The Collapse of Russia. What happens next?

[Staffsknot]

Nope because under modern IHL it would constitute a disproportionate use and too many civilian casualties, such rules did not exist and were brought in post WW2 to prevent the scale and suffering of said conflict.

Do try and keep up

I realise as you are busy knocking one out at the thought of Russia being the big strong army and Vlad's moobs, but hopefully you can follow.

Just like the international community would be forced to act to remove the nuclear threat by conventional means and yes it can be done.

The Russians would likely remove Putin themselves as nuclear weapons use would put them and the whole country in harms way.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Staffsknot

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, Night Tripper said:

Hiroshima and Nagasaki

I'm sorry, are you using that as a parallel to justify modern day actions?

Why wouldn't it just be less stupid for Russia to leave? They have invaded illegally and pretty much the entire world is against them.

To suggest that now they have a legitimate use of nuclear weapons,  because of Horoshima and Nagasaki is braindead gibberish

[70PC]

39 minutes ago, Grayphil said:

I'm sorry, are you using that as a parallel to justify modern day actions?

Why wouldn't it just be less stupid for Russia to leave? They have invaded illegally and pretty much the entire world is against them.

To suggest that now they have a legitimate use of nuclear weapons,  because of Horoshima and Nagasaki is braindead gibberish

If Putin introduced burning at the stake, we know what the response from the local pro Russian lobby will be. Russia is in a dark place and the values of their people are being warped by the man at the top. 

[Flat Bear]

Will Russia run out of money within a few months at its current expenditure?

 

 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

I've sampled Joe Blogs for a while but the reports are never correctly weighted.
Just look at all his videos, there's an agenda (that's ok if honest), I'm sure he'll call something right eventually.

Good job he doesn't examine the UK economy.

You must be aware of such data:
Russia nation debt is ~$360bn, the UK's is ~$3260bn
Russia GDP growth ~2%, the UK's GDP is ~0%
Russia interest rate 7.5%, the UK's interest rate 4.5%
Russia inflation rate 2.5%, the UK's inflation rate is ~8%

Who's going broke?

 

Edited June 20, 2023 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
add detail

[Up the spout]

11 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

I've sampled Joe Blogs for a while but the reports are never correctly weighted.
Just look at all his videos, there's an agenda (that's ok if honest), I'm sure he'll call something right eventually.

Good job he doesn't examine the UK economy.

You must be aware of such data:
Russia nation debt is ~$360bn, the UK's is ~$3260bn
Russia GDP growth ~2%, the UK's GDP is ~0%
Russia interest rate 7.5%, the UK's interest rate 4.5%
Russia inflation rate 2.5%, the UK's inflation rate is ~8%

Who's going broke?

Russia/Gross domestic product - 1.779 trillion USD (2021)

United Kingdom/Gross domestic product - 3.131 trillion USD (2021)

 

[Night Tripper]

4 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

Will Russia run out of money within a few months at its current expenditure?

 

 

And Russia is being accused of spiting propaganda lol 

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

6 hours ago, Up the spout said:

Russia/Gross domestic product - 1.779 trillion USD (2021)

United Kingdom/Gross domestic product - 3.131 trillion USD (2021)

Yes that's right, ~2x and the points still hold.

 

 

[Up the spout]

28 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Yes that's right, ~2x and the points still hold.

 

Debt is manageable with that level of GDP, as reflected in lots of other western countries, so no they don't.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

I hope and think that is manageble whilst painful.
This just today: UK net debt passes 100% of GDP for first time since 1961
but you get what I mean about such vids predicting iminant economic doom etc.

[MerchantNavy]

4 hours ago, Up the spout said:

Debt is manageable with that level of GDP, as reflected in lots of other western countries, so no they don't.

Sorry but our government has no control of debt. At this rate, we'll end up talking about debt ceiling like the US

[Up the spout]

1 minute ago, MerchantNavy said:

Sorry but our government has no control of debt. At this rate, we'll end up talking about debt ceiling like the US

With a central bank able to print money and a very established environment of domestic and international banking and investing, the government has 100% control of the debt - in theory they could instruct the BoE to print a £10 trillion note and pay it all off. The deficit is another matter.

