Coronavirus - potential Black Swan?

[Bob8]

 

It seems the covid-19 has been circulating longer than appreciated. Remember the Chinese only owned up to a problem when there was clearly visible that a respiratory infection had over whelmed health care in Wuhan.

There is also the possibility that impact in South East Asia has been limited due to exposure from similar coronaviruses. It is noticeable that the impact in Singapore was not felt amongst the locals but amongst immigrant workers. 

It still seems a lot like guess work.

[Arpeggio]

 

What second wave? 

Interesting chart. Does the proportion between deaths and ICU now seem wider when compared to blue line ICU? Hopefully. Maybe low hanging fruit was at play too?

Also the initial panic and "time to sh*t your pants" narrative of March / April would have contributed. Some going to hospital were ill from a state of sheer panic. If you are ill from a virus and in that state this won't help at all.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Arpeggio

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

 

 

I sometimes wonder if there's another reason for the nostrils pointing downward (apart from rain etc.). With the guy in that clip the exhalation is going mostly up and to the sides a bit, therefore spreading around in the air for the next lucky person to pass, taking longer to sink to the floor.

Breathing through the nose, it will go down towards the floor and if you are walking forwards absorbed into your clothing, which isn't where people normally breath as they don't put their head on your chest and start inhaling unless they are feeling really saucy.

There's also the issue of bacteria in certain parts of our body that would kill us if on other parts, such as strep. Re-breathing expelled air, interesting.

I know you said other reasons, but also definitely swimming too. It has been suggest the reason humans are largely hairless compared to apes is that it was a useful adaptation for swimming and catching sea food.

As we evolved, fishing probably also helped our move north, as reduced sunlight when our ancestors had darker skin would have caused rickets and other vulnerabilities (eg Coronaviruses). Fish would have been an excellent source of vitamin D.

 

[Arpeggio]

 

I know you said other reasons, but also definitely swimming too. It has been suggest the reason humans are largely hairless compared to apes is that it was a useful adaptation for swimming and catching sea food.

Swimming of course! Wonder when we started doing this. It would be hard to swim with hair, I went swimming once wearing a pair of jeans which could be a bit like that. Definitely not easy swimming in your full school uniform either if you tried that.

Another theory I read about being hairless was along the lines of evolution too. As our intelligence became greater, the desire to have sex as part of a relatively primitive life was diluted by other curiosities. In order to prevent us from wondering ourselves into population decline our hair fell off and we had to wear clothes to according to whatever the outside temperature. Now we potentially had various states of appearance rather than just hair all over. We were clothed, not clothed and anything in between.

With a hallmark of intelligence being curiosity, this brought the attentions of our increasingly intelligent minds back into being sexually interest in each other.......and men have roamed the earth wondering about tits ever since.

 

 

As we evolved, fishing probably also helped our move north, as reduced sunlight when our ancestors had darker skin would have caused rickets and other vulnerabilities (eg Coronaviruses). Fish would have been an excellent source of vitamin D.

Very likely. Japan have a fishy diet, which is interesting given their experience with Comorbid19.

[Arpeggio]

 

Not a good idea spreading the bacterial fauna from your mouth, noise, throat, gut and lungs to your face. 

 

Like a petri dish over the mouth. Now let's zoom in with a microscope.

Demodex mites

That and more will LOVE that environment!

Even worse it's not just an environment on your skin surface, this is going in and out of the lungs from the contained air breathed. I've got a foreboding feeling about where this will lead to (and they will call it COVID19 of course).

I've never worn a mask for more than 30 minutes (e.g. sandpapering). I feel concerned for people who are told they have to wear a mask at work 8 or so hours a day.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Arpeggio

[slawek]

 

What second wave? 

You still don't understand exponential trends.  Below comparison of doubling roughly every 4 days and 8 days.

[swankyman]

 

You still don't understand exponential trends.  Below comparison of doubling roughly every 4 days and 8 days.

Ok. The problem with saying everything is an exponential is that lots of growth trends kinda look like that initially.

Example here's a plot I whipped up of the UK PCR capacity

I converted the y axis to log 😉

OMG the initial increase is exponential, as shown by the linear upwards trend. Is that true? Does that have any actual meaning or predictive powers?

Notice,if you zoom in towards September, it's exponential again.

[swankyman]

 

Ok. The problem with saying everything is an exponential is that lots of growth trends kinda look like that initially.

Example here's a plot I whipped up of the UK PCR capacity

I converted the y axis to log 😉

OMG the initial increase is exponential, as shown by the linear upwards trend. Is that true? Does that have any actual meaning or predictive powers?

