Halifax House Price Index June '23 (released July 7th)

[zugzwang]

Just now, Burbujista said:

Seasonality is only used when it benefits you, right? If the spring bounce is +1.5%... get ready for what is coming next...

DrivelinHove still here? Another True Blue wanquer hoping for a miracle.

[HovelinHove]

10 minutes ago, Stewy said:

The clustering around the 0.0% line clearly shows the Plateau with month-on-month induces range-bound. 

 

That’s the honest assessment. It won’t be long before YoY plateaus too. This is not a falling trend with the odd positive blip, this is a stagnating trend. This does not feel like the 90s crash, or even the less dramatic 2008-2011 drop. There is so little slack in the system in terms of supply that unless we have the mother of all recessions, this trend will continue for a year or so before prices take off again unless there are radical events/reform.

Edited July 7, 2023 by HovelinHove

[the stig]

5 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

This is not a falling trend

eh? The YoY is -ve. That in itself is a trend.

MoM is hugely variable. Just go back and look at the MoM figures during some boom years - there are some -ve months in there.

I'm happy enough with 0% MoM. In fact, if house prices did that forever i think that'd be a good thing for everyone.

[spyguy]

17 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

Not trolling (hated that when I was renting and living here), but just pointing out that the market is stagnant in nominal terms, albeit falling in real terms (like cash). Due to mass immigration, constrained supply (likely to get worse due to builders delaying projects because of the headlines), rising wages, and lots of forbearance by banks, I sincerely doubt we will see an epic crash. Maybe another 5-10% if we have a deep recession, but given the fact that prices haven’t really fallen at all this year, and have in fact risen a bit, if I was renting, I would be looking at trying to snaffle a bargain now from a buy to let person selling up…otherwise the boat may sail again in a year or so time.

 

’”Despite June’s dip, average house prices are actually up by +1.5% (or £4,000) so far this year.”

Mass immigration wont help.

Its mass benefit claims not mass high paid workers.

 

[fellow]

5 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

That’s the honest assessment. It won’t be long before YoY plateaus too. This is not a falling trend with the odd positive blip, this is a stagnating trend. This does not feel like the 90s crash, or even the less dramatic 2008-2011 drop. There is so little slack in the system in terms of supply that unless we have the mother of all recessions, this trend will continue for a year or so before prices take off again unless there are radical events/reform.

Affordability has just plummeted in the last month due to massive rises in mortgage rates. This will not be reflected in this month's data. We are also in peak buying season when prices nearly always go up so stagnant at this time of year suggests a falling market. The number of listing are also continuing to rise rapidly while demand is continuing to fall.

[Blobsy]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/07/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-annual-rate-since-2011-says-halifax-mortgage-rates?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Night Tripper]

11 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Mass immigration wont help.

Its mass benefit claims not mass high paid workers.

 

they cause housing pressure, which leads to increased rents at a minimum as the paid workers fight over whatever is left after the migrants have been housed.

[24gray24]

The BTL edging towards the exits , and the cladding and ground rent rush for the exits has already started, but it won't show up for 4 months.

The only reason new build prices have held up is because they are registering houses that exchanged months ago. Developers exchange 6 months before they finish building. 

[Timm]

New build:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/137007293#/?channel=RES_NEW

Quote

*STAMP DUTY PAID*

 

[the stig]

3 minutes ago, Timm said:

New build:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/137007293#/?channel=RES_NEW

 

£775k!?

Is that for all 10?

[rantnrave]

39 minutes ago, HovelinHove said:

That’s the honest assessment. It won’t be long before YoY plateaus too. This is not a falling trend with the odd positive blip, this is a stagnating trend. This does not feel like the 90s crash, or even the less dramatic 2008-2011 drop. There is so little slack in the system in terms of supply that unless we have the mother of all recessions, this trend will continue for a year or so before prices take off again unless there are radical events/reform.

There is a lag in this data - this update from Halifax will be for mortgages agreed on average about seven weeks ago - ie before much of the recent mortgage rate rises has filtered through.

Your analysis therefore accurately captures the state of the housing market at around the time of the King's coronation.

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

A decline in the rate of appreciation is not a decline in price. Poor chart for your point.

+/- 0.1% is just noise.

-2.6% is very definitely a decline in price 

[Timm]

3 minutes ago, the stig said:

£775k!?

Is that for all 10?

The point is, that if the builder is paying the stamp duty - that is a significant discount.

A discount that also boosts the buyer's deposit.

And thus their buying power.

