No UK Gov covid Economic plan - Is there a mass homelessness or food crisis plan when Furlough ££ stops ?

[Blink]

27 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Simplistic, more like.

The economy doesn't have a set number of jobs and the young would soon be complaining about paying the taxes needed to support all those newly retired 60yr olds. 

Probably end up shrinking the economy and with more young people unemployed. 

Better to have an army of old people sitting in the park than an army of youths rioting in the streets.

Once jobs are freely available again, then increase the retirement age once more.

People need to get to grips with what mass unemployment actually means.

Retire at 60, or create a 4 day week, or remain in mandatory education until 18.

Perhaps you feel you'll be missing out in some way being younger than 60?

[Dreamcasting]

Listen up, UBI or whatever you want to call it isn't going to happen, regardless how many times certain people on this forum keep promoting and posting about it here.

What will happen is mass poverty and people living on the streets. Why pay someone £1k per month when they can live in a tent and visit a soup kitchen?

[spacedin]

20 minutes ago, Dreamcasting said:

Listen up, UBI or whatever you want to call it isn't going to happen, regardless how many times certain people on this forum keep promoting and posting about it here.

What will happen is mass poverty and people living on the streets. Why pay someone £1k per month when they can live in a tent and visit a soup kitchen?

Ruining peoples mental health can be expensive but they may die faster and have less impact on public services in the long run.

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, Blink said:

Better to have an army of old people sitting in the park than an army of youths rioting in the streets.

Once jobs are freely available again, then increase the retirement age once more.

People need to get to grips with what mass unemployment actually means.

Retire at 60, or create a 4 day week, or remain in mandatory education until 18.

Perhaps you feel you'll be missing out in some way being younger than 60?

I think your idea would end up with more unemployed young people. 

I am not worried about missing out as I plan to have been retired for a few years before I hit 60. I could go now but by staying on I will be contributing to the economy for a few more years.  

[Saving For a Space Ship]

15 hours ago, Wayward said:

Mass homelessness?  there will be the same number of homes?  Are we anticipating lots of empty homes?  Or increased immigration?

Maybe, unless you have homes demolished like in the last great depression (see film Grapes of Wrath)

 However, there may be lot of empty homes for various reasons : 

Due to BTL LL's going bust as their rent declines or their other job ceases after furlough which subsidised the BTL 

Credit Crunch 2 - lack of credit to survive through tough times

Banks may be insolvent for many reasons, so will not lend . Banks already say they often will not lend to those  who took bounce bank loans as they may be in financial difficulty

A big question for me,  as to a reduction in mass homelssness is whether banks will repossess and leave homes empty, with a risk of vandalism etc or let bankrupt ex home owners stay in the homes for years like unpaid caretakers as they did in the US in 2008+ 

 

14 hours ago, Dreamcasting said:

Listen up, UBI or whatever you want to call it isn't going to happen, regardless how many times certain people on this forum keep promoting and posting about it here.

What will happen is mass poverty and people living on the streets. Why pay someone £1k per month when they can live in a tent and visit a soup kitchen?

I don't think UBI will happen as there won't be the money available, unless theres more money printing / can kicking and then there will be no money later, it ject dealys the same effect. 

14 hours ago, spacedin said:

Ruining peoples mental health can be expensive but they may die faster and have less impact on public services in the long run.

In my job, I  have direct experience of seeing this in some HMO tenants in poor areas, who live on pot noodles, £1 pizzas & 65p ready meals, so they have more benefit money left for alcohol, fags or drugs.

It certainly shorten their lives drasitically, and there is little mental health support, locally or willingness for the tenant ot change by accessing free online help amongst the most severe cases.

The main problem IMO is that when the drink or drugs have done so much damage the tenant becomes extremely unreasonable & anti social so almost impossible to reason  with.

This then has  a domino effect on the mental health of other tenants in the HMO, who are too poor to move from the property  

Perhaps some future Ai led mentatl health program would help, as human labour for mental health support would cost too much . It would probably need a Chinese level of cctv / web use monitoring & food stamp card type control to have an effect .    