[Flat Bear]

17 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

I've sampled Joe Blogs for a while but the reports are never correctly weighted.
Just look at all his videos, there's an agenda (that's ok if honest), I'm sure he'll call something right eventually.

Good job he doesn't examine the UK economy.

You must be aware of such data:
Russia nation debt is ~$360bn, the UK's is ~$3260bn
Russia GDP growth ~2%, the UK's GDP is ~0%
Russia interest rate 7.5%, the UK's interest rate 4.5%
Russia inflation rate 2.5%, the UK's inflation rate is ~8%

Who's going broke?

 

It is difficult to find any source 100% unbiased, that is always true. 

But I take it you disagree and think that Russia will get into 2024 (if they don't get heavily defeated in Ukraine) without any major financial problems?

Looking at the situation as detached as I can I think Russia is under tremendous economic difficulties and I think it will be this that will eventually bring Putins Russia down.

This Joe Blogs believes that Russia will have problems within 3 to 6 months so not too long to see if he is correct or if you are correct.

I don't know how to set a reminder to recheck our posts but I promise to try and come back to it at Christmas time this year if I can remember.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Yes ok, I don't think we'll forget such an event happening.

Some put the figure on the conflict only costing Russia ~3% of GDP, which seems pretty efficient if true. The sanctions have been a joke, when most of the EU is purchasing re-badged Russian gas and oil via places like India and the middle east.

Being British, you expect Sky/BBC/Channel4 to be more objective about Covid/Vaccines/Lybia/Syria/Ukraine etc.. Sadly, they are just not reporting beyond the narratives or just remaining silent on so many topics. The truth twisting and memory holing of recent history is very disturbing.

[Flat Bear]

On 07/06/2023 at 22:09, Flat Bear said:

 

 

Well we are a few months on and things are moving at a pace.

That aside, we have more information about the situation in Russia itself and the beginnings of civil wars and desent throughout the whole of Russia.

So again the question what will become of the Russia we see today?

Looking at the regions to the west together with Ukraine, it could well be we will see many states being created out of the turmoil. Crimea will become a seperate state, if the people have anything to say about it, Belarus will move to the west politically once Russian influence has gone, Anew state around the Donetsk region could well be considered as well as a new state in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgarod regions of Russia. What will these new states look like? Where will their allegiances lie? Will other parts of Russia and the surround follow?

It was never a real possibility that Ukraine itself could "beat" Russia but this conflict could well be the reason that Russia breaks apart. The real reason will be from within as it has been with the demise of every powerful nation. The west won't help as the sanctions cripple the country. Maybe this was the wests plan all along?

 

On 12/06/2023 at 13:47, Flat Bear said:

He still is there or sort of is still there. He is reverting to more and more desperate measures and we are in very dangerous times.

3 months on from your post and the pressure on the Putin regime has increased to near breaking point.

There are more and more factions getting the courage to speak out against him and they are finding little or no recourse which will only enbolden all oppostions.

IF, when?, Putin is deposed I do not think there can be a smooth take over and Russia would likely fall into chaos. Suddenly we could see the Russian invasion go into reverse as power struggles and anarchy in the country takes hold. This would be a very dangerous time akin to the fall of the Soviet Union.

When I started this thread it made the assumption that Russia would collapse in many ways (the most likely outcome?) and I asked what would be the outcome and how would it affect us and the world.

Ironically Prigozhin could be the one that actually "saves" the Russia we see today.

Questions.

Why now to make a move? Because Russia is weakening very quickly and he wanted a Russia that would be worth having in one piece.

How deep is Prigozhin support? Deeper than I thought. He has stood up to Putin and Putin wants him dead but so far he is untouchable. He has been doing a lot of PR and building a persona. He understands the Russian hieacy and could well have support from many in power and possible alliances with other PMCs and other regional powers. But how much support he has is unknown.

What will he do? He realizes his days are numbered and his only option is to take control or have a part in a new regime. He is unlikely to march on Moscow and start a bloody battle as he realizes this coup has to be a bloodless one for Russians so he will take the high ground. Expect very strong retoric and possible ultimatums over the coming days weeks as he knows if he wins the PR war he wins Russia. Having your own news outlets is more important than having a battalion of infantry at this time.

