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Everything posted by crashmonitor

  1. Too many people chasing too few listed properties just now and you only need a few transactions to set an entire Market. Virtually nothing to rent or buy, save for newbuilds if you are prepared to wait 6 to 9 months on an uncertain completion whilst builders battle the biggest shortage of building materials and labour post war. Printing a trillion pounds hasn't helped, locking the country up for one year hasn't either. Pouring more petrol onto the flames is immigration and millions of boomer's children now entering the Market. Seems like you can set your watch by Harrison's 18 year cycle . 2003/ 2021 peak of the booms. Q3 2025 probably when we will begin the bust.
  2. Tend to agree. I think restriction of supply and 3 months pent up demand is holding things up. We are sold (SSTC) and scheduled to complete end of July. We would find it difficult to buy a house even if we wanted to, that really puts a temporary premium on the very few motivated sellers. (1) At my latitude the whole of Wales ( with the 5 miles rule) is effectively closed. (2) We quite like the idea of buying in the east too ( Lincolnshire) but many of the sellers are blue pilled boomers that aren't even doing viewings. (3) We will probably go STR but many people in our position probably wouldn't like that insecurity during a Pandemic. (4) We have even got refused viewing houses because some vendors are only accepting cash or first time buyers. ( that's even though we would be cash if our chain holds, tbf that is always a big if). (5) And indeed furlough bennies and tens of billions in redundancy payouts will hold things up too. So yep not looking like YOY falls til the backend. Patience maybe rewarded who knows. It's probably the first time for a few years that HPC is worth following ( as per Killer Bunny) as opposed ti watching paint dry. I think things might get interesting.
  3. Yes, I noted you predicted a second downwave a few days ago on your "I told you so" thread. I, too, think we will be revisiting the mid 5000s at least on the FTSE 100 measure.
  4. I stopped off at Ruthin last week for longer than usual. I reckon you have got a bit spoilt with Malton and Ruthin because it is well above par by any UK standards. Impressive timbered buildings, a really tidy historic Market Square. Some impressive buildings like the Market, County Offices and castle, and the hills from the Vale looming large in the background. Great Wetherspoons btw. Know what you mean about the dual language though, guy in the Castle Inn was showing off his command of Welsh on his bloody mobile very loudly.
  5. Connect Group in big trouble. Consortium includes Smiths news and Tuffnells carriers. The billion pound revenue group has long been a value share favourite on growing profits on a perennial single digit price to earnings ticket. Unfortunately all done on a tiny profit margin that may have disappeared. Shares down to 30p from recent one pound levels and £2.40 a few years back.
  6. Small time unemployed is probably right. A "good accountant" stretching tax law to the limit is probably a bad one. In my experience most are so fearful of litigation and not being covered by professionsal indemnity that they play with beyond a straight bat these days. I'm not surprised that a quasi public sector institution is involved as there is a myth in public sector circles that accountants are there to defraud tax. The law is so strict now that they have to report fraud to the tax authorities even if they are not involved at penalty of being struck off.
  7. Poundworld bust...announced by BBC as Poundland by mistake. Brief heart attack for any Steinhoff International shareholders owner of Poundland.
  8. Precisely what me and the wife have done, except she still works. About a third property, two thirds invested. Not much point in doing anything else up here; property has barely moved in 15 years. Zoopla says +4.5% during the last two years when stuff has been selling. Getting close to retail price inflation is a boom apparently even as it falls in real terms. Totally different world up here from London and Oxbridge.
  9. Guess that's why a two up, two down in Jericho commands more than a Stately Home in Co Durham. The coal magnate's house is worth less than the home of his retired maid of all works. That's progress and spreading the wealth to the Socialist Republic of Oxford. Peak education I suppose. Go where the Government spends its mounting debt.
  10. And probably cost about ten million to build in today's money.
  11. Think there should be some redress for the care costs but on death via IHT. The largest estates I have been aware of are widows living into their 90s and 100s usually through the accumulation of additional public sector final salary pensions and property. There should be pay back for the hundred of thousands of pounds in care and pension costs. Instead the first 650,000 is tax free...typically these estates are around or just over that mark. And it is some relative or charity that pockets the lot tax free whilst the deceased has contributed to a two trillion plus public sector debt legacy in health snd pension costs.
  12. Fwiw the market in N Midlands is very slow so the days of the provinces masking the crash in areas like Oxbridge and London are probably over. A bit is selling at the bottom for sure, but terrible once you get over 300k. What I really can 't understand is real crap that looks like Coronation Street asking 240k and then really good 4 bed detached cottages, on very good quiet country lanes in half an acre or so asking 400k. May be a symptom of BOMAD that crap is probably +40% noughties peak and good detached property stuck at something like 2003 prices here.
  13. I've tried to switch radio4 on five times this morning but had to switch it off. Basically this mornings offering so far... (1) The heroism of teenage pregnancy (2) The heroism of being a gypsy (3) Acid throwing and disfiguration.. (4) Caribbean slavery (5) Grenfell (on now) (6) UK's broken railways (next) Is the schedule some sort of hell torture for listeners.
  14. What do you expect from a guy with a two million pad in Islington. The only wealth he wants to destroy is savings. A fat lot of good that will do for a hpc. I reckon there will be a panic into anything physical.
  15. Well BT was considered a tech and was number one ranker with a share price of £10.53 and over a hundred billion market cap. Today a couple of quid a share a 20 billion cap and 15 billion final salary pension deficit. Today it's number 29 by cap and definitely Championship a bit like Aston Villa.
  16. On another matter visa is down across Europe. Chaos at the checkouts.
  17. Halifax is capable of a YOY positive after 12 monthly falls eg 15 month data.... 100.0, 100.0, 103.0, 102.9, 102.8, 102.7, 102.6, 102.5, 102.4, 102.3, 102.2, 102.1, 102.0, 101.9, 101.8. Actual fall is 101.8/ 103.0 =minus 1.2% Halifax would calculate (102.0+101.9+101.8=305.7)÷(100+100+103=303) = annual +0.1% Their smoothing Qon Q formula brings in 15 month old data and it takes longer than a year for data to drop out the rolling stats. That's why their current annual stat is flattering to reality.
  18. Think he gets three years to sell previous home and will get refunded the extra stamp duty. So get that BTL up for sale.
  19. Yep the demographics and thoughts on the benefits of immigration differ from country to country. The left and young embrace it here, but apparently the rightwing backlash in Italy has been largely led by the young voter. Hard to imagine 600,000 (540,000 economic) migrants arriving over four years across the English channel as has been the case in Southern Italy from Libya and how that would affect your politics. Meanwhile Japan still virtually bans settlement despite its demographic timebomb siting the failed European multicultural experiment. Careworkers on temporary visas only.
  20. Oxford prices are so far out in lala land that 5% is nothing. When terraced houses in the former slum quarter of Jericho go for one million I think this is just the start.
  21. I see Edmonds successfully sued Morcambe Council after another Blobbyland there hit trouble after just 13 weeks. Council tax payers lost two million quid including the council's one million pound investment in Blobbyland. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/2711393.stm
  22. Wasn't one of the reasons that Unique went bankrupt, Blobbyland? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1220390/Pictured-The-abandoned-ruins-Mr-Blobby-theme-park-ravers-trash-site.html
  23. Gypsies, M6 motorway...sounds like perfect heaven.
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