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Hullabaloo82

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Everything posted by Hullabaloo82

  1. Ever wondered if it's you/us that "don't know the value of money"? I think people have realised money is cheap so worry less about pouring it into other assets.
  2. Seem to hear this a lot, can I ask; are you actually in "corporate life" or are you just going off an Alan Sugar book you once read? I very much am in "corporate life" and I can only go off what I'm seeing day to day and that is the large blue chip employer with a big presence in the City I currently work for talking about downsizing office space, one day a week back in the office expected, absolutely no push for anyone to have yo be back in the office right now as the workforce skews younger. If we're doing it you can bet our competitors are too. Personally I think there's been a culture of fear amongst employees baked in since the gfc but people are just now starting to realise the balance of power has shifted. There's a massive skills shortage in my sector; as somebody in a senior capacity I could switch jobs tomorrow if I wanted (and fairly frequently do). Employers are understaffed and it's skilled workers that requires a knowledge of UK institutions where outsourcing options are limited. Chickens coming home to roost for employers after a decade of pay freezes, lack of investment in training and piling more work onto existing staff as people left or retired, all under the guise of "recovery" whilst profits bounced back long ago. All it takes is a good crisis to turn the tables
  3. Simple answer is they're not. It's principally older millennials or slightly older couples. The former are ex tenants buying for the first time, the latter are just about old enough to have bought a flat in London on the back of their first graduate job and have likely ridden the wave to completely or mostly mortgage free by now. London gaff goes on Airbnb or Foxtons to let and it's off up the coast. I think rumours of the backlash for moving further from the office are exaggerated. It seems baked in now, and most people will accept a 6 hour round trip (or even a night in London if they still have a place) once a week if they get to keep their London wage but live in the sticks. I suspect the rental market might not be as lucrative as many have hoped though.
  4. It all comes down to individualism vs collectivism but there's some fascinating contradictions on display. This forum, as ever, never fails to deliver some interesting case studies in mental gymnastics. We have the libertarian, conservative types on one side who also generally tend to support the metanarrative of nationalism and shared values whilst the more left or centre leaning liberal group is generally more skeptical of that particular metanarrative but is willing to roll up its sleeve and have the jab as part of a collective effort to control the virus. All very odd.
  5. HB/UC whatever you want to call it. Amounts to the same thing; state support to subsidise landlords.
  6. I am of the bean counting persuasion myself so have run the numbers on letting our existing gaff and the truth is, despite section 24, it's more than manageable. Not going to make big bucks but, as I say, it will wash its face and cover maintenance etc whilst allowing me go use dome of the theoretical price to move on. I think this is ultimately why we never saw the armageddon for BTLers that many expected/hoped for; overall valuations barely faltered meaning most can still just about get away with it and see a house as a sensible place to park their money still, even if it's not really achieving anything other than (theoretical) capital gain.
