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plummet expert

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  1. An increase in personal credit at this juncture indicates a small lift in confidence that the so called recovery is here to stay. Unfortunately this will be proved wrong as markets are gradually heading towards a precipice. The balance of payments is showing the largest deficit since records began in 1955 ! This shows borrowing in the economy, whether govt or corporate or privat, as a whole, is woefully out of control.
  2. Smiley, The Structural deficit is still £97 billion pa, not £44 bn. Even £97 bn is a fiddled figure: The Govt is still quietly taking QE money in the form of APF which is interest on the debt the Bank of England bought back with the phoney money being QE. Last month the Govt received £4.1 bn of this imaginary money said to be PSB neutral - so invented on the bank of England computer and sent to the Treasury I assume. The amount of income tax taken in the last year increased by only £200 million, when employment grew by half a million people and the govt claims wages are rising faster than inflation - it's not everyone's experience. Most people feel they are getting poorer, but a little more slowly. The Autumn statement grossly exaggerated the improvements in the economy. The key claim that the Govt has cut the deficit in half since 2010 is not entirely true. The Chancellor has swapped to using a measure of debt as a percentage of GDP instead of looking at the actual fall in month to month debt. Even then if we look at the last year, the debt expressed this way has risen from 77.7% to 79.5% of GDP. No wonder Labour has opened up a 5 point poll lead, even though Balls and Miliband have no clue. Smoke n Mirrors rule. I will Vote UKIP and have the nature of politics changed, along with saving £9 bn and rising, on EU membership , and reducing overseas aid by about £9 bn pa - and so much else..... http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_386141.pdf see pages 8 & 9
  3. There are great similarities, except we now appear to be weaker coming out of the depression than in the 1930's. We may have avoided the very lowest point suffered in the 1930's but if that is because we have massively borrowed and printed to cause the feeble growth, then it will be worse from here. We have no credit left. The world begins to deflate. Our growth falls and borrowing rises even more significantly. This scenario lays bare the fact that our national debt cannot be serviced and bond sales dry up. We are not a manufacturing exporting nation in any sufficient way. We rely on pumping up house prices and consumption. Our balance of payments has been negative for almost all of the last 40 years. We have allowed foreign investment to such an extent that we do not own large parts of the economy and are losing out on Corporation tax since too much of the profit is sent abroad. Hopefully better growth will overcome this. No guarantees unfortunately. As an exception, I do believe a house price crash would actually be healthy and although disturbing for some, ultimately would lead to renewed vigour in the economy if tied to controlled lending in the residential sector. We also need to control foreign investment in property and tighetn our company takeover code. Then we could encourage the creation of both more banks and enrgy companies. I had better stop....
  4. Why indeed? The national debt has reached £1,450 Billion. Ie £1.45 Trillion There is no respite. We are not growing enough to stop the debt piling up or pay one penny back. At only 2% the interest payment would be £70 bn per year. I earned about this on this site in 2010. The ring fencing of education and health was politically easier but actually long term foolish. It will all be worse for not dealing with it in 2010. We also pay £11.5 bn pa for overseas aid when we cannot afford it. It was £4 bn in 2010. We pay £8.6 bn to the Eu which is net of any receipts. A total waste. We cost industry billions on wasted ted tape over the Eu. We need to ask, just how much tax will you pay for people to miss their nhs free appointments? We need property prices and assets to fall and get our economy into balance. We need to control land speculation now. We need to reverse the effect of QE which has slaughtered any sense of financial justice. We will all have to vote UKIP as they are more likely to tell you the unfortunate truth.
