CPI Due Wednesday 20/10/2021

[winkie]

On 20/10/2021 at 15:37, steve99 said:

If you are mega rich, inflation is low, (so long as you dont count house prices, but they they all own lots of houses anyway) if you are poor then it has been high for a number of years. Private rents being one of the worst issues and public transport has gone up by more than CPI for decades (where I used to live in London 14 years ago a weekly travel card was £28 now its £63 in a period of almost zero wage rises for many).  When rents and other compulsory essentials go up more than your wages or benefits (think of disabled people as much as anyone)  then there is less to spend on things that are not going up, like food and heating for eg. 

If you live in London in a paid for house.......CT is cheaper band for band in comparison to elsewhere, water is cheaper than other places, WiFi is cheaper, cable non existent in most places......fresh food is cheaper, transport is better and cheaper....no need to run a car......even the museum's are free.......the cheapest place to live with the best facilities and connections is London...... if you own your home.

[Freki]

Whether something will happen is an hypothetical way of speaking. Your "fix" is an oxymoron and a bit jarring 

[scottbeard]

16 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

Fixed it for you

You're still mis-reading what I wrote, because you still think I'm saying pressure WILL ease in 2022 and I'm not saying that.

Let me re-write it:

Quote

 

If businesses really are seeing very high inflation now (and they seem to be) then over the next 12 months this would be expected to flow to some extent into consumer prices as businesses put up their prices.

And of course into wages.  And then back into prices etc etc as the inflationary spiral can do.

But that also very much depends upon WHY there is inflation.  It could be the case that things like COVID have made obtaining supplies very tricky in 2021 and so in 2022 that pressure will ease - in which case the inflation will be transitory.  Alternatively, that may not be case, in which case it could be the start of an inflationary spiral.

 

 

[Flat Bear]

5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

You're still mis-reading what I wrote, because you still think I'm saying pressure WILL ease in 2022 and I'm not saying that.

Let me re-write it:

 

OK understand

In your view do you think prices will ease in 2022 and this inflation spike is transitory?

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, Flat Bear said:

In your view do you think prices will ease in 2022 and this inflation spike is transitory?

In my view, because the price rises are not being caused by one single thing but basically by a vast range of things (including, but not limited to: QE, COVID and Brexit) I suspect that some prices will stabilise and others won't.

However, in most cases I honestly don't know what the outcome will be: if we have shortages (and hence high prices) because of a shortage of lorry drivers will that get resolved in 2022 or not?  I have no idea. 

[Flat Bear]

16 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

In my view, because the price rises are not being caused by one single thing but basically by a vast range of things (including, but not limited to: QE, COVID and Brexit) I suspect that some prices will stabilise and others won't.

However, in most cases I honestly don't know what the outcome will be: if we have shortages (and hence high prices) because of a shortage of lorry drivers will that get resolved in 2022 or not?  I have no idea. 

Thank you

My view is this is not transitory, and we will see prices rising for at least several years even although I see a marked slowdown and possible recession occurring within 12-18 months.

[Up the spout]

For obvious reasons we usually cut out the volatile components of price changes when we talk about inflation. In the past that was simple enough – just remove food and oil to arrive at index numbers that should dictate economic policy. At this point in time a lot of other items have price volatility without any underlying reasons for expecting long-term price increases. In other words the indexes that used to be good for policy guidance are currently inflated and of little use. The only underlying general inflation push would come from increased wages. Some of that cost could be bleeding into prices and remain there (wages are sticky). However, the societal good of higher wages will by far exceed the minimal problems, from a slightly above target inflation rate.

[coypondboy]

CPI and RPI figures will be interesting when the price cap for gas and electricity rises as the latest graph shows heading back up to 300, just need Putin to invade Ukraine in January and then turn off the gas to europe at the coldest time of the year.

[Flat Bear]

Well

We have just had the latest US CPI figure that went up to 6.8% highest since 1982. This was "higher than expected"😵. Where have  heard this before? Apparantly inflation in the US can not longer be called "transitory".