These problem tenants often remain housed in HMO's only becaucse the LL's are afraid of voids in their delapidated properties. These LL's have often been on the edge of bankruptcy for some years now.  

 

Interesting discussions , but no mention of a plan to deal with mass homelessness when furlough ends ? So my seach continues..

 

Tell Me When The Furlough's Ending ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxIjcfkSTVY

Edited July 31, 2020 by Saving For a Space Ship

[richmondtw]

23 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

As is paying them dole, housing benefit and council tax benefit for 40 years.

That does not often amount 1K a month for ever.

There are penalties and benefits are stopped if a person is not deemed to be seeking work who is capable of working.

22 hours ago, doomed said:

I say we just give all our money to the government to share out as they see fit and remove all decisions from the individual. Seems fair.

I agree let those of us who work just give it to the govt to give to the idle and useless. 

23 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Non jobs are the cause of all this, i.e jobs that are not needed in the first place.  Automation will take all the professional jobs at some point too.

People are still thinking about 'work'  in terms of the industial revolution of 1850.

There isn't going to be enough/any paid work to keep everyone "working".  Just give people the cash to consume or change the whole consumer capitalist system.

SJL I agree with you totally.

My business is involved in AI.

Fact is in life there are winners and losers. 

I and others do not work to pay for those who do not. I do not see how it is right that I and the people I work with work hard look after ourselves and our family but are also expected to look after the rest of the world  and look after them and their family while they sit at home in a betting shop of a wetherspoons. That is not fair to us. 

Fact is it is everyone's responsibility to make sure that they are the ones who can work and earn a good living.

The world is a fiercely competitive place and people need to understand that.  In any society there are those who are better of than others - always has been - always will be.  Some people are more intelligent than others, m,ore driven, more ambitious, more focused. 

23 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The Tory boys had ten years to fix the economy prior to the arrival of C-19. Thousands of lives were destroyed by austerity.

And still you voted for them!

So what does that make you?

And Labour had 14 years during the Blair Brown era - No more boom and bust  yea ok

Darling left a note to say the money had all gone.  

What does that make you? 

[Social Justice League]

15 hours ago, Dreamcasting said:

Listen up, UBI or whatever you want to call it isn't going to happen, regardless how many times certain people on this forum keep promoting and posting about it here.

What will happen is mass poverty and people living on the streets. Why pay someone £1k per month when they can live in a tent and visit a soup kitchen?

If millions of people can't work due to there not being enough paid employment, then the country can pay them dole, housing benefit and council tax benefit for 40 years followed by a state pension.  Sounds like a great deal for taxpayers.

[Social Justice League]

7 minutes ago, richmondtw said:

that does not often amount 1K a month for ever.

There are penalties and benefits are stopped if a person is not deemed to be seeking work who is capable of working.

True.  My point is that there won't be paid employment for millions of people going forward, so either pay then dole and loads of other benefits forever, or scrap the expensive benefits system all together and just give every one a monthy payment. 

Remember working people would get it too, but I know why many business owners/capitalists are resistant to the concept and it's all to do with power and who has it.  Business owners need desperate people, otherwise who would work for them?

Giving people 'choices' isn't what the leeches ever want.

Quite obvious, but that's daft human being for you.

[richmondtw]

3 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

True.  My point is that there won't be paid employment for millions of people going forward

 

Exactly - so we need to reduce population.  There are going to be limited jobs so a much smaller workforce is required.  I do not see why I should work to pay for anyone who is aware that the job market is going to be limited but has 2,3,4 or more kids.  I have never, ever asked anyone to pay for my kids and I see no reason I should pay for anyone else's.

 

We would loved to have had 6 kids but were aware that if we did so we would not be able to give them what we would want to be able to offer as parents.

My kids are my responsibility not anyone else’s. 

People need to re-train into skills that are needed.  

The point is I do not want to work to pay a load of tax to pay 1K a month to millions of people who did not bother to educate or train themselves to a level where they can be gainfully employed.

 

3 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

scrap the expensive benefits system all together and just give every one a monthy payment. 