  7. Mine's currently on the market. Getting a lot of interest but it all seems to be "secondary market" interest from boomers in (insert name of trendy towns nearby) who've sold up to people fleeing London. The reality is this house is lovely but (insert name of early stages of gentrification town i live in) isn't posh enough to attract those people yet so nobody seems to be buying. To be honest, it's a house for a young family from the area not retirees. There is a young couple in the neighbourhood we know who would love to buy this place but can't get anywhere near our asking price (which is quite reasonable tbh, this isn't a "hot spot" though it's nearby several) which puts us in the position of then not being able to afford to move to where we want (either a much bigger place round here or moving back to one if the aforementioned trendy towns we were priced out of a few years back but a couple of promotions, an expected hefty 2021 white collar pay increase and a good amount of equity theoretically in this house puts us back in contention). The funny thing is, with the equity my mortgage company believes I have in this house (I remortgaged shortly after lockdown 1 at a bit less than what it's on the market for; Bank would only do it with a survey, but it sailed through far easier than any other formal valuation I've ever had) I vould very easily just let to buy. Even with the SDLT and penalty for repaying my fixy early (which I could maybe even port to the new gaff anyway) I'd still comparatively only end up borrowing a comparatively low amount extra to replace what we'd lose out of the deposit. This place would more than wash its face on the rental market. One over the road flew off to a young family; 4 figure sum a month but HB makes up the difference in rental world. Suspect our young friends might have it off us to be honest. It's ******ed but I can see why people end up doing the 2nd stepper landlord thing. I'm literally having people traipse round my house 2 or 3 times a week and having to keep the place pristine with 2 kids in the house when I know I could just call the mortgage broker tomorrow and we're away. The only thing that's stopped me doing it is I fundamentally don't believe it's right. I'm still hoping for that young couple from the area to come through the floor and say "this is us" and I've already dropped the price once but that's an increasingly hard sell to my wife who doesn't give a shit about my moral bellyaching over house prices and just wants to find a place we can finally settle and if landlord's is how we do that then so be it. I'd be interested to know how much this dynamic is playing out in other less trendy areas of the country. All that's going to happen is those bargainhunting cash rich boomers will just drive up the price of property in said hotspots again when they realise they simply can't be more than 5 minutes drive from waitrose, empty nest or no, leaving a layer of younger homeowners trying to get to that second (fourth actually for me) step but for whom they only way they can achieve that is leveraging their existing assets theoretical value, not realising its actual value. Effectively means that anyone who isn't bringing London or BOMAD cash is even more shit out of luck than before. Nobody's building here either; not besrky lucrative enough for the developers who would rather plonk another identikit estate next to the roundabout with the obligatory Greggs, Starbucks and a Sainsburys Local in every corner of my honetown because that jeeps selling even though they are literally destroying the place because the small c conservative mindset of the "plurality" that buys houses just still can't see past a brand name, which ultimately is all these nice towns are becoming. It's ******ed basically. We are nowhere closer to resolving these issues at all. Genuinely despair for the future of my two young children tbh. Generic grad scheme and poky one bed flat in London awaits fir them i think unless I contribute further to this mess by hording property myself. Total mess.
  8. You need to use your initiative a bit. Too late now anyway given we're apparently into shortage mode.
  9. I don't think this is right. According to nhs England the vaccine must be used as soon as delivered, not stored; https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/12/C01009-COVID-19-Vaccine-Oxford-AstraZeneca-movement-vaccine-7-January-2021.pdf This is why they've basically been grabbing people off the street to use it up and it's working too. Best part of 30 million had their first jab now.
  10. Fellow queue jumper here. Pretty awesome tbh. In fairness, I was actively encouraged to do so by staff at the vaccination centre where my wife (mid 30s, underlying health condition) was being jabbed. They told me they were significantly under capacity at a local centre, told me what to say when booking/attending and told me to go ahead and book. They were spot on too. Had the pick of appointments when I looked, could have gone the same day if not so shirt notice for work but ended up a day later. Staff just seemed to want to get as many as possible done regardless of who you are (which makes sense in my view). This was last month. Most people I know (including some in their 20s) in this area have been jabbed. Maybe it's regional but the stories of a shortage don't seem to mesh with what's happening here.
  11. This is what I did before the crisis and it's what I want to go back to after. I know very few people that genuinely want 100% wfh. I would support them if they did want it though and could make it work. It's easy to cry foul over this but in truth it's not going to be as simple as "yay! No more commuting forever". UK puts a lot of the burden of paying for its rail network on commuters. What do we do when there are none? Probably hike prices, raise taxes and slash services so you might not have to take the train into work any more but you pay peak prices and have far less choice of services when you want a boozy night out in town and your taxes are subsidising rail services in deepest darkest Wales barely anyone uses but which are keeping places alive. Lots of bellyaching about town and city centres; I'd love to believe more housing is the obvious answer but all the evidence points to converting office and retail space being a recipe for slum disasters. It's basically entrenching the k shaped recovery or two tier society isn't it? Boom time for the little chocolate box market towns and villages full of white collar professionals spending their new free time and disposable cash down at the artisan bakery whilst, out of sight and out of mind, provincial centres become godforsaken slums. We need some genuine out of the box thinking on this. What I'd like to see is access to co working spaces becoming a part of remuneration packages and a corresponding boom in them in increasingly defunct high streets do if you don't fancy wfh but can't be arsed with the long commute you can still get that office environment. Great way to meet new people (socially as well as for business), and may keep a few complimentary businesses (pubs, coffee shops etc) alive too plus stops town and city centres becoming desolate wastelands.
