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AThirdWay

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About AThirdWay

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  1. What is this, "it will be worse for Ireland"? So what? The Eire GDP growth is stellar compared to the UK's, they are in a FAR better position to weather Brexit even before you factor in possible EU grants! The ECB is, at least, as capable of weathering Brexit as the BoE and far better placed. To think otherwise is delusional. Tin foil hat time! This is down to the predicted ineptitude of UK.GOV, and the predicted determination of the EU to abide by it's founding principles. This, I'm afraid, is complete nonsense. How can you claim that "we can (and do) tax prosperous regions freely to popup weaker ones - the Eurozone cannot" in the SAME THREAD that has a link to the different amount of monies paid in by each member of the EU? In addition each NCB provides reserves to the ECB, it therefore has a far higher capacity of currency support than the BoE, especially if we have just walked away from our international commitments. What do you think returns on gilts/bonds would need to be if we walk away from the EU without making the payments we had agreed?
  2. Not sure why you think we won't have to pay the £39bn? It's certainly not the opinion of Sir Amyas Morse, head of the NAO, although I appreciate the HoLs thinks otherwise. If we didn't, please remember that UK has to agree WTO schedules before we can trade. They have to be agreed by all states, and I would imagine that EU states will demand their pound of flesh (or £39bn worth of flesh) before agreeing to any deal. Remember, in many areas we have no WTO agreement as we were bundled into the EU's agreement. We are also bound to treat every member equally, so we are limited in how we can 'punish' the EU. In the words of the WTO boss, leaving on WTO rules would be a “complete betrayal” of voters. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/13/a-no-deal-wto-option-would-result-in-serious-economic-damage-for-key-uk-industries/ Your £39bn would seem like a bargain compared to the no-deal disaster. Every examination I've read regarding a no deal Brexit has businesses going to the wall, so I.m not entirely sure what you mean by "the productive capacity of the economy will not change". Do you mean the theoretical production capacity? If so, so what? Without a market, that capacity is useless. And why would you think wealth distribution would equalise? You'll need to expand on that I'm afraid. I'm sorry, but you're going to have to come up with something more.... grounded... than this.
  3. I'll give it a shot, corectifications are: Point 1. As a percentage of total exports, the UK is the massive loser. It will be a far worse recession for us. Point 2. Not impossible to exit, but I agree with the rest of your point. Not sure why you're surprised though, you were told in 2016 that the UK gov. weren't up to the task! Point 3. Looking at the latest figures, we appear to be a within a percentage point of the EU debt level as a percentage of GDP, massively disadvantaged when you factor in personal debt. So you are wrong when looking at total national debt. Point 4. It looks like there are currently 10 net contributors to the EU budget, so I would say you're wrong again. https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-biggest-contributors-eu-budget/?gclid=Cj0KCQiArqPgBRCRARIsAPwlHoVcDPq1Ci8G3JqzbuBG_RlrufU02FOclNzsgESy7RWZufb-rATmSToaApEAEALw_wcB If the UK contributes about 13% of the EU budget, then the remaining members will have to find <0.5% of the total budget. Quite a task for those members that currently contribute <2% admittedly, but not impossible if proportionally spread across 27 member states. Point 5. You could ask, but they would politely refuse. They are not in the business of self-harm.
  4. It's obvious to all that there will be considerable short term pain. It looks like we contribute around £7.4bn pa, once you take off rebates and EU spending in the UK (yes, I know WE can decide where that EU money will be spent post Brexit, but farming and sciences have been assured support). https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_Kingdom Roughly 1% of government spending then, or about 1.5% of spending on health, care and education. So there is no "huge stimulus" in the short term. Even going by your figures, there will be short of a 2% reduction in government income, probably more if we can't negotiate a passport deal for services. Can you quantify this long term gain? Your essentially telling me that we can use the money that will not exist to stimulate the economy!
  5. AThirdWay

