Impact of a General Election - could the UK survive a shackled Corbyn?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

I've been looking at the Electoral Calculus website which is a fairly good predictor of General Election seat outcomes. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Anyway, the broad outcome would seem to be Labour with most seats, but about 70 seats short of a majority with too few SNP to form some sort of leftist coalition. The Lib Dems would therefore need to be involved for any working majority to take place. 

Could such a government actually be functional?  What would happen to the economy?  I assume Corbyn would hold back on the most leftist ideas. 

The Tories would lose 1/3 of their seats and couldn't cobble a DUP/Brexit Party coalition together to stay in power. 

The only amusing thing about this is that despite myself being a Tory member (even though I am in total disagreement with most of their current approach) I could have the fun of seeing Boris being the UK's shortest serving PM in history. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

I also just spotted this article, looks like Oct 31st is now off the cards for Boris: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/19/brussels-to-offer-boris-johnson-extension-on-no-deal-brexit

I understand from a few sources I have that he has pretty much already agreed to this. He may well be the man who can actually call off Brexit! 

 

 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[LetsBuild]

4 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I also just spotted this article, looks like Oct 31st is now off the cards for Boris: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/19/brussels-to-offer-boris-johnson-extension-on-no-deal-brexit

I understand from a few sources I have that he has pretty much already agreed to this. He may well be the man who can actually call off Brexit! 

 

 

If your second post has any truth to it then you don’t need to worry about the first post as the Brexit party will gain a functioning majority ?

[winkie]

Actually......I have always said the decision as to whether we leave or stay in the EU should have always been decided by a general election.....who is elected by what is in their election manifesto......not by referendums .......bring it on.?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

16 minutes ago, winkie said:

Actually......I have always said the decision as to whether we leave or stay in the EU should have always been decided by a general election.....who is elected by what is in their election manifesto......not by referendums .......bring it on.?

There is usually a certain clarity to a GE result, though in this case perhaps not. 

Half the point of the Boris post was to show what a selfserving lot politicians can be. So in the opposite case, despite Lib Dem, Lab and SNP denials of a coalition, I do wonder if that is what we'd end up electing. 

The Brexit Party plus Conservatives will be too small to take power. So would a Lib/Lab/SNP mashup neuter the worst excess of Corbyn?  Perhaps there might even be a deal to remove Corbyn in order to allow a formation of a majority. 

Could that allow the UK function correctly? Or would it be a socialist hell hole? 

 

[Dorkins]

No chance of Boris calling an early GE, he will remember what happened to May at the last one. He might have a GE called for him by the Commons if he actually tries to go for a no deal Brexit, which is why he won't try to go for a no deal Brexit.

[winkie]

6 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

There is usually a certain clarity to a GE result, though in this case perhaps not. 

Half the point of the Boris post was to show what a selfserving lot politicians can be. So in the opposite case, despite Lib Dem, Lab and SNP denials of a coalition, I do wonder if that is what we'd end up electing. 

The Brexit Party plus Conservatives will be too small to take power. So would a Lib/Lab/SNP mashup neuter the worst excess of Corbyn?  Perhaps there might even be a deal to remove Corbyn in order to allow a formation of a majority. 

Could that allow the UK function correctly? Or would it be a socialist hell hole? 

 

Is a bit of a mess at the moment.......I do think something good will come out of something not so good, what has been going on has opened many people's eyes as to how politics works and how dirty it can be....... some sort of coalition would not be a bad thing it helps counteract polarisation, huge unbalances....if only more politicians would vote on what they really think would be best for the country, they have all the information to make the correct informed decisions, not voting for their own Interests, own job or next job.?

[zugzwang]

54 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

There is usually a certain clarity to a GE result, though in this case perhaps not. 

Half the point of the Boris post was to show what a selfserving lot politicians can be. So in the opposite case, despite Lib Dem, Lab and SNP denials of a coalition, I do wonder if that is what we'd end up electing. 

The Brexit Party plus Conservatives will be too small to take power. So would a Lib/Lab/SNP mashup neuter the worst excess of Corbyn?  Perhaps there might even be a deal to remove Corbyn in order to allow a formation of a majority. 