  5. You have missed the simple fact that the figure is the turnover increase by the presence of more persons. It has nothing to do with the possible costs of their being here. If the size of the cake did not increase as a result of their presence then it would inevitably mean the slice of the GDP cake per person (real GDP) WOULD SHRINK. In fact the recently published figures from the ONS have demonstrated that the real GDP of this country has actually shrunk in recent years. Obviously that varies from person to person. There is no way in the world that a huge influx of often unskilled migrants on low wages can have assisted our economy. I would be here if I was them and lay no blame upon them trying to improve their lives. On a minimum wage - I will give you a real life example - A woman with 6 children (so her paperwork claims) all of whom live in Latvia, works in retail on £6.50 per hour, but her wages do not cover her costs. She claims housing benefit, child tax credits, tax credits (working 30 hrs per week) AND child benefit for six kids. That scenario is actual and according to my knowledge. This is the problem. Lovely though many of these folk are, they rarely make UK PLC a profit as such. They often send the money they make home and so it's not recirculating in our economy. That would take a long time. The biggest difficulty is there is a scarcity of housing, pressure on hospitals/GP's who are at breaking point and no more space without building over FarmLand. So your choice is to stop this or allow it and face the costs and consequences of continuing to add to what is already a highly populated country. Population of France per sq Km = 114, UK PER SQ KM= 255
  7. Well oddly enough they are wrong, not for pure economic reasons but because govt can arrange otherwise. When there were rent controls in Britain UP TIL THE 1970'S THERE WAS also alot more social housing and lower immigration. Rent controls never resulted in a discussion suggesting there was a shortage of housing! There were moans about standards of private rented housing, so what's changed!!!???? Waht we need is lower LAND prices and these should be controlled, not the cost of building. Specualtion on Land should be properly taxed and loans for homes should be properly controlled to match incomes and capability to pay. I could have it all tickety boo within 5 years......
  8. Of course the Govt should build sufficient social housng. we haven't doen that for decades now. We should all recognise that selling off council houses was ultinately a mistaken policy. It led to higher home prices; dissatisfaction that some people got free equity via a discount; and homes not being replaced so depleting social housing stock. Add to this the rediculous loose lending allowed by banks AND allowing foreign investors to buy and sell without tax, it has been recipe for mind blowing price hikes. UKIP will put its common sense hat on I think. They seem to have an interesting mixture of policy, not just a left nor right stance. I suspect they may do rather better than alll the predictions. The Tory fear campaign that only the Tories will guarantee an EU referendum is ahollow and cynical manouvre. The fact is, if you vote in a UKIP mp then they would either join with a minority Tory party to force an EU referendum, OR THEY COULD influence it if in parliament with a Tory majority. They could even save the Tories should Labour have more seats but less than a majority, by joining forces AND AGAIN force an EU Referendum. MR Cameron has few friends amongst Tory activists now and is in a weaker position than even he realises. I can't see a Labour majority happening atall
  9. The EA's have no idea that the last bubble never properly burst due to govt measures. The new one is even worse and has a bit more to give, but it will burst with a bigger bang than should have happened through 2010-11. If Govt had properly dealt with this, base interest rates would long ago have been returned to about 4% and mortgage multiples could have been capped at 2.5 x income when homes came down in price anyway. Then we would be looking at growth in the productive sector and homes being bought because they are shelter and not just some speculative investment. Investment would have gone towards industry and output and exports. That would have been real rebalancing of the economy. We have no such thing. The only thing the Bof E govnor is right about; the housing market is the biggest risk to the UK economy. I would already have put it right and real growth would now have begun. Real wages against the cost of living would be improving. Instead? People in the their 20's and 30's cannot buy a bed sitting room on their salary. The level of PROPERTY poverty amongst anyone sub 35 in the UK is very high due to property prices and rents. We have the home owners controlling the rest and its not good for our country. I have FAR too much equity in my home for the time I have owned it. It is rediculous that it has risen 4 x in just 17 yrs during a period of very low inflation.
  10. I think you mean a house worth £695k today was probably about £6k in 1964, not £30k. Some places have risen more than 65 x in the time period 1964 to today!
  11. The UKIP candidate highlights the problem exactly from the tory local councillor view. There are many people whio oppose further development as it may involve eating up green belt and consuming towns. There are far too many people on our tiny Island causing the pressure on housing. The number of homes with 6 persons or more is now soaring as families become extende and sharers increse rapidly. Sure, the number of houses being built is too low to release the pressure BUT, THEY ARE ALL TOO ***K*** EXPENSIVE FOR ANYONE NORMAL TO BUY. The 'help to buy' is just pushing up prices. The real culprit is lending policy causing people to offer 4x two incomes plus a deposit for a home!!!! The last Gov of the B of E, dear old Mervyn King was absolutely right when he said people will borrow whatever they are allowed by a bank. You only have to look at France and Germany to realise we have got it WOEFULLY WRONG. It is ruining our childrens future. We oldies need to relinquish this false equity so the younger ones can afford to buy on their salaries. We did not earn the money which made our £35k house in the North Lanes of Brighton become £475k in 22 yrs did we? We did not earn the equity of a house in Brighton bought in 1970 for £10k now being 'worth' £680k did we? NO, these 3 bedroom examples are not even large homes but are actual examples I am aware of in my own family. For £680k you could buy a chateau with vinyards in France. Our prices are too high because of GOVT policy on easy lending; no doubt about it. It causes BOOm and Buuuuuuussst (once abolished by Brown). You don't hear of boom and bust in France or Germany. We nned social housing and sensible strict lending. UKIP is right - we do not need immigrants to make the pressure worse still. There is no space. Currently 212,000 net immigrants per year is madness. about 300, 000 leave every year. Why not allow only 200,000 to come in and net effect is reduction by 100,000 pa. No one could claim that we could not find enough skilled persons from 200,000 people. I will now vote UKIP and suggest we all do, at least until we are out of the EU and can controil our own destiny. Don't get it wrong, I like our diverse country and all the advantages of having a mixture of cultures, but we have no room to comfortably accept more. It is opponents of UKIP who keep tyrying to call this agenda racist when it is nothing of the sort. Just let's have our democracy back in Westminster.
