Halifax +1.7% MOM +6.5% YOY

[Gribble]

Seems from the comments on the DM article on this that many regard the Halifax figures as made up BS

[Si1]

19 minutes ago, Darby Ram said:

I think the forex part of the housing market is going to be the key. Most people don't look at anything except the headline HPI number, but if you hold non-sterling assets then the re-rating of the pound this year (and probable its continued decline) has outweighed everything else. A pretty cautious global tracker would have returned c20% last year in sterling terms, which makes housing look like a laggard.

Even without a nominal crash, I think that a long period of UK housing under-performing as an asset class is likely, and that will be how the wealth disappears without anyone really noticing.  

I think this is very likely. It also makes saving in UK cash accounts a bad way to accumulate wealth compared to said UK house prices.

[ingermany]

53 minutes ago, Darby Ram said:

I think the forex part of the housing market is going to be the key. Most people don't look at anything except the headline HPI number, but if you hold non-sterling assets then the re-rating of the pound this year (and probable its continued decline) has outweighed everything else. A pretty cautious global tracker would have returned c20% last year in sterling terms, which makes housing look like a laggard.

Even without a nominal crash, I think that a long period of UK housing under-performing as an asset class is likely, and that will be how the wealth disappears without anyone really noticing.  

Oh good. Will UK government give me a 240K interest free loan for 5 years so I can buy one of these global trackers and gather the profits? 

 

Thought not. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

36 minutes ago, Gribble said:

Seems from the comments on the DM article on this that many regard the Halifax figures as made up BS

How odd.

The lovely people of HPC dont even go to those extreme theorys.

I would bet they are not made up but something is clearly going on.

Maybe people rushing to beat another housing marklet deadline ( HTB2 this time ).

The HTB2 removal wil have some positive effect on prices, let hope a 30% drop

 

[Digsby]

I wouldn't call this BS - the Halifax have their methodology and I trust they are reporting the estimate that the methodology produces honestly. Whether it reflects reality is a different question.

The number of properties for sale on Rightmove in my search area (Somerset/Dorset) are increasing and prices are slightly more realistic (a relative term). Though it's a recent development, it's not consistent with a 1.7% monthly rise - that's a bubblicious increase, an insane amount given all the headwinds.

If it's true, it *has* to be the last wave of idiocy from BTLers getting in there while they can still borrow dangerous amounts ahead of the new underwriting standards taking effect this month. The report compares it to March 2016, which was the previous rush to buy to let. That were being stupid: If this is the next wave, then this lot are making the worst investment decisions of their lives.

If this is not the toppiest top in the history of toppy tops, then I might have to downgrade my assessment of myself from AA dreamer with a slight detachment from reality to AAA dreamer with no clue of where to even look for reality.

[Digsby]

40 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

How odd.

The lovely people of HPC dont even go to those extreme theorys.

I would bet they are not made up but something is clearly going on.

Maybe people rushing to beat another housing marklet deadline ( HTB2 this time ).

The HTB2 removal wil have some positive effect on prices, let hope a 30% drop

 

That's a fair point, there could have also (in addition to BTL) have been an HTB2 rush.

There are now no more deadlines in the pipeline that might create rushes to buy (except maybe September), so let's hope this is the last hurrah.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 minutes ago, Digsby said:

That's a fair point, there could have also (in addition to BTL) have been an HTB2 rush.

There are now no more deadlines in the pipeline that might create rushes to buy (except maybe September), so let's hope this is the last hurrah.

End of March....rush to sell.....

[rantnrave]

20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

End of March....rush to sell.....

Among the dozen or so BTLers who are aware they are due a hefty tax bill next April...

May have to wait until then for the penny to literally start dropping with the rest of them.

Edited January 9, 2017 by rantnrave

[nome]

6 hours ago, Nickos said:

FML. I'm going to throw in the towel and just enjoy life. Screw ambition.

Exactly what I'm already doing now, I refuse to work more than 20 hours/3 days a week, even though there's enough work in my place for me to 3x that number of hours and management constantly pleading with me to do overtime... there's just no point, the extra income still wouldn't be anywhere enough for me to add sufficiently to my current budget to be able to buy somewhere I'd be content living in,

[Digsby]

12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

End of March....rush to sell.....

You give them too much credence.

[ThePiltdownMan]

How long till LR price paid comes out and we get something more definitive?

[bluegnu]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Maybe people rushing to beat another housing marklet deadline ( HTB2 this time ).

The HTB2 removal wil have some positive effect on prices, let hope a 30% drop

 

Unfortunately, I don't think removal of HTB2 will have any effect. I believe the banks had pretty much withdrawn from it over the past few months by choice and now hardly any were actually accessing it, they are perfectly capable and confident to offer their own 90 - 95% LTV mortgages without any state guarantee.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 minutes ago, bluegnu said:

Unfortunately, I don't think removal of HTB2 will have any effect. I believe the banks had pretty much withdrawn from it over the past few months by choice and now hardly any were actually accessing it, they are perfectly capable and confident to offer their own 90 - 95% LTV mortgages without any state guarantee.