That is dole just under another name and giving everyone 1K a months would be far more expensive than the current system . And it has to be paid for by taxpayers who work.  

It also gives people a huge sense of entitlement that they can be given money for nothing.  Psychological studies all say that work gives people a sense of identity and self respect which would be lost sitting at home playing PS4 or sitting in a betting shop.  

I would make all benefits dependent on people doing things such as sweep the streets, clean beaches, pick up litter, voluntary work in a hospice, clear rivers, etc which are often done by hard working volunteers.   

When I was a kid of I wanted money I had to do something for it.  Clean dishes, clean the car, hoover, cut the grass.  I was taught that if I want any single thing in this life I work for it.  

4 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Remember working people would get it too,

Working people would just pay more tax to get a benefit.  There is no such thing as free. 

Yes the huge amount of money in the system would cause inflation and do nothing at all to reduce houseprices.  Would make the UK uncompetitive.  

 

4 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Business owners need desperate people, otherwise who would work for them?

No one who works for me is desperate.  They are highly paid, I contribute more to their pension than I have to, they and their family get private healthcare, they can work from home of they want to.

They are by me, highly respected people whose opinions I respect and whose  company I enjoy at work and socially as we often to go the pub, meals theatre , spots etc.

It sounds as though you hate the job you do and that you have to work but many do not.

I have met good friends through working.  I have learned skills I would not have had sitting in wetherspoons.  It has increased my confidence, self belief, friendship network.

4 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

Giving people 'choices' isn't what the leeches ever want.

 

But people do have choices. If anyone who is employed wants more money, they are free to get a better paid job. Re-train. 

The leeches are worthless people with a sense of entitlement who want money for doing nothing given to them by hard working taxpayers. 

 

[Social Justice League]

1 hour ago, richmondtw said:

It sounds as though you hate the job you do and that you have to work but many do not.

lol, no I really don't.  I'm one of those "entitled" I.T guys.

And I take your points seriously rich.  What I don't really want to see is society completely breaking down and millions literally destitute, come the winter.

Edited July 31, 2020 by Social Justice League

[shlomo]

23 hours ago, MARTINX9 said:

 my father got a higher state pension from the Irish government for working 9 years there than he did for 30 years here on much higher wages!

It does beg the question, then why did he stay, must be reasons?

[Bear Goggles]

Lots of discussion about what people think should happen, I think the OP was more a question of what people think *will* happen when furlough is wound down. 

Predicting the future is hard, but I think the coming winter is going to be grim. Mass unemployment along with waves of Covid panic as the winter flu season rolls in, and then we’ve got The disruption of Brexit right in the middle of it. I mean, whatever you think of Brexit I think you’d have to be brave to believe there’ll be no short term disruption from distancing ourselves from our biggest trading partner. 

Government response is likely to be interventional and reactive, so I’d expect measures to curb evictions, things like food vouchers to curb hunger, and bailouts for travel and hospitality businesses In an attempt to reduce job losses. 

In the medium  term, there’ll be more public works schemes and other government backed Programmes, building bridges, fixing potholes, refurbishing community centres etc. The Tories need to keep those red wall seats happy in the run up to the next election. 

My feeling is that in the longer term we will be transitioning to a more planned economy. Brexit will speed this process as more decision making comes back to Westminster, the electorate demands action, and blaming EU regulation stops being an excuse for inaction. Demographics will play a part too, the older generation want to “take back control” and the younger generation are pretty socialist, more Government  intervention is about the only thing they’ll agree on.

But anything could happen, and there is no plan. 

[Greater Fool]

On 30/07/2020 at 17:45, Dreamcasting said:

Listen up, UBI or whatever you want to call it isn't going to happen, regardless how many times certain people on this forum keep promoting and posting about it here.

What will happen is mass poverty and people living on the streets. Why pay someone £1k per month when they can live in a tent and visit a soup kitchen?

Voters wouldn't stand for that situation. If there is mass poverty and people living on the streets assuming the Cons don't then the Labour party who are waiting in the wings would simply promise to print and tax the "rich" to infinity to rescue the country. How could there be another outcome?

