Confusion of VIs Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Hasn't happened yet.. Although I do wonder if the good people of Sunderland will link Nissan leaving with brexit. Probably not. The public seems remarkably uncurious about finances, judging from the OBR's figures in the 2020 budget report we were are already down about £60bn a year but nobody seems to care or even noticed. All that is seems to take to fool the public is for the government to ban direct reporting of a link. Look at how easily yesterday Raab deflected Andrew Marr's questioning about the treasuries own forecasts predicting major Brexit related economic woes. Same will probably be true of Covid, everything will be the fault of Gordon Brown or the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The ones I have heard spouting off on TV don't seem capable of assessing evidence/data. I you recall Steve Baker's little group along with their "data experts" spent several hours in No 10 with SAGE experts, supposedly assessing the evidence prior to the second lockdown. Came out of No 10 saying they were satisfied, but then got upset that the data presented was not real time. Do we know what was discussed in that meeting with No10? They may have come out 'satisfied' that lockdown will end on Dec 2nd without fail....only now to find out the new tiers are rigged to essentially be lockdown in all but name to avoid a re-vote and rebellion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The public seems remarkably uncurious about finances, judging from the OBR's figures in the 2020 budget report we were are already down about £60bn a year but nobody seems to care or even noticed. All that is seems to take to fool the public is for the government to ban direct reporting of a link. Look at how easily yesterday Raab deflected Andrew Marr's questioning about the treasuries own forecasts predicting major Brexit related economic woes. Same will probably be true of Covid, everything will be the fault of Gordon Brown or the EU. When you can create enough panic and fear amongst the masses, the public cares not where the money goes, what laws get passed or what civil liberties go out the window. Politicians and VIs (like bankers for example) are expert at taking advantage of situations like this to grab more power and money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Do we know what was discussed in that meeting with No10? They may have come out 'satisfied' that lockdown will end on Dec 2nd without fail....only now to find out the new tiers are rigged to essentially be lockdown in all but name to avoid a re-vote and rebellion. No but at the time they claimed their "data experts" went through the data with a fine toothcomb, later admitting they didn't even ask what period it related to. The idea of putting a date on the end of restrictions is ridiculous. The tier or lockdown entrance/exit should be tied to infection rates. At the moment we have areas going into Tier 2 with 10x the infection rate that triggers quarantine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 No but at the time they claimed their "data experts" went through the data with a fine toothcomb, later admitting they didn't even ask what period it related to. The idea of putting a date on the end of restrictions is ridiculous. The tier or lockdown entrance/exit should be tied to infection rates. At the moment we have areas going into Tier 2 with 10x the infection rate that triggers quarantine. Has that rate that triggers qaurentine been disclosed? You are also assuming that these restrictions actually work. London and the SE has more infections coming out of lockdown than going in. A key question for these models is if they actually take into account human behaviour. I expect its as basic as shut pubs stop 4% on infections and fails to take into account in month 5 of this a significant number will meet in a private home instead. Net difference could be positive or negative. Then bigger picture if you kids what difference is any of this actually going to make if schools are open Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The idea of putting a date on the end of restrictions is ridiculous. The tier or lockdown entrance/exit should be tied to infection rates. Its not ridiculous to have an end date that can be used to renew it IF there is an informed debate and vote which may well extend it. This is especially so given the impact of the decision and whatever you think about elected officials they have to face the electorate every 5 years but SAGE will never have to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megadebt Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The idea of putting a date on the end of restrictions is ridiculous. The tier or lockdown entrance/exit should be tied to infection rates. At the moment we have areas going into Tier 2 with 10x the infection rate that triggers quarantine. Would have been better just to announce that initially as the policy, as a carrot and stick local incentive rather than this 'just a bit longer, wait and see' type blagging it. Government seems really scared of losing fragile public support now, these next weeks to Christmas and new year could be a pivotal moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Government seems really scared of losing fragile public support now, these next weeks to Christmas and new year could be a pivotal moment. That's why they are 'allowing' us out for Christmas - people were going to have xmas anyway in some form so the Gov had to appear to 'permit' it or risk humiliation. This suggests the surveys of the public in favour of lockdown are misguided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Has that rate that triggers qaurentine been disclosed? You are also assuming