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22/04/2024 - The exact moment the housing bubble burst


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HOLA441
1 minute ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

No, just wanted to point out a couple of truths to the uneducated troll hordes.

I'm enjoying watching this unravel, the fact remains, IRs are 5.25% and house prices are unsellable with the monthly payments required to service the debt.  A friend in London has seen his monthly mortgage repayments double on a BTL flat :lol: 

@Orb and I are watching Northamptonshire fall apart now, the bottom end seems to be tanking, stuff in the middle is sitting SSTC for 9 months then returning to the market and the top end is seeing 100s fo 1000s knocked off and not selling now.

I hope for all the young people and people struggling with rent that this keeps collapsing for years to come.

The trolls, they hope the opposite, I wonder why. 

Anyway RR, keep up the good work.

Are you buying soon?

 

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HOLA442
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HOLA443
58 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

yes mate, it's a band average house in a crappy midlands town, they couldn't' sell these for £200K in 2019.

But I've just shown you data that a 340k detached house shows isn't average for Wellingborough?  Regardless of whether you think Wellingborough is a nice place or not (and I know it pretty well) the facts are that average house prices in Wellingborough are not miles away from what people on average Wellingborough salaries can afford.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/wellingborough.html

Properties in Wellingborough had an overall average price of £239,206 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Wellingborough during the last year were terraced properties, selling for an average price of £201,958. Semi-detached properties sold for an average of £242,692, with detached properties fetching £350,532.

Overall, sold prices in Wellingborough over the last year were 12% down on the previous year and 1% up on the 2021 peak of £236,774.

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HOLA444
2 hours ago, Tony_Teacake said:

It's funny when commentators like you accuse people of living in a bedsit because they are predicting a crash in house prices. Not sure how I would fit in a bedsit with my 2 dogs.

Don't forget when advertising your box room you will also throw YouTube in with your Apple music.

You may have to hike your rent up for your new lodger if we get another surge in interest rates as your mortgage payments rise.

Bedsit, bungalow, same difference hey. Must be cosy in there with your two dogs? Think you’ll find YouTube is free for anyone, but yes, if I take in a lodger they’ll have access to the internet. Given I’m on a fixed term 1.7% until spring 2027, interest rate rises won’t be affecting me for a while yet. Given our current mortgage is about 25% of take home income, we’ll be just fine thanks. You carry on laughing at this imaginary me you’ve created on the internet though if it helps you deal with the four walls you spend your day staring at. 

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HOLA445
47 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

A friend in London has seen his monthly mortgage repayments double on a BTL flat :lol: 

:lol:

4,000 people have had similar news on their remortgaging efforts today, following a similar number on Tuesday...

 

...and another 4,000 tomorrow...

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HOLA446
On 4/22/2024 at 7:40 PM, Quid Game said:

There’s not a single person in my social circle who I know is bricking it about rates. It never comes up in conversation. We’re planning our holiday to Japan later in the year. Mates off to Barbados, Europe etc etc. Depends on your group I guess. When are you going to give up on predictions? 

I’m the same. 

Mortgage rates rose, but so did other bills, and thankfully our wages. 

Higher rates have tamed HPI, however I’ve said before on these boards, many, many, many times… there won’t be a crash in Scotland.

I’ve put a few bids in on houses I posted links to in recent months. In a few examples we bid 10-15% over the home report valuation and were still only 3rd or 4th highest bidder.

Prices are cooling, it’s very evident. Very good properties are selling strongly. Average places that people overpaid for in recent years are not doing very well.

Theres not the same desperation among buyers right now. Very few houses are going to speedy closing dates and often houses are just selling for their asking price. 
 

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HOLA447
On 4/22/2024 at 7:22 PM, Stewy said:

This is likely to cost less than people are saving in National Insurance this month.

Next. 

Yeah, you do realise that most of that saving is wiped out by the fiscal drag of not increasing the income tax thresholds. But you would know that if you had any economic knowledge or indeed intelligence, which you clearly do not.

Edited by Joris Bohnson
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HOLA448

Given the various comments re Northamptonshire on this thread I thought I’d do a random Rightmove check for 1 town. Chose Daventry, houses not flats, 3 or 4 bedrooms. 
 

