Brexit - Are You Having Regrets? -- Multiple Merged

[Riedquat]

Ideally they would like to give the UK a good kicking to discourage the others

"The more you tighten your grip, JunckersMerkel, the more countries will slip through your fingers." And the EU doesn't have a Death Star to threaten us with.

[Fairyland]

Bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/british-banks-extend-brexit-plunge-after-mass-analyst-downgrades

Barclays, RBS Hit Post-Crisis Lows on Banks Brexit Plunge

Richard Partington

RJPartington

Stephen Morris

sjhmorris

June 27, 2016 1:40 PM BST Updated on June 27, 2016 4:01 PM BST

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U.K., European Banks Bear the Brunt of Brexit Pain

Analysts slash earnings estimates as U.K. votes to leave EU

Trading in Barclays and RBS briefly halted after rapid drops

Barclays Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc had their shares halted as the banks plunged to the lowest level since the financial crisis, accelerating declines after the U.K.s vote to leave the European Union sparked fears about political and economic risks.

Barclays shares fell more than 17 percent for the second straight day, and the stock has now lost more than half its value in the last 12 months. RBS plummeted as much as 26 percent in London trading, reaching the lowest levels since January 2009 amid the lenders taxpayer bailout. Trading in both banks was halted earlier in the day amid the rapid drops.

Analysts downgraded Barclays, RBS and Lloyds Banking Group Plc en masse, cutting their earnings outlooks as investors seek to comprehend the fallout from Brexit. The average share-price estimate for these banks dropped more than 13 percent in the past two trading days, while all three lenders had ratings on their stocks cut by at least six analysts.

Lloyds fell 10 percent at 4 p.m. in London, while challenger banks Virgin Money Holdings UK Plc, OneSavings Bank Plc and Shawbrook Group Plc all plunged more than 25 percent.

Even before the U.K. voted to leave the EU on Thursday, the nations banks faced a 7.9 billion-pound ($10.4 billion) revenue headwind from rising competition and low interest rates, analysts led by Michael Helsby at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a note to clients on Monday. The Bank of England could cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points to hurt the outlook even further, they added.

On the other hand, Londons two emerging market-focused lenders HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc have been upgraded by some analysts today as their reliance on Asia for earnings is now seen as a help rather than a hindrance. Additionally, their financial performance and dividends, which are reported and paid in dollars, may look more attractive as the U.S. currency appreciates against the British pound.

While every bank operating in the U.K. will probably be hurt by a slowdown in borrowing, as corporates put their investment plans on hold, each bank is exposed to its own particular risks.

Barclays

Jes Staley faces the toughest task among the British bank chief executive officers post-Brexit because of his commitment to running a large, London-based investment bank, analysts at Jefferies International Ltd. and Bank of America said Monday.

The out vote changes everything about Barclayss investment proposition, according to Joseph Dickerson at Jefferies. The structure, profitability and, indeed, existence of Barclayss investment bank are called into question, and the U.K. referendum is likely to require an expensive reshape of the investment bank, he said.

The problem stems from the potential loss of passporting rules for Londons banks, which allow them to operate across the region without having to set up local subsidiaries. If Britain loses this right, Barclays will have bulk up operations in cities such as Frankfurt and Dublin to continue trading and underwriting securities in the EU, a costly prospect.

The complexities of managing an exit from the EU alongside the introduction of ringfencing makes its investment bank operations potentially even more problematic than before, BofA analyst Michael Helsby wrote.

Meanwhile, the investment bank will suffer a drop in revenue as British bond and loan issuance dry up. Barclays is the number two arranger of sterling-denominated bonds this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Royal Bank of Scotland

The lender is 73 percent-owned by a government in turmoil, casting doubt over Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbornes plans to raise about 25 billion pounds disposing of the U.K.s stake by 2020. While its unclear if the lender would still have to sell its Williams & Glyn consumer bank to satisfy EU state aid rules, CEO Ross McEwan has previously said he would push ahead anyway.

RBS continues to face challenges in restructuring its business which we dont expect to be helped by political and economic uncertainty, analysts led by Rohith Chandra-Rajan at Barclays wrote in a note to clients on Monday, cutting the stock from equal weight to underweight. Its likely to take many years for the U.K. to exit its stake.

