51 Yes 49 No - Rumoured Yougov Poll Tomorrow

[stormymonday_2011]

Well it seems Project Fear is now going into overdrive

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67017a0a-390d-11e4-9526-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2754222/Now-phone-companies-warn-bills-rise-millions-Scots-country-votes-leave-UK.html

Can't be long before a mass outbreak of Ebola north of the border is predicted if the Scots vote Yes

It is a shame to see a journalist such as Martin Wolf in the FT writing such drivel but it seems the Establishment is now pulling out all the stops to try and petrify the Scots to stay in the Union. No doubt the telephone lines between Whitehall, the security services and their placemen in the media and corporations in the UK are glowing red hot. Favours are doubtless being called in everywhere.

The message I am taking away from this Referendum is that the British ruling elite actually hates real democracy where people truly engage en masse in politics and the voice of ordinary man or woman is heard. They prefer its Potempkin equivalent where a facade of participation is laid over a system that is quasi dictatorship where two sets of puppet politicians pretend to be arguing over points of principle but where nothing ever really changes in the way power is distributed or wielded.

What is disappointing is the obviously petulant way the UK political and financial class appear likely to respond if events go against them. To describe them as potentially sore losers would be an understatement. The last time something like this occurred was during the Irish campaign for Home Rule after the First World War. The way that was mishandled by the British establishment led to nearly a century of division, chaos, violence and political instability which has still not been fully resolved. If they f*ck up the relationship with Scotland as well then people in the UK won't need to worry about Putin or Islamic extremism because before too long we could have our own home grown conflict to keep us all occupied. I think there is a serious risk of this issue unravelling badly regardless of the Referendum result because so little effort has gone into selling a positive view of the UK. In particular if the vote in the Referendum is a No but Scotland's economy bombs anyway just the the doomsters predicted it would after a Yes vote then expect big trouble ahead. This could have been avoided if the UKs constitution had been properly reformed. Unfortunately, politicians preferred short term political advantage over the long term future of their country.

Edited September 13, 2014 by stormymonday_2011

[South Lorne]

Well it seems Project Fear is now going into overdrive

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67017a0a-390d-11e4-9526-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2754222/Now-phone-companies-warn-bills-rise-millions-Scots-country-votes-leave-UK.html

Can't be long before a mass outbreak of Ebola north of the border is predicted if the Scots vote Yes

It is a shame to see a journalist such as Martin Wolf in the FT writing such drivel but it seems the Establishment is now pulling out all the stops to try and petrify the Scots to stay in the Union. No doubt the telephone lines between Whitehall, the security services and their placemen in the media and corporations in the UK are glowing red hot. Favours are doubtless being called in everywhere.

The message I am taking away from this Referendum is that the British ruling elite actually hates real democracy where people truly engage en masse in politics and the voice of ordinary man or woman is heard. They prefer its Potempkin equivalent where a facade of participation is laid over a system that is quasi dictatorship where two sets of puppet politicians pretend to be arguing over points of principle but where nothing ever really changes in the way power is distributed or wielded.

What is disappointing is the obviously petulant way the UK political and financial class appear likely to respond if events go against them. To describe them as potentially sore losers would be an understatement. The last time something like this occurred was during the Irish campaign for Home Rule after the First World War. The way that was mishandled by the British establishment led to nearly a century of division, chaos, violence and political instability which has still not been fully resolved. If they f*ck up the relationship with Scotland as well then people in the UK won't need to worry about Putin or Islamic extremism because before too long we could have our own home grown conflict to keep us all occupied. I think there is a serious risk of this issue unravelling badly regardless of the Referendum result because so little effort has gone into selling a positive view of the UK. In particular if the vote in the Referendum is a No but Scotland's economy bombs anyway just the the doomsters predicted it would after a Yes vote then expect big trouble ahead. This could have been avoided if the UKs constitution had been properly reformed. Unfortunately, politicians preferred short term political advantage over the long term future of their country.

..the main issue is democracy will be re-established south of the border ..and it's up to the Salmond to roll out his goodies and make them sustainable ...he claims he will ...why worry....

[Killer Bunny]

name="Economic Exile" post="1102583379" timestamp="1410556834"]

My view is that the sky isn't going to fall in if it's a yes vote in scotland. Life will go on for better or for worse whatever the outcome.

On the other hand the Yes campaign are a wide mix from society and very chatty.....solicitor, teachers, self employed, retired, students and disabled people. Never heard the SNP or fanatic patriotic stuff mentioned by any of them. The concerns are bad management from westminster and a passion to take scotland's possible future into it's own hands for better or for worse.

https://jonathandaviswm.wordpress.com/2014/08/27/scottish-independence-vote/

Edited September 13, 2014 by Killer Bunny

[billybong]

With all the price hikes by John Lewis, B & Q, Asda, BT etc after independence there's going to be some really significant opportunities in Scotland for small and new businesses including companies like the German supermarkets to make huge inroads.

With all that new competition (along with the old retail cartel declining) the Scottish economy could really thrive and boom.