  12. If you want to "escape to the country" you need a small town that's close enough to the countryside to enjoy it but still has some actual amenities. I'm from what most of my London and other city based colleagues think of as the sticks, I do love the area and the countryside but I'm still not actually stupid enough to move somewhere that doesn't have shops, pubs and a train station in walking distance (and pay through the nose for the privilege), although I have moved out of my home town now to somewhere smaller. If you move straight from "London" (is Kingston on Thames really London?) to the actual countryside without understanding you'll be driving everywhere and no, it's not like an HE Bates novel, you're a ******ing moron who deserves everything they get. Had to lol at the hand wringing over the lack of good private schools in the area. Just every day problems eh?
  13. Don't forget freezing tax free allowance and higher rate thresholds too. Tories love a good stealth tax and people fall for it every single time.
  14. I think we've discussed this before on here; how many of the newly unemployed were candidates for a house purchase anyway? Professionals will probably have picked up a tidy redundancy package, a bit of remote contracting and then getting themselves a new job in the summer when the reopening really gets going. If you worked at Sports Direct, tragic to lose a job but the only difference to the property market is the proportion of your rents that's paid by HB/UC. Unemployment is now looking really unlikely yo hit the apocalyptic levels previously predicted and almost certainly won't trouble the market sectors that are actually making purchases.
  15. OK, so there's pent up supply but, logically, doesn't the same apply to demand? Headline housebreaking figures that get breathlessly quoted by industry shills are largely based on notionsl asking prices that are designed to be a unpalatable ask yo ensure a negotiation ends up closer to what the vendor will really sell for. Given the market has basically ground to a halt I don't believe there's any way of knowing what the real market is like. Strikes me the market right now is people who have to sell for some reason dealing with people who think they're getting a good deal due to the stamp duty holiday. I think most "regular" people are just battoning down the hatches until things get back to normal and will accept stamp duty if they have to because, as we all know "you can't lose on bricks and mortar." Furlough, payment holidays cladding issues, HK investors etc; how much demand or supply are these holding back? With a reported 50% of firms looking to hire this year and the vaccination program going better than expected, I wouldn't bet against a real terms bounce in the coming year to be honest. We know sentiment is a huge factor; if bojo can somehow come put smelling of roses it might be a longer term bounce. Better hope England doesn't get to host the euros......
  16. Yes, it's a well known fact that no one has ever lost Bitcoin following a hack or similar event.
  17. Unpack this; how does it make more sense to enter into a trade arrangement with a disparate group of countries with a combined population less than Germany, all of which are hours away by plane, than with our near neighbours, sn enormous trafing bloc of several hundred million people, much of which is culturally aligned to the UK and which we can drive or jump on a train to? I'm going to take some convincing here, to be honest.
  18. What? Fancy foods like cheese, milk, vegetables? Best case scenario is there might be a surplus of lamb (which is fine by me, be nice to see the price come down) but my one year old needs milk.
  19. If there isn't a deal or extension in a matter of days, it's going to be a bumpy ride for a few months at least. Sure, we might get to a point where it's "fine" eventually but at what cost and to what end? As a dad to two young children I don't want "fine" anyway. I want "excellent", "prosperous". We're ditching that for...... what exactly? Seriously, what even is the point of all this anymore? Genuine question; what are you hoping to get out of all this? How will it benefit us?
  20. What a surprise. Trump guy is also a brexiter. Must be something about naive sheep. All you people ever had in the beginning was wishful thinking and it's still all you've got 4.5 years later. Really hope you enjoy whatever vague nonsense it is you hope to get out of all this, because noone else will.