[BaldED]

1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

The most amazing crash in history 

“Despite June’s dip, average house prices are actually up by +1.5% (or £4,000) so far this year.”

Hi my name is Balded I have not seen you on this forum before. Admittedly I dont come here as much anymore. I assume you are yet another alt account of several who appear now and again. So hi. And off you go to ignore.

[Timm]

I note that the May MoM of 0.0% has been revised to -0.2%.

[zugzwang]

3 minutes ago, Timm said:

I note that the May MoM of 0.0% has been revised to -0.2%.

The old retrospective adjustment trick. Funny how the smoothing algorithm always over-estimates the current month, right?

[rantnrave]

23 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

-2.6% is very definitely a decline in price 

£8k off the average sold price - probably the best part of year's rent

[wighty]

So much overpriced crap that'll not get viewings let alone being sold. These will just be taken off the market just leaving the desperate and forced sales.

[rantnrave]

6 minutes ago, wighty said:

So much overpriced crap that'll not get viewings let alone being sold. These will just be taken off the market just leaving the desperate and forced sales.

Yep - of four houses I've been monitoring since Feb, two still haven't sold and the other two are 'unexpectedly back on the market'.

For giggles, I also check the one that's been on the market the longest, which two weeks ago finally had a price cut after 15 months

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, 70PC said:

"New build prices more resilient compared to existing homes"

New builds might be holding their prices but are they selling? From what I see on Rightmove, builders are not having an easy time finding buyers.  

Like many businesses they have gone from feast to famine so they are holding out for better..... until they may like the US start to drive the prices down.

I am not a snob but some of the new builds around here are so horrible and soulless they make the 90s bovis estates look like luxury homes.

Yes they could hold them or rent them whilst they await a "recovery" but property rots away without maintenance and tenants can damage a place also.

There have been reductions but not enough to tempt people without HTB in the main.

[nero120]

2 hours ago, 70PC said:

"New build prices more resilient compared to existing homes"

New builds might be holding their prices but are they selling? From what I see on Rightmove, builders are not having an easy time finding buyers.  

2 hours ago, FivePoundLatte said:

The new build stats annoy me. They've all stopped building near me, with no (future) building activity or new plots released in 2-3 months. Yes they might be seeing a tiny rise in price, but this is purely on a smaller than usual number of existing plots. The rest have been mothballed, it seems.

Maybe that's true of the wider market though - less sales volumes and mortgage approvals mean that the monthly figures are less reliable than they used to be?

They forgot to mention that the house builders are throwing in all the sweeteners they can muster in order to convince desperate buyers to part with their cash as they cannot under any circumstances drop the price!!

[Blobsy]

6 minutes ago, nero120 said:

They forgot to mention that the house builders are throwing in all the sweeteners they can muster in order to convince desperate buyers to part with their cash as they cannot under any circumstances drop the price!!

As I heard previously from somewhere, when it gets to them throwing in the free car then you know it's close to the end.

[70PC]

5 minutes ago, nero120 said:

They forgot to mention that the house builders are throwing in all the sweeteners they can muster in order to convince desperate buyers to part with their cash as they cannot under any circumstances drop the price!!

Yes! Shared ownership, upmarket kitchens, contributions to the deposit, cash back on purchase. Anything but drop the headline price. That said, I have seen a few cracks appear in the past few weeks.

[ChrisSussex]

1 hour ago, HovelinHove said:

That’s the honest assessment. It won’t be long before YoY plateaus too. This is not a falling trend with the odd positive blip, this is a stagnating trend. This does not feel like the 90s crash, or even the less dramatic 2008-2011 drop. There is so little slack in the system in terms of supply that unless we have the mother of all recessions, this trend will continue for a year or so before prices take off again unless there are radical events/reform.

 

House price crashes involve forced sales and repossessions. I would say it is extremely likely we are going to see this given the massive increase in interest rates and the massive levels of debt some people/businesses are walking about with. There is a massive feedback loop that is going to take place involving people spending less due to increased repayments on debt/mortgages leading to unemployment/business failure leading to tightening of credit and leading to falling asset prices and so on and on and on. Just dont hold your breath waiting these thing take time to filter through.

Edited July 7, 2023 by ChrisSussex

[Stewy]

2 hours ago, fellow said:

Affordability has just plummeted in the last month due to massive rises in mortgage rates. This will not be reflected in this month's data. We are also in peak buying season when prices nearly always go up so stagnant at this time of year suggests a falling market. The number of listing are also continuing to rise rapidly while demand is continuing to fall.

Sounds like strong Hopium to me.