Carney: Uk Housing Market Has 'deep Problems'

[plummet expert]

Carney and Osborne have no clue. They will allow pump priming and discuss itin clever terms until it goes wrong then they will discuss that in other clever terms. The could just listen......land costs too much and people are allowed to borrow too much to buy it so the price rises. Help to buy is helping 20% price increases arrive and then the wheels come off. It's that simple. Control it!

I see some of you want to vote UKIP. I know we have all seen some news on candidates who have now been fired. I have begun to wonder why the news is so interested in UKIP candidates as opposed to the other parties.

I have been sent some info:

Here is something that you won't see on the BBC, Sky News or any of the front national newspapers.

Since Monday this week, there have been 17 Lib/Lab/Con councillors arrested, charged or convicted of offences including perverting the course of justice, child pornography, firearms and electoral fraud. In the same period, a further 13 have been involved in racism, sexism or homophobic scandals. Only 1 - Lord Hanningfield - has featured in the national media.

If any of them would have been UKIP, they would have made the news.

Take a look, and see how many of these you can spot in the national media!

Tory councillor in Chingford to be sentenced today over firearms charges
http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/wfnews/11217704.Gun_offence_Tory_to_be_sentenced_today/

Tory councillor resigns from party over firearms conviction in Somerset
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Conservative-councillor-Tim-Marter-resigns-ban/story-21098133-detail/story.html

'Independent' councillor - whose wife is a Labour county councillor - has disqualification for bullying reduced to 18 months
http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/flintshire-councillor-banned-bullying-disqualification-7127671

Labour councillor has case adjourned until safely after the election after her own (Labour controlled) council makes shambles of court paperwork in Thurrock
http://www.yourthurrock.com/2014/05/16/councillors-shambolic-case-adjourned-until-october/

Former Lib Dem councillor now standing as independent charged with benefits fraud in Kingston
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/local/kingstonnews/11216830.Kingston_councillor_charged_with_benefit_fraud_will_face_polls_before_court/

Conservative councillor arrested over false barrister claims in Guildford
http://www.964eagle.co.uk/news/local-news/1285174/exclusive-guildford-councillor-speaks-to-eagle-following-her-arrest/

Lib Dem councillor convicted of benefit fraud charges forced of council committees after refusing to resign in Tiverton
http://www.middevongazette.co.uk/Fraudster-councillor-Tiverton-forced-committees/story-21101893-detail/story.html

Conservative councillor receives one year ban for drink driving in Skegness
http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Conservative-councillor-handed-ban-drink-driving/story-21093349-detail/story.html

Police launch electoral fraud investigation into Labour councillor in Slough over intimidation relating to postal votes
http://www.sloughobserver.co.uk/news/slough/articles/2014/05/15/100278-police-launch-election-fraud-probe-after-allegations-a-slough-labour-candidate-intimidated-a-resident-into-filling-out-her-postal-vote-/

Conservative candidate disqualified after £30k benefits fraud conviction comes to light in Enfield
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/conservative-candidate-guilty-of-cheating-london-council-in-30000-benefits-scam-9375335.html

5 Labour councillors resign from party in Middlesbrough citing racism of local Labour Party among other complaints
http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/five-middlesbrough-councillors-resign-labour-7080454

Tory council accused of turning blind eye to license breaches at pub owned by Tory councillor during function on behalf of Tory mayor in Crayford
http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/11207456.Bexley_Council_accused_of__whitewash__on_investigation_into_strippers_at_Crayford_pub/?ref=var_0

SNP activists claims Tory councillor made sexist remarks (but nobody else heard) in Berwickshire
http://www.thesouthernreporter.co.uk/news/local-headlines/tory-in-indy-sexist-claim-1-3411729#.U3R80R4ieDw.twitter

Labour councillor faces investigation over homophobic remarks directed at gay rival in Liverpool
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-liberal-councillor-steve-radford-7122909