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Thanks BG, 

I notice some Councils are doing public appeals for land & property for the homeless..

Quote

Appeal for property and land-owners across Worcestershire to help house the homeless

https://droitwichstandard.co.uk/news/appeal-for-property-and-land-owners-across-worcestershire-to-help-house-the-homeless-21544/

From the same article, it says "The Government has now made separate funds of £105million and £161million available to local authorities to bid for to find long-term solutions." (on top of the usual funding for the homeless I presume) which  is a drop in the ocean for the potential homeless numbers when furlough ends. 

Even if the Gov decided tomorrow to start build thousands of disaster shelters or divide up empty commercial properties with insulated panels for masses of the homeless, there would probably not be nearly enough due to 'just in time' manufacturing & slowness of Uk building. 

There are no massive warehouses full of such panels or tents held in reserve, though the military will have a few . 

I had an idea 3 yrs ago to try and resolve this issue: 

Draft proposal for Design of Insulated Panels installed as Shelter Wall Insulation, that can be Re-used as Shelters in the event of a Disaster Situation

http://cabinznet.blogspot.com/2017/09/draft-proposal-for-design-of-insulated.html

   

 

 

On 31/07/2020 at 17:37, Bear Goggles said:

Lots of discussion about what people think should happen, I think the OP was more a question of what people think *will* happen when furlough is wound down. 

Predicting the future is hard, but I think the coming winter is going to be grim. Mass unemployment along with waves of Covid panic as the winter flu season rolls in, and then we’ve got The disruption of Brexit right in the middle of it. I mean, whatever you think of Brexit I think you’d have to be brave to believe there’ll be no short term disruption from distancing ourselves from our biggest trading partner. 

Government response is likely to be interventional and reactive, so I’d expect measures to curb evictions, things like food vouchers to curb hunger, and bailouts for travel and hospitality businesses In an attempt to reduce job losses. 

In the medium  term, there’ll be more public works schemes and other government backed Programmes, building bridges, fixing potholes, refurbishing community centres etc. The Tories need to keep those red wall seats happy in the run up to the next election. 

My feeling is that in the longer term we will be transitioning to a more planned economy. Brexit will speed this process as more decision making comes back to Westminster, the electorate demands action, and blaming EU regulation stops being an excuse for inaction. Demographics will play a part too, the older generation want to “take back control” and the younger generation are pretty socialist, more Government  intervention is about the only thing they’ll agree on.

But anything could happen, and there is no plan. 

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by Saving For a Space Ship

[MarkG]

3 hours ago, Tiger131 said:

Voters wouldn't stand for that situation. If there is mass poverty and people living on the streets assuming the Cons don't then the Labour party who are waiting in the wings would simply promise to print and tax the "rich" to infinity to rescue the country. How could there be another outcome?

Yes. We've now entered the 'free shit until the collapse' phase of democracy.

The bread and circuses of UBI followed by the Terminators to remove all the 'useless eaters'.

Edited August 1, 2020 by MarkG

[Trump Invective]

Tax cuts

[MarkG]

On 30/07/2020 at 10:34, Blink said:

Better to have an army of old people sitting in the park than an army of youths rioting in the streets.

Old people with a grudge are a much bigger threat than rioting 'yoof'.

An open, high-tech society like the one we live in is incredibly vulnerable to sabotage by those who understand the weak points. It's not terribly vulnerable to 'yoof' running around smashing windows or burning down Starbucks.

Edited August 1, 2020 by MarkG

[reddog]

One minor issue with the suggestions for UBI, public works etc.

 

We now have a 100% debt to GDP, I think if we just start printing the short fall, the effects will become a lot more visible, much more quickly than say in the EU or USA.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Congress leaves town without a coronavirus stimulus deal, allowing $600 unemployment benefit to end

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/31/coronavirus-stimulus-trump-pelosi-cast-blame-unemployment-ends/5554365002/

The US is going into this first , so the one to watch for what might happen in Uk, but I would suspect it will get extended shortly.

