Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

6 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

Didn't you switch to cash in Jan 2018 and lost out of a lot of growth? I did for a few months and then went back in 

Not that exact timing, it was Oct 2018. The DOW got to 26400, and I sold out before the mini-crash in Oct 2018,  between 25,500 and 26,000 depending on the fund. Yes, the DOW did hit 29,000 briefly after the recent Trump pump, and i was getting a bit worried then, but it did also coincide with a period where Sterling gained a bit which would have reduced the gains on foreign assets - so actually i probably only missed 8% off the top. But that would have been a short lived valuation anyhow.

Anyway, by luck, when I decided to get back in after the COVID crunch at least 2 of the bigger funds hit pretty much the DOW low of 18,500, and another was nearer 19,700.

Clearly these funds have done very well in the last few weeks after 18 months of small low interest gains.

Tonight i will see a record valuation, as the markets have been very positive today.

 

 

[pig]

In the meantime....

 

Quote

 

We need urgent answers about the massive NHS COVID data deal

Why is the UK government refusing to release details of its ‘unprecedented’ data transfer to US tech giants? If we don’t get answers, we may seek them in the courts.

 

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/we-need-urgent-answers-about-massive-nhs-covid-data-deal/

[Peter Hun]

4 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Not that exact timing, it was Oct 2018. The DOW got to 26400, and I sold out before the mini-crash in Oct 2018,  between 25,500 and 26,000 depending on the fund. Yes, the DOW did hit 29,000 briefly after the recent Trump pump, and i was getting a bit worried then, but it did also coincide with a period where Sterling gained a bit which would have reduced the gains on foreign assets - so actually i probably only missed 8% off the top. But that would have been a short lived valuation anyhow.

Anyway, by luck, when I decided to get back in after the COVID crunch at least 2 of the bigger funds hit pretty much the DOW low of 18,500, and another was nearer 19,700.

Clearly these funds have done very well in the last few weeks after 18 months of small low interest gains.

Tonight i will see a record valuation, as the markets have been very positive today.

 

 

 

I decided that I'd stay with the general advice to stay in the market and not miss the rebound. My fund takes two days or so to enact trades, so its risking to tray to trade.

[Bruce Banner]

5 minutes ago, pig said:

In the meantime....

 

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/we-need-urgent-answers-about-massive-nhs-covid-data-deal/

Your best bet is to keep it well away from your phone until you are satisfied.

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

BoE pushing a v-shaped recovery prediction now...

That's because they already know we aren't going to play the lockdown hokey kokey.. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

1 minute ago, Peter Hun said:

 

I decided that I'd stay with the general advice to stay in the market and not miss the rebound. My fund takes two days or so to enact trades, so its risking to tray to trade.

That was exactly my issue as well, but I was really waiting for the big macro trends rather than day trading.

I had been fully in equities since 1996, I rode through 2008/9 as I didn't have that big a fund at the time and my increased contributions were a decent percentage of the fund at the time, so it was actually good to be buying shares cheap for a period.

Anyway having picked up the lessons of the dotcom and 2008/9 crash I knew they'd be another and in October 2018 i decided valuations were historically stretched. Which was true, and I was right a few weeks later, but then I didn't quite count on the Trump factor for the rebound.

That said, it is better to sell a bit early (like I did) than having to panic sell tracker funds in a fast falling market. If I still held the funds as the DOW hit 29,000, I am quite certain they'd have got offloaded too late at a rubbish price and out of my control.

 

 

 

[Simhadri]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/26/uk-recession-bank-of-england-economist-andy-haldane

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, Si1 said:

BoE pushing a v-shaped recovery prediction now...

Killer Bunny's doomsday forecast cancelled again.

 

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, Simhadri said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/26/uk-recession-bank-of-england-economist-andy-haldane

Good news if correct.....better for some than others.?

[Si1]

8 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Killer Bunny's doomsday forecast cancelled again.

 

But don't give the BoE's nowcasting too much credibility....

[The Preacherman]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

Using the ONS Covid-19 deaths by age distribution and the life expectation at different age I am getting 10 years lost on average. 

I guess an adjustment for comorbidities is 0.8-0.9 (cancer 10y survival is 0.5) that gives 8-9 years on average. 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/expectationoflifeprincipalprojectionunitedkingdom

No you're missing that Covid-19 is a flat track bully and tends to kill those who are already have impaired life expectancy. It wouldn't surprise me if at the end of the year the excess deaths number for 2020 is no more than 10,000.

[zugzwang]

1 minute ago, Si1 said:

But don't give the BoE's nowcasting too much credibility....

40% of the world has eradicated C-19 already. Most of Asia, Europe and Africa. Test, Trace, Isolate: We know how to beat it.

Like the original SARS it was an entirely preventable pandemic. There won't be a global second wave.

[slawek]

1 hour ago, kzb said:

Is it more than this for males and less for females?

It is calculated separately for males and females and than averaged across those two groups. Male only average is 10.6y, female only 9.7y. There are much more 90+ females and consequently Covid-19 female  deaths in this age group, which lowers the average. 

[slawek]

12 minutes ago, The Preacherman said:

No you're missing that Covid-19 is a flat track bully and tends to kill those who are already have impaired life expectancy. It wouldn't surprise me if at the end of the year the excess deaths number for 2020 is no more than 10,000.

Are their life expectancy more impaired than cancer patients? 

[Arpeggio]

1 hour ago, pig said:

In the meantime....

