Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Confusion of VIs]

 

"On 2 December, it will have been illegal for someone in Leicester to go into another person’s house for dinner – for example - for 255 days or more than eight months.

They were briefly allowed to go into each other’s gardens in June, before local restrictions kicked in."

And we are questioning why compliance maybe just maybe might becoming strained. 

Leicester still in tier 3 so luckily all that lockdown erm.. Worked 

Lockdowns work, as proven by all the countries that have got on top of the virus and even here with the first lockdown. 

The question is why didn't it work in Leicester, was the lockdown too half ar$ed to ever work or was there too much non compliance for it to work. 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Confusion of VIs

[Megadebt]

 

Tegnell said in May that we shouldn't judge him until this Autumn.

OK, Anders.

You failed.

 

 But how much exactly of a failure maybe too early to say,  comparing total future morbidity and any orther indicators of the nation's health in medium term, perhaps over the next three years?  In July, he said judge this in a year,seems premature to prejudge this befre the peak of the 2nd wave?

 

 

 

Can see why the pub cos asked for evidence. Again it won't be provided if course. 

There is none - yet, but there are too many uncertainties here to demand proof for every different contaiment restriction.  Short of finding 100, 000 pub drinkers and their familes and splitting them into three groups:  

a)stay in

b)go pub but distance and shorter hours

c)crowd into the pub as usual, and get hammered

...then we get a clearer answer by Christmas? 

too late,  decisions need to be taken now,even with incomplete understanding.

[captainb]

 

What evidence do they want, proven transmission at a pub? 

Quite possibly they are being disingenuous, asking for evidence that  they know cannot be provided because our case tracking and contact tracing is so poor. 

They are looking for what the decision is based on nothing more nothing less. 

That must exist. 

However its not being released as I expect its a nonsensical as the justification for mass closure at 10pm on the dot. Which was definitely based on science apparently... Until when it came to it was based on "worked in Belgium" amusing in a horrific way given Belgium has been worst hit in Europe 

[captainb]

 

Lockdowns work, as proven by all the countries that have got on top of the virus and even here with the first lockdown. 

The question is why didn't it work in Leicester, was the lockdown too half ar$ed to ever work or was to much non compliance for it to work. 

Proven by? The rates coming down in the summer which happened regardless of level of lcokdown... 

Got to do better than that. It then reverts into the you can't compare countries that did and didn't do lcodkowns because. Right doesn't look good on the religion. 

[pig]

 

WHO me?

My sense of humour is crap, sorry.

The problem is I zoomed in and screen shot it, no idea how to Zoom the actual graph

Turned out to be useful though as you can now check back at the original graph and see why your claim that fatalities were back at nothing in Sweden was false.

[Confusion of VIs]

 

They are looking for what the decision is based on nothing more nothing less. 

That must exist. 

However its not being released as I expect its a nonsensical as the justification for mass closure at 10pm on the dot. Which was definitely based on science apparently... Until when it came to it was based on "worked in Belgium" amusing in a horrific way given Belgium has been worst hit in Europe 

There is aerosol spread plus it is impossible to monitor/enforce restrictions on household mixing in the traditional pub environment.

What more do you need to know to think that they are a likely contributor to spreading the virus, Pub Cos asking for a number to be put on that spread using non existent evidence is just deflection. 

 

Proven by? The rates coming down in the summer which happened regardless of level of lcokdown... 

Got to do better than that. It then reverts into the you can't compare countries that did and didn't do lcodkowns because. Right doesn't look good on the religion. 

Who says?

There is enough evidence that lockdowns work and quickly reduce the spread. Maybe in 10yrs time there will be the academic studies you are asking for now but no use for governments needing to decide policy today.  

[captainb]

 

There is aerosol spread plus it is impossible to monitor/enforce restrictions on household mixing in the traditional pub environment.

What more do you need to know to think that they are a likely contributor to spreading the virus, Pub Cos asking for a number to be put on that spread using non existent evidence is just deflection. 

Who says?

There is enough evidence that lockdowns work and quickly reduce the spread. Maybe in 10yrs time there will be the academic studies you are asking for now but no use for governments needing to decide policy today.  

The issue isn't can you spread in close qrs but as time goes on whether shutting hospitality does net harm or good as people meet in homes instead. 