Edited September 13, 2014 by billybong

[billybong]

From the jonathandavis link:

So why is the Establishment telling the people to stay in the Union? Simple.

It needs as many as possible to bail out its #banksters and pay taxes to the Government and make the rich richer. Obviously.

Indeed - a big chunk of the ponzi would be be demolished.

[ccc]

With all the price hikes by John Lewis, B & Q, Asda, BT etc after independence there's going to be some really significant opportunities in Scotland for small and new businesses including companies like the German supermarkets to make huge inroads.

With all that new competition (along with the old retail cartel declining) the Scottish economy could really thrive and boom.

There are about 3 of those German supermarkets within about a mile of me .........

[Trampa501]

Could be a great opportunity for new operators and local small businesses in the country if those companies do carry out their threat of higher prices.

I cannot really see where the supposed extra costs would come from. Surely buying the stuff and getting to supermarket would be exactly the same? The only real change could be currency fluctuation. But if imported stuff cost more due to a weak Gfoat, that would be more than compensated by lower wages and rents.

[winkie]

With all the price hikes by John Lewis, B & Q, Asda, BT etc after independence there's going to be some really significant opportunities in Scotland for small and new businesses including companies like the German supermarkets to make huge inroads.

With all that new competition (along with the old retail cartel declining) the Scottish economy could really thrive and boom.

I would prefer Scotland to stay in the union, but I believe the Scottish people should decide their own future.......all these threats about leaving would make people more determined to go their own way imo, any gaps created there will always be something to step in its place...change should not be feared it should be embraced.

[MrPin]

It won't make a lot of difference, which ever way the vote goes! If it's a YES, then it will take some time to implement. If NO, then at least Westminster will see the region still wants more autonomy!

[winkie]

It won't make a lot of difference, which ever way the vote goes! If it's a YES, then it will take some time to implement. If NO, then at least Westminster will see the region still wants more autonomy!

If people are determined, if it doesn't happen this time it will happen next time....only a matter of time.

[Guest]

If it's a No, then, like with AV, Westminster will breathe a sigh of relief and go back to business as usual. They'll do everything they can to ensure there isn't a next time.

Usually they don't make the mistake of allowing people a vote at all - remember the Lisbon treaty?

Reform will only happen if they're forced - the 'more devolution' proposals all make sure that real power is retained at Westminster.

[AThirdWay]

You are focusing on just the last year.

Working on the figure of Scotland's share of the pot since these Company's were formed then the numbers are going to be significant. Good years iron out the bad and so on.. Brilliant! How long do you think it will take to repay that £1.4tr? The returns, compared to the level of exposure, are peanuts. We'll be happy to take the tax on profits made in Scotland, if they register in the rUK. Are you?

Now are you telling me you will vote yes because the aspiration to independence excites you and you will accept the consequences post event as good or bad or is it because you believe Salmond will transform it all into a land of milk and honey with bounty for everyone?

The first I can understand, the second I cannot which is why I have been trying to point out the inconsistencies in the SNP's argument and figures. That's because you cannot get your head round the very simple concept that this is not a vote for Salmond. It's YES or NO, not Salmond or Lamont or Davidson or that libdem puppet.

[AThirdWay]

They are generally quite knowledgeable about economics, so if they say the economy is going to crash that's something of relevance to most people.

[AThirdWay]

That has been some of my thinking up to now, although Farage is now up here saying it is not a vote for independence but a vote to join the euro, where you can never be independent, and I tend to agree with him, swinging me back to the NO camp, even although their whole campaign is negative nonsense. Why don`t No go with the "Fear the Euro" mantra?

Because participation in ERMII for 24 months is a prerequisite to joining the Euro? Because participation in ERMII is voluntary, and is used as a tool to control when nation states join the Euro, if ever?

[campervanman]

Farage may well have done the yes campaign a favour by sticking his nose in as one of the factors will be Scots voting yes because a no vote would be more likely to see them out of the EU.

[crashmonitor]

Didn't pick up the Yougov poll yesterday 52/48 to the unionists...significant because Yougov had been the outrider poll which has usually bigged up the independence vote.

Still could be on a knife edge. If the turnout is big then the (usually non voting) precariat vote will almost certainly go for Independence.

The only thing favouring the Union is fear may be keeping the Unionist mute. This may mean that Unionists are not cooperating with the likes of Yougov...once you take the oath of silence no doubt that means you keep shtumm even when Yougov phones.

It has been pointed out that in 1992 Tories were shy of coming out because of intimidation. The polls were completely wrong in the prediction of a victory for Labour.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/uk-scotland-independence-idUKKBN0H60M620140912

Edited September 13, 2014 by crashmonitor

[dances with sheeple]

Didn't pick up the Yougov poll yesterday 52/48 to the unionists...significant because Yougov had been the outrider poll which has usually bigged up the independence vote.

Still could be on a knife edge. If the turnout is big then the (usually non voting) precariat vote will almost certainly go for Independence.