Labour & others lobby for extension here, but no mention of mass homelessness or hunger just unemployment

Extend UK furlough subsidies to avoid mass job losses, Labour urges

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/01/extend-furlough-subsidies-or-suffer-mass-job-losses-uk-warned  

 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by Saving For a Space Ship

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Quote

The Mayor (of London) wrote to Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick accusing ministers of having “no robust plans” to prevent mass homelessness.

During the pandemic, landlords have not been allowed to evict tenants – but this protection will end on August 23, and with many renters building up arrears there are widespread fears that some will lose their homes.

There are now 2.7 million renters in the capital, according to research by property company CBRE – and a third of these households are families with children, the Mayor’s Office has said.

Mr Khan is now calling on ministers to extend the eviction protection until “the end of the pandemic” and introduce a triple-lock to stop renters becoming homeless.

The triple lock would mean:

Extending benefits to cover rent that tenants can’t pay because of the virus, including any arrears they’ve built up;

Banning Section 8 arrears notices, which can lead to court-ordered eviction,  if tenants have built up debt because of the virus;

And ending so-called no fault evictions – Section 21 orders, that allow landlords to end a tenancy with 2 months’ notice – so they cannot be used as an alternative to a Section 8.

In March, the Government banned evictions until 25 June – but ministers extended the measure to late August amid the ongoing pressures of the pandemic.

https://www.citymatters.london/mayor-wants-triple-lock-prevent-mass-tsunami-homelessness/

Khan the London mayor wrote to Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick accusing ministers of having “no robust plans” to prevent mass homelessness according to this article from July 13 2020.

In hindsight, I should have added the threat of the eviction ban being lifted in July / Aug 2020 as a cause of potential mass homelssness, as well as the furlough end    

also ...

30th july - Sadiq Khan: don’t reduce furlough scheme next month

https://www.citymatters.london/sadiq-khan-dont-reduce-furlough-scheme-next-month/

 

Housing groups call for law changes to prevent mass evictions

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/b/housing-groups-call-law-changes-prevent-mass-evictions

Edited August 2, 2020 by Saving For a Space Ship

[NobodyInParticular]

On 7/30/2020 at 2:11 PM, PaulTW said:

Was out with a friend last night discussing current climate and impending depression coming up over a couple of beers.

His view was that everyone in the UK should have something alongside their day job to earn themselves more money in case of unemployment or they've done it all wrong. He was bemused when I mentioned most people don't earn enough money to be able to set-up that kind of side hustle let alone save a great deal of money or have the time around childcare. Gave him the example of single mothers etc.

Conveniently, he's from a wealthy family with a host of BTL places. Completely detached from reality.

 

If everyone had two jobs then the glut of labour and services in the marketplace would depress wages and everyone would need three jobs.

Edited August 2, 2020 by NobodyInParticular

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Landlords in England ignoring 'no DSS' ban, claim private renters

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/02/landlords-in-england-ignoring-no-dss-ban-claim-private-renters

This will be another major cause of mass homelessness. If private LL's will not accept the masses of recently unemployed, what are the other options ? 

Nationalise the Hotel industry ?  

[NobodyInParticular]

On 7/30/2020 at 4:15 PM, Blink said:

Forget UBI, it'll never happen, but the answer is something similar and rewards those having worked.

Retirement or UBI at 60 if you've accrued enough stamps.

I can't be Universal Basic Income if it only applies in very limited circumstances. 

[Blink]

1 hour ago, NobodyInParticular said:

I can't be Universal Basic Income if it only applies in very limited circumstances. 

Mute point, call it Early Retirement Basic Income then

 

[NobodyInParticular]

Just now, Blink said:

Mute point, call it Early Retirement Basic Income then

It's not even a moot point. A moot point is where there is no need for debate as the answer has been decided or is self evident, which it is not in this case.

If you are simply bringing retirement forward, it's a state pension. And it only really works if either existing private pensions start at the same time at a sufficient level or the ERBI tops it up as otherwise people won't be taking ER in most cases as they won't be able to afford to.