'Inflation' Down To 3.9%??

[tabliski]

6 minutes ago, Quid Game said:

Inflation goes up haha stupid Bank of England, clueless, social justice leagues’ usual posts on the end of western civilisation and useless fiat borrowed by idiots. 
 

Inflation falling it’s all made up, doesn’t matter, indexes are all wrong, my personal basket of baked beans has gone up 28p in a month. 
 

Confirmation bias will stop many from making an informed decision. 

Inflation is still nearly double the BOE target. Food inflation is hovering around 9%. Inflation is falling but there is still some way to go and your average Joe continues to get poorer which will put pressure on wage demands. 

Too early to celebrate anything.

[scottbeard]

15 minutes ago, Quid Game said:

Inflation goes up haha stupid Bank of England, clueless, social justice leagues’ usual posts on the end of western civilisation and useless fiat borrowed by idiots. 
 

Inflation falling it’s all made up, doesn’t matter, indexes are all wrong, my personal basket of baked beans has gone up 28p in a month. 
 

Confirmation bias will stop many from making an informed decision. 

+1

[DownwardSlopingPlateau]

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

Looks like we're running at an annualised 2.4% deflation.

Food prices are up yet again in the last 12 months - by 9%. It's called inflation.

Hence the BoE continually refusing to take your advice. 😉

[tabliski]

32 minutes ago, Quid Game said:

Inflation goes up

Indeed. Rate of inflation but be more accurate.

[HovelinHove]

If I was looking to buy a house, I would be very nervous about waiting much longer. IRs will be going south in the New Year. Yes, the economy is sluggish, but holding out for big drops now is a very dangerous game in my view given how much salaries are still rising. You could be “locked out” forever.

[hotblack42]

Yes.  Actually inflation over the last 3 months is probably quite near the 2% target.  It was very high late 23 / early 22.  Maths innit?

A lot providers will have raised their prices despite not being under the same pressure as competitors.  Naughty providers. Quiet about these windfall profits, weren’t they?
They now have headroom & some will cut prices to maintain volumes.

However, inflation is a sod to get right down & will likely fluctuate on the way.  I’m pleased so far to see the BOE keeping rates above inflation & hope they will be remain very cautious throughout 2024, ideally for ever.

[TenYearToGetMyMoneyBack]

2 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

If I was looking to buy a house, I would be very nervous about waiting much longer. IRs will be going south in the New Year. Yes, the economy is sluggish, but holding out for big drops now is a very dangerous game in my view given how much salaries are still rising. You could be “locked out” forever.

My Father gave me very similar advice back in 1989. Look at the graph below my username to see how that worked out.

[hotblack42]

2 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

If I was looking to buy a house, I would be very nervous about waiting much longer. IRs will be going south in the New Year. Yes, the economy is sluggish, but holding out for big drops now is a very dangerous game in my view given how much salaries are still rising. You could be “locked out” forever.

Always a conundrum.  My advice would be buy 80% of what you could afford for a tidy place that needs updating (at a pace to suit you) but no serious issues, in a cooling or doldrums market.

Then move only when you actually need to & dismiss any desires for prestige etc.

Your late middle aged self with no mortgage, a solid pension & a year’s salary in savings & investments will thank you every single day.

[tabliski]

21 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

If I was looking to buy a house, I would be very nervous about waiting much longer. IRs will be going south in the New Year. Yes, the economy is sluggish, but holding out for big drops now is a very dangerous game in my view given how much salaries are still rising. You could be “locked out” forever.

One of the issues that are not really discussed on here is there is actually a fairly short time slot to pay off a mortgage, particularly if you have kids and want to plan some sort of retirement. 

If you have been through higher education and got a reasonable job then by the time you are earning enough for the second rung of the property ladder you will probably be in your early 30s (it's getting older all the time) so that's 35 years and there are university fees and nursery fees and all the rest in between.

Not everyone has a 10 year window to pontificate on HPC!

[Warlord]

DONT FORGET THIS phenomenon..

Shrinkflation in food etc. they've also re-formulated many foods with cheaper ingredients but they're charging more!

FOR EXAMPLE: I bought a chocolate bar the other day (Cadbury) and it tasted like sh1te.  They have possibly changed its formula or something. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Warlord

[Dweller]

3 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Does anyone actually believe this?

There is either something wrong with the 'official' figures our someone's outright lying imo.

And if 3.9% is the case, than average pay increases of 7% are going to fuel it's rise again.

The junior doctors are looking for 10%+, I think?

 

Then there is the border finally  going around the whole of the UK in the New Year which has been delayed 5 times (is it?) because it will fuel inflation 

[Social Justice League]

I'm not seeing inflation running at 3.9% in December 2023.  It's way higher so imo, this figure is pure fantasy lies.

