Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[kzb]

We've just overtaken Italy in deaths per million of population.  UK= 546 and Italy = 545

[Si1]

BoE pushing a v-shaped recovery prediction now...

[kzb]

3 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

Average age of deaths in England and Wales is 78. 90%+ of fatalities have comorbidities. Most who die are in the were going to die soon category. 

OK but be careful of the comorbidities thing. 

Almost everyone in the UK will have at least one, according to our medical industry.  Having a comorbidity does not mean you are at death's door, it could mean your blood pressure is slightly above 130/80 or your BMI is a bit over 25.

[kzb]

2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

BoE pushing a v-shaped recovery prediction now...

TBH I don't see why not.  There is obviously a vast appetite out there to "get back to normal", in fact most of them started already from what I observe round here.

[Arpeggio]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

What are you saying? That the health and quality of life is so good in the UK we are living too long......

UK is the fat man of Europe.

[winkie]

How strong are we, how do other countries look upon us....how do the judge us??

[winkie]

1 minute ago, Arpeggio said:

UK is the fat man of Europe.

What does that mean?.....

[Peter Hun]

21 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

Average age of deaths in England and Wales is 78. 90%+ of fatalities have comorbidities. Most who die are in the were going to die soon category. 

So over 7 years, about 10k less probates per year.

[Si1]

11 minutes ago, kzb said:

TBH I don't see why not.  There is obviously a vast appetite out there to "get back to normal", in fact most of them started already from what I observe round here.

The risks against this are if there's a supply side inflationary shock with both a domestic and international origin. Or a liquidity trap the BoE don't really have sufficient tools to compensate.

[ticket2ride]

16 minutes ago, kzb said:

We've just overtaken Italy in deaths per million of population.  UK= 546 and Italy = 545

Worth reading 22 Days of Dither and Delay, in case anyone missed it over the weekend with all the excitement of Dominic in the Rose garden.

Our hero makes an appearance, but the supporting case also identified.

Quote

The bars and trains remained packed and mass sporting events were attended as normal. Many people are likely to have paid with their lives for commuting on packed trains, drinking in pubs and attending events such as the Cheltenham Festival during this period.

 

[slawek]

20 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

Average age of deaths in England and Wales is 78. 90%+ of fatalities have comorbidities. Most who die are in the were going to die soon category. 

Using the ONS Covid-19 deaths by age distribution and the life expectation at different age I am getting 10 years lost on average. 

I guess an adjustment for comorbidities is 0.8-0.9 (cancer 10y survival is 0.5) that gives 8-9 years on average. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/expectationoflifeprincipalprojectionunitedkingdom

[Arpeggio]

Just now, winkie said:

What does that mean?.....

The fat man of Europe is metaphorical for the UK having the highest obesity in Europe.

I have occasionally suspected you of being a bot, not because I want to pass you off from objecting to your comments (99% of the time that's not the case), but because of your posting style, such as statements, snippets of wisdom that are relevant but not interactive with other posters. I mean, like your last one where you say....

How strong are we, how do other countries look upon us....how do the judge us??

It's either that, or you are Yoda. Infact your posts seems better if read in the voice of Yoda. I hope you aren't offended. If you are, then perhaps I have not learnt anything from your teachings.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

On 25/05/2020 at 19:25, Peter Hun said:

Bought air conditioning on Friday, decided we are going to need it for the second wave. Maybe we will be lucky and there won't be one, not betting on that.

I thought the first wave was going to last longer, it might yet... working from home etc.
Had a room fitted with an indoor/outdoor unit a week before lockdown.
In a rush and cost ~£2k for the main bedroom install. Plus up to 15p per hour electricity and ongoing annual maintenance.
Max consumption up to 1kW for heat pump to provide 3.5kW of cooling heat transfer (with a dehumidifyer).
Used quite a few evenings this year already ?.

Edit: 3.5kW is approx 12000 BTU

Edited May 26, 2020 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
typo's and details

[kzb]

13 minutes ago, slawek said:

Using the ONS Covid-19 deaths by age distribution and the life expectation at different age I am getting 10 years lost on average. 

I guess an adjustment for comorbidities is 0.8-0.9 (cancer 10y survival is 0.5) that gives 8-9 years on average. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/expectationoflifeprincipalprojectionunitedkingdom

Is it more than this for males and less for females?

[winkie]

The young, the healthy can go out take the risk of catching it......many have already done so, had a nasty bout of flu like symptoms, 7 to 14 days laid up, no energy, totally drained, no taste, no smell.....shit this is not nice. They can afford to take that risk then go out and continue living their life whilst having an immunity, having gained some antibodies, how long for, who knows?

Others are scared, they know they are not very healthy, might be overweight, with diabetes, high blood presure taking certain drugs or have a weak immune system, cancers, COPD or other lung weaknesses they may be elderly and othrwise valunerable....when can they feel safe enough to be released?......or like will say shucks only live once no way will they stay in locked down for infinity......?

[winkie]

10 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

The fat man of Europe is metaphorical for the UK having the highest obesity in Europe.

