51 Yes 49 No - Rumoured Yougov Poll Tomorrow

[stormymonday_2011]

You are focusing on just the last year.

Working on the figure of Scotland's share of the pot since these Company's were formed then the numbers are going to be significant. Good years iron out the bad and so on..

Now are you telling me you will vote yes because the aspiration to independence excites you and you will accept the consequences post event as good or bad or is it because you believe Salmond will transform it all into a land of milk and honey with bounty for everyone?

The first I can understand, the second I cannot which is why I have been trying to point out the inconsistencies in the SNP's argument and figures.

I wont be voting at all because I am English.

I just think the importance of finance and banking to Scotland is way over stated.

It is a smaller proportion of the Scottish economy than in England. Moreover, the potential upside of banking tax revenues for Scots are far outweighed by the risks of having RBS and Lloyds headquartered in Edinburgh.

As for banking having good years and bad years that is certainly true but the same holds for oil and the UK governments estimates for its potential tax yield is probably on the pessimistic side for the future

Anyway the point of Scottish independence is not to be richer than England but to be free of rule from Westminster something which many people south of the border with their subservient mentality to their political and financial rulers do not seem to grasp at all.

Edited September 12, 2014 by stormymonday_2011

[Billy soy]

Have any of the papers attempted to figure out what rUK's GDP will be with Scotland out of the equation?

[Scunnered]

They [banks] are generally quite knowledgeable about economics, so if they say the economy is going to crash that's something of relevance to most people.

Ah, of course. I'd forgotten how the banks have always been spot-on with their prognostications about the economy.

[South Lorne]

I wont be voting at all because I am English.

..that is not the reason ...if you were English living in Scotland you would have a vote ..I am Scots living in England ..I don't have a vote...

..small but important point....

[Goat]

Ah, of course. I'd forgotten how the banks have always been spot-on with their prognostications about the economy.

If you're just going to say "all economists are wrong" and by extension anything they say should be ignored then fair enough, you're entitled to your opinion.

Personally, when I see a team of economists from Credit Suisse warning:

In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.

Then I'm inclined to take them seriously.

[thecrashingisles]

If you're just going to say "all economists are wrong" and by extension anything they say should be ignored then fair enough, you're entitled to your opinion.

Personally, when I see a team of economists from Credit Suisse warning:

In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.

Then I'm inclined to take them seriously.

Ok so let's take that line of argument seriously. If the Scottish economy will at some point require a devaluation in order to regain competitiveness, it will be much easier to achieve as an independent country with its own currency. Surely that's preferable to becoming ever more dependent on fiscal transfers from London?

[The Knimbies who say No]

Ok so let's take that line of argument seriously. If the Scottish economy will at some point require a devaluation in order to regain competitiveness, it will be much easier to achieve as an independent country with its own currency. Surely that's preferable to becoming ever more dependent on fiscal transfers from London?

Some people begrudge every penny, yet wouldn't have it any other way.

[South Lorne]

Ok so let's take that line of argument seriously. If the Scottish economy will at some point require a devaluation in order to regain competitiveness, it will be much easier to achieve as an independent country with its own currency. Surely that's preferable to becoming ever more dependent on fiscal transfers from London?

...you can't have a devaluation without your own currency ....and therefore it is essential ...likewise it should have a Central Bank to raise and lower interest rates and a Stock Exchange(s) should be reintroduced to help drive the local economy....

[dances with sheeple]

I see Ian Paisley, the Godfather of 'Better Together' has died.

'No surrender' would have been quite catchy.

Is this an omen, change is on the way?

[Goat]

Ok so let's take that line of argument seriously. If the Scottish economy will at some point require a devaluation in order to regain competitiveness, it will be much easier to achieve as an independent country with its own currency. Surely that's preferable to becoming ever more dependent on fiscal transfers from London?

Remember that's on top of the severe recession.

I suppose there's a argument that devaluation might be more effective if done quickly in an independent country, it does however further undermine the SNPs claims about life after independence.