More resignations from Labour Party in Thanet following leader's resignation over homophobia claims earlier this week
http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Labour-leader-hits-deputy-leader-resigns/story-21093241-detail/story.html



http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-latest-digest-of-crimes-etc-by.html

Tories - 2 on firearms offences, 1 for falsely claiming to be a barrister, 1 drink driving ban, 1 disqualified for benefits fraud, 1 cronyism over pub license breach, 1 accused of sexist remarks

Labour - 1 banned from office for bullying, 1 cronyism delaying prosecution for benefits fraud, 1 electoral fraud allegation, 5 resignations over racism claims, 2 resignations over homophobia claims, 1 facing investigation into homophobic remarks

Lib Dem - 2 on benefits fraud charges

[tinker]

BBC News tonight, all kinds of doublespeak. Huge housing demand, not enough supply, boom in prices. We need to act to restrict demand by scaling back Help To Buy. They never ever address the real problem - over-priced houses, the power of the developer lobby. The market would sort itself out if left to itself and if banks made to take risk and longevity into account.

Carney, Osborne, and those that have gone before have betrayed us all.

If we really do need more houses, use the housing benefit budget to invest in houses for the nation.

[thecrashingisles]

BBC News tonight, all kinds of doublespeak. Huge housing demand, not enough supply

Yes it was a weird report. Anyone watching it would think that the big risk was that if we don't build more then the big boom in prices will stagnate.

[slawek]

Looking at historical data housing problem in the UK is more the result of higher investment demand than lower supply. Privately rented stock started rising 200k per year since around 2002. This demand stimulated building, all dwellings annual change increased from 150k to over 200k per year in 2008, then collapsed back to 150k after the financial crisis. Privately rented stock was still rising at 200k pace after 2008 causing owner occupied stock to decrease 50-100k per year. I would blame BTLs and other private investors, they compete with people wanting to buy a home to live. 200k per year investment demand is a big chunk of the whole market, my guess is there is around 400-500k sales transaction in England (for the whole of the UK that's around 600k).

Source https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-dwelling-stock-including-vacants

[interestrateripoff]

Its ok house prices only go up.

Whats the problem.

[zugzwang]

Carny — Someone who works in a carnival. The term is also applied to the carnival itself.

Mark — A townsperson you focus on as a victim. When a carny spotted a towny with a big bankroll, he would give him a friendly slap on the back leaving a chalk mark so other carnies would know that this customer had lots of money.

Carny Roll — A bankroll consisting of a high-value bill or two wrapped around a lot of $1 bills, flashed by the agent to give the impression that a mark could make a lot of money playing this agent's game.

[Venger]

2, It's very important to remember the ONLY thing stopping new homes being built is the government and the planning LAW. The government could force right-to-build laws through as an emergency measure as they have admitted their is a crisis.

Not true. It's fools who think solution for more affordable housing is to build more houses, without having a necessary price-crash first. Last week I've read "BTL is the new savings account"... "There's no winners allowing a crash" "They just wanted a home." !*!*!!

Without a correction, building land is too expensive, and those who hold it, not prepared to sell it cheap. I know the response we got from an approach for the end part of a very long garden; ideal for a self-build. Elderly owners (hogging the 6 bed house)... not had kids in that house for years, not interested at all, even for what I considered to be a very generous offer for some of their very long garden.

Proper crash would have been like Laurejon. Instead more of the same now, without price-crash, and builders reporting mulit-million record profits? And for at least one big developer, lot of upset people over the poor quality of the houses they've recently bought. (Thanks 'renting til I die' for backing me up on older people lacking incentive to downsize to free up family homes and pull down values).

I have bought several plots of land over the years for development.

I purchased an old shack with no permission on the south coast for 40K in 1989 and gained permission for a pair of semi-detached chalet bungalows.

15months later having completed that project and sold them on and made a tidy sum I purchased a very similar plot same size but with outline for 115,000 and used the same drawings for th detailed application that was passed immediately using the other sites permission as a precedence.