Notice,if you zoom in towards September, it's exponential again.

The trend is your friend until one day he just blanks you and walks straight past. And all this time he's been sleeping with your girlfriend and having pot shots at your mum too.

[Arpeggio]

C19 IFR = 0.05%

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

"The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic."

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Arpeggio

[swankyman]

 

C19 IFR = 0.05%

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

"The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic."

Don't worry, it'll be back as soon as all the measures are finished. 

The UK doesn't immunise for chickenpox/shingles, relying instead on infected children giving adults immune systems a natural booster. That's mostly gone now.

Is shingles going to have its day in the sun now.

Nasty

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by swankyman

[The Preacherman]

 

Ok. The problem with saying everything is an exponential is that lots of growth trends kinda look like that initially.

Example here's a plot I whipped up of the UK PCR capacity

I converted the y axis to log 😉

OMG the initial increase is exponential, as shown by the linear upwards trend. Is that true? Does that have any actual meaning or predictive powers?

Notice,if you zoom in towards September, it's exponential again.

Thanks for your eloquent takedown.

[swankyman]

I love this article about polio epidemics in 20th century

https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/medicine/polio-20th-century-epidemic

 

A POLIO EPIDEMIC IN NEW YORK CITY

On Saturday 17 June 1916, a polio epidemic was officially declared in the Brooklyn area of New York. The authorities responded aggressively to control the spread of the disease.

Every day the newspapers published the names and addresses of people identified with the disease. Placards were nailed to their doors and their families were quarantined.

...

But the unforeseen consequence of better hygiene and sanitation at the end of the 1800s was that babies in clean surroundings  stopped encountering the infection while they still had maternal immunity.

So they failed to develop their own long-term immunity and were not protected when they encountered the disease later in life. And exposure to polio in late childhood or as an adult, was more likely to develop to the second, more aggressive stage of the disease.

...

[MARTINX9]

 

They aren't stopping anyone driving in or out of London. I just arrived back from Yorkshire.

The tube in London was as busy as last Sunday despite the move to tier 2  - there aren’t any staff let alone police even bothering to ask people if they need to travel.

Maidstone of course is in tier 1 so why are they preventing anyone getting on a train - as travel is not discouraged even to London and certainly not to intermediate stations in Kent?

On what authority do the police act like that in a tier 1 area? 

[The Preacherman]

Bizarre from DHSC a game that purports to stop covid disinformation.

 

 

[The Preacherman]

 

I love this article about polio epidemics in 20th century

https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/medicine/polio-20th-century-epidemic

 

A POLIO EPIDEMIC IN NEW YORK CITY

On Saturday 17 June 1916, a polio epidemic was officially declared in the Brooklyn area of New York. The authorities responded aggressively to control the spread of the disease.

Every day the newspapers published the names and addresses of people identified with the disease. Placards were nailed to their doors and their families were quarantined.

...

But the unforeseen consequence of better hygiene and sanitation at the end of the 1800s was that babies in clean surroundings  stopped encountering the infection while they still had maternal immunity.

So they failed to develop their own long-term immunity and were not protected when they encountered the disease later in life. And exposure to polio in late childhood or as an adult, was more likely to develop to the second, more aggressive stage of the disease.

...

There is a similar story over peanut allergies. Concerned mothers were led to believe that consuming peanuts in pregnancy, when breastfeeding and during weaning would trigger a peanut allergy so that they avoided all exposure to them.

The opposite turned out to be true the evidence was that peanut allergy was linked to a lack of exposure to peanuts in the womb and as a baby. 

https://www.llli.org/peanut-allergy-2/

[The Preacherman]

[dances with sheeple]

 

Most infected do not know where they contracted the virus but you seem to know better. Yes? 🙄

Let me see....petrol pump when you are washing your hands twenty times a day and the pump attendant is probably spraying or wiping the pump with disinfectant ten times a day..........or busy pub when you are half pissed and breathing everyone`s droplets.........or someone you have contact with doing the same.........difficult one.

[swankyman]

 

There is a similar story over peanut allergies. Concerned mothers were led to believe that consuming peanuts in pregnancy, when breastfeeding and during weaning would trigger a peanut allergy so that they avoided all exposure to them.

The opposite turned out to be true the evidence was that peanut allergy was linked to a lack of exposure to peanuts in the womb and as a baby. 

https://www.llli.org/peanut-allergy-2/

I remember when my oldest was about 6 months, he wasn't drinking his milk well. We were encouraged by the midwife to start solids. The first food I gave him was peanut butter and avocado mashed with milk.