  21. I'm actually less bothered by the 8% lower GDP in ten years time than I am the short term disruption. Don't get me wrong; there's precious little GDP growth going on as it is so I presume 8% is going to mean basically no progress at allbut then what's new? There's been ****** all progress the last ten years as it is, what's another lost decade? It's the "short term disruption" that's been completely overlooked as a minor detail that's really going to mess us up. Potentially months of on/off food shortages, extended youth unemployment, recriminations, blame, loss of prestige on the wotld stage. This is going to scar the psyche of this country for decades and leave us tying ourselves up in knots over some pointless red/blue, left/right culture war just like our pals over the pond. Total ******ing waste of time. Just hope it was worth it for the minority of cranks who are excited about "sovereignty" (whatever the ****** that means).
  22. None of the Trumpets here or elsewhere really believe this ********. It's all about feeding the victim complex and having somebody else to blame for your inadequacies. The real fallout would have come if Trump actually had won.
  23. Wrong again, sadly. Most DB schemes (and certainly the public sector ones) allow you to nominate dependents who will receive a grant and, in some cases, an annual pension after you die. And no, of course I'm not suggesting "taxing the government" (I'm not arguing for this wealth tax in the first place, just pointing out how it could be applied to those with defined benefit entitlements) but that money will have to come from somewhere and that will either be in the form of liquidating or transferring assets from the funded schemes or in the case of the unfunded ones either the scheme administrator will have to pay or, most likely, you'll get a notional transfer which is offset by a reduction in top up grant in future (so basically a reduced pension). This is where you'll get court cases on age discrimination and, based on the current precedent (look up the recent cases on transitional arrangements in firefighters scheme and the knock on impact on the rest of the public sector schemes) the government will lose which either kills the whole thing dead or kills the government dead if it chooses to take 15% of people's wealth but leaves some pensioners untouched. The whole thing is a non starter for that reason. Besides, how do you actually collect a tax of 15% of the net equity in someone's house, anyway? Most won't conveniently have that in cash lying around and if you did try to force everyone in the country to sell their house at the same time you'd suddenly find a lot less wealth to tax. It effectively becomes a charge on property situation which then gives the lobbyists and tax accountants a decade or two to come up with a raft of loopholes or strongarm a friendly politician or two into reversing it. On the other hand, the government would immediately be able to seize 15% of the cash in everyone's bank accounts and 15% of your sgares to drip feed back into the markets over time to start paying down the debt. You'd literally wind up in a scenario where the mythical hpc hate figure, the ex public sector worker with a nice db pension and a few btls, walks off scott free whilst all the savers get stung while house prives stat exactly where they are. Not a very hpc friendly policy.
  24. This is wrong. "Unfunded" refers to how the deficit/surplus is managed. In a typical DB scheme, excess contributions (should there be any) are invested against future obligations. In an unfunded scheme, such as several of the public sector ones, the excess is either returned to the exchecquer or, as is now the case, shortfall to meet benefits payable is made up by a grant. The term has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not an accrued benefit entitlement in a DB scheme counts as wealth, which it obviously does; it's a receivable and therefore an asset on the personal balance sheet of the scheme member. Excluding this from any proposed wealth tax would be grossly unfair. Easy to collect on too, as schemes will either hold billions in assets themselves or are backed by the government so it's an easy case of collecting cash from the scheme and recouping from the member over time. Valuing their entitlement though, that's another matter and doubtlessly there would be numerous individual cases where people lose out or win big and probably no end of cout cases too (and if it turns out anything like the recent attempt by hmg to rrduce entitlements it'll probably derail the whole thing anyway).
  25. I don't think you've understood what "unfunded" means on the contextof public sector pensions (or how would calculate a value for those obligations). Look up "Cash Equivalent Transfer Value (CETV)" It's not unusual for individuals to have their pension valued at 2 or 3 mil with a few years in at a decent salary.
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