[onlyme2]

Then I'm inclined to take them seriously.

we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.

Why, economists didn't predict or even notice the financial terrorism inflicted on the UK the last decade, and as for devaluation being the fix all - complete rot, it is how you spend and invest your countries income (i.e. not waste it) not its day to day rate against other currencies that matters in al but the shortest of timeframes. Loko at the history of sterling's fall in relative terms as a currency and the matching fall in many sectors / relative standard of living against counterparts.

If governed well and without a parasitic banking system Scotland could easily do better than they would otherwise.

[South Lorne]

Remember that's on top of the severe recession.

I suppose there's a argument that devaluation might be more effective if done quickly in an independent country, it does however further undermine the SNPs claims about life after independence.

..it would have to be part of a plan linked to IRs and taxation....a hook for investment ....

[dances with sheeple]

Why, economists didn't predict or even notice the financial terrorism inflicted on the UK the last decade, and as for devaluation being the fix all - complete rot, it is how you spend and invest your countries income (i.e. not waste it) not its day to day rate against other currencies that matters in al but the shortest of timeframes. Loko at the history of sterling's fall in relative terms as a currency and the matching fall in many sectors / relative standard of living against counterparts.

If governed well and without a parasitic banking system Scotland could easily do better than they would otherwise.

That has been some of my thinking up to now, although Farage is now up here saying it is not a vote for independence but a vote to join the euro, where you can never be independent, and I tend to agree with him, swinging me back to the NO camp, even although their whole campaign is negative nonsense. Why don`t No go with the "Fear the Euro" mantra?

[@contradevian]

Get a bit confusing as Scotland joins the EU, just as rUK pulls out.

[South Lorne]

That has been some of my thinking up to now, although Farage is now up here saying it is not a vote for independence but a vote to join the euro, where you can never be independent, and I tend to agree with him, swinging me back to the NO camp, even although their whole campaign is negative nonsense. Why don`t No go with the "Fear the Euro" mantra?

...there is no guarantee Scotland will get early entry ..especially with the Catalonians playing up in Spain spurred by events in Scotland ..and by the time they get the go ahead.. Europe will be kaput...if it is not already.......

[Goat]

..it would have to be part of a plan linked to IRs and taxation....a hook for investment ....

So simple, why didn't I think of that?

Here's why:

Interest rates: post independence these are certain to spike, can't see how that's going to encourage investment.

Taxation: hard to square that circle with the promises made on spending and the likely hole in the public finances.

Also foreign investment is going to be hard to come by for various reasons including political instability and the simple fact that Scotland will not be in the EU. Quite simply if I'm Japco looking to invest somewhere near the Ruk then Ireland looks a much better option.

[Guest]

That has been some of my thinking up to now, although Farage is now up here saying it is not a vote for independence but a vote to join the euro, where you can never be independent, and I tend to agree with him, swinging me back to the NO camp, even although their whole campaign is negative nonsense. Why don`t No go with the "Fear the Euro" mantra?

No-one in Yes is proposing that Scotland join the Euro. Could the EU really force Scotland to join against its will, given all the negatives of a Scottish exit, and given all the existing counter-examples (e.g. Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the UK itself). If it comes to it Scotland could decline EU membership - free trade with Scotland benefits other European countries, many to a greater degree than it benefits Scotland herself.

Honestly I think the most important thing is to abandon the zombie economic policies of the current UK, because if things continue unchanged both Scotland and the rUK will be sunk.

[Goat]

If governed well and without a parasitic banking system Scotland could easily do better than they would otherwise.

40/59 MP's are Labour, good luck with the good governance part.

Unless you're proposing a return to barter they're going to need some kind of banking system so I'll assume that part to be pure hyperbole.

[Goat]

No-one in Yes is proposing that Scotland join the Euro.

Er, SNP policy is to join the EU, it is a prerequisite of joining to commit to joining the Euro as well.

