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crashmonitor

Halifax +1.7% MOM +6.5% YOY

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I think the IR reduction, latest BoE printing and scheme to gift money to the banks is going to create a mini boom until at least the second half of the year. The Nationwide report for December was also surprisingly strong.

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3 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Carney cut rates on 4th August, the four month increase from August - December is 4.0% of that 6.5%, really have to question the judgement there.

Watching Carney, Broadbent and Haldane fumble incompetently with the economy is like watching your child peel vegetables for the first time. Sticking plasters and germolene are an almost guaranteed requirement, while a lengthy and distressing trip to A&E shouldn't be ruled out.

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The BoE and Carney had a few goals to meet:

1) Stopping UKGOV yields from blowing up. Passed

2) Make sure that gilts are still bought. Faltering on this.

3) Manage private debt down. Failed.

4) Work on the government to reduce the budget deficit. Good in reducing the deficit from 12% of GDP - Brown you useless tnuc.. Bad as its stuck at 6%.

The UK is very exposed on its finances.

Assuming the debt/IRs move towards their 20 year average, we'll see a lot more government spending go on debt repayment.

As I tell a teacher friend - Brown spent your pension and future pay increases on setting up 16h nail bars and dog walkers in 2002+.

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Quote

• Luton recorded the biggest percentage rise in house prices among major UK towns and cities over the past year, according to recent separate research by Halifax. The average house price in the Bedfordshire town was 19.4% higher than in the previous year, increasing from £214,934 to £256,636 in 2016. Luton is within easy commuting distance of London and has relatively low property prices. The outer London borough of Barking and Dagenham experienced the second biggest rise in average house prices with an increase of 18.6%. Dunstable – Luton’s near neighbour – completed the top three with a 17.9% rise.

 

Yes People , never mind Luton being a property hotspot Dunstable near by is in the top 3 as well a town willl literally sod all going for it 

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14 minutes ago, Nabby81 said:

 

Yes People , never mind Luton being a property hotspot Dunstable near by is in the top 3 as well a town willl literally sod all going for it 

I would have thought environment would have some determination on house prices, it doesn't appear to. Just a case of how far to commute to London. I'd find this a bit of a depresser on my days off though.......

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908559/Once-thriving-Dunstable-ghost-town-43-boarded-shops.html

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4 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I would have thought environment would have some determination on house prices, it doesn't appear to. Just a case of how far to commute to London. I'd find this a bit of a depresser on my days off though.......

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908559/Once-thriving-Dunstable-ghost-town-43-boarded-shops.html

Its all about the commute to London , I strongly doubt that the new Amazon warehouse in Dunstable is paying enough to drive up prices. It's insanity my wife is from USA so option of moving to small town in Northern Maine is option for me as I have very few options to buy left in UK and paying double what friends have paid doesn't appeal to me in slightest   

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Seeing actual reductions in anything bigger than a 2 bed flat / tiny semi in North herts for at least 3 months.  Only places moving are the flats and smaller houses.

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I think I said at the time when they reduced IR and used outr futures to hand £100Bn to the banks to force down mortgage rates.

The Indexes were only going one way.

This is deliberate policy now and should be seen as a common criminality by a group of men in charge of the public purse, nothing more.

 

all IMHO of course.

 

 

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Very thin volume in Norwich northing for sale but few nice ones do sell and some at depressing prices 10%+ more than last year.

Not consistent though and feels like last fools paying up.

The was/is a definite ramp up a bit though as houses sat on the market during the summer its a bit disgusting that it is most likely down to the bloody BOE again.

From 330 > 500k since 2011 in my first choice area with nothing changing aside from QE,FLS and HTB etc its beginning to feel personal.  

I am not after a free house FFS just as soon as i look like negotiating something in they step again.

Edited by Fromage Frais

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The forex market reflects the risks the UK economy faces in the near future. But the housing market seems to defy all odds and keeps raising. Either of this is true.

1. The Three dozen numb skull anarchists are completely wrong and wasting their precious time here.

2. The whole market is rigged and when things goes out of control, there is  now way out for these idiots who kept buying property in sky high prices.

Now, my mind can't determine which one is correct.

However the supply seems to be drying up.

http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/uk-property-supply-falls-by-nearly-half-in-december.html

Edited by hi5lo5

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1 hour ago, Nabby81 said:

Its all about the commute to London , I strongly doubt that the new Amazon warehouse in Dunstable is paying enough to drive up prices. It's insanity my wife is from USA so option of moving to small town in Northern Maine is option for me as I have very few options to buy left in UK and paying double what friends have paid doesn't appeal to me in slightest   

Luton, UK or Maine, USA? Maine is a no-brainer to me.

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34 minutes ago, hi5lo5 said:

The forex market reflects the risks the UK economy faces in the near future. But the housing market seems to defy all odds and keeps raising. Either of this is true.

1. The Three dozen numb skull anarchists are completely wrong and wasting their precious time here.

2. The whole market is rigged and when things goes out of control, there is  now way out for these idiots who kept buying property in sky high prices.

Now, my mind can't determine which one is correct.

However the supply seems to be drying up.

http://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/uk-property-supply-falls-by-nearly-half-in-december.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-4098268/GIRL-TOWN-Royals-t-afford-London-Lady-Amelia-Windsor-plans-Brighton-Bristol.html

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Seeing this response from the market to a quarter percent drop in rates warms the cockles of my heart as I know that eventually rates are going to have to move in the other direction. This is not the top but a sign that we are now arriving at a point when the market will turn.

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Remind me, when did the Canadian dummy take over as Bank Governor?

Middle of 2013, wasn't it?

 

halifax0901-large_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzu

Edited by zugzwang

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What are the halifax sales volumes figure like ?

have they dropped off a cliff ?

That might make sense of this insane rise, massive volatility to come, trending to 0.

 

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Referring to Luton 

http://www.bedfordshire-news.co.uk/property-price-rise-a-problem-for-luton-according-to-councillor/story-30036105-detail/story.html#4Ggmsd8XvwoCJAXA.99

Quote

 

LUTON recorded the biggest percentage rise in house prices among major UK towns and cities over the past year, but this could cause problems for people hoping to get on the housing ladder.

According to data collected by Halifax, the average house price in the Bedfordshire town was 19.4 per cent higher than in the previous year, increasing from £214,934 to £256,636 in 2016.

However, Luton Borough Councillor Tom Shaw believes that the rise in house prices will make it harder for people who already don't own homes to get on the ladder.

He said: "It's a good thing for the town, but it does mean that a council house is now worth around £250,000, meaning it's near impossible for some to get a mortgage in the town, which is a challenge we as a council will have to deal with.

"It also means it's even harder for the council to deal with our housing shortages, as the cost of land is just increasing.

"For people who have a mortgage and equity on their home it's a good thing, but for those without it just makes it harder to get on the property ladder."

Cllr Shaw said that the council will be looking at ways to alleviate the problem, which may include the introduction of a shared ownership programme.

 


No Shit Sherlock 

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2 hours ago, hi5lo5 said:

The forex market reflects the risks the UK economy faces in the near future. But the housing market seems to defy all odds and keeps raising. Either of this is true.

I think the forex part of the housing market is going to be the key. Most people don't look at anything except the headline HPI number, but if you hold non-sterling assets then the re-rating of the pound this year (and probable its continued decline) has outweighed everything else. A pretty cautious global tracker would have returned c20% last year in sterling terms, which makes housing look like a laggard.

Even without a nominal crash, I think that a long period of UK housing under-performing as an asset class is likely, and that will be how the wealth disappears without anyone really noticing.  

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