Who says??? Perhaps those millions who will end up the dole, perhaps those who will lose their buisness perhaps the rest of the population stuck in limbo for years and then paying off this farce for decades. Perhaps those that get poorer cancer treatment going foward or told we can't afford this new drug. 

It goes back to a religious mantra of it must work as look rates went down in most places. But they went down everywhere regardless in summer? No no you can't point that out. All lockdown regardless of strength of it 

As time goes on the argument that it "works" rather than can kicks becomes more ludicrous by its continued existence. 

 

 

"On 2 December, it will have been illegal for someone in Leicester to go into another person’s house for dinner – for example - for 255 days or more than eight months.

They were briefly allowed to go into each other’s gardens in June, before local restrictions kicked in."

Again still tier 3.

[swankyman]

 

Turned out to be useful though as you can now check back at the original graph and see why your claim that fatalities were back at nothing in Sweden was false.

You do remember I corrected myself when you pointed out my error??

I still say it's leveled off and most likely dropping though. 😃

[pig]

 

You do remember I corrected myself when you pointed out my error??

I still say it's leveled off and most likely dropping though. 😃

My god has debate actually worked ?!

OK in that case I'll claim it hasn't levelled off (might have) and is going up so lets give it a week or so and you can correct me in turn

 

[14stFlyer]

Like many previous posters, I am worried about the lack of adherence to the rules, and the damaging drop in sentiment with making an effort to constrain Coronavirus.  I am especially worried as we now have a much clearer idea of timescale (the light at the end of the tunnel). 

I think we need to make the Tier system a clear  and certain "carrot" for behaviour.  With clear and certain rewards for progress made.  For example

Covid case rate <250 per 100,000  for two weeks running and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 3 and can go to the restaurants

Covid case rate <100 per 100,000 for two weeks and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 2 and can go to the pubs

Covid case rate <10 per 100,000 for two weeks and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 1 and can finally go round to a mates house

This is the only way I can see to incentivise the behaviour we need to minimize death and disease this winter

[zugzwang]

 

 

 But how much exactly of a failure maybe too early to say,  comparing total future morbidity and any orther indicators of the nation's health in medium term, perhaps over the next three years?  In July, he said judge this in a year,seems premature to prejudge this befre the peak of the 2nd wave?

 

Not quite as bad as USUK. Does that count as a win?

[swankyman]

 

My god has debate actually worked ?!

OK in that case I'll claim it hasn't levelled off (might have) and is going up so lets give it a week or so and you can correct me in turn

 

Look, almost everyone one here sees admitting a mistake as a weakness. Maybe that's because they are insecure, I don't know. I don't care, I just like the truth, opinions are fun too.

Cheers

 

Edited November 26, 2020 by swankyman

[captainb]

 

Like many previous posters, I am worried about the lack of adherence to the rules, and the damaging drop in sentiment with making an effort to constrain Coronavirus.  I am especially worried as we now have a much clearer idea of timescale (the light at the end of the tunnel). 

I think we need to make the Tier system a clear  and certain "carrot" for behaviour.  With clear and certain rewards for progress made.  For example

Covid case rate <250 per 100,000  for two weeks running and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 3 and can go to the restaurants

Covid case rate <100 per 100,000 for two weeks and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 2 and can go to the pubs

Covid case rate <10 per 100,000 for two weeks and space in the hospitals = leave Tier 1 and can finally go round to a mates house

This is the only way I can see to incentivise the behaviour we need to minimize death and disease this winter

That would make a lot more sense. Could almost have a fundraising target 80% of there now.. Push a little further. 

Needs to be something. If you are in manchester under 30 now are you really not going round your mates house on Friday night?? Given its month 5 of lockdown for them ....

 

Have to at least be somewhat realistic about how people behave. 

[14stFlyer]

 

Needs to be something. If you are in manchester under 30 now are you really not going round your mates house on Friday night?? Given its month 5 of lockdown for them ....

Agree, but its not just the youngsters on a Friday night. Around here Its the middle aged cyclists and joggers meeting up in a group of 6+ for a run, the group of mums chatting outside the take away coffee shop, the up-close and personal natter at the check out till.  We are pretty much all breaking the rules in some way, and the carrot approach may make us think about  what we are doing it in a positive way, rather than just the possible guilt trip.  