The only thing favouring the Union is fear may be keeping the Unionist mute. This may mean that Unionists are not cooperating with the likes of Yougov...once you take the oath of silence no doubt that means you keep shtumm even when Yougov phones.

It has been pointed out that in 1992 Tories were shy of coming out because of intimidation. The polls were completely wrong in the prediction of a victory for Labour.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/uk-scotland-independence-idUKKBN0H60M620140912

According to guy on Scottish news last night (guy from the Green party?) the poll is conducted on landline numbers. That obviously rules out a lot of the mobiles only generation who will be voting?

[R K]

Peston confirms the Treasury briefed BBC about the RBS decision to relocate before theyd held their board meeting to discuss it.

BBC clearly colluding with the Tory govt to get the outcome they want in Scotland. Nick Robinson couldn't have confirmed the Treasury story with RBS since they hadn't held the board meeting at that time nor informed their shareholders.

On the News at 10 on Wednesday September 10, my colleague Nick Robinson disclosed that Lloyds and RBS would be moving their registered offices from Scotland to London - so that they would continue to be protected and regulated by the Bank of England in the event of Scots voting for independence.

The Sun newspaper also had the story - which was perceived as embarrassing for Mr Salmond and the campaign for independence.

At 10.16pm that evening I and other journalists were emailed by the Treasury to be told that Lloyds had "issued a statement" on moving its domicile to London and that RBS had been "in touch with the Treasury" and had told the Treasury of "similar plans to base themselves in London".

I learned today that RBS's board was still meeting at this time, to decide whether to tell its shareholders the following morning at 7am that it too would move its domicile in the event of Scotland separating from the UK.

RBS's board meeting was convened for 9.45pm, it started at 10pm and finished around 11pm.

In other words, the Treasury was briefing about its plans to relocate before the board had formally decided to release this information.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29185319

Edited September 13, 2014 by R K

[crashmonitor]

According to guy on Scottish news last night (guy from the Green party?) the poll is conducted on landline numbers. That obviously rules out a lot of the mobiles only generation who will be voting?

Good point, I think that are a lot of things like that which may be skewing these opinion polls the wrong way.

I think there is also an assumption that certain voters won't turn out and no doubt the polling firms are making adjustments, mostly probably off the independence voting intentions.

If the turnout was at 90% (less than Quebec).....I think the Independence vote would most probably win.

Edited September 13, 2014 by crashmonitor

[ccc]

Amazing how many 'yes' people say time and time again that this isn't a vote for Salmond......yet bring up David Cameron and 'The Tories' at every available opportunity...

Just saying.

[dances with sheeple]

Good point, I think that are a lot of things like that which may be skewing these opinion polls the wrong way.

I think there is also an assumption that certain voters won't turn out and no doubt the polling firms are making adjustments, mostly probably off the independence voting intentions.

If the turnout was at 90% (less than Quebec).....I think the Independence vote would most probably win.

According to Salmond he saw people in Dundee, some in their 40`s, who had never voted before, lining up to register for this vote. I think this one is different in that there is a chance of real change, it will come down to how many bother to turn out, and how many are satisfied with their lot under the status quo. I think there are a lot of unsatisfied people out there, but voting for a party is not going to help them much so they don`t vote, this one is being perceived differently I think. Kids of school age are obviously influenced by what their teachers and parents are putting into their heads, but there may be a raw "Braveheart" effect among the young that swings things?

[@contradevian]

Deutsche Bank's analysis. Not good. But would probably persuade me to vote YES

http://research.comms.db.com/docs/fxblog_scot12sep14.pdf

[dances with sheeple]

Deutsche Bank's analysis. Not good. But would probably persuade me to vote YES

http://research.comms.db.com/docs/fxblog_scot12sep14.pdf

"Residents in Scotland would move their assets to England-based institutions for fear of a forced conversion to a new weaker currency."

Something not quite right with that statement somehow?

[stormymonday_2011]

If it's a No, then, like with AV, Westminster will breathe a sigh of relief and go back to business as usual. They'll do everything they can to ensure there isn't a next time.

Usually they don't make the mistake of allowing people a vote at all - remember the Lisbon treaty?

Reform will only happen if they're forced - the 'more devolution' proposals all make sure that real power is retained at Westminster.

Unfortunately, you maybe right. The experience of Ireland is that Westminster only cedes power at gunpoint. That is what really worries me. The Union probably could be preserved if there was sufficient vision, wisdom and flexibility on both sides to reform it. Sadly, the evidence suggests the opposite. The worse outcome will be a narrow No vote, Westminster neutering any promised further devolution and the Scottish economy nose diving badly anyway post referendum. If that happens I think there will a lot of unpleasantness down the road. Though I don't want to see the break up of the UK I think a Yes vote would be better than that outcome.

Edited September 13, 2014 by stormymonday_2011

[R K]

Deutsche Bank's analysis. Not good. But would probably persuade me to vote YES

http://research.comms.db.com/docs/fxblog_scot12sep14.pdf

Indeed. Deutsche thought synthesised securitised cr4p was a good idea.