Banks, not accepting tax payer subsidies, doesnt sound right to me.

 

maybe no fecker wanted to take on the risk other than idiot BTLers.

 

I guess they are the only idiots still in the game...by a long way

[crashmonitor]

1 hour ago, Digsby said:

I wouldn't call this BS - the Halifax have their methodology and I trust they are reporting the estimate that the methodology produces honestly. Whether it reflects reality is a different question.

The number of properties for sale on Rightmove in my search area (Somerset/Dorset) are increasing and prices are slightly more realistic (a relative term). Though it's a recent development, it's not consistent with a 1.7% monthly rise - that's a bubblicious increase, an insane amount given all the headwinds.

If it's true, it *has* to be the last wave of idiocy from BTLers getting in there while they can still borrow dangerous amounts ahead of the new underwriting standards taking effect this month. The report compares it to March 2016, which was the previous rush to buy to let. That were being stupid: If this is the next wave, then this lot are making the worst investment decisions of their lives.

If this is not the toppiest top in the history of toppy tops, then I might have to downgrade my assessment of myself from AA dreamer with a slight detachment from reality to AAA dreamer with no clue of where to even look for reality.

I would say as regards stock the opposite has occurred in the N Midlands it's fallen fast and most stuff under 200k  has gone very quickly. May be I am a boiling frog but I am struggling to see any significant change in asking prices. I'd certainly notice if we had a fraction of the nonsense that had occurred further south, we haven't.

Whether prices only react when inventories hit crisis point, who knows.

After watching the carnage further south and seeing very little movement up north tbh I'd be surprised at this late stage if there were any significant price movements north of Nottingham. The ripple has had years to fan out, yet its got stuck in the S Midlands.

Edited January 9, 2017 by crashmonitor

[zugzwang]

24 minutes ago, bluegnu said:

Unfortunately, I don't think removal of HTB2 will have any effect. I believe the banks had pretty much withdrawn from it over the past few months by choice and now hardly any were actually accessing it, they are perfectly capable and confident to offer their own 90 - 95% LTV mortgages without any state guarantee.

They don't need HTB2 because they've got Carney's £100bn Term Funding Scheme to fall back on instead.

[bluegnu]

15 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

They don't need HTB2 because they've got Carney's £100bn Term Funding Scheme to fall back on instead.

Heh, true

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, bluegnu said:

 

 

47 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

They don't need HTB2 because they've got Carney's £100bn Term Funding Scheme to fall back on instead.

That would imply they dont have to pay it back...which they probably wont.

 

That my dear friends is what's called STATE BACKED THEFT

Edited January 9, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[PropertyMania]

4 hours ago, Darby Ram said:

I think the forex part of the housing market is going to be the key. Most people don't look at anything except the headline HPI number, but if you hold non-sterling assets then the re-rating of the pound this year (and probable its continued decline) has outweighed everything else. A pretty cautious global tracker would have returned c20% last year in sterling terms, which makes housing look like a laggard.

Even without a nominal crash, I think that a long period of UK housing under-performing as an asset class is likely, and that will be how the wealth disappears without anyone really noticing.  

Absolutely. A UK house price chart in US dollars since the early 1970s ($2.50) to today ($1.21) would look very different. 

[sisyphal]

1 hour ago, crashmonitor said:

I would say as regards stock the opposite has occurred in the N Midlands it's fallen fast and most stuff under 200k  has gone very quickly. May be I am a boiling frog but I am struggling to see any significant change in asking prices. I'd certainly notice if we had a fraction of the nonsense that had occurred further south, we haven't.

Whether prices only react when inventories hit crisis point, who knows.

After watching the carnage further south and seeing very little movement up north tbh I'd be surprised at this late stage if there were any significant price movements north of Nottingham. The ripple has had years to fan out, yet its got stuck in the S Midlands.

Afraid it's still increasing at a fast rate in Stockport (SK8, SK2, SK8, SK12 etc). 

I think the Interest Rate drop and the Term Funding Scheme have breathed new life to it.  Stock levels are very low.  I see houses go up and think "it's not worth that" then a few days later SSTC. For example http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63822533.html after the GFC (2010-2013) it wouldn've taken months to sell then gone for £170K ish, now it's ~50% up on that.

I've considered moving to a bigger place, the monthly numbers look ok (at 1.69%), but the capital amounts worry me too much.  I'm just going to extend, hope my builder's rates haven't gone up in a similar fashion.  Although I'm led to believe materials are continuing to rise.