that these restrictions actually work. London and the SE has more infections coming out of lockdown than going in. A key question for these models is if they actually take into account human behaviour. I expect its as basic as shut pubs stop 4% on infections and fails to take into account in month 5 of this a significant number will meet in a private home instead. Net difference could be positive or negative. Then bigger picture if you kids what difference is any of this actually going to make if schools are open I would expect that schools are by far the biggest vector for transmission. They are massive hotbeds for spreading viruses at the best of times. Luckily, very few kids are at risk of fatality themselves but then you could say the same about most people of working age and it hasn't stopped all aspects of life from being clamped down on. But I think the government realise that if they shut schools now for potentially months until the Spring, they will have a real pushback from the general population so they are keeping them open while making a show of clamping down on just about everything else. Ultimately, it'll probably help increase community immunity though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Its not ridiculous to have an end date that can be used to renew it IF there is an informed debate and vote which may well extend it. This is especially so given the impact of the decision and whatever you think about elected officials they have to face the electorate every 5 years but SAGE will never have to. The aim of lockdown i to achieve a reduction in infections not to spend a set time in lockdown. Knowing lockdown would end once the infection rate was below a set level might encourage people to follow the rules. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The aim of lockdown i to achieve a reduction in infections not to spend a set time in lockdown. Knowing lockdown would end once the infection rate was below a set level might encourage people to follow the rules. If the gov say they want a 1 month lockdown then afterwards fiddle the tier system to extend it without debate and vote is the issue for me, not so much the time vs infection levels itself but the slight-of-hand exit strategy. It will mean people think the Gov will just keep rolling it on and on anyway and it risks losing peoples stretched goodwill whatever criteria they use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiggerUK Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 So, here we are at Lockdown Day 252, over 40,000,000 tests and still we are told that lockdown works. If lockdown is working, how come deaths haven't stopped. Quack scientists trying to prove a negative is not following the science, it's just following the money for old rope, loads of money..._ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkHorseWaits-NoMore Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 These UK lockdowns are (again) too late and too soft and for far too long. Centralised private sector Test Track n Trace is not effective. Hence, more soft lockdowns will continue to be applied to cap the infection rate whilst being very economically destructive. A further demonstration that the Tory incompetence and dogma never changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiggerUK Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 A further demonstration that the Tory incompetence and dogma never changes. The Labour Party is just as dumb. It's driving me insane, and I'm a member of the Labour Party. The other nations parties are just as crass, they are all tripping over each other with ever wilder lockdown policies and more stringent conditions..._ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megadebt Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 So, here we are at Lockdown Day 252, over 40,000,000 tests and still we are told that lockdown works. If lockdown is working, how come deaths haven't stopped. Quack scientists trying to prove a negative is not following the science, it's just following the money for old rope, loads of money..._ Covid isn't instant death like a cyanide capsule, can take several weeks - as the infection rates are (mainly) reducing now the deaths go up as they are weeks out of synch. Science doesn't really pay that good money, a decent 360 excavator operator or concrete pump guy earns more than the average science graduate, with significantly relaxed entry qualifications.🙃 No proving negatives here, the real debate now is cost/ benefit/risks of lockdowns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Science doesn't really pay that good money, a decent 360 excavator operator or concrete pump guy earns more than the average science graduate, with significantly relaxed entry qualifications.🙃 That's true of many graduates pay and not just science. The Labour Party is just as dumb. It's driving me insane, and I'm a member of the Labour Party. An led by a human right lawyer...and not a murmur from him about wider civil liberty issues. I suspect they are in part voting for lockdowns under the protection of "the science" but know its damaging to the Cons but as a member do you think backbenchers in T3 areas also get rebellious? If lockdown is working, how come deaths haven't stopped. There is a lags (others have mentioned it) between infection->symptoms->hospitalisation->death in the worse cases. The trouble with the infection figures is they are affected by how many tests are done which is increasing, and the deaths lag by 3~4 weeks (depending on who you ask). The deaths aren't flawless numbers but more definitive, if late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 If the gov say they want a 1 month lockdown then afterwards fiddle the tier system to extend it without debate and vote is the issue for me, not so much the time vs infection levels itself but the slight-of-hand exit strategy. It will mean people think the Gov will just keep rolling it on and on anyway and it risks losing peoples stretched goodwill whatever criteria they use. Exactly, if they has said the lockdown will continue until infections are down to X per 100,000 there would have been no need to keep changing their story and we might have had better compliance with the rules. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainb Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 These UK lockdowns are (again) too late and too soft and for far too long. Centralised private sector Test Track n Trace is not effective. Hence, more soft lockdowns will continue to be applied to cap the infection rate whilst being very economically destructive. A further demonstration that the Tory incompetence and dogma never changes. Meh test and trace hasn't worked anywhere in the prime covid northern hemisphere as in the part with seasons. If they can't get it to work in Germany.. Also logically if 80% of people contacted don't isolate effectiveness is pretty much irrelevant. 100% contact tracing effectiveness, which you would never get, would have very limited impact on transmission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 If the gov say they want a 1 month lockdown then afterwards fiddle the tier system to extend it without debate and vote is the issue for me, not so much the time vs infection levels itself but the slight-of-hand exit strategy. It will mean people think the Gov will just keep rolling it on and on anyway and it risks losing peoples stretched goodwill whatever criteria they use. EVERYTHING is an issue for you and your ilk. God forbid you delicate little anti-mask wallflowers ever have to live through years of war. A temporary restriction on your freedoms and it's all wailing we hear from your side... 'But it's my wwights and wwiberties...." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 (edited) EVERYTHING is an issue for you and your ilk. God forbid you delicate little anti-mask wallflowers ever have to live through years of war. A temporary restriction on your freedoms and it's all wailing we hear from your side... 'But it's my wwights and wwiberties...." And everything with you is issues revolves around bladder control issues! Accusing others wont hide the deep truth of that obsession - youre secret is safe with us and your Dom/Madame😉 This is not a wartime situation by any measure, and as I always said, one way tickets to HongKong are cheap right now and there will plenty of spare properties spare after either the locals immigrate here or 'go missing' in education camps if thats the world you dream of. Edited November 30, 2020 by nightowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arpeggio Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Yeah clearly too make records here of unapproved 'wrong thoughts' happening.🤔 If so, what guarantees are there for the person behind it and their descendants when they are no longer needed? (A.I. becomes better at writing itself than humans, or any part of the work done by humans can be replaced). A promise put to the test when you are no longer needed is not a good insurance policy, you have no leverage. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/03/pali-hungin-doctors-technology-ai-medics-role-vital All to be replaced, eventually. New study on HCQ... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920304258 “Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset using triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low-dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly fewer hospitalisations.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arpeggio Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 EVERYTHING is an issue for you and your ilk. God forbid you delicate little anti-mask wallflowers ever have to live through years of war. A temporary restriction on your freedoms and it's all wailing we hear from your side... 'But it's my wwights and wwiberties...." I have, including being held in captive and tortured. You have to accept the reality that you might die, turn off all your emotions and deal with it entirely pragmatically. Run away from loved ones who are getting killed in the knowledge that if you hang around you will also die. If you get scared you lose it. I see that you are afraid of a virus with a 99.9% survival rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightowl Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I have, including being held in captive and tortured. You have to accept the reality that you might die, turn off all your emotions and deal with it entirely pragmatically. Run away from loved ones who are getting killed in the knowledge that if you hang around you will also die. If you get scared you lose it. I see that you are afraid of a virus with a 99.9% survival rate. That experience puts Covid in persepective. Im sure many of the those so scared by Covid here are also afraid to go back the old normal because they werent enjoying nor coping with it well - Its not so much they want to be locked down but want everyone else reduced to that same level. Seeing others try to carry on as best they can (with control of their bladders) when faced with something with a 99.9% survival rate rubs salt into that wound and creates resentment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Bed-wetting anti-masker gets his karma. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Bed-wetting anti-masker gets his karma. I’d count him as collateral damage. Bit of a porker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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