The recession hit, and the bank revalued the site I had paid 115,000 for at 25,000

During the recession, you could not give a plot of land away, it would cost more to build a house than the house was worth on the open market, and that did not include the land prices.

Therefore land was essentially worthless.

If anyone is thinking of building their own house, then now is the time to sell up as there will be lots of bargains coming on tap very soon. Banks that have let to small time developers do not wait long before they want their money back in a recession.

I had seven days notice to repay 400k in the last recession, which comes as a bit of a shock. But business is business, and the banks will tell you, that if you cant sell it, they are only too happy to sell it for you.

Another property I was building at the time was valued off plan at 300K that was valued by the bank at 150K which is less than the cost of the build let alone the land.

Edited May 18, 2014 by Venger

[Bland Unsight]

I don't remember that being the stated purpose.

Looks like you missed a memo

My thread - Bank Of England Education On Quantitative Easing

I posted all the key parts for fear of them being removed at some later point. We're not there yet - BoE website for the original educational video.

The key frame would be this one

Bloo Loo 1 Ah-so 0

[rantnrave]

For posterity

[TheCountOfNowhere]

For posterity

I still think a lot of these headlines are reverse psychology....i.e. THERE IS A HOUSE PRICE BOOM....when clearly in most of the country, there isn't, just a small number of BTL idiots paying over the odds for a houses that will be worth half ( at some point ). Rememebr, when house prices half you don't loose half you deposit, you loose ALL of it.

[shindigger]

were gettting a labour government either way!

I hate Labour with a passion, but that'll do me.

15/16 could be very interesting if they get back in.

[Bruce Banner]

I hate Labour with a passion, but that'll do me.

15/16 could be very interesting if they get back in.

Yes. they may decide to burst their bubble and rewrite history to blame it on the Tories.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

were getting a labour government which backs the establishment either way!

[shindigger]

For posterity

Not only that, but a picture of the Boom denying, property millionaire/mekon, Mr Javed at the top.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Yes. they may decide to burst their bubble and rewrite history to blame it on the Tories.

The banker supporting tories are bursting the bubble and the banker supporting labour party will sweep to victory.

One of the parties will get the blame but none of them will be locked up and one of them made pay for their mistakes.

Democracy, got to love it.

Edited May 19, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere

[shindigger]

were getting a labour government which backs the establishment either way!

Yup. But what will the "foreigners" think of a Labour gubmint?

That's what i'm clinging to right now.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Yup. But what will the "foreigners" think of a Labour gubmint?

That's what i'm clinging to right now.

I wonder what they think of the borrowing/debt pushing tories, I see no difference between labour and tory at the moment.

Osborne's bubble has brought to the attention of everyone the stupidity of the government underpinned housing market.

This baby is going down.

[richc]

Looks like you missed a memo

My thread - Bank Of England Education On Quantitative Easing

I posted all the key parts for fear of them being removed at some later point. We're not there yet - BoE website for the original educational video.

The key frame would be this one

Bloo Loo 1 Ah-so 0

I read these justifications for QE and, from an economist's point of view, I just think "what effing morons" (though, of course, they're not stupid, just deeply cynical and corrupt sleazeballs because they're well aware of what they're doing).

It's clear that the intended effect of QE is to raise asset prices in order to induce the "wealth effect", but it's well know that the wealth effect is asymmetric -- loses are felt more keenly than gains. Any wealth effect created by an artificial boost to asset prices will be swamped by the negative wealth effect as those artificial boosters are withdrawn. The overall effect will be sharply net negative. This is exactly what was seen as central banks tried to boost assets during 2000-2006, leading to an enormous bust in 2007.

Proponents of QE are using a rational actor approach to economics that is 20 years out of date. What they're doing is just plain wrong, not only from a practical layman's point of view, but also from a theoretical standpoint.