[zugzwang]

1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

That would imply they dont have to pay it back...which they probably wont.

 

That my dear friends is what's called STATE BACKED THEFT

Borrow @ 0.25%, lend at 5.00% and four years to pay back the loans or forfeit the dodgy collateral!

State backed theft is exactly what it is.

[silver surfer]

It's just short term noise. Look further out and the picture's clearer.

S24 fully implemented by 2020/21 means the current equilibrium can't survive. Add in the strong likelihood that the interest rate trend will soon be ticking up, slowly at first but inching up none the less, and there's an overwhelming probability of materially lower house prices across the next few years.

I strongly suspect BTL landlords will hang on too long before selling their property. Not because they've the steely resolve of a band of Trojans, simply because they don't have a plan B. So they'd rather pretend something will turn up and keep the Range Rover (and the BTL that supposedly will pay for it) for another year or two, before reality becomes inescapable. 

Net result is price falls won't be quick, but they will be sure.

[silver surfer]

1 hour ago, sisyphal said:

Afraid it's still increasing at a fast rate in Stockport (SK8, SK2, SK8, SK12 etc). 

I think the Interest Rate drop ... have breathed new life to it.

Mortgage rates (which are what really counts) are starting to move up, the very cheapest loans are currently being pulled right along the High Street.

Don't necessarily expect price falls immediately, but looked at across say a three year horizon, they're now pretty much baked in.

[spyguy]

1 minute ago, silver surfer said:

Mortgage rates (which are what really counts) are starting to move up, the very cheapest loans are currently being pulled right along the High Street.

Don't necessarily expect price falls immediately, but looked at across say a three year horizon, they're now pretty much baked in.

The mortgage terms are becoming harder- higher deposits.

[Venger]

If it isn't how "HPC can't happen because of VI"  it is 'HPCers preying on misery and innocents'.

Sheesh.

Lot to be excited about, and agree with SilverSurfer on this thread - now that he has come back hard-HPC minded, and fun again, after political turn of Section24.

Quote

 

Real Estate Bubbles:

The manic phase of the boom lasts for several years. In the classic assets mania, markets outrun any rational valuation based on yield or cash return. Properties come to sell at absurd prices on the expectation they will appreciate to still more absurd prices. And they do. They defy gravity, moving from one lofty new high to another, month after month, year after year.... long enough to lure in otherwise prudent people to mortgaging their gains to reinvest in the inflated assets on margin.

Before the market can top, everyone who could conceivably be drawn in must have already become a buyer. And debt levels supporting the asset prices must be many times higher than any that could conceivably be serviced out of the cash flow yielded by the asset itself.

Then comes the bust. Just as everyone has come to count on the idea that the lofty asset valuations are permanent, there is a crash.

------

“Demand is intrinsically linked to affordability, and that’s linked to how much banks are prepared to lend and how much people are prepared to borrow.

Demand for housing is a very flexible thing. Saying something isn’t going to happen because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t really make any sense.  That’s like saying because I haven’t died yet I won’t, but I guess I probably will. And a housing crash is much the same. Something not happening simply makes it more likely that it will, rather than it won’t, if the conditions are in place, and the conditions are in place.

Markets are driven at the margin. They’re driven by people who have to buy or people who have to sell. So when you get to the point when there are people who must sell, and that will come, then prices fall across the board because not many people have to be forced to sell at a low price to push values down.”

 

 

[canbuywontbuy]

3 hours ago, Grumpysod said:

One of the more wiser statements I have read on this site. I just burst out laughing this time when I saw these figures, it is just pointless screaming at the moon. I am reading on the odd occasion two particular angry and bitter posters on this site who write huge essays as to why the UK housing market is all wrong and ready to collapse, like it has been for 10 years now, but seems like nobody is reading their script.

The thinking of many people on here is that so many have gambled highly on the wrong horse in the housing market through BTL or just buying their own home in recent years, that was and still is my own personal view. The one big difference today 2017 and several years ago was that if the housing speculative gamble had collapsed then it would have been a case to the victor the spoils as the losers fight to survive with their crippling debts. Sadly if the housing market collapsed in the next few years or probably longer the way things are going, those that did gamble will probably be seen as blameless and will be on the same level playing field as most of us.

Enjoy your life buddy, life is too short.

I couldn't agree more.  When things are so far gone, you will start to sense a funny feeling in your bones.  It's called freedom.  When what you want is so far away from where you are, you become free to change direction.  The sense of freedom to change direction feels much better than being stubbornly fixated on Plan A.  Suddenly alternatives are more viable than the Plan A you were chasing all along.  Of course, Plan A can become an obsession, so some will wait for perhaps 20 or 30+ years in total for their pyrrhic victory (if it ever arrives) squandering alternative ways to live along the way.