I refuse to take on a mortgage I'll never pay off. I won't be making a bet on 70s-style inflation when wages have been stagnating since the turn of the century.

As for why I haven't bought in already, there has never been a time in my working life where prices have been sensible. My employer went bust around the time of the crash and I now work in the London bubbleopolis. Maybe if I had tried for an 100% mortgage straight out of University (when I also had 16k student debt to service...). Didn't seem prudent at the time.

I'm old enough to remember how much houses cost in the 90s, and after ten years of rubbish rentals and sharing I don't see why I should settle for a 'starter home' as my first (and probably only) buy.

So since I'm not going to be buying a 250k bedsit, and my job is here, I don't have any other option but to continue to rent. Shared Ownership is not an option - it's a joke.

I was putting my efforts into arguing for political change - but the No vote means I can't escape to Scotland, and despite the next election probably producing a hung parliament the majority of people are still voting for the same Red and Blue idiots who have led us into this mess. I didn't vote Tory but I really thought they would sort this out. But Osborne has been just as bad as Gordon Brown.

There's no 'giving up' because there is no alternative.

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The final greater fools in any bubble are the Bears who hold out right until the end and then capitulate........

Once they have bought there are no further buyers.

It won't be different this time.

I have a sneaking feeling that whatever government gets in will let the market go just after this election so that they can claim credit for the recovery that will be taking hold just before the next.

What do you think the Tories £12bn of unspecified welfare cuts are - if that doesn't include further cuts in housing benefit I'd be amazed.

I thought that at the last election. Instead they propped up the market until they found a crazy scheme that managed to re inflate the bubble.

in fact all the government policies to do with banking/housing/immigration over the last 30 years has fuelled the bubble.

Why would they do anything differently ?

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Yes, we've given up.

We've left the UK and moved to France.

There were many reasons for our move, the stupid price of homes was actually only number 3 or 4 in the list :)

It's early days, but so far we're in a major city, renting a place 50% bigger than what we had just outside the M25, for 30% less rent. I'm fortunate to have a skillset that's in demand.

At some point I'll write a longer post about our adventures.

Good luck , hope it all works out for you and the family. I moved to France about 25yrs ago and there's not one day I wake up regretting the move. Not one.

The UK media can trash French politics (easy) , unions (even easier) but when you can buy a 4/5 bed house with a pool in the south of France for £250K and are within 45 mins of a major city or international airport, then the slave box for £400K and a 30yr mortgage in the London suburbs is really the ultimate p*ss-take.

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saw an article online the other day about an App - for people who wanted to buy a house (in London mainly) but couldn't afford it alone , to get together with a stranger and buy a place together. Took me back to 2006-7 , when the same schemes were being proposed.

Seeing the article made me think that the top was about to explode again. Canary in the mineshaft , again....6-12mnths maybe ?

I'd love to see it...but as others say...TPTB might have other tricks up their sleeves to keep the mega-bubble inflated a bit longer.

When you see that sort of thing, you know something has gone drastically wrong.

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What's the alternative?

All English-speaking countries have housing markets that are the same or worse.

I refuse to take on a mortgage I'll never pay off. I won't be making a bet on 70s-style inflation when wages have been stagnating since the turn of the century.

As for why I haven't bought in already, there has never been a time in my working life where prices have been sensible. My employer went bust around the time of the crash and I now work in the London bubbleopolis. Maybe if I had tried for an 100% mortgage straight out of University (when I also had 16k student debt to service...). Didn't seem prudent at the time.

I'm old enough to remember how much houses cost in the 90s, and after ten years of rubbish rentals and sharing I don't see why I should settle for a 'starter home' as my first (and probably only) buy.

So since I'm not going to be buying a 250k bedsit, and my job is here, I don't have any other option but to continue to rent. Shared Ownership is not an option - it's a joke.

I was putting my efforts into arguing for political change - but the No vote means I can't escape to Scotland, and despite the next election probably producing a hung parliament the majority of people are still voting for the same Red and Blue idiots who have led us into this mess. I didn't vote Tory but I really thought they would sort this out. But Osborne has been just as bad as Gordon Brown.

There's no 'giving up' because there is no alternative.

You mention moving to Scotland. It's still possible to live decently there. Prices can be negotiated down also, as the HPI has effectively stalled for most of the country. Even Aberdeen, recently....

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-28023402.html

The above house is fairly typical. Even better value can be found on the coasts if you look. West coast has the same for 20-30% less , within 30-40mins to Glasgow city or the airport.

I don't know your circumstances, but many of the London/SE dwellers can't project themselves living anywhere outside the bubble and work-related to the City. Sure, elsewhere salaries may be less, but if you have skills that are in demand you might be able to work as a contractor or for a consultancy - that way you can base yourself anywhere and have your employer pay your weekly travel/hotel costs to work onsite. Just a suggestion - again it isn't suitable for all.

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