I have occasionally suspected you of being a bot, not because I want to pass you off from objecting to your comments (99% of the time that's not the case), but because of your posting style, such as statements, snippets of wisdom that are relevant but not interactive with other posters. I mean, like your last one where you say....

How strong are we, how do other countries look upon us....how do the judge us??

It's either that, or you are Yoda. Infact your posts seems better if read in the voice of Yoda. I hope you aren't offended. If you are, then perhaps I have not learnt anything from your teachings.

Never offended.....like to view things from a different angle.....what is Yoda? a brand name for a biscuit??

[Arpeggio]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

Never offended.....like to view things from a different angle.....what is Yoda? a brand name for a biscuit??

Yes, it's a Japanese biscuit brand. Pronounced "Yoda" but in Japanese is ヨーダ. No, really it's a character from the Star Wars films.

[MARTINX9]

11 minutes ago, winkie said:

The young, the healthy can go out take the risk of catching it......many have already done so, had a nasty bout of flu like symptoms, 7 to 14 days laid up, no energy, totally drained, no taste, no smell.....shit this is not nice. They can afford to take that risk then go out and continue living their life whilst having an immunity, having gained some antibodies, how long for, who knows?

Others are scared, they know they are not very healthy, might be overweight, with diabetes, high blood presure taking certain drugs or have a weak immune system, cancers, COPD or other lung weaknesses they may be elderly and othrwise valunerable....when can they feel safe enough to be released?......or like will say shucks only live once no way will they stay in locked down for infinity......?

Many others may also have had it and showed no symptoms at all.

Five months in we still don’t fully understand this virus and why it barely affects some and drives others into ICU alongside long term organ failure and the loss of the ability to walk even to a small number of apparently young and healthy types.

I dread to think what it may have in store for us this winter if it returns -  back to  lockdown in mid November would be grim indeed..

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by MARTINX9

[Peter Hun]

11 minutes ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:

I thought the first wave was going to last longer, it might yet... working from home etc.
Had a room fitted with an indoor/outdoor unit a week before lockdown.
In a rush and cost ~£2k for the main bedroom install. Plus up to 15p per hour electricity and ongoing annual maintenance.
Max consumption up to 1kW for heat pump to provide 3.5kW of cooling heat transfer (with a dehumidifyer).
Used quite a few evenings this year already ?.

 

Bought this. https://www.olimpiasplendid.com/without-outdoor-unit/unico_air_inverter_2

No outside unit,. Easy to install without an aircon specialist and no professional servicing required, The manual contradicts this. So I need it professionally installed.

Stuck it on my window shelf, partially opened the sash window and using it without installation. Works well..until i can get an installer

[Si1]

1 minute ago, MARTINX9 said:

.

I dread to think what it may have in store for us this winter if it returns -  back to  lockdown in mid November would be grim indeed..

 

 

You do wonder if family Christmases will be banned this year.

[winkie]

15 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

Many others may also have had it and showed no symptoms at all.

Five months in we still don’t fully understand this virus and why it barely affects some and drives others into ICU alongside long term organ failure and the loss of the ability to walk even to a small number of apparently young and healthy types.

I dread to think what it may have in store for us this winter if it returns -  back to  lockdown in mid November would be grim indeed..

 

 

You do wonder.....most would prefer not to think about it, the sunshine and warmth helps at the moment.?

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

11 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Bought this. https://www.olimpiasplendid.com/without-outdoor-unit/unico_air_inverter_2

No outside unit,. Easy to install without an aircon specialist and no professional servicing required, The manual contradicts this. So I need it professionally installed.

Stuck it on my window shelf, partially opened the sash window and using it without installation. Works well..until i can get an installer

Thanks. Interesting and lower price, better than many of the other indoor units I'd considered.
There's a lot to consider with AC setups, it wasn't easy to find a fair priced local domestic installer, when their money is in commecial with rolling service contracts. Had to go with a simple unit and brand that the installer was able to supply and install. Can't really recommend over the mirriad of other setups on the market, other than it works as expected.

[kzb]

23 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Bought this. https://www.olimpiasplendid.com/without-outdoor-unit/unico_air_inverter_2

No outside unit,. Easy to install without an aircon specialist and no professional servicing required, The manual contradicts this. So I need it professionally installed.

Stuck it on my window shelf, partially opened the sash window and using it without installation. Works well..until i can get an installer

Aircon without an outside unit blows inside air to the outside.  To prevent a vacuum air has to enter the room from somewhere, and that will be at ambient (warm) temperature.

So it's not as efficient as aircon with an outside heat dumping unit.

[nightowl]

27 minutes ago, Si1 said:

You do wonder if family Christmases will be banned this year.

Oh there will be some people praying to avoid extended family etc ? 

[Peter Hun]

2 minutes ago, kzb said:

Aircon without an outside unit blows inside air to the outside.  To prevent a vacuum air has to enter the room from somewhere, and that will be at ambient (warm) temperature.

So it's not as efficient as aircon with an outside heat dumping unit.

Nope, its doesn't work like that, had one of those type and I agree it was useless as it sucked in warm air from outside.

This sucks the air in through one outside vent, adds heat to it and then dumps it outside via the second vent. You need two 162mm diameter holes drilling through the wall.