He will try to make Putin an offer he cannot refuse and ideally take over with an "amicable" bloodless coup.

He is a bigger threat to the west than Putin and the west knows it. Although he would pull Russian troops out of Ukraine and rebuild international relations we will still have the Russia we see today with an even more ruthless leader.

[Flat Bear]

59 minutes ago, Flat Bear said:

 

When I started this thread it made the assumption that Russia would collapse in many ways (the most likely outcome?) and I asked what would be the outcome and how would it affect us and the world.

Ironically Prigozhin could be the one that actually "saves" the Russia we see today.

Questions.

Why now to make a move? Because Russia is weakening very quickly and he wanted a Russia that would be worth having in one piece.

How deep is Prigozhin support? Deeper than I thought. He has stood up to Putin and Putin wants him dead but so far he is untouchable. He has been doing a lot of PR and building a persona. He understands the Russian hieacy and could well have support from many in power and possible alliances with other PMCs and other regional powers. But how much support he has is unknown.

What will he do? He realizes his days are numbered and his only option is to take control or have a part in a new regime. He is unlikely to march on Moscow and start a bloody battle as he realizes this coup has to be a bloodless one for Russians so he will take the high ground. Expect very strong retoric and possible ultimatums over the coming days weeks as he knows if he wins the PR war he wins Russia. Having your own news outlets is more important than having a battalion of infantry at this time.

He will try to make Putin an offer he cannot refuse and ideally take over with an "amicable" bloodless coup.

He is a bigger threat to the west than Putin and the west knows it. Although he would pull Russian troops out of Ukraine and rebuild international relations we will still have the Russia we see today with an even more ruthless leader.

I have not been monitoring the Russian trolls on this site over the last day or two regarding the coup and Prigozhin.

They are in a very difficult position here as Prigozhin could well be their new master very soon. Expecting silence but will check out the responses so far.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Glad to see that you know these guys inside out, ambitions, motives and all.
The way you express their detailed thoughts is... well, pretty amazing.
Such insights, you figured all this out just by being WhatsApp buddies?

 

BTW, quoting your own posts is a bit of a red flag.
I know, I do it myself from time to time. lol.
 

[Flat Bear]

14 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

Glad to see that you know these guys inside out, ambitions, motives and all.
The way you express their detailed thoughts is... well, pretty amazing.
Such insights, you figured all this out just by being WhatsApp buddies?

 

BTW, quoting your own posts is a bit of a red flag.
I know, I do it myself from time to time. lol.
 

Just read through some of the known Russian troll replies.

Rollover, Merchant Navy, Night Tripper and Dark Horse.

Replies are very few and far between and very very carefully scripted. Looks like Tripper might have over stepped the mark and sort of critisizing Wagner but then realizing his mistake decided to talk about how he would like to see Ukraine nuked.

Dark Horse in radio silence..... apart from above which is clear gaslighting at its most obvious. "What do you know about our great leaders their thoughts and motivations" "you must leave that to us as we know them intimately".

No mate it don't work like that. We know your motivations. Deny, deny and deny. If that does not work deny again and blame the person asking the questions and make a personal slight at his understanding of the situation and him in any other way.

I quote my own posts because they are the most relavent. You may quote yours but that is because you are an idiot and a Russian Troll.

It should not be too long before advice arrives from Moscow and we will get the party line. Up till now we have had nothing from any of you, gaslighting aside.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

I got a family, been out in the sun having a party, as this forum is a bit of a hobby, not my life. I have a different view on this conflict and don't align with any side, no connection with Russia, Ukraine or the US, other than I am born in England (going back at least 10 centuries). I guess that makes me St. Georges pro EU Gammon.

Being an objective thinker and having a different point of view does not classify me as a troll, unless you are a fascist.

The conundrum: no side can properly lose or there will be nothing left in Europe to speak of. Why anyone would cheer on a side to 'win' militarily or otherwise in Ukraine is very short sighted, irresponsible and self destructive.
Still labeling me "an idiot and a Russian Troll." ?

As for the Wagner drama, I don't know, initially it looked like a psyOp diversion but a day later now seems more rudimentary than that.