Could the EU really force Scotland to join against its will

They can certainly make it very hard for them not to, assuming that they actually get into the EU in the first place.

[Guest]

Er, SNP policy is to join the EU, it is a prerequisite of joining to commit to joining the Euro as well.

They can certainly make it very hard for them not to, assuming that they actually get into the EU in the first place.

There are currently 8 EU members who have 'committed' to join the Euro but who have as yet not actually joined. Incuding Sweden, who has successfully avoided Euro membership for nearly twenty years - including explicitly voting against entry in a referendum.

I mantain that hand-wringing over Europe is a distraction. If the vote is No then Scotland must accept whatever relationship with Europe is handed down from Westminster, and must additionally continue to cope with an economic policy which has concentrated investment in the south-east, blown the largest house price bubble in history (nearly twenty years and counting), and which is actively pursuing inflationary policies such as money-printing while not having the export capacity to take advantage of the resulting weakness in its currency.

Better the devil you know? We've come to know this one quite well over the years...

[South Lorne]

So simple, why didn't I think of that?

Here's why:

Interest rates: post independence these are certain to spike, can't see how that's going to encourage investment.

Taxation: hard to square that circle with the promises made on spending and the likely hole in the public finances.

Also foreign investment is going to be hard to come by for various reasons including political instability and the simple fact that Scotland will not be in the EU. Quite simply if I'm Japco looking to invest somewhere near the Ruk then Ireland looks a much better option.

...we don't have the same base rate as other currencies irrespective of world rates despite 'spikes' and 'doldrums' ...and a country's currency is usually adjusted up or down on the basis of the base rate movement although other economic factors come into play at various times....whether it will succeed or fail... various restructuring of taxes would certainly be a tool for any new country ....and as an independent new country or an old established one a balanced link between all three would have to be planned ...it's not simple for it to be successful ...because if it were that easy ...everyone would be doing it....

Edited September 12, 2014 by South Lorne

[Goat]

There are currently 8 EU members who have 'committed' to join the Euro but who have as yet not actually joined. Incuding Sweden, who has successfully avoided Euro membership for nearly twenty years - including explicitly voting against entry in a referendum.

Of the 7 others only Poland doesn't have a planned adoption date and that will likely change soon. Sweden is very much the exception and I doubt Scotland would be able to follow that example.

[South Lorne]

Also foreign investment is going to be hard to come by for various reasons including political instability and the simple fact that Scotland will not be in the EU. Quite simply if I'm Japco looking to invest somewhere near the Ruk then Ireland looks a much better option.

...well Ireland has more attractive corporate tax rates than everyone else which helps your theory ...but Scotland's small problem if they were to match these rates are Unions ...this was reflected recently at the oil terminal at Grangemouth and back over the years Ford in 1988 pulled out of a planned engine assembly plant in Dundee because of the Union demands even before they had started ...Salmond needs to look at these issues and solve to be successful.....

[dances with sheeple]

...there is no guarantee Scotland will get early entry ..especially with the Catalonians playing up in Spain spurred by events in Scotland ..and by the time they get the go ahead.. Europe will be kaput...if it is not already.......

The EZ blowing up would be good because an independent Scotland would have to share the pound or have it`s own currency and central bank, meaning it`s currency would just be backed by whatever Scotland can offer the world, not as part of the EZ project? Joining the euro is my biggest fear if voting Yes.

[dances with sheeple]

No-one in Yes is proposing that Scotland join the Euro. Could the EU really force Scotland to join against its will, given all the negatives of a Scottish exit, and given all the existing counter-examples (e.g. Sweden, Denmark, Poland, the UK itself). If it comes to it Scotland could decline EU membership - free trade with Scotland benefits other European countries, many to a greater degree than it benefits Scotland herself.

Honestly I think the most important thing is to abandon the zombie economic policies of the current UK, because if things continue unchanged both Scotland and the rUK will be sunk.

That is the UKIP argument for the whole of the UK as well.