With some operations in Europe and a consumer bank in Ireland, RBS could find itself cut off from some of its business units, Chairman Howard Davies warned in March. The bank is also exposed to the risk of a Scottish referendum on U.K. membership, which could cost it about 1 billion pounds in restructuring expenses associated with separating its units in the country, Jefferies Dickerson wrote in a note to clients, downgrading the stock from buy to hold. RBS has about 4.4 percent of group loans in Scotland, according to analysts at JPMorgan.

Lloyds

Lloyds fell amid concerns its almost entirely domestically-focused business would come under pressure as the U.K. slides toward recession. Additionally, like RBS, the lender may have to spend about 1 billion pounds reorganizing its operations in the event of Scottish independence, according to Jefferies. As the owner of the Bank of Scotland, the nations oldest lender founded in 1695, Lloyds has about 6.2 percent of its total assets in the country, according to JPMorgan.

Lloyds is arguably the most exposed to a slowdown in the economy, the analysts at Bank of America wrote, cutting the shares from buy to underperform. We do not think the shares yet capture the uncertainties of the U.K.s leave vote and the potential further complexities of Scottish independence.

With uncertainty over George Osbornes future as Chancellor, combined with a slump in shares and spike in market volatility, the government may not be able to dispose of its 9.1 percent stake in Lloyds by the end of March as planned.

Challenger banks

These fast-growing British lenders may now have to face their first economic downturn as public companies, pitting their balance sheets to the test after a period of rapid expansion.

CYBG Plc, the owner of the Clydesdale and Yorkshire Bank brands spun out of National Australia Bank earlier this year, would probably be among lenders hurt most by the U.K.s decision to leave if the BOE cuts interest rates, according to Bank of America. The bank also has the largest concentration of Scottish loans among British firms at 17 percent, according to JPMorgan.

Others including Billionaire Richard Bransons Virgin Money and Shawbrook face concerns about their exposure to the U.K. housing market, which the U.K. Treasury warned before the vote may be as much as 18 percent lower than if the country stayed in the EU.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Fairyland

[kzb]

<What makes you so sure?>

Of course I am not sure in reality. However this seems the most likely outcome to me. We are going to end up, as Cameron said, paying up and accepting free movement of people in return for free trade. But with no representation.

On the bright side, we are at the back of the queue for that US trade deal. That's good.

I am also remembering what I thought a few weeks back: we wouldn't be having this referendum if they didn't know what the result would be. So maybe this was all pre-planned.

After all, a referendum is nothing more than an opinion poll. A big opinion poll that gets more attention than usual. If only the EU could throw us an olive branch on immigration. (which lets' face it is the big issue but they won't admit it even on the Brexit side).

[rollover]

Yes, I think it is and is spreading. Leadership of the country in mess, bankers panicking, Joe Public is very confused and don't know what to do.

[workingpoor]

<What makes you so sure?>

Of course I am not sure in reality. However this seems the most likely outcome to me. We are going to end up, as Cameron said, paying up and accepting free movement of people in return for free trade. But with no representation.

On the bright side, we are at the back of the queue for that US trade deal. That's good.

I am also remembering what I thought a few weeks back: we wouldn't be having this referendum if they didn't know what the result would be. So maybe this was all pre-planned.

After all, a referendum is nothing more than an opinion poll. A big opinion poll that gets more attention than usual. If only the EU could throw us an olive branch on immigration. (which lets' face it is the big issue but they won't admit it even on the Brexit side).

"There will be no 2nd referendum and all talk of it is for the Birds"

David Cameron house of commons this afternoon.

[Paul77]

Long before the vote FTSE100 was in a down trend flirting with levels last seen in 2008 crash / 2010 recovery. Brexit has only accelerated drops, but still, 52weeks low hasn't been touched.

[Crazy88s]

I am not Sorry but I have got to vent.

A message to Brexiters.

You are in the main and your whole sorry movement are a bunch of thick fascist racist short sighted uncultured OIKS.

Yeah there is loads wrong with the EU, but if you want one reason it is worth while, go and look at the war graves in Northern France.

[workingpoor]

I am not Sorry but I have got to vent.

A message to Brexiters.

You are in the main and your whole sorry movement are a bunch of thick fascist racist short sighted uncultured OIKS.

Yeah there is loads wrong with the EU, but if you want one reason it is worth while, go and look at the war graves in Northern France.

YEEEEAAAAHHHH MATE!