  12. Carney and Osborne have no clue. They will allow pump priming and discuss itin clever terms until it goes wrong then they will discuss that in other clever terms. The could just listen......land costs too much and people are allowed to borrow too much to buy it so the price rises. Help to buy is helping 20% price increases arrive and then the wheels come off. It's that simple. Control it! I see some of you want to vote UKIP. I know we have all seen some news on candidates who have now been fired. I have begun to wonder why the news is so interested in UKIP candidates as opposed to the other parties. I have been sent some info: Here is something that you won't see on the BBC, Sky News or any of the front national newspapers. Since Monday this week, there have been 17 Lib/Lab/Con councillors arrested, charged or convicted of offences including perverting the course of justice, child pornography, firearms and electoral fraud. In the same period, a further 13 have been involved in racism, sexism or homophobic scandals. Only 1 - Lord Hanningfield - has featured in the national media. If any of them would have been UKIP, they would have made the news. Take a look, and see how many of these you can spot in the national media! Tory councillor in Chingford to be sentenced today over firearms charges http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/wfnews/11217704.Gun_offence_Tory_to_be_sentenced_today/ Tory councillor resigns from party over firearms conviction in Somerset http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Conservative-councillor-Tim-Marter-resigns-ban/story-21098133-detail/story.html 'Independent' councillor - whose wife is a Labour county councillor - has disqualification for bullying reduced to 18 months http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/flintshire-councillor-banned-bullying-disqualification-7127671 Labour councillor has case adjourned until safely after the election after her own (Labour controlled) council makes shambles of court paperwork in Thurrock http://www.yourthurrock.com/2014/05/16/councillors-shambolic-case-adjourned-until-october/ Former Lib Dem councillor now standing as independent charged with benefits fraud in Kingston http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/local/kingstonnews/11216830.Kingston_councillor_charged_with_benefit_fraud_will_face_polls_before_court/ Conservative councillor arrested over false barrister claims in Guildford http://www.964eagle.co.uk/news/local-news/1285174/exclusive-guildford-councillor-speaks-to-eagle-following-her-arrest/ Lib Dem councillor convicted of benefit fraud charges forced of council committees after refusing to resign in Tiverton http://www.middevongazette.co.uk/Fraudster-councillor-Tiverton-forced-committees/story-21101893-detail/story.html Conservative councillor receives one year ban for drink driving in Skegness http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Conservative-councillor-handed-ban-drink-driving/story-21093349-detail/story.html Police launch electoral fraud investigation into Labour councillor in Slough over intimidation relating to postal votes http://www.sloughobserver.co.uk/news/slough/articles/2014/05/15/100278-police-launch-election-fraud-probe-after-allegations-a-slough-labour-candidate-intimidated-a-resident-into-filling-out-her-postal-vote-/ Conservative candidate disqualified after £30k benefits fraud conviction comes to light in Enfield http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/conservative-candidate-guilty-of-cheating-london-council-in-30000-benefits-scam-9375335.html 5 Labour councillors resign from party in Middlesbrough citing racism of local Labour Party among other complaints http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/five-middlesbrough-councillors-resign-labour-7080454 Tory council accused of turning blind eye to license breaches at pub owned by Tory councillor during function on behalf of Tory mayor in Crayford http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/11207456.Bexley_Council_accused_of__whitewash__on_investigation_into_strippers_at_Crayford_pub/?ref=var_0 SNP activists claims Tory councillor made sexist remarks (but nobody else heard) in Berwickshire http://www.thesouthernreporter.co.uk/news/local-headlines/tory-in-indy-sexist-claim-1-3411729#.U3R80R4ieDw.twitter Labour councillor faces investigation over homophobic remarks directed at gay rival in Liverpool http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-liberal-councillor-steve-radford-7122909 More resignations from Labour Party in Thanet following leader's resignation over homophobia claims earlier this week http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Labour-leader-hits-deputy-leader-resigns/story-21093241-detail/story.html http://nopenothope.