All those workers who want 10%+ pay rises can see the real story too.  The situation is kind of embarrassing for everyone involved with this christmas charade.

 

 

[Hullabaloo82]

1 hour ago, Pebbles said:

There is some serious egg on face for those saying inflation would run high. Anything yo justify higher interest rates for longer. I fully expect the fed and boe to start cutting rates next year then and we all know how the housing market reacts to this. Even today I saw 3 houses sell this week in my small village.

Houses are selling near me again too, seeing mortgage lenders trying to drum up business with reduced rates again too. Early next year is probably the time to buy before rates get cut again and prices start to boom once more as cheap mortgages are back in vogue. 

[Warlord]

10 minutes ago, Hullabaloo82 said:

Houses are selling near me again too, seeing mortgage lenders trying to drum up business with reduced rates again too. Early next year is probably the time to buy before rates get cut again and prices start to boom once more as cheap mortgages are back in vogue. 

YES! It's truly magical! Government's can print money without consequence or inflation!  Amazing isn't it !

Boom time!

[TheResponsibleHouseBuyer]

HPC Cancelled.

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, hotblack42 said:

Always a conundrum.  My advice would be buy 80% of what you could afford for a tidy place that needs updating (at a pace to suit you) but no serious issues, in a cooling or doldrums market.

Then move only when you actually need to & dismiss any desires for prestige etc.

Your late middle aged self with no mortgage, a solid pension & a year’s salary in savings & investments will thank you every single day.

Sound advice...

Only issue is that around here you get more value for money over a million than at 400k

The real shortage around here is in meh family homes 130m2 - 200m2

Those that are for sale can be the samish but 475 - 600k with no link between the price and the square ft/m.

They actually sell for much less but there is no motivation at present.  Whilst they list and do not accept reality their estate house which is worth 350 .... can be 450 in their minds or that 450 one 600k and they are rich.

I will say it the actual selling price at this moment is high but doable.  What is holding things up is the multitude of listings that are living in 22 

 

[Stewy]

18 minutes ago, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said:

HPC Cancelled.

How many times is that now.

The Plateau was there to be had. 

[mynamehere]

Swap down to 3.7% which is lower than pre truss.

Personally I'm happy inflation is falling.

I'd much rather have low inflation a modest correction to nominal prices. Than high inflation and the comfort blanket of a real terms crash.

 

[Stewy]

1 minute ago, mynamehere said:

Swap down to 3.7% which is lower than pre truss.

Personally I'm happy inflation is falling.

I'd much rather have low inflation a modest correction to nominal prices. Than high inflation and the comfort blanket of a real terms crash.

 

Low inflation and high wage rises is Goldilocks for mad house price gains. 

[Social Justice League]

2024 is going to see a depression here, the US and Europe.  All western nations who print worthless fiat are going to fold along with feckless debtors serfs.

It's all there to see.

 

[winkie]

1 hour ago, Warlord said:

DONT FORGET THIS phenomenon..

Shrinkflation in food etc. they've also re-formulated many foods with cheaper ingredients but they're charging more!

FOR EXAMPLE: I bought a chocolate bar the other day (Cadbury) and it tasted like sh1te.  They have possibly changed its formula or something. 

Cadbury milk chocolate has three different formulas......none are the same as the chocolate was before Kraft bought it and moved production to Poland.

[tabliski]

2 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

2024 is going to see a depression here, the US and Europe.  All western nations who print worthless fiat are going to fold along with feckless debtors serfs.

It's all there to see.

 

Have you considered the alternative that Fiat isn't worthless but it is just worth less. Two plus decades of virtually free debt has allowed the rich to get exceedingly rich, the older middle classes to grab assets and keep a toe hold on their social position. Meanwhile wages have remained largely stagnant and the poor are getting left further behind.

There may be a massive correction or we may just revert back to days when social mobility was far more restricted and social division was far greater.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

The actual index has been falling since August. We are currently in a deflationary economy.

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, Stewy said:

Low inflation and high wage rises is Goldilocks for mad house price gains. 

You live in your utopia land......high wage rises fuel inflation, what is good about a place where those that can will and those that can't will not because they can't.

[mynamehere]

9 minutes ago, Stewy said:

Low inflation and high wage rises is Goldilocks for mad house price gains. 

Real wages are already on the turn. So assuming it platues, we are looking at something like 3% wage growth in 2024.

Interest rates will still be wrong side of 4% through this period, so on balance I'd say this is (slight) downward pressure on nominal prices. 

Not crash levels, but enough to keep things from launching