    Massive Drop In Online Sales For Ebay, Amazon, Play

    Might be the reason I just received an email from ebay telling me of a 15% discount code across most of the low cost categories? This close to Xmas, that seemed a bit desperate.....
  6. It is accepted, even by the most ardent brexiters, that leaving the EU will damage our country (Rees Mogg has said it might be 50 years before we feel the benefit!). The main positive quoted is that we will be able to negotiate better trade deals than the EU has managed. Shall we think on that for a moment? Presumably we have had our best negotiating team at the table during UK/EU negotiations, and it is widely recognised, by both sides, that the deal thrashed out is poor for the UK. How in the world can our 2nd tier negotiating teams, without the clout of the largest trading bloc in the world behind them, expect to get a better deal with these countries? So, as far as I can see, we are facing inarguable short-term (estimates between 2-10 years) damage and arguably long-term damage going forward (Rees Moggs 50 years?). Arguing that "we should never have been trying to get a 'deal' with the EU in the first place", combined with your pro-Russia bias, will inevitably lead to accusations that you are playing Putin's tune. What other conclusion could one come to when you seek to weaken your own country financially and undermine your own government while promoting the Russian narrative? Genuine question btw!
  7. It remains to be seen if they were voting under the influence of Russia, yes? Kremlin money/propaganda may have played a part.... Jus' sayin'...
  8. So, once we have left with no deal, how do we trade? We're months, if not years, away from agreeing a list of WTO tariff schedules, at the mercy of objections from any one of 160-odd other members. A hard border is a pre-requisite for WTO. We're no where near implementing that at the moment, and impossible to get the infrastructure/manning in place in 5 months. WTO doesn't cover services, what happens when we can't flog off that particular golden egg? What happens to that egg-bound goose?
  9. Doesn't it work both ways? Corbyn could be regarded as a left wing populist, the cult of Corbyn?
  10. AThirdWay

    How will history remember Trump? - Poll

    Wiz it, aye? Looks to me to be the worst result for a Republican President since the 70's! He was greeting like a bairn at that press conference 🤣
  11. AThirdWay

    Brexit - Have you changed your mind?

    As I mentioned in my first post, I also expected the negotiations to be messy (I used the word "disaster"), but not as messy (disastrous) as this! We could go through all of the Brexiteers that were on the telly pre-referendum, listing their statements on how easy Brexit would be. We could go through almost every newspaper headline pre-referendum telling us how bright and shiny the future will be 24 months from triggering Article 50, and how we'll be able to forge a better way in the world, free of the EUSSR. If we take all of that coverage into account, it is not unreasonable to assume that those leave voters who believed that coverage did NOT expect this level of mess. Is it reasonable to assume they did NOT take the likely mess into account prior to voting, because the media told them it was project fear? Pre-amble over, I note you still haven't answered my question Just one thing that has gone well for UK.Gov in these negotiations..... It is peak irony to note that the team we have negotiating with the EU, presumably the best we've got, will be the best team we've got to go out and attempt to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world post Brexit.... Trade deals that we were told would be better than the EU negotiators managed..... the negotiators that are currently giving our "brave boys" (and girls) a kicking 😀
  12. AThirdWay

    Brexit - Have you changed your mind?

    Oops, there goes another 'red line'.... allegedly. https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-faces-backlash-over-hint-to-extend-brexit-transition-to-2021-11528437
  13. AThirdWay

    Brexit - Have you changed your mind?

    I understand what an election result is but what has that got to do with Brexit? I suppose the election result last year was something else that didn't go well for for the party that gave us Brexit ("strong and stable' 😀)! As for 'negotiation', that was the very subject that my question was directed at. What has gone well with the negotiations? How far has the UK Gov moved on their demands, how far has the EU bent?
  14. AThirdWay

    Brexit - Have you changed your mind?

    Ah, I see. Sorry, I was a bit slow on the pick up there 🤣
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