We really dun somefink 'n now we gonna crash econmy innit.

Edited June 27, 2016 by workingpoor

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Yes, I think it is and is spreading. Leadership of the country in mess, bankers panicking, Joe Public is very confused and don't know what to do.

Which is why Brexit will die. LBC seemed to find plenty of regretful leavers today, and opinion seems to massing for a second vote/inquiry. The Head of Wellington, following a piece on WWI remember with Farage, was suggesting a public inquiry should be held due to there being too many lies in the campaign. And now some European leaders are starting to suggest it. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662419/Britain-hold-second-referendum-says-Poland-leader-country-s-ruling-party-warns-EU-radically-change.html

Clearly it is the Irish solution.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Mikhail Liebenstein

[stormymonday_2011]

Yeah there is loads wrong with the EU, but if you want one reason it is worth while, go and look at the war graves in Northern France.

I believe many of them died trying to prevent a certain Mr Hitler from creating a European super state.

But then fascism appears to be in eye of the beholder.

Edited June 27, 2016 by stormymonday_2011

[SpectrumFX]

I am not Sorry but I have got to vent.

A message to Brexiters.

You are in the main and your whole sorry movement are a bunch of thick fascist racist short sighted uncultured OIKS.

Yeah there is loads wrong with the EU, but if you want one reason it is worth while, go and look at the war graves in Northern France.

Out's not a movement. Out was a rational decision, not a lifestyle choice, or club. We don't wear colours and there isn't an initiation ceremony.

You've been fooled into blaming all your problems on a false grouping of "others". It's staggeringly ironic that you call that group fascist.

I've been to northern France thanks. I went with my grandfather to revisit the landing beaches. He would have seen straight through you.

[Sheeple Splinter]

We need CETA - that is all.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/

Why? It's still not ratified due to Romania and Bulgaria waiting for Canada to lift visa restrictions - 8 years and counting. Incidentally, the only campaigner AFAIK to call out Cameron's, 8 years to get a trade deal, was Hannan.

Cameron said he was putting an experienced team together to negotiate UK withdrawal. I just hope he doesn't use the same team he used 4+ months ago!

Signing and ratification by Romania and Bulgaria are required for CETA to come into effect. ^[10][26] Romania and Bulgaria had declared they would not do either until the visa requirements for Romanian and Bulgarian citizens by Canada were lifted. The issue is still unresolved.^[27]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Economic_and_Trade_Agreement

edit: link added

Edited June 27, 2016 by Sheeple Splinter

[Impatiently Waiting]

Long before the vote FTSE100 was in a down trend flirting with levels last seen in 2008 crash / 2010 recovery. Brexit has only accelerated drops, but still, 52weeks low hasn't been touched.

The FTSE250 is about to breach 52 week low and is a better gauge.

[Sheeple Splinter]

I am not Sorry but I have got to vent.

A message to Brexiters.

You are in the main and your whole sorry movement are a bunch of thick fascist racist short sighted uncultured OIKS.

Yeah there is loads wrong with the EU, but if you want one reason it is worth while, go and look at the war graves in Northern France.

How very dare you, what about the war graves in Belgium, Holland and Malta, you, you gravist.

[council dweller]

crazy88s......

So what are you going to do ?

I was in the situation of being broke in 1989 (it was hopeless) so I when went to japan.

You could do the same ? (or similar )

[MattW]

No regrets voting 'Leave' as yet!

[btl_hater]

I'm just glad all the low skilled Brits are going have the chance to pick fruit later this summer.

Edited June 27, 2016 by btl_hater

[Sheeple Splinter]

I'm just glad all the low skilled Brits are going have the chance to pick fruit later this summer.

Like the last three years then:

The government said there will not be a need for SAWS, and it wants UK citizens to fill the vacancies when work restrictions change for Bulgarians and Romanians.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24476499

[Errol]

The EU people are insane. This isn't a joke. The referendum was the last chance to save our country:

President of the EU Parliament on Twitter (see zerohedge):

'THE BRITISH HAVE VIOLATED THE RULES. IT IS NOT THE EU PHILOSOPHY THAT THE CROWD CAN DECIDE ITS FATE'

[Crazy88s]

Out's not a movement. Out was a rational decision, not a lifestyle choice, or club. We don't wear colours and there isn't an initiation ceremony.

