Panda Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just dropped off a cliff... Calling Dr Carney....1.2491 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Panda said: Just dropped off a cliff... Calling Dr Carney....1.2491 ...forget Carney ...this is a winner for exports ....and...  Germany: In any bear market, there is always one market that gets hit the hardest (after the dot com bust, for example, it was arguably the FTSE which took almost two decades to claw back its 1999 level). What will it be this time around? Take a look at Germany’s DAX. It has already been one of the most miserable performers of any developed country index. It is down 22pc from its 2018 peak, compared with a European average of 16pc.  Even worse, almost half its members are in some form of crisis, from the auto-makers to Deutsche Bank, to industrial giants such as Bayer. Its giant car manufacturers account for 30pc of the index, and the chemicals companies for another 20pc, and those are both very challenging industries.  Over this bear market, investors will come to realise how hollowed out and backward-looking the German industrial machine has become. A bear market is never much fun for anyone. It exposes a lot of flawed business models, over-hyped trends, and inept, incompetent management. Companies that were unsustainable get found out, banks that have over-stretched themselves run into trouble, and central banks have their nerve and skill tested along with ordinary investors. This one won’t be any different. It promises to be a rough ride – and it is only just starting. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/28/bear-market-coming-five-possible-victims/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget  Edited January 2, 2019 by South Lorne Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thirdwave Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 hours ago, Panda said: Just dropped off a cliff... Calling Dr Carney....1.2491 Flash crash due to algorithmic trading as in early 2017. AUD has also been hit. Should be back soon to 1.26-1.27 where it has been for many weeks now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurlerontheditch Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 All the major currencies went super volatile at the same time. Coincided with the Apple announcement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 hours ago, South Lorne said: ...forget Carney ...this is a winner for exports ....and...  Germany: In any bear market, there is always one market that gets hit the hardest (after the dot com bust, for example, it was arguably the FTSE which took almost two decades to claw back its 1999 level). What will it be this time around? Take a look at Germany’s DAX. It has already been one of the most miserable performers of any developed country index. It is down 22pc from its 2018 peak, compared with a European average of 16pc.  Even worse, almost half its members are in some form of crisis, from the auto-makers to Deutsche Bank, to industrial giants such as Bayer. Its giant car manufacturers account for 30pc of the index, and the chemicals companies for another 20pc, and those are both very challenging industries.  Over this bear market, investors will come to realise how hollowed out and backward-looking the German industrial machine has become. A bear market is never much fun for anyone. It exposes a lot of flawed business models, over-hyped trends, and inept, incompetent management. Companies that were unsustainable get found out, banks that have over-stretched themselves run into trouble, and central banks have their nerve and skill tested along with ordinary investors. This one won’t be any different. It promises to be a rough ride – and it is only just starting. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/28/bear-market-coming-five-possible-victims/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget  I agreee on Dax. Chemical companies had a very good run - longer than their typical cycle - and are now starting to suffer. 2019 will be a crunch for the industy and that's a good predictor of a recession. Chemical makers are raw material makers. I am in fact leaving the industry as I can see a massive consolidation incoming,  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebbles Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Mark Carney isn't interested, he doesn't care much for the pound he is here to keep rates low heck we will probably get more QE before we get an interest rate rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayward Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 hours ago, Pebbles said: Mark Carney isn't interested, he doesn't care much for the pound he is here to keep rates low heck we will probably get more QE before we get an interest rate rise. Someone should remind him what the role of the BoE is... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said: All the major currencies went super volatile at the same time. Coincided with the Apple announcement  Hmm . doesn't the Swiss National Bank hold a massive amount of Apple stock? Would have to wonder about the longer term impact on the Franc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 hours ago, South Lorne said: ...forget Carney ...this is a winner for exports ....and... Venezuela's economy must be booming then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 hours ago, South Lorne said: ...forget Carney ...this is a winner for exports ....and...  