Could that allow the UK function correctly? Or would it be a socialist hell hole? 

 

You're very confused. The UK economy has been on life support for a decade now. It's only socialism that's allowed it to function at all. Without that support the UK would have collapsed into national bankruptcy years ago, something it still threatens to do since the underlying structural faults that undermined it in 2008 have merely been papered over and not fixed. The Labour Party has a visionary and exciting manifesto to repair and refit UK for the twenty-first century, beginning with a nationwide program of general needs social housing.

[Kosmin]

9 hours ago, Dorkins said:

No chance of Boris calling an early GE, he will remember what happened to May at the last one. He might have a GE called for him by the Commons if he actually tries to go for a no deal Brexit, which is why he won't try to go for a no deal Brexit.

There isn't time to renegotiate, so he would have to seek an extension. Maybe the Tory Leaves would force an election if he tried to do that and he'd certainly make himself very unpopular with his core supporters. It seems it might be best for Johnson to try to leave with no deal, and then in the election that follows campaign on keeping out of Parliament the MPs who blocked no deal.

[Fishfinger]

55 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 The Labour Party has a visionary and exciting manifesto to repair and refit UK for the twenty-first century, beginning with a nationwide program of general needs social housing.

With who's money or are you taking the pee?

[dugsbody]

16 minutes ago, Fishfinger said:

With who's money or are you taking the pee?

The money we currently already pay to private landlords through housing benefit.

[Dorkins]

59 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

There isn't time to renegotiate, so he would have to seek an extension. Maybe the Tory Leaves would force an election if he tried to do that and he'd certainly make himself very unpopular with his core supporters. It seems it might be best for Johnson to try to leave with no deal, and then in the election that follows campaign on keeping out of Parliament the MPs who blocked no deal.

This would be taking the Tory civil war up a notch in the middle of a general election campaign, not the sort of thing that makes voters want to put your party into power (the 28% of voters who want WTO aside).

[Kosmin]

8 hours ago, Dorkins said:

This would be taking the Tory civil war up a notch in the middle of a general election campaign, not the sort of thing that makes voters want to put your party into power (the 28% of voters who want WTO aside).

Maybe a Tory-Brexit coalition could form a government. This may be the only chance of Brexit they get and if they fail to leave they may do badly in the next general election. 

[Captain Kirk]

1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

You're very confused. The UK economy has been on life support for a decade now. It's only socialism that's allowed it to function at all. Without that support the UK would have collapsed into national bankruptcy years ago, something it still threatens to do since the underlying structural faults that undermined it in 2008 have merely been papered over and not fixed. The Labour Party has a visionary and exciting manifesto to repair and refit UK for the twenty-first century, beginning with a nationwide program of general needs social housing.

Corbyn and Brexit are a continuation of the 2008 crisis. The problem is, TPTB are in denial because they think they've fixed everything and everyone can now move on with neoliberalism and globalism. In reality, neoliberalism and globalism are dead, and the people are trying to work out where we go from here. Different developed countries are at a different stages, with the UK and US probably ahead of others.

[nothernsoul]

Even WITH a working majority a corbyn government is shackled. It would have to deal with hostile forces including the majority of the Parliamentary Labour Party, virtually the whole press including liberal Guardian, Independent and BBC, the civil service and the army, powerful business interests,  plus pressure from Washington. 

[dougless]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

The money we currently already pay to private landlords through housing benefit.

Quite; apparently its doubled in the last five years - well done Tories.

[zilly]

5 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

There is usually a certain clarity to a GE result, though in this case perhaps not. 

Half the point of the Boris post was to show what a selfserving lot politicians can be. So in the opposite case, despite Lib Dem, Lab and SNP denials of a coalition, I do wonder if that is what we'd end up electing. 

The Brexit Party plus Conservatives will be too small to take power. So would a Lib/Lab/SNP mashup neuter the worst excess of Corbyn?  Perhaps there might even be a deal to remove Corbyn in order to allow a formation of a majority. 

Could that allow the UK function correctly? Or would it be a socialist hell hole? 

 

The worst excesses? - what could possibly be worse than having to create hundreds of billions of pounds to hand over to deregulated casino bankers..?