[Riedquat]

 

Agree, but its not just the youngsters on a Friday night. Around here Its the middle aged cyclists and joggers meeting up in a group of 6+ for a run, the group of mums chatting outside the take away coffee shop, the up-close and personal natter at the check out till.  We are pretty much all breaking the rules in some way, and the carrot approach may make us think about  what we are doing it in a positive way, rather than just the possible guilt trip.  

Good point about the guilt trip. Trying to get people to do what you want with a stick might mean they'll act to avoid the stick, but that doesn't necessarily mean by doing what you want them to do ("I know a place we can meet up with some beer where  the police won't bother us.")

[Confusion of VIs]

 

The issue isn't can you spread in close qrs but as time goes on whether shutting hospitality does net harm or good as people meet in homes instead. 

Who says??? Perhaps those millions who will end up the dole, perhaps those who will lose their buisness perhaps the rest of the population stuck in limbo for years and then paying off this farce for decades. Perhaps those that get poorer cancer treatment going foward or told we can't afford this new drug. 

It goes back to a religious mantra of it must work as look rates went down in most places. But they went down everywhere regardless in summer? No no you can't point that out. All lockdown regardless of strength of it 

As time goes on the argument that it "works" rather than can kicks becomes more ludicrous by its continued existence. 

"On 2 December, it will have been illegal for someone in Leicester to go into another person’s house for dinner – for example - for 255 days or more than eight months.

They were briefly allowed to go into each other’s gardens in June, before local restrictions kicked in."

Again still tier 3.

I am not arguing that our governments response has been good, its been abysmal.

Amazingly despite their half ar$ed implementation lockdowns still have broad public support and with a vaccine rollout  just around the corner complaining about them now is just howling at the moon.

[MancTom]

 

Agree, but its not just the youngsters on a Friday night. Around here Its the middle aged cyclists and joggers meeting up in a group of 6+ for a run, the group of mums chatting outside the take away coffee shop, the up-close and personal natter at the check out till.  We are pretty much all breaking the rules in some way, and the carrot approach may make us think about  what we are doing it in a positive way, rather than just the possible guilt trip.  

Most people I know are bending the rules now. 

[Megadebt]

 

I am not arguing that our governments response has been good, its been abysmal.

Amazingly despite their half ar$ed implementation lockdowns still have broad public support and with a vaccine rollout  just around the corner complaining about them now is just howling at the moon.

 

[Peter Hun]

 

The maximum damage is caused by people imposing more and more restrictions and in doing so destroying public good will and compliance. But like the best zealots they'll never question their dogma and instinct to shut down those who disagree with them.

Boris Johnson? Yes you are talking about the PM. Take it up with him, I didn't vote for the stupid ****.

[winkie]

Where is the logic of going from weeks of no mix households, covering faces and distancing..... to up to three households of up to ten people totaling up to thirty people meeting indoors, no face covering and no distancing, eating drinking and being merry........most people don't have large country houses to celebrate Christmas in.......very many will be alone this Christmas, like they were last Christmas

Sometimes you wonder.

[winkie]

It will all end in tiers.

[pig]

Just a thought - sounds like london was into its mask-wearing ...

[Confusion of VIs]

 

Where is the logic of going from weeks of no mix households, covering faces and distancing..... to up to three households of up to ten people totaling up to thirty people meeting indoors, no face covering and no distancing, eating drinking and being merry........most people don't have large country houses to celebrate Christmas in.......very many will be alone this Christmas, like they were last Christmas

Sometimes you wonder.

We will see the impact of Thanksgiving in the US a week or two before Christmas, could be reassuring or a warning not to proceed with the planned rule changes.   

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

So looks like the vaccine tests were not conducted correctly according to this article...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8990763/Covid-vaccine-trials-did-not-monitor-participants-wore-masks-socially-distanced.html#article-8990763

Seeing as deaths have flat lined and new cases are falling, may be we should just get on with life!!!

Edited November 26, 2020 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[captainb]

 

I am not arguing that our governments response has been good, its been abysmal.

Amazingly despite their half ar$ed implementation lockdowns still have broad public support and with a vaccine rollout  just around the corner complaining about them now is just howling at the moon.

Haha fair we agree. 

Yes like moaning about house prices?! 

Genuinely think in 5 years we will look back and think what on earth we're we doing, from section alpha new London cardboard box division 6.