Maghull Mike Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Don't worry, no recession Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, 17 Year Veteran said: So we believe this one, then? Haha it's a good point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomadd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 This thread is so depressing. Two full pages in and not a single reply from our resident EAs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Excellent. It should pick up pace now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 This is where the rubber hit the road..........rates going up, house prices down. If you are a BTLer your getting kicked in the ass by both, you might have been able that you not getting a return but house prices are going up so you could profit that way. Now it down/down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 54 minutes ago, fellow said: -6.1% from peak (August 2022 £273,751). The seasonal adjustments are now working in our favour. Indeed - 6% down already and as expected will soon settle into the "crash cruise speed" of 1-2% pm falls until finally settling some 20-40% below peak in a year or two's time. We have discussed seasonal adjustments a lot - and yes for the next 6 months they will act to make the falls appear bigger rather than smaller ... but really that's just statistical smoothing. If you actually buy a house you don't have a seasonal adjustment applied either way. The most important point is that actual, real house prices that people pay are coming down, and good news that is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, fellow said: Average price £257,122. -6.1% from peak (August 2022 £273,751). Non seasonally adjusted this is: -0.1% MoM -3.1% YoY (from £265,312 in March 22) The seasonal adjustments are now working in our favour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just so people dont get too excited Property Lion current asking price index, which has been a fantastic leading indicator is definitely showing a bounce, whether or not this continues is another matter but 2nd hand house salesmen seem confident enough to try and push prices back up. The next 3-6 months will be telling, if nothing sells then asking prices should end the year 20% from peak...we can only hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wighty Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 What was the average price in March 2020?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomadd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: The next 3-6 months will be telling, if nothing sells no one can get a huge mortgage then asking prices should end the year 20% from peak...we can only hope. FTFY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitmanfan Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Indeed - 6% down already and as expected will soon settle into the "crash cruise speed" of 1-2% pm falls until finally settling some 20-40% below peak in a year or two's time. We have discussed seasonal adjustments a lot - and yes for the next 6 months they will act to make the falls appear bigger rather than smaller ... but really that's just statistical smoothing. If you actually buy a house you don't have a seasonal adjustment applied either way. The most important point is that actual, real house prices that people pay are coming down, and good news that is. I really hope so! I bought in Dec2011 and apparently my home in the NW has increased from £130k to £210k 62%.... The job I was in back in 2011 paid 18k. Now it would pay about 21.5k about a 17% increase. It's not sustainable for working class people to pay those sorts of prices. My first 90% mortgage was 4.99% and it would probably be a little higher today too. More dodgy props are required to keep this market from crashing down. Hopefully a 50% crash occurs. I'm now on 35k and I would not want to move up the ladder at today's prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huggy Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, wighty said: What was the average price in March 2020?. 5% higher than August 2023? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 hours ago, rantnrave said: Another fall! YoY -3.1% Shocked at this tbh. Thought NW would revert towards HF but instead we got another fairly massive MoM fall. Very happy right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, fellow said: Average price £257,122. -6.1% from peak (August 2022 £273,751). Non seasonally adjusted this is: -0.1% MoM -3.1% YoY (from £265,312 in March 22) The seasonal adjustments are now working in our favour. Earnings up about 4% in that period too so average price is down 10% vs earnings since August. Large falls. Even if prices stay steady at 0% HPI over the rest of 2023 then we will soon be 15% down vs earnings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mynamehere Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Good news for Scotland buyers, firmly leading the pack with annual change now. some odd stuff going on the report though. First time I’ve seen this YoY quarterly change metric put forward. Given how fast prices rose in spring 2022 makes sense quarterly Yoy is less, but it seems purposely confusing to mix it all up. It is odd how detached Halifax from nationwide is. Halifax has the tighter correlation to ONS historically. generally nationwide is the one that snaps back to mean, so I wasn’t expecting this figure. The EA counter would be something like, the ratio of mortgage sales as a percentage of total sales has fallen, and therefore index likely overweights the lower end of the market which was also hit by help to by ending, with the upper end having more cash buyers and chains without exposure to likely to hold up for longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, fellow said: London changes propagate out to the rest of the UK over time. It looks to have already spread to the south east. Less to spend for people who "escape to the country" and leave London/South East. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 CRASHY CRASHY. (Uppercase for added effect) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
henry the king Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Just so people dont get too excited Property Lion current asking price index, which has been a fantastic leading indicator is definitely showing a bounce, whether or not this continues is another matter but 2nd hand house salesmen seem confident enough to try and push prices back up. The next 3-6 months will be telling, if nothing sells then asking prices should end the year 20% from peak...we can only hope. People can price houses higher all they like. If there is no demand (see: mortgage approvals) then sooner or later those prices will just be reduced. There will be peaks and troughs in the falls. It wont be all down all the time. And the good thing is to get a real terms correction in affordability all we need is for prices not to rise. +0% MoM is a huge win for HPCers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highcontrast Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Where are Team HPI4eva? Oh I know, crying into their cornflakes. Lolz. 😆 (Malicious laughing emoji for added effect, it's what team HPI4eva would want) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, highcontrast said: Where are Team HPI4eva? Oh I know, crying into their cornflakes. Lolz. 😆 (Malicious laughing emoji for added effect, it's what team HPI4eva would want) Expect our resident trolls to enter hibernation for about a week now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiley George Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 38 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Property Lion current asking price index, which has been a fantastic leading indicator is definitely showing a bounce, whether or not this continues is another matter but 2nd hand house salesmen seem confident enough to try and push prices back up. I suspect this is more to do with low volumes and EA's falling over themselves to over value and get an instruction. Seeing a lot of this now almost on a daily basis, houses that went on RM at Covid +20% are getting at least 10% reductions within a couple of weeks. Also, don't underestimate the amount of demand that Rishi's numb-headed SDLT holiday pulled forward, volumes are still impacted by this as well as all of the other head winds now in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Smiley George said: I suspect this is more to do with low volumes and EA's falling over themselves to over value and get an instruction. Seeing a lot of this now almost on a daily basis, houses that went on RM at Covid +20% are getting at least 10% reductions within a couple of weeks. Also, don't underestimate the amount of demand that Rishi's numb-headed SDLT holiday pulled forward, volumes are still impacted by this as well as all of the other head winds now in play. I suspect that too, we are seeing near record number of reductions whilst watching news tuff get listed and 2022+10% given the mortgage approval numbers it's safe to say nothing is selling so when the 2022+10% stuff starts reducing we will hopefully see some steep falls again. A lot of people following us on twitter now realise we're not talking sh*te. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stjames83 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, LetsBuild said: Imagine what it would be if they took zone 3 out… As much as I enjoy the running gag, I continue to see a very buoyant market near me. Any decent family homes selling fast. Not the crazy bidding wars of last year but plenty going over asking. My reading is, again, we have multiple markets that are increasingly disconnected. These price falls reflect the discounted BTL dross, not family homes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoHPCinTheUK Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stjames83 said: As much as I enjoy the running gag, I continue to see a very buoyant market near me. Any decent family homes selling fast. Not the crazy bidding wars of last year but plenty going over asking. My reading is, again, we have multiple markets that are increasingly disconnected. These price falls reflect the discounted BTL dross, not family homes. Is it zone 3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stjames83 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, NoHPCinTheUK said: Is it zone 3? Zone 3, north London family area. You can see my previous posts and data on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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