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-latest-digest-of-crimes-etc-by.html Tories - 2 on firearms offences, 1 for falsely claiming to be a barrister, 1 drink driving ban, 1 disqualified for benefits fraud, 1 cronyism over pub license breach, 1 accused of sexist remarks Labour - 1 banned from office for bullying, 1 cronyism delaying prosecution for benefits fraud, 1 electoral fraud allegation, 5 resignations over racism claims, 2 resignations over homophobia claims, 1 facing investigation into homophobic remarks Lib Dem - 2 on benefits fraud charges
  13. That's right! Don't also forget the feeble Maudling boom of 1963 and the tories lost to Labour in 1964. The fact is many people know that rising home prices, that go far beyond wage increases lead to trouble. The current help to buy policy is sheer lunacy. Wages have barely picked up and some are still falling, yet houses are going up now, in some areas quite sharply. The British voter is less wedded to tory and Labour than for many generations. There is a shift taking place with UKIP causing it. True, you won't be seeing a UKIP Govt ANY TIME SOON, BUT YOU WILL SEE UKIP MP's. The intervening issue is the EU and immigration policy. The polls show that Cameron/Osborne are not seeing a tory resurgence. People do not want Cameron or Osborne to lead the country. They are not that sure of Ed Milliband, although they appreciate him speaking out against the cot of living. He is missing the target. Homes and Rents costs far too much! I heard the BBC radio 4 announce that if wages had kept up with home prices since 1984, then average wages would be £87,000 pa. WE KNOW THAT! I have time and again said prices are up to 50% too high. People are able to borrow rediculous multiples of their income and help to buy is on the top! That makes the prices sky high, when if they were allowed to borrrow these stupid sums, the prices would generally fall to match - some prime London and cash/investment property excepted. Compare the price of a French home to LONDON/SOUTH EAST HOME http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-34692163.html?premiumA=true THAT'S FOUR HOUSES ON 10 ACRES http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42216178.html THATS ONE 3 BED END OF TERRACE
  14. You've never had it so bad! Superlie has been in power for years, successfully pulling the wool over the eyes of many of the electorate. Let's lie about tuition fees; re-balancing the economy; reducing the deficit - now doubled. Let's lie about living standards; QE and its effect; 'we are all in it together' ; growth not related to property pump priming; exports falling; savings rates at a 40 yr low ; a balance of payments crisis, the worst in 25 yrs. Let's remember that between 1947 and 1974, the UK ran a trade surplus and since 1974 we have barely had a surplus. We now have phoney money created 'at will' by banks making loans. We have the most expensive housing and rents we have ever seen in the South, compared to wages, so where is the success? The biggest stumbling block to any true recovery and re-direction of investment towards the productive economy, is the way we allow borrowing for homes and BTL investment for residential homes. It' s fake growth being reported as a true improvement in wealth creation. Which such 'boom' created any lasting wealth? Chancellors; Maudling 1963-4, Barber 1973-4; Lawson 1986-8; Brown 'no more boom and bust' 2002-8. Brown's contribution created the biggest, longest hike in homes prices ever (excluding wage and other price inflation). During this period we have lost more than half our manufacturing base. Making PUMPING up home prices a Brish Govt policy has meant that we have had to pay much larger wages to keep up. Over time, we have found we couldn't manufacture anything a for a price the world could pay or even a price we would be prepared to pay ourselves.... You've never seen it so sad......
  15. Our prosperity has NOTHING to do with being a member of the EU. We may trade with them, but have no need to be ruled by them. The % of GDP exported TOthe EU by Norway and Switzerland both exceeds ours and they are NOT inthe EU and don't want to be. They retain their own currency. There is no wealth pot created by the EU - in fact it is a failing economic area. It has landed all southern Europe with being actually bust and youth unemployemnt as high as 63% in Greece.
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