Decline in house prices starts to extend beyond London

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

Since the prices are based on the amount of credit banks are willing to issue, I guess credit is contracting?

Will be interesting looking at the BOE quarterly.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

26 minutes ago, winkie said:

.....worth consideration of keeping the older boiler they last for years very reliable pieces of kit.

A bit Off Topic. Agreed, got a very simple 1983 original boiler and tank with central heating system. Easy to fix and the ~20% less efficent gas usage far out ways the cost of replacing a newer more complicated boiler every 10yrs ;). Bad for the country's GDP though.

 

Edit: Expecting a stamp juty holiday whilst larger props are installed. If we don't see that then a much deeper correction is ON!

Edited August 11, 2017 by DarkHorseWaits-NoMore
typo's and details

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, winkie said:

That is the mistake, treating homes as investments.....sure it is right that they should not lose money 2% gain a year linked to inflation would be fair......then other investments would be better used including real business investments and long-term savings and pension investments...... hedging by diversification.

Edit to say, prices do need to fall down to a level where would have moved with inflation going back at least 20 years.....the housing market is top heavy, far too many new and wonderful fancy innovative schemes and so called helpful ways of owning but not owning one, just to make you think you do own one.....when probably never will.....new ways of renting.

For example if that where the case in a time of cheap money someone would borrow said cheap money and leverage up that 2% a year.

In a way its the perceived always rising nature of property that makes it ideal for booms and busts.

Stability creates instability and the more stability you try and create the more unstable you make it. 

capitalism would create miniture cycles of boom and bust with more dynamic lending rates as they reacted to perceived risks of lending to buy property.

This would keep everyone on their toes and the governments actions to try and smooth it out simply transmit the danger to people who did not wish the partake in it.

[juvenal]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

BINGO

Plus 1..

[stuckmojo]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Right move index versus land reg index.

 

if you're not offering 30% below the asking price then you are the greatest fool.

100,000 %agree 

[North London Rent Girl]

57 minutes ago, Bland Unsight said:

Just because you're on "the incline" doesn't mean you're necessarily in a position to go up it.

 

Shovel-throw skating, I've heard of that, it's going to be in the next winter olympics - it's in the throw of the shovel, you see, it's where you get your momentum. Why is that so funny? Can't stop laughing. I know, I know, should be looking at youtube instead. Ahem, right, what were you saying?

[Locke]

2 hours ago, winkie said:

That is the mistake, treating homes as investments.....sure it is right that they should not lose money 2% gain a year linked to inflation would be fair......then other investments would be better used including real business investments and long-term savings and pension investments...... hedging by diversification.

Edit to say, prices do need to fall down to a level where would have moved with inflation going back at least 20 years.....the housing market is top heavy, far too many new and wonderful fancy innovative schemes and so called helpful ways of owning but not owning one, just to make you think you do own one.....when probably never will.....new ways of renting.

Inflation runs at about 7% per year average. This means prices doubling every 10 years, which is in line with HPI

The level of theft by the kleptocrats in charge is astonishing and disgustingly evil. I would celebrate if them and their bloodlines were eradicated, but I don't hold out much hope.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

8 minutes ago, Locke said:

Inflation runs at about 7% per year average. This means prices doubling every 10 years, which is in line with HPI

 

Petrol down 5% this year.

Wages up 1% in 10 years,

You seem to be clever, work out what comes next

Edited August 11, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Gorseinonboy]

1 hour ago, Bland Unsight said:

Just because you're on "the incline" doesn't mean you're necessarily in a position to go up it.

 

I like it....

[Gorseinonboy]

Being on the incline means....you're right....you can go up or down....that's why I said it....

[winkie]

59 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

For example if that where the case in a time of cheap money someone would borrow said cheap money and leverage up that 2% a year.

In a way its the perceived always rising nature of property that makes it ideal for booms and busts.

Stability creates instability and the more stability you try and create the more unstable you make it. 

capitalism would create miniture cycles of boom and bust with more dynamic lending rates as they reacted to perceived risks of lending to buy property.

This would keep everyone on their toes and the governments actions to try and smooth it out simply transmit the danger to people who did not wish the partake in it.