We have a socialist hellhole - just one in which the social capital 'trickles up' to bail out, subsidise and guarantee the losses of private businesses. Socialism for the wealthy (ref: Jaguar Land Rover for example).

One of the major obstacles to moving back to functioning social democracy is getting people to see that the system they have lived under for the last 40 years is the radical one - it has produced yawning wealth and income gap last seen a century ago - as it was specifically designed to do. It has hollowed out our manufacturing base and replaced it with debt-fuelled asset bubbles.

It's the reason this website exists.

What about the trajectory we're on WITHOUT radical change?

[stuckinlimbo]

The Labour plans for land reforms are available here: https://landforthemany.uk/

[zugzwang]

3 hours ago, Captain Kirk said:

Corbyn and Brexit are a continuation of the 2008 crisis. The problem is, TPTB are in denial because they think they've fixed everything and everyone can now move on with neoliberalism and globalism. In reality, neoliberalism and globalism are dead, and the people are trying to work out where we go from here. Different developed countries are at a different stages, with the UK and US probably ahead of others.

Boris Johnson is a neoliberal, globalist Europhile. Jeremy Corbyn isn't.

Nothing has been fixed. The UK private sector economy is still drowning in debt, even after ten years of emergency interest rates.

 

[zugzwang]

4 hours ago, Fishfinger said:

With who's money or are you taking the pee?

The UK govt can borrow in unlimited quantities at almost zero cost. It must to continue to do so, holding up economic activity and employment in the economy while the private sector deleverages in an orderly fashion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory

 

 

[Captain Kirk]

8 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Boris Johnson is a neoliberal, globalist Europhile. Jeremy Corbyn isn't.

I don't care for either.

8 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Nothing has been fixed. The UK private sector economy is still drowning in debt, even after ten years of emergency interest rates.

Can't argue with that.

[byron78]

I've got private healthcare (except for my dentist). 

Pity anyone who doesn't this next 10 years. Suspect Brexit might force us to get rid of drug price fixing laws (so we see a lot of meds reach US prices). 

You lot can moan about the state all you want, but the free market for medicine isn't particularly free and will end up being VERY expensive for grunts without some socialism/state control. 

Actually I'm old enough to know that applies to housing as well. Worst thing people ever did in this country was get rid of mass state building/social housing. 

We've got private house building cartels and land banking now. Which is fine for me at 80 as I've quite a bit of land, but anyone under 40...  frankly I'll be amazed if a lot of folk don't shift left this next decade. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by byron78

[nightowl]

Surely Boris (or Hunt even) can't call an early election without 2/3rds of MPs agreement....how many Lab or Con MPs are going to risk their seat being lost to LibDems or TBP when it comes to the crunch?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

15 minutes ago, nightowl said:

Surely Boris (or Hunt even) can't call an early election without 2/3rds of MPs agreement....how many Lab or Con MPs are going to risk their seat being lost to LibDems or TBP when it comes to the crunch?

I think there is still a convention if a government doesn't form. 

[Fromage Frais]

6 hours ago, Kosmin said:

There isn't time to renegotiate, so he would have to seek an extension. Maybe the Tory Leaves would force an election if he tried to do that and he'd certainly make himself very unpopular with his core supporters. It seems it might be best for Johnson to try to leave with no deal, and then in the election that follows campaign on keeping out of Parliament the MPs who blocked no deal.

This is the only option if no deal or a last minute deal etc.

Boris is only going to win due to Authenticity ie he will go for it any deviation and he is ******ed.  Does he want money or a statue parliament is full of slick bullshitters who flap at the smallest gust.  Rightly or wrongly if he wants fame he has to stay the course and roll the dice.

The plan must be go gangbusters and then whomever steps in the way is an "enemy of the people" etc etc get brutal.

Then if there are enough of these aka "traitors" then a rabble rousing speech where the dark forces of the deep state/eu/anti democracy are conniving to undermine the sovereignty of the British people etc etc.....I must therefore ask you to allow me to purge parliament of them etc etc

Then a non competition agreement with the Brexit Party (******ed if not in place)

Election

There has to be an election whilst Corbyn is in place.

If he does not do the above then his power will evaporate very quickly and he wont last till this time next year.