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House Price Crash Forum


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About nothernsoul

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  1. The debt that flowed into the western economies in late 1990s, and eventually pushed up asset prices, served a purpose. It was needed to passify western voters, to maintain a standard of living they had become accustomed to, as the economy became globalised and their real earnings stagnated.
  2. Andy Burnham isn't a good choice. It is easy to be revisionist and assume that it was mental illness that made labour members overwhelmingly choose corbyn over him. Fact was Burnham was uninspiring in a very weak field which led members to vote for who they liked best, as they saw none of them as good enough to beat the tories. If a robin cooke or Barbara Castle had been running they would have romped home. What has burnham done as mayor of manchester anyway? Told the government that they wernt offering manchester enough money, only to receive less? Whoever is next labour leader will not
  3. For Conservative supporters this must seem great. But I would temper the enthusiasm. The reason the population have embraced the conservatives is the same reason for SNP success, Nationalism and throwing around money. All those people in Hartlepool or Barrow wouldnt be so keen on a Thatcherite wanting to cut the tax credits they or their children receive. There is now no fiscally responsible opposition to the money taps. A Labour party would never be in a position to oppose this anyway. The right wing press and Thinktanks have got on board with Boris Johnson, that any genuine free marke
  4. There is only one real "weapon of mass destruction" (a deliberately invented term. And that is nuclear.
  5. Two things to take out of this. At todays prices historically average 5 percent mortgage rates are a killer. Remember my father saying mortgage rates nearly did him in during the 90s, but they were over 10 percent then. Obvious cheap money is by far the primary factor in preventing a correction. Secondly, anyone with mortgage debt is now unconditionally considered a victim. We arnt talking about poor families borrowing 200 quid from a loan shark to buy winter clothes for the kids here. These are individuals who willingly borrowed several hundred thousand pounds from high street banks,
  6. This whole thing terrifies me now. It has gone beyond just bailing out the banks. It is using means that would otherwise be considered extraordinary to keep an unsustainable system going, not just in the interests of the rich, but fear of a revolt from the homeowning populace. Social Justice League is correct, Sunak would rather pay peoples mortgages directly than see a house price crash. To reapply slavoj zizeks quote"it is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism", is it now easier to imagine the end of the world than a house price crash?
  7. Sorry, correction, MEDIAN uk income is just over 30k.
  8. Unless I am missing something, the manner in which the salaries are categorised isnt related to UK statistics. Mean average income is just over 30k. Only 25 percent of population earns over 50k. Surely (even by western standards) over 75 percent of uk population cannot be categorised as living in poverty? The model puts 80k in the middle of the middle. Statistically, earning this amount would put a person in the top 5 percent of uk earners.
  9. New Labour was to blame for a house price bubble but the conservatives since 2010 have been far worse for one simple reason. Labour conveniently let the housing market run too hot for too long,during economic good times. If we are being generous, you could conclude they made excuses to themselves, it is easy to believe good times will last forever, until disaster struck with the financial crisis. They were guilty of not doing things (raising interest rates earlier, building social housing, introducing policies to curb buy to let) rather than doing things. However, the conservatives are n
  10. Risk for most humans isnt based on mathematical probability. It is based on fear, real or imagined. Older generations feared debt, living beyond ones means, or being without savings, as they had experienced( or been cautioned by parents about) the terrible consequences. The financial crisis and this current crisis should really have taught this lesson to people today. Except the government stepped in with unprecedented stimulus, because the harsh lesson would have seen them voted out of office. The economic system also relies on people taking on debt, so they dont want individuals thinking to
  11. Studies have revealed that people considered physically attractive earn more money than those with equivalent qualifications in the same profession,even those professions where physical appearance should be irrelevant to job performance. The problem we have now is a society which is outwardly "liberal" and pays lip service to progressive values, often to a stupid extent. But deep down the system has become more individualistic and dog eat dog, people have had to commoditise themselves completely to succeed. It is sort of accepted now that using any means possible, including using sexuali
  12. The problem is based around the whole concept of the housing ladder itself. Instead of seeing a house as somewhere to live and being satisfied if it fulfils your needs, seeing houses as speculative assets, or moving up the social ladder, which both policy and convention encourages in Britain. There is an old man in his 80s who lives on my road, a former industrial electrician. He told me he bought the house, a two up, two down in the 60s and never moved because he and his late wife had always been happy there. The house is immaculately maintained and puts mine to shame. His two adult son
  13. This really is the worst, in terms of pure reckless,cynicism from any government. New Labour were bad, but at least the financial crisis hadnt happened so there could be some kind of excuse for( politically convenient) ignorance. I understand governments operate in the real world, and a housing crash with repossessions isnt going to get anybody elected. But surely ultra low rates are more than enough? Billions spent on these other props is unprecedented and isn't going to end well. Something truly terrible has happened to Britain, when a houseprice correction has become a political impos
  14. 1945 up to 1979 was the postwar settlement, which came about as a result of a generation experiencing hardship during the 1930s, the war necessitating central planning and rebuilding, the threat of communism. This included state run industries, higher taxation, acceptance of unions and commitment to maintaining low levels of unemployment. All political parties accepted this and it worked well until problems in the 1970s. This was followed by a new settlement in 1979 which gradually eroded what came before. A key part of this was the destroying of union power and ultimately the working cla
  15. Mark Blyth's analysis, which I agree with is capitalism between 1945 and late 1970s, nation state based,higher taxes, strong unions with a relationship with governments who could demand pay rises, commitment to full employment. Worked for decades until ran into problems because of internal contradictions. System encouraged inflation and wage demands, capitalist couldn't generate sufficient profits to invest and grow. Superceded in late 1970s by neo liberalism. Globalised economies, unions crushed, outsourcing of state activities, offshoring, lower taxes. Worked for decades, low inflati
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