 

[zugzwang]

On 21/06/2023 at 12:16, MerchantNavy said:

Sorry but our government has no control of debt. At this rate, we'll end up talking about debt ceiling like the US

Kabuki theatre. Coma Joe wanted another 20% for the war machine. He cut social services to pay for it. The debt ceiling is there to make it look like his hands are tied.

[Big Orange]

34 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

As for the Wagner drama, I don't know, initially it looked like a psyOp diversion but a day later now seems more rudimentary than that.

 

It's not a convoluted PsyOps, it's the first obvious symptoms of a Neo-Feudal Mafia state creaking apart and threating to cave in on itself.

[MerchantNavy]

18 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

Just read through some of the known Russian troll replies.

Rollover, Merchant Navy, Night Tripper and Dark Horse.

Replies are very few and far between and very very carefully scripted. Looks like Tripper might have over stepped the mark and sort of critisizing Wagner but then realizing his mistake decided to talk about how he would like to see Ukraine nuked.

Dark Horse in radio silence..... apart from above which is clear gaslighting at its most obvious. "What do you know about our great leaders their thoughts and motivations" "you must leave that to us as we know them intimately".

No mate it don't work like that. We know your motivations. Deny, deny and deny. If that does not work deny again and blame the person asking the questions and make a personal slight at his understanding of the situation and him in any other way.

I quote my own posts because they are the most relavent. You may quote yours but that is because you are an idiot and a Russian Troll.

It should not be too long before advice arrives from Moscow and we will get the party line. Up till now we have had nothing from any of you, gaslighting aside.

Can't you get it through your thick head? I don't care about either side.

[pig]

Rise of Russian Private Military Companies Foreshadows Upheaval to Come

https://japan-forward.com/rise-of-russian-private-military-companies-foreshadows-upheaval-to-come/

Quote

Russia's heavy military losses have led to a surge in private military companies. But this could result in a mafia-type power struggle in post-Putin Russia.

...

One of the reasons for the string of PMCs is that the Russian army's losses are so great that it cannot fill its ranks through standard recruitment.....

For Putin's regime, the losses suffered by these PMCs are of far less concern than those sustained by the regular army....

Another reason for this upsurge in PMCs is that the Russian elite class is preparing for a "post-Putin" scenario. ...: "A fierce mafia-type struggle for power and interests will follow defeat in Ukraine and Putin's inevitable exit. The elite class and oligarchs instinctively understand this and believe they should have a private army to protect themselves and their assets."

 

[Flat Bear]

4 hours ago, MerchantNavy said:

Can't you get it through your thick head? I don't care about either side.

Are you posting just for the salary? If you do not care but keep posting and following these threads then it has to be the only reason. Just doing your job.

Night Tripper has made it very clear he is a Putin supporter through and through. He has been making a lot of mistakes and giving away much of the Kremlins thoughts. He knows what is going on in the Kremlin before it has been made public, or more accurately, in the western press. He posts before he thinks and this is all very insightful. It is worrying that he has been talking about nuclear weapons being deployed in Ukraine and that the thoughts are there will, can not be, any reprisal. It lets us know how totally devoid of reality Putin actually is.

Who is Night Tripper? Where is he based? He is too emotional and makes too many fundamental mistakes to be a bot, but he does get information before it is available. Interesting.

[MarkG]

21 hours ago, Big Orange said:

It's not a convoluted PsyOps, it's the first obvious symptoms of a Neo-Feudal Mafia state creaking apart and threating to cave in on itself.

What a difference 21 hours makes.

Have you even seen the pictures from Rostov? Some local guy taking a selfie with Prigozhin, people taking pictures of their kids with Wagner soldiers, Wagner tank crews making 'heart' signs for the camera, Wagner tank with flowers in the muzzle of its gun, Wagner soldiers calmly lining up at the supermarket checkout to buy food and drink.

It would be the fakest and gayest coup ever if Wagner hadn't shot down some Russian aircraft along the way.

Many of the soldiers are also claiming they were told they were going to Belgorod to protect against Ukrainian attacks and didn't understand why they ended up in Rostov. Prigozhin had very little support even among his own men, and now he's allegedly being exiled to Africa where Wagner will presumably continue to operate as a PMC while the Russian branch is absorbed into the Russian forces.