Germany: In any bear market, there is always one market that gets hit the hardest (after the dot com bust, for example, it was arguably the FTSE which took almost two decades to claw back its 1999 level). What will it be this time around? Take a look at Germany’s DAX. It has already been one of the most miserable performers of any developed country index. It is down 22pc from its 2018 peak, compared with a European average of 16pc.  Even worse, almost half its members are in some form of crisis, from the auto-makers to Deutsche Bank, to industrial giants such as Bayer. Its giant car manufacturers account for 30pc of the index, and the chemicals companies for another 20pc, and those are both very challenging industries.  Over this bear market, investors will come to realise how hollowed out and backward-looking the German industrial machine has become. A bear market is never much fun for anyone. It exposes a lot of flawed business models, over-hyped trends, and inept, incompetent management. Companies that were unsustainable get found out, banks that have over-stretched themselves run into trouble, and central banks have their nerve and skill tested along with ordinary investors. This one won’t be any different. It promises to be a rough ride – and it is only just starting. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/28/bear-market-coming-five-possible-victims/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget  From the author of the 'Death Force' thrillers, Matthew Lynn. A world in which stout-hearted special forces types are forever putting down dastardly insurgent threats to the British Empire Commonwealth of Nations from creamy Helmand province.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Captain Kirk said: Venezuela's economy must be booming then. ...hardly ...they follow Corbinista socialist style policies ...we can have a Venezuela economy if Corbyn gets in ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macca13 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, South Lorne said: ...hardly ...they follow Corbinista socialist style policies ...we can have a Venezuela economy if Corbyn gets in ... What a load of nonsense.. Germany, France.. etc have publicly run services.. Corrupt privatisation is killing this country.. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5078471/Britain-s-water-firms-flush-profits-tax-havens.html https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/mar/21/ow-lucrative--deals-go-to-firms-that-use-tax-havens Since the water companies were privatised they have racked up billions £’s in debts to pay shareholders and CEO’s 10 U.K. water companies wash their money through tax havens avoiding paying U.K. tax! Richard Branson’s Virgin Care is one of several companies working in the NHS that pays no U.K. tax despite receiving billions £’s in government funding.. The latest Ferry contract just given to a company with no ships was given to the Tory’s biggest donor.. Corruption is why privatisation must end! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, macca13 said: What a load of nonsense.. Germany, France.. etc have publicly run services.. Corrupt privatisation is killing this country.. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5078471/Britain-s-water-firms-flush-profits-tax-havens.html https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/mar/21/ow-lucrative--deals-go-to-firms-that-use-tax-havens Since the water companies were privatised they have racked up billions £’s in debts to pay shareholders and CEO’s 10 U.K. water companies wash their money through tax havens avoiding paying U.K. tax! Richard Branson’s Virgin Care is one of several companies working in the NHS that pays no U.K. tax despite receiving billions £’s in government funding.. The latest Ferry contract just given to a company with no ships was given to the Tory’s biggest donor.. Corruption is why privatisation must end! Too right. People who shout Venezuela are obviously happy to live in a corrupt country. Im not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, South Lorne said: ...hardly ...they follow Corbinista socialist style policies ...we can have a Venezuela economy if Corbyn gets in ... I don't get idea that debasing a currency is good for a country. It just isn't. It destroys purchasing power, savings, pensions, frightens off investment and makes everything more expensive. A strong currency goes hand in hand with a strong economy. It's never been the other way round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 35 minutes ago, Trump Invective said: Too right. People who shout Venezuela are obviously happy to live in a corrupt country. Im not. I was pointing out that Venezuela is a basket case because of inflation, just in case you thought I may have been touting it's economic and monetary policies as the way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, macca13 said: What a load of nonsense.. Germany, France.. etc have publicly run services.. Corrupt privatisation is killing this country.. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5078471/Britain-s-water-firms-flush-profits-tax-havens.html https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/mar/21/ow-lucrative--deals-go-to-firms-that-use-tax-havens Since the water companies were privatised they have racked up billions £’s in debts to pay shareholders and CEO’s 10 U.K. water companies wash their money through tax havens avoiding paying U.K. tax! Richard Branson’s Virgin Care is one of several companies working in the NHS that pays no U.K. tax despite receiving billions £’s in government funding.. The latest Ferry contract just given to a company with no ships was given to the Tory’s biggest donor.. Corruption is why privatisation must end! ...a few privitisations are hardly Corbyn's extreme ideas of socialism...think Venezuala whose leader he backed from the beginning and you are nearer the mark ...  