OMG my gf went mental. Totally mental over the peanuts. 'Hes going to die. He's definitely going to die' she screamed. It took me ages to persuade her otherwise. Lol.

Nuts are absolutely brilliant for nutrients. Banned at his school now, sweets and other rubbish fine though. Lol

Edited October 18, 2020 by swankyman

[Megadebt]

 

Bizarre from DHSC a game that purports to stop covid disinformation.

 

 

 

 All the disinformation you have helpfully pointed to us - thanks,  now lets have some answers and solutions finally from you, otherwise it is all hor air.

 My position has been clear throughout, you know who I am now from my you tube vlog - what's your solution?  no retweets or links just in your own words, have a go now.  no?

 You have posted reams on here ad-nauseum, but when your 'position' is scrutinised you seemingly have nothing to say in terms of strategy. 

 Not picking on you here Comrade Preacherski, but as the prominent poster here on this thread, now by dodging the one big question your bot-like input here is reduced just easy hook-a-duck commentary. 

 

 

COVID19 seems to have a very specific effect on the Chinese. It makes them lie down / or die lying down on public streets.

Having been 7 months now this phenomena has not been seen in any other country!

 

 

 

 These images and similar disturbed me too, I was wondering the same, like some rouge nation sponsored soft economic warfare,  but then just think  1/ Million events like someone dropping down dead in the street in front of you -  then factor over 1 billion population, many carrying smartphones.  My point is, irrespective of covid...  even ultra rare events are boringly common when there are over a billion permutations - per day.  Then add the minor detail of global epidemic into the equation...

 Arpeggio I know you do music - this 'phenomenon' of youtube Asian chid virtouso musicians ultimately is just a numbers game : one in a million talents is easy with a billion citizens, there's a million of them - literally.  

[Megadebt]

 

 

This is crap   toal spam   written by whom?  what reference?   any flat earth updates?

 

 See this?  my late Mother   Q.N   H.V.  SRN.     wrote the book. Someone who actually contributed to society . See the brainwashed fools wearing masks on the front cover. 

 I hope your Doctor mrs is not stupid enough to risk mask wearing in public.

[kzb]

 

You do love a nonsense conspiracy. 

My favourite is still Ipsos Mori. 

This one is rather more dangerous. The numbers above are or should I say were participants in the phase 2 trials. That is always the "safety" basis for it to go onto a much bigger phase 3 trial. You wouldnt role out to 30000 humans straight away right. (1)  

The AZ one phase 3 is 30000 people. Yes it doesn't fully complete till 2022 but the prelims in Dec are not "based around 50 people" that is just a lie (2). They are based on the full cohort which is in the 10000s across multiple continents. 

 

(1) But that is exactly what they are doing according to Kendrick.

(2)  Well how many is it based on then?  It cannot be based on the phase 3 trial results because they aim to start vaccinating people long before the phase 3 trial is completed.  I am not lying either, I am simply reporting what it says on Kendrick's blog.  There is no lie, I have fairly represented what he says.

Yes I liked that Ipsos Mori one too.  A company called They Die looks like it will be a major part of managing the vaccination programme.  You couldn't make it up.

 

[kzb]

 

C19 IFR = 0.05%

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

 

Did you actually read that link?

The 0.05% IFR is for under 70's.

Unfortunately the England IFR (<70 y.o.) is 0.27%.  Did you also notice that 20% of deaths in England were <70 years old?

[Megadebt]

 

Did you actually read that link?

The 0.05% IFR is for under 70's.

Unfortunately the England IFR (<70 y.o.) is 0.27%.  Did you also notice that 20% of deaths in England were <70 years old?

 Interestingly the news clip of a 95% reduction in Flu cases, also seen elsewhere around the world recently - for something that has half the R value of CV19 and decades of data amassed takes some explanation - or perhaps vindicates 2020 virus containment policy.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

 

This is crap   toal spam   written by whom?  what reference?   any flat earth updates?

 

 See this?  my late Mother   Q.N   H.V.  SRN.     wrote the book. Someone who actually contributed to society . See the brainwashed fools wearing masks on the front cover. 

 I hope your Doctor mrs is not stupid enough to risk mask wearing in public.

He doesn't have a doctor wife. They wouldn't be so stupid.

[kzb]

 

 Interestingly the news clip of a 95% reduction in Flu cases, also seen elsewhere around the world recently - for something that has half the R value of CV19 and decades of data amassed takes some explanation - or perhaps vindicates 2020 virus containment policy.

It was predicted on this very thread by myself, many months ago.  Eradication of CV by social distancing will also eradicate colds, flu, and a good many other infectious diseases.  Stands to reason.