Therein lies the problem the action of and ability to 'leverage up'.....in the days before or about the time of the 'big bang'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_(financial_markets)

It was not possible to withdraw equity as debt/credit or borrow against a residential home using it as security except to use for home improvements for that said home.....most certainly could not use to supplement income, spend in the shops use for holidays, cars or purchase a BTL etc.

The easiest way to pump credit into the system, the relatively new way of doing things thus creating more debt or available money to spend (inflation and increasing GDP) is to use property and the increase in the value of property to do that.......all the pieces of the puzzle are beginning to fall into place......the rest is history.....add it to the slate.

 

 

 

 

 

[Gorseinonboy]

So many members of this forum are anti making a profit. Isn't it what makes the world go round? A fair return is what all of us want surely?

[winkie]

15 minutes ago, Locke said:

Inflation runs at about 7% per year average. This means prices doubling every 10 years, which is in line with HPI

 

House real inflation has been more than that in certain places, far more than that in some places.....the lower the rates fell the higher the property got........low interest rates were only meant to be an emergency measure, must be on permanent emergency mode.......but everything is fine and dandy.....move along please, do your part in helping the economy, borrow some more pleaseee.

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, Gorseinonboy said:

So many members of this forum are anti making a MASSIVE profit...out of one of life's necessities. 

Corrected for more accuracy.

[disenfranchised]

2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

you cannot have something which positive yield as an investment while remaining a cheap commodity that provides good value utility and thus contributes to net living stands and wealth, its an economic impossibility. 

Nail > Head

[winkie]

13 minutes ago, Gorseinonboy said:

So many members of this forum are anti making a profit. Isn't it what makes the world go round? A fair return is what all of us want surely?

Start a profitable business is one way of making a profit......but sitting in a pile of bricks and expecting it to make a profit doing nothing then borrowing against it to spend, why everybody will want to do that....

Edited August 11, 2017 by winkie

[Tempus]

It's about affording a basic necessity based on an actual, average salary from actual work.

In large parts of the country real, normal work buys you NOTHING. You need family money or other assets. Lots of it. What average work will allow you to borrow won't buy even a studio flat. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1H_I-Hyu2c&feature=youtu.be&t=40m02s

And that above is using figures up to 2013. What happened to London and the South East since then is unprecedented. 

Edited August 11, 2017 by Tempus

[winkie]

3 minutes ago, Tempus said:

It's about affording a basic necessity based on an actual, average salary from actual work.

In large parts of the country real, normal work buys you NOTHING. You need family money or other assets. Lots of it. What average work will allow you to borrow won't buy even a studio flat. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1H_I-Hyu2c&feature=youtu.be&t=40m02s

 

Absolutely....growing inequality getting closer to home.....unbalanced and out of kilter....not what you know, or who you know or even how hard you work, but when, where and who you were born to.

[AdamoMucci]

Quite a lot of fail in this thread. Shows how pervasive the brain washing is. We all want a buoyant market? Really? Or.... just a little bit of HPI would be fair? Really? WTF are you lot on about? Yeah, just a little bit of laptop price inflation would be fair too... I'd be so rich right now. Just a little bit of toilet paper price inflation would be nice. I'd borrow money, stock up on it, and eat less.

The most desirable price of a home is ZERO. That implies land, energy, materials are unlimited and that we have robots to build them for us so we can spend our finite time as we wish. In an idea world, and a society we should be striving for, the cost of everything should head to zero. Yes, the physical world prevents that, but that is the ideal. It is never desirable for healthy consumption to be more difficult to achieve. How TF do people not understand this basic sh*t including people who have been on here for ever? F*cking unreal.

It is never ever desirable or fair to have property going up in COST. Yes, the f*ucking word is COST not value. Get that through your heads FFS.

[winkie]

Housing is free if you rent it and the rent is low enough comparable to local wages, so as to allow people to spend a bit more and invest surplus into something other than housing and growing debt......so as to save for the future to provide a retirement income enough that can still continue to pay the rent and have something to live on until death.

 

Edit to say:.....lower house prices = lower rents/yields.

Edited August 11, 2017 by winkie

[disenfranchised]

11 minutes ago, Gorseinonboy said:

So many members of this forum are anti making a profit. Isn't it what makes the world go round? A fair return is what all of us want surely?