The UK CPI figure that comes out next wedneday is predicted to be a modest rise to just 4.7%. I think they will throw the kitchen sink (especially if it cheaper than last year) at it to keep the figure below 5% so they can be vindicated at keeping the base rate where it is (around zero)

[dpg50000]

12 hours ago, Flat Bear said:

Well

We have just had the latest US CPI figure that went up to 6.8% highest since 1982. This was "higher than expected"😵. Where have  heard this before? Apparantly inflation in the US can not longer be called "transitory".

The UK CPI figure that comes out next wedneday is predicted to be a modest rise to just 4.7%. I think they will throw the kitchen sink (especially if it cheaper than last year) at it to keep the figure below 5% so they can be vindicated at keeping the base rate where it is (around zero)

Do the BOE still have to write a letter to the chancellor explaining why inflation is over target, or has that meaningless charade been dropped?

[Flat Bear]

7 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

Do the BOE still have to write a letter to the chancellor explaining why inflation is over target, or has that meaningless charade been dropped?

I don't actually know. I would guess that they just quietly dropped it.

[SE10]

9 hours ago, dpg50000 said:

Do the BOE still have to write a letter to the chancellor explaining why inflation is over target, or has that meaningless charade been dropped?

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets

[dpg50000]

1 hour ago, SE10 said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/inflationary-targets

Thanks!

[tep1]

Truth twisting headline inflation at peak

[scottbeard]

On 11/12/2021 at 14:41, Flat Bear said:

I don't actually know. I would guess that they just quietly dropped it.

Rather than just guessing, within the time it took to type that you could have googled to discover that this is wrong and they didn’t… 🙄

[Flat Bear]

19 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Rather than just guessing, within the time it took to type that you could have googled to discover that this is wrong and they didn’t… 🙄

So would the person who asked me.

It is, and always was a PR exersize.

Edited December 14, 2021 by Flat Bear

[Timm]

5.1%

[10 rillington place]

I'd like to be a fly on the wall at tomorrows  Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting! What excuse will the fraudsters come up with to keep interest rates at 0.5%?

[10 rillington place]

Sorry, 0.15%

[10 rillington place]

Or even 0.1%

[fellow]

18 minutes ago, 10 rillington place said:

I'd like to be a fly on the wall at tomorrows  Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting! What excuse will the fraudsters come up with to keep interest rates at 0.1%?

Omicron of course.

[10 rillington place]

4 minutes ago, fellow said:

Omicron of course.

You are right. I was so shocked about the inflation figures that I'd forgotton about Omicron!

[spyguy]

32 minutes ago, Timm said:

5.1%

Temporary.

See thru.

etc.

From ~1999 to ~2018ish, China exported disinflation.

From ~2019 China is experting inflation.

The great moderation was nothing more than a huge mercantilist country joining the WTO.

To quote a commodity trader rule of thumb - China takes half of everything.

 

 

[Timbuk3]

43 minutes ago, 10 rillington place said:

I'd like to be a fly on the wall at tomorrows  Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting! What excuse will the fraudsters come up with to keep interest rates at 0.5%?

I doubt they will raise until the Fed raise because they are puppets of the Fed.

[zugzwang]

Thursday 17 February 2011 by Malcolm Everall

Mervyn King ‘chased home in his PE kit’ by interest rate bullies

The mother of Bank of England governor Mervyn King was on the warpath last night after her son arrived home wearing only his plimsolls, vest and gym shorts, having been chased by senior economists demanding a sharp rise in the base lending rate.

And a furious Mrs King pledged reprisals on the ‘nasty great bullies’ of the City of London following reports that her son’s lunchbox was thrown onto the roof of the Bank’s changing rooms.

Clever Mervyn, 61, has been head boy of the United Kingdom’s central Bank for the last seven years, where he is described by fond staff as ‘an able, diligent boy,’ achieving grade four in the clarinet although unable to play football because of his asthma.

But at a noisy impromptu meeting of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee in the drama room on Monday lunchtime, it is understood that a number of ‘big boys’ impatient with the UK’s stubbornly high rate of inflation cornered King and threatened him with ‘an atomic wedgie’ unless he voted for an immediate quarter-point rise in interest rates.

“They was all crowding round Mervyn, and they was like ‘you better better put those rates up or we’re gonna do you’,” said one committee member, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“And Merv, he was all like ‘whatever’ and that but I could tell he was bricking his pants.”