Edited May 19, 2014 by richc

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I read these justifications for QE and, from an economist's point of view, I just think "what effing morons" (though, of course, they're not stupid, just deeply cynical and corrupt sleazeballs because they're well aware of what they're doing).

I read these justifications for QE and, from an economist's point of view, I just think "what effing corrupt selfish out of touch fraudster thieves".

Moron would imply being stupid....I dont think they are.

[Ultra Fox]

I still think a lot of these headlines are reverse psychology....i.e. THERE IS A HOUSE PRICE BOOM....when clearly in most of the country, there isn't, just a small number of BTL idiots paying over the odds for a houses that will be worth half ( at some point ). Rememebr, when house prices half you don't loose half you deposit, you loose ALL of it.

Seems to me they are trying to slow down the market by drawing more negative attention to raising prices. Hoping that slows the book without actually doing anything meaningfull. I.e. they are trying to change public perception instead of IRs

[btl_hater]

For posterity

"Immigrants must learn to be British says Asian minister" FFS, the Express readership is a joke.

[cybernoid]

For posterity

Its interesting to watch the media deal with the hpc view becoming mainstream. The recent 180 must have confused the hell out of a lot of people. Rising prices good! Rising prices good! Rising prices good! Rising prices bad! Heads explode.

News readers are having trouble too. Hilarious watching the bbc attempt to hold two opposing opinions at the same time.

This is quite the turning point, in sentiment at least. 10 years after we all got it the rest of the country starts to understand… and now they will all say they knew it was damaging all along.

Its actually quite frightening how many people repeat whatever the media says that week and still think its their own opinion.

[Eddie_George]

Its interesting to watch the media deal with the hpc view becoming mainstream. The recent 180 must have confused the hell out of a lot of people. Rising prices good! Rising prices good! Rising prices good! Rising prices bad! Heads explode.

News readers are having trouble too. Hilarious watching the bbc attempt to hold two opposing opinions at the same time.

This is quite the turning point, in sentiment at least. 10 years after we all got it the rest of the country starts to understand… and now they will all say they knew it was damaging all along.

Its actually quite frightening how many people repeat whatever the media says that week and still think its their own opinion.

[Bloo Loo]

I read these justifications for QE and, from an economist's point of view, I just think "what effing corrupt selfish out of touch fraudster thieves".

Moron would imply being stupid....I dont think they are.

thats because the aim of the Central Bank was to get the valueless assets off the books of the private banks...the whole idea of the Central bank is to preserve the banking system...QE does exactly that...raises asset values and keeps the banks solvent...on paper...which is what counts at the Regulators desk.

Of course, they never had to buy ALL the assets, as the Fed seems to be doing...because once a value is laid for a particular class of asset, then the banker holding others can rightfully say, hand on heart, "somebody has paid this price, and therefore we can value all these others accordingly".

The Fed however, has also recognised a liquidity issue with their banks...they are having to buy (QE) billion every month...The balance sheet cheat just isnt working...neither did our effort, hence FLS and other schemes..all bailouts for busted banks in the UK, disguised as myriad schemes with a public facing good purpose, so nobody in the media even questions it.

Edited May 19, 2014 by Bloo Loo

[Sour Mash]

I read these justifications for QE and, from an economist's point of view, I just think "what effing corrupt selfish out of touch fraudster thieves".

Moron would imply being stupid....I dont think they are.

Exactly - when corruption and malfeasance from official institutions become visible/are discovered, they are typically presented to the public as stupidity and incompetence. No-one goes to jail for being dumb and sub-par.

You see it all the time when you get massive public sector spending 'screwups' where they vastly overspend on stuff they don't need or which doesn't do its job. Or when the tax authorities 'mess up' and allow some major corporation or powerful individual off the hook ... "Cor blimey, those idiot public sector workers, eh? They've gone and done it again -would you Adam and Eve it?".

Edited May 19, 2014 by Sour Mash