113 for sale. 244 either for sale or SSTC. So roughly half of the available stock receiving an acceptable offer (of course a percentage may collapse).

Seems a reasonably well functioning market to me. 

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HOLA449
22 minutes ago, Huggy said:

:lol:

4,000 people have had similar news on their remortgaging efforts today, following a similar number on Tuesday...

 

...and another 4,000 tomorrow...

Really ???! First I'd heard of it.. 😄

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HOLA4411
5 minutes ago, Sackboii said:

Really ???! First I'd heard of it.. 😄

I shouldn't keep these things to myself :lol:

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HOLA4412

Time for debtors face the reality that they are just poor. 

Our bent financial system needs more and more victims to keep it upright, so debtors are the cannon fodder who sacrifice their lives in order to borrow created out of thin air, worthless fiat......otherwise our corrupt debt based financial system falls over and dies.

A strange way to waste precious time on earth, but millions want it......

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HOLA4413
30 minutes ago, Nick Cash said:

Given the various comments re Northamptonshire on this thread I thought I’d do a random Rightmove check for 1 town. Chose Daventry, houses not flats, 3 or 4 bedrooms. 
 

113 for sale. 244 either for sale or SSTC. So roughly half of the available stock receiving an acceptable offer (of course a percentage may collapse).

Seems a reasonably well functioning market to me. 

I didn’t think that’s very effective research tbh. STC’s seem to linger on RM for months. I can tell you my local area, prices are slowly coming down and it’s all just ground to a halt. It seems to have become much worse since it’s become clear rates aren’t going to move anytime soon. I think it’s gone from a potentially good time to buy, inflation adjusted they started to look cheap with rate cuts in the horizon to oh shit I might be paying the bank 20k a year in interest indefinitely. 
 

I had a quick look at Daventry and filtered by 14 days (obvs longest possible) using your criteria. 40 listed, 3 stc. 

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HOLA4414
3 minutes ago, locky82 said:

I didn’t think that’s very effective research tbh. STC’s seem to linger on RM for months. I can tell you my local area, prices are slowly coming down and it’s all just ground to a halt. It seems to have become much worse since it’s become clear rates aren’t going to move anytime soon. I think it’s gone from a potentially good time to buy, inflation adjusted they started to look cheap with rate cuts in the horizon to oh shit I might be paying the bank 20k a year in interest indefinitely. 
 

I had a quick look at Daventry and filtered by 14 days (obvs longest possible) using your criteria. 40 listed, 3 stc. 

Never understand the appeal of this 14 day research method.

Average time on market is something like 60 days. 

So filtering by 14 days is very close to zero value, in research terms.

 

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HOLA4415
6 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

Never understand the appeal of this 14 day research method.

Average time on market is something like 60 days. 

So filtering by 14 days is very close to zero value, in research terms.

 

Agreed, it’s not particularly useful. But also using an unspecified random time (as far as I can tell) also has zero value in assessing the health of the market. 

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HOLA4418
4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

But I've just shown you data that a 340k detached house shows isn't average for Wellingborough?  Regardless of whether you think Wellingborough is a nice place or not (and I know it pretty well) the facts are that average house prices in Wellingborough are not miles away from what people on average Wellingborough salaries can afford.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/wellingborough.html

Properties in Wellingborough had an overall average price of £239,206 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Wellingborough during the last year were terraced properties, selling for an average price of £201,958. Semi-detached properties sold for an average of £242,692, with detached properties fetching £350,532.

Overall, sold prices in Wellingborough over the last year were 12% down on the previous year and 1% up on the 2021 peak of £236,774.

You're talking average price, Im talking average houses.

This is what average people live in you muppet, now what they pay.

Bin men used to buy houses like that to house their families.

Anyway, I've shown you trolls up for being the selfish one dimensional morons that only a estate agent could be, so my work here is done.

Bye

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HOLA4419
4 hours ago, scottbeard said:

But I've just shown you data that a 340k detached house shows isn't average for Wellingborough?  Regardless of whether you think Wellingborough is a nice place or not (and I know it pretty well) the facts are that average house prices in Wellingborough are not miles away from what people on average Wellingborough salaries can afford.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/wellingborough.html

Properties in Wellingborough had an overall average price of £239,206 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Wellingborough during the last year were terraced properties, selling for an average price of £201,958. Semi-detached properties sold for an average of £242,692, with detached properties fetching £350,532.