You've been fooled into blaming all your problems on a false grouping of "others". It's staggeringly ironic that you call that group fascist.

I've been to northern France thanks. I went with my grandfather to revisit the landing beaches. He would have seen straight through you.

Well talk about well thought out, my wife's hairdresser, on the 23rd, when my wife asked her if she was going to vote, the reply was 'yeah I think so but I don't know who yet' FFS, I bet she had trouble spelling 'X'. I think many people, and probably rather more on the out side did not really think things through. Lets see how they feel when they are unemployed.

There is a lot of 'fascist' behaviour, with 'outers' targeting 3rd generation descendants of immigrants telling them 'now you must leave' I fear many of the out oiks took the wrong meaning of leave and mistook leave the EU for immigrants or those that look like they might be immigrants must leave, if that is not fascism I don't know what is. A truly sad state of affairs.

It is a sad indictment of humanity that we are building barricades instead of bridges, this poorly thought out protest will not make the world a better place, and will be reversed when the next generation can vote.

[Crazy88s]

YEEEEAAAAHHHH MATE!

We really dun somefink 'n now we gonna crash econmy innit.

Thank you for your input, you capture very nicely the articulatory skills of an above average brexter, a below average ones cant type and can barely speak.

[Crazy88s]

crazy88s......

So what are you going to do ?

I was in the situation of being broke in 1989 (it was hopeless) so I when went to japan.

You could do the same ? (or similar )

I am just going to vent for a while and then go away, what can you do faced with such stupidity. but I just think that some people on here, waving the 'land of hope and glory' banner should realise there are a lot of pissed off people that did not ask for this and definitely did not want to happen. this chasm wont heal very quickly if at all.

I am just so ashamed of my countrymen/women for being so short sighted.

I am not broke, far from it, but my retirement fund has taken a good kicking in the last few days, and the possibility of retiring to an EU country is now in doubt.

[IMHAL]

Well talk about well thought out, my wife's hairdresser, on the 23rd, when my wife asked her if she was going to vote, the reply was 'yeah I think so but I don't know who yet' FFS, I bet she had trouble spelling 'X'. I think many people, and probably rather more on the out side did not really think things through. Lets see how they feel when they are unemployed.

There is a lot of 'fascist' behaviour, with 'outers' targeting 3rd generation descendants of immigrants telling them 'now you must leave' I fear many of the out oiks took the wrong meaning of leave and mistook leave the EU for immigrants or those that look like they might be immigrants must leave, if that is not fascism I don't know what is. A truly sad state of affairs.

It is a sad indictment of humanity that we are building barricades instead of bridges, this poorly thought out protest will not make the world a better place, and will be reversed when the next generation can vote.

I agree with you - I do not believe that people actually thought it through. I think that protest voters, the disaffected and the lied to make up a significant part of the Leave contingent.

When I say the lied to, I mean both by the current government and the Leave camp, whose lies are unraveling by the second.

Perhaps the EU is an undemocratic organisation because they understand that the masses cannot be trusted with important matters. As we have just demonstrated by pulling the plug on our economy and our future.

Now we have the political parties fighting among themselves when there should be national unity to overcome this, our greatest challenge in a lifetime and they bicker. We truly do have the politicians that we deserve.

[SpectrumFX]

I am just going to vent for a while and then go away, what can you do faced with such stupidity. but I just think that some people on here, waving the 'land of hope and glory' banner should realise there are a lot of pissed off people that did not ask for this and definitely did not want to happen. this chasm wont heal very quickly if at all.

I am just so ashamed of my countrymen/women for being so short sighted.

I am not broke, far from it, but my retirement fund has taken a good kicking in the last few days, and the possibility of retiring to an EU country is now in doubt.

I'll go up on the attic and get my tiny violin.

Your retirement fund wasn't suitably diversified. That's your fault and nobody else's.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

I am just going to vent for a while and then go away, what can you do faced with such stupidity. but I just think that some people on here, waving the 'land of hope and glory' banner should realise there are a lot of pissed off people that did not ask for this and definitely did not want to happen. this chasm wont heal very quickly if at all.

I am just so ashamed of my countrymen/women for being so short sighted.

I am not broke, far from it, but my retirement fund has taken a good kicking in the last few days, and the possibility of retiring to an EU country is now in doubt.

Er...

Hugz?