31 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said: I don't get idea that debasing a currency is good for a country. It just isn't. It destroys purchasing power, savings, pensions, frightens off investment and makes everything more expensive. A strong currency goes hand in hand with a strong economy. It's never been the other way round. .....hardly a debased currency ...that is more likely if Corbyn becomes PM..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trump Invective Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 57 minutes ago, Captain Kirk said: I was pointing out that Venezuela is a basket case because of inflation, just in case you thought I may have been touting it's economic and monetary policies as the way to go. Ah sorry yes - noted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kirk Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, South Lorne said: ...a few privitisations are hardly Corbyn's extreme ideas of socialism...think Venezuala whose leader he backed from the beginning and you are nearer the mark ... Â .....hardly a debased currency ...that is more likely if Corbyn becomes PM..... Well I'm no fan of Corbyn. Being able to sell more due to a lower exchange rate just means having to work harder for the same purchasing power. It only benefits the importer not the exporter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Captain Kirk said: Well I'm no fan of Corbyn. Being able to sell more due to a lower exchange rate just means having to work harder for the same purchasing power. It only benefits the importer not the exporter. Ironically, Corbyn's probably the only chance the UK has of avoiding a Venezuelan-like sovereign default. Only he seems prepared to borrow and spend at a sufficient rate in the short-term to decisively lift the economy away from the Zero Lower Bound and crush the bubble of phantom equity in the housing market. The Tories will end up borrowing as much ultimately, but will do so in a grudging and reluctant fashion. In effect condemning the country to another decade of stratospherically unaffordable housing and miserly growth, even as the national debt climbs without limit and the threat of a run on sterling becomes ever more pronounced. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
24gray24 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 hours ago, zugzwang said: Ironically, Corbyn's probably the only chance the UK has of avoiding a Venezuelan-like sovereign default. Only he seems prepared to borrow and spend at a sufficient rate in the short-term to decisively lift the economy away from the Zero Lower Bound and crush the bubble of phantom equity in the housing market. The Tories will end up borrowing as much ultimately, but will do so in a grudging and reluctant fashion. In effect condemning the country to another decade of stratospherically unaffordable housing and miserly growth, even as the national debt climbs without limit and the threat of a run on sterling becomes ever more pronounced.  Doesn't that pretty well sum up labour: they think the solution to too much debt is to " borrow and spend " more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 16 hours ago, Captain Kirk said: I don't get idea that debasing a currency is good for a country. It just isn't. It destroys purchasing power, savings, pensions, frightens off investment and makes everything more expensive. A strong currency goes hand in hand with a strong economy. It's never been the other way round. Very true, the pound has been declining for years. In 1970 it was 2.4 USD (before we joined the EEC), in 1955 2.8 USD http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dougless Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 When I was a kid the term 'half a dollar' referred to 2 shillings and six pence.  This was a colloquial reference to when there were $4 to the £ which had been the historic norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 hours ago, 24gray24 said: Doesn't that pretty well sum up labour: they think the solution to too much debt is to " borrow and spend " more. Of course. While the private sector remains hopelessly underwater, what else should the govt do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 21 hours ago, South Lorne said: ...hardly ...they follow Corbinista socialist style policies ...we can have a Venezuela economy if Corbyn gets in ... What has that got to do with anything.....nothing to do with a specific political party, both have or promote having good policies that should benefit all, it is not the policies that are corrupt it is the people in the position of influence and power who can't help themselves but to gain from said polices, these types are in all walks of life including all political parties..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkG Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 15 hours ago, zugzwang said: While the private sector remains hopelessly underwater, what else should the govt do? Get out of the way? All that 'borrow and spend' will do is create more debt on the backs of a shrinking productive population, and more fake jobs that are reliant on ever-increasing debt. When the problem is too much easy credit and too much debt, the solution is not... more debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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