Overall, sold prices in Wellingborough over the last year were 12% down on the previous year and 1% up on the 2021 peak of £236,774.

Sure, but what people "can afford" and what people are willing to pay are two completely different things, sentiment has changed, people are not going to stretch to what they can afford at a push if house prices look to be falling, they will wait.

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HOLA4420
3 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Time for debtors face the reality that they are just poor. 

Our bent financial system needs more and more victims to keep it upright, so debtors are the cannon fodder who sacrifice their lives in order to borrow created out of thin air, worthless fiat......otherwise our corrupt debt based financial system falls over and dies.

A strange way to waste precious time on earth, but millions want it......

They are worse than poor, "poor" people in the past didn`t have any debt, they are slaves to a bank for many years, that is not a good place to be.

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HOLA4421
4 hours ago, Nick Cash said:

Given the various comments re Northamptonshire on this thread I thought I’d do a random Rightmove check for 1 town. Chose Daventry, houses not flats, 3 or 4 bedrooms. 
 

113 for sale. 244 either for sale or SSTC. So roughly half of the available stock receiving an acceptable offer (of course a percentage may collapse).

Seems a reasonably well functioning market to me. 

I posted something on this earlier and it seems to have gone.

I did the same search...look at the dates on the listings, here's 4 out of the first 5.

Image~

The agents have been leaving properties listed to make it look like they're doing well, I've seen previous threads on this.

I doubt half of them have sold

Property Lion is showing Northants current asking prices are down around 12% from 2022 peak and avialble listings are rising 5% a week, now at post covid highs.

Nick Cash, do some research before trying to troll someone.
 

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HOLA4422

You also conveniently omit how many of the properties listed ( sold and unsold ) have price drops and no upper chain.

Begs the question just who is selling these and who is buying them ( if someone is )

in 2019 these houses would struggle to get £250K when IRs were 1% but we're meant to believe there is a functioning market with people being hammered by the COLC to buy them with 5% rates.

If you'll believe that you'll believe commission based second hand house salesmen are salt of the earth.

Image

Anyway, enjoy the continuing crash it is quite something to behold.

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HOLA4423
4 hours ago, locky82 said:

I didn’t think that’s very effective research tbh. STC’s seem to linger on RM for months. I can tell you my local area, prices are slowly coming down and it’s all just ground to a halt. It seems to have become much worse since it’s become clear rates aren’t going to move anytime soon. I think it’s gone from a potentially good time to buy, inflation adjusted they started to look cheap with rate cuts in the horizon to oh shit I might be paying the bank 20k a year in interest indefinitely. 
 

I had a quick look at Daventry and filtered by 14 days (obvs longest possible) using your criteria. 40 listed, 3 stc. 

Why would you think 14 days is relevant in a slow market? If an offer has been accepted that is all that matters. The vendor has found a willing buyer. If the chain collapses that is not a reflection on the original agreed price. 
 

I was trying to find out for myself whether the Northamptonshire market was dead as some posters claimed. I concluded it wasn’t. That’s my opinion.

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HOLA4424
21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I posted something on this earlier and it seems to have gone.

I did the same search...look at the dates on the listings, here's 4 out of the first 5.

Image~

The agents have been leaving properties listed to make it look like they're doing well, I've seen previous threads on this.

I doubt half of them have sold

Property Lion is showing Northants current asking prices are down around 12% from 2022 peak and avialble listings are rising 5% a week, now at post covid highs.

Nick Cash, do some research before trying to troll someone.
 

I did 2 posts on this thread. One revealed I had a friend who was whingeing about mortgage rates and one where I did my own brief Rightmove search. Your response is ridiculously defensive and unnecessarily aggressive. Which suggests to me that you think you might be wrong.

 

If you can conclude that I’m a troll simply because I disagree then you shouldn’t post. You’re wasting your time and everyone else’s. 

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HOLA4425
9 hours ago, winkie said:

A friend of mine has three lodgers....all works out really well.....;)

Your friend is wrong.

Legally, you can have two lodgers in a single dwelling.

If you have three, then you have a House in Multiple Occupation (HMO).

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