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/we-need-urgent-answers-about-massive-nhs-covid-data-deal/

Companies such as a few of those mentioned in your link are censoring information on their platforms. There are several arms to that, such as MS "Newsguard". Gates left Microsoft early this year to do "philanthropic" work. He is seeking indemnity for 700,000 adverse vaccine reactions and is the only person I'm aware of who smiles at the economic damage.

He is also very much into Global Surveillance  https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/the-brave-new-world-of-bill-gates-and-big-telecom/ The quantum dot / vaccine compliance ID is for the next generation, i.e. your kids. The new type of vaccine use messangar RNA to change your DNA.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

2 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Companies such as a few of those mentioned in your link are censoring information on their platforms. There are several arms to that, such as MS "Newsguard". Gates left Microsoft early this year to do "philanthropic" work. He is seeking indemnity for 700,000 adverse vaccine reactions and is the only person I'm aware of who smiles at the economic damage.

He is also very much into Global Surveillance  https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/the-brave-new-world-of-bill-gates-and-big-telecom/ The quantum dot / vaccine compliance ID is for the next generation, i.e. your kids. The new type of vaccine use messangar RNA to change your DNA.

Sorry, for a moment I thought I was on another forum!

[Arpeggio]

53 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

40% of the world has eradicated C-19 already. Most of Asia, Europe and Africa. Test, Trace, Isolate: We know how to beat it.

Like the original SARS it was an entirely preventable pandemic. There won't be a global second wave.

I sometimes wonder if SARS did not spread as much due to being more deadly, while COVID19 spread more due to being less deadly.

In other words SARS knocks you out for 6 while COVID19 has people walking about with it exposing their family to it without even knowing.

A bit like the inversely propotional issue of how higher radio frequencies have shorter distance range while lower ones have greater distance range. Hence why f-i-v-e jee with it's higher frequencies needs towers and emitters all over the frikin' place, like 1 every 5 houses.

[Arpeggio]

4 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Sorry, for a moment I thought I was on another forum!

Just look it up, what I say. If in Jan / Feb this year someone had told you that you would be apprehended and moved along by the police for sunbathing you would have laughed.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

19 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

Just look it up, what I say. If in Jan / Feb this year someone had told you that you would be apprehended and moved along by the police for sunbathing you would have laughed.

No, I often sunbathe naked in public, so happens all the time.....

 

 

ok, only joking!!!!

 

 

 

I’d never sunbathe naked in Jan/Feb in the UK, way too cold!

Edited May 26, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[longgone]

1 hour ago, Grayphil said:

That's because they already know we aren't going to play the lockdown hokey kokey.. 

The lockdown was too tame to begin with, should of enforced home stays and kept going to 0 deaths worldwide till then nada nothing. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

24 minutes ago, Arpeggio said:

I sometimes wonder if SARS did not spread as much due to being more deadly, while COVID19 spread more due to being less deadly.

In other words SARS knocks you out for 6 while COVID19 has people walking about with it exposing their family to it without even knowing.

A bit like the inversely propotional issue of how higher radio frequencies have shorter distance range while lower ones have greater distance range. Hence why f-i-v-e jee with it's higher frequencies needs towers and emitters all over the frikin' place, like 1 every 5 houses.

The range and potential data rates are indeed connected. Higher frequencies with a wider allowable band actually have the advantage of being able to carry far more data, they are also better at penetrating buildings. Where they fail is as you say overall range.

The splits between HF, VHF and UHF are  3-30Mhz, 30MHz-300MHz and 300MHz-3GHz, as well as the lower frequency bands for MF, LF, VLF, ULF, SLF and ELF. The very low bands have big ranges, but need massive antenna.

The 5G signals are in the SHF and EHF ranges. So fast data, small antenna, but rubbish range. This is why part of the 5G proposal is to mesh devices to allow piggy backing of data. The issue there I would imagine is a bit more battery drain and effectively you are acting as a mini base station.

[Grayphil]

1 hour ago, longgone said:

The lockdown was too tame to begin with, should of enforced home stays and kept going to 0 deaths worldwide till then nada nothing. 

Its very true that it could be eradicated in one country quickly. By locking everyone in place where they are... No ifs, no buts and no food, for a month.. But more people would die than from the disease.. And then it would come back from another country in a year's time. 

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, The Preacherman said:

No you're missing that Covid-19 is a flat track bully and tends to kill those who are already have impaired life expectancy. It wouldn't surprise me if at the end of the year the excess deaths number for 2020 is no more than 10,000.

Me either 

[zugzwang]

30 minutes ago, longgone said:

The lockdown was too tame to begin with, should of enforced home stays and kept going to 0 deaths worldwide till then nada nothing. 

Essentially, yes.

China, Taiwan and South Korea proved that containment was possible with a sufficiently robust intervention. New Zealand and Greece switched from mitigationfollowed their example, then Africa, Australia and Eastern Europe. Clearly, many of these countries had first-hand experience with SARS and MERS; useful preparation for the psychological and poltical discipline of lockdown.

[Grayphil]

2 hours ago, zugzwang said:

40% of the world has eradicated C-19 already. Most of Asia, Europe and Africa. Test, Trace, Isolate: We know how to beat it.

Like the original SARS it was an entirely preventable pandemic. There won't be a global second wave.

It has not been eradicated in Africa due to test trace and Isolate.. You are talking Kak

There is a multitude of other forces at play, even in Europe there are countries that did not have facilities for test track and Isolate.. There are many, but I'll mention latvia, as I know it well, its a country that didn't have any tests at the start and certainly no track and trace in place worth its salt, and yet somehow they seem to be doing pretty well.. 

And its not cos of lockdown. Because Russians drive through freely, in and out or the country via a city called Daugavpils, therefore potentially bringing infections in all the time