Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About disenfranchised

  • Rank
    HPC Veteran

Recent Profile Visitors

1,848 profile views
  1. disenfranchised

    Boomer deaths = millennial joy

    The boomers who were unhealthy are already dying. My Mum went 3 years ago at 65 from a heart attack. My Dad has never smoked, never drinks to excess, has always exercised and never been obese, hopefully we will have him a lot longer. He has been doing some estate planning recently and read an article suggesting the average age of people doing so was late 70s - a serious refusal to face mortality! When it comes to "millenials joy", there will be a backlash. The disparity will simply ripple out by a generation as the boomers wealth is given to their kids in their 40s 50s and 60s and there is another evident generational wealth gap between them and generation Z. This time the false rhetoric employed by boomers defending how they "earned" their wealth will not be accepted. The interesting question is how Asia will influence this. Handing down wealth from generation to generation is seen as very natural in Asia, yet Asia is often better at taxing wealth at the point of spending rather than income at the point of earning.
  2. The desire to punch Blair in the face becomes very strong every time his smug mug appears on my screen.
  3. disenfranchised

    Household debt record highs

    Average number of people per household = 2.4 UK Population = 66.5m Car PCP outstanding = £58bn (2016) =£2100 per household outstanding on PCP That's a lot of other unsecured debt.
  4. disenfranchised

    Halifax January 2019

    I wonder if part of the discrepancy has to do with geographical coverage of the lender. If you took data from a London based small building society to build an indices, it would have been YOY negative already? Could also be down to targeting different market sectors. I'd much rather see negative, but the market looks about ready to pop.
  5. There's going to be civil unrest if the "solution" is more printing money and doubling the wealth of the richest 1% again. Likewise if this "whoever you vote for means more low skilled immigration as we must grow GDP in absolute terms even if means making you poorer and fracturing your community" situation continues. You can see the first glimmers of it with the Gillets Jaune in France. I'm a cynic and I don't believe in coincidences. In this country over the past decade, we've seen squatting domestic property criminalized (housing shortage, exploitation level rent, foreign "empty flat" cash dumping was expected, not a surprise that cropped up - imagine the effect on the Hong Kong property fair stuff Osborne was whoring if a few thousand empty flats were squatted by deadlocked charity shop attired commies?) and an incremental crackdown on both legitimate & violent dissent, from jailing people who stole bottles of fanta in the 2011 riots to jailing anti-fracking protesters and flagrant misuse of the law to charge asylum deportation protesters with an offense carrying a life term recently. It's going to kick off if there's a serious recession in the West, the "toolkit" to mitigate it is looking pretty bare. You'll know when the shit really hits the fan when the first European country has to declare some form of martial law or use the armed forces to maintain order. That may sound ridiculous, it just "doesn't happen in civilised countries" but beneath the veneer of control, we are only ever 5% of the population deciding to really kick off away from it happening.
  6. disenfranchised

    Nationwide Dec 18

    I put a spreadsheet together a while ago for working out price per square foot. I was doing it in a couple of ways, one based upon living space only, the other based on footprint. Most of the nicer older houses have a lower ratio of living space to total area as well as having larger rooms. New houses are just awful.
  7. It's being deliberately ignored, especially by Labour, because Boomers vote.
  8. disenfranchised

    Nationwide Dec 18

    Massive project in banking that has been going on for the past 5 years or more (I started working on it in 2013, did some more 2015-2017) to seperate the balance sheets of major UK banks between Retail activities & Investment and Corporate activities. In theory, if any of the banks become insolvent again, only the Retail side will be bailed out by the Goverbankment. Theoretically, the risk exposure of the country to our own banks is now relatively simple to understand. I have always felt a certain amount of "keepy uppy" was quietly inevitable until this was complete.
  9. disenfranchised

    Nationwide Dec 18

    Well, they managed it... U.K. Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013 (Commencement No. 12) brings into force, from January 1, 2019, those provisions of the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013 on ring-fencing that are not already in force, including the prohibition on ringfenced bodies to carry on excluded activities and provisions on group restructuring. Still up 0.5% YOY and the ringfence activity is done and dusted. I always said Jan 1st 2019 was the date they were aiming at and after that it may be 'allowed' to go... looks like they managed it. Income tax deadline for BTLers hits 31st Jan. Brexit may add noise either side of March, but we should be looking at YOY negative next month? I suspect that it's finally coming.
  10. About 10 minutes ago - was listening in the car, not sure of exact wording but Chiles basically issued a gentle slap down of a journo moaning about her flat not selling in West London, and then said something along the lines of some kind of big reset or crash looking inevitable and good for a load of people, with said journo then agreeing she would have to buy once she sold, so yeah maybe. Beeb on the case with message management, or is that too cynical?
  11. disenfranchised

    Diane Abbot for Prime minister

    I doubt it. I can't stand her because she is a hypocrite & plays the race card, just like that cockwomble David Lammy, who I also detest. They are both thick and survive by appeals to emotion that crumple under logical scrutiny as well, which doesn't help. I see both of them as candidates who may well not be in their current positions WITHOUT racism favouring achieving a certain quota. I don't detest other non-white politicians who don't behave like them in the slightest.
  12. disenfranchised

    Its Going to Be Biblical

    If England was an independent country it would have the highest population density of any major economy in the world. I didn't believe it until I did the maths myself.
  13. disenfranchised

    Yellow Vest Protests

    I took part in the fuel protests here years ago, I was on the blockade at Ellesmere Port. The issue was personal to us at the time and similar to the French one now. My partner's mother, who had a long term mental illness that although under control, needed us to go down to see her in rural north Shropshire regularly from Liverpool. We were students and both worked, fuel was a major component cost of our budget. Her mum also worked, and had a 150 miles a week drive to & from work. Soaring fuel costs negatively impacted our lives a great deal more than most, so we joined the protest. It was peaceful and friendly with Police. The Truckers who wouldn't cross the lines did it out of solidarity, not fear. I think the situation in France is much more akin to the Poll Tax protests here. That was revoked, and weakened Thatcher significantly, she was ousted not long afterwards.
  14. It's all a function of credit availability. Joint incomes in the 80s & 90s were assessed at a multiple of the larger single income, plus 1x the second income. Mortgage repayments were still similar with the higher interest rates. You could actually argue that with jobs & careers insecure in the long term now, ability to pay on current income with a degree of stress testing rates is more important than multiples.
  15. disenfranchised

    The House Price Crash has started ?

    It's wobbling, but it's not "crashing" until month on month falls burst through into year on year, and then get steeper IMO. Prices peaked in 1989 then slid down for a while, a deeper crash in 92, rallied & dropped again twice in 93/94 before bottoming in 1995. That's a 6 year bear market, so not sure what we should expect to see next. It doesn't follow that it has to be steep & sudden. Australia has been losing month on month for a year solid now in the main cities, but it's only down 5-6%.

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.