What actually makes the world go round is productive endeavour that creates value... growing food, making cars - that sort of thing. 

Making a profit from hording assets that are made artificially scarce both by you hording them (landlords, developers) and the powers that be legislating to make it so (planning law, taxation etc...) adds no value to the world, it merely transfers wealth to the horder.

Many on HPC would be entirely happy to see houses make no profit or loss, and simply change hands for the same price forever (if maintained in the same condition) adjusted for inflation... after they next return to a fair and sensible price in the first place. That's what I regard as "fair return" on something that is one of life's essentials.

 

[ftb_fml]

Cashed FT link that avoids the paywall ;)

2 hours ago, 2buyornot2buy said:

Not just maintenance, modernisation. Folks own a big house built pre 1900. Easily spend 2k a year on maintenance. Just papering a room cost hundreds. Carpet hundreds again. When things go, they really go wrong. Then when you have to replace features, coving etc it's big money. 

Our family home is ancient (probably 17-1800s at a guess) and on a regular basis is reasonably frugal; however did sting us for £24k to be re-roofed a few years ago. That said I fully expect it to out-live most new-builds, and equally expect these to really become money pits after a few decades of use due to the abysmal standard of their construction.

Maintenance and modernisation are of course two very different things - one is a necessity, the other is, certainly in more recent times IMO, often un-necessary and undertaken for whimiscal reasons of fashion or taste. I think if you decorate the place well in a neutral / period correct manner with good quality supplies and decent appliances, there's no reason why it shouldn't go for decades without significant work.

Conversely,IMO there's a huge market for the service industries driven by idiots having a new bathroom or the living room re-decorated every three years, fuelled by cheap debt and egged on by delusions of wealth and the lifestyle dross on the telly and semi-mistaken assumption that it's adding value to their property.

People are so sold on the idea of paying a man to do everything for them now - a media-driven false class consciousness having tricked them into the mindset that fixing the guttering, painting the bedroom, fixing that leaky tap, keeping your house tidy or even cleaning your own bins is somehow beneath them.

There's an enormous industry built to serve these people, when in reality paying a bloke £500 to paint a room or two is a wholly un-necessary expense when you could do it yourself for the cost of the paint and a couple of weekends, or not even bother. When all the cheap money dries up IMO it's going to have a massive cascade effect on all these service industries that have come to rely on it.  

 

 

 

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, ftb_fml said:

<snip>

There's an enormous industry built to serve these people, when in reality paying a bloke £500 to paint a room or two is a wholly un-necessary expense when you could do it yourself for the cost of the paint and a couple of weekends, or not even bother. When all the cheap money dries up IMO it's going to have a massive cascade effect on all these service industries that have come to rely on it.  

 

That is the new way of doing things....pay to get someone other than yourself, friends or family to do it for you....to be encouraged.......don't care for your own children, grow or cook your own food or wash your own car work longer earn more to pay others to do it for you....keeps the money flowing, but own labour just as valuable and worth just as much.

[Habitationi Bulla]

3 minutes ago, winkie said:

That is the new way of doing things....pay to get someone other than yourself, friends or family to do it for you....to be encouraged.......don't care for your own children, grow or cook your own food or wash your own car work longer earn more to pay others to do it for you....keeps the money flowing, but own labour just as valuable and worth just as much.

Yes my mother pays a cleaner £30 every 2 weeks to clean an already clean house, £10 a month for a window cleaner who takes 5 minutes ... father 71 no pension, still working full time still not paid the mortgage off and just spent 3k getting the garden done.(will add value to the house) no it fkn wont!

The ultimate in financial illiteracy.

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, Habitationi Bulla said:

Yes my mother pays a cleaner £30 every 2 weeks to clean an already clean house, £10 a month for a window cleaner who takes 5 minutes ... father 71 no pension, still working full time still not paid the mortgage off and just spent 3k getting the garden done.(will add value to the house) no it fkn wont!

The ultimate in financial illiteracy.

Thank goodness, free country and all that, if people are able to make a choice they are free to make that choice, no right or wrong way their choice......the wider more worrying issue is when people are denied having choices.