Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[thecrashingisles]

2 hours ago, Dweller said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/17/three-ways-eu-could-respond-to-uk-ditching-northern-ireland-protocol

Three ways EU could respond to UK ditching Northern Ireland protocol

For the EU to be considering pressing the button on any of the options just 18 months after the UK left the bloc with a trade deal is remarkable in the history of trade disputes.

“If you look at the World Trade Organization, the number of disputes between states is relatively small,” Barnard says. “The whole purpose of dispute resolution mechanisms is to resolve arguments, and that’s why you have those provisions in the withdrawal agreement and the TCA. But instead of talking about resolution, we are talking about ratcheting up the arguments to the point of terminating the treaty. It is extraordinary.”

......................................................................................................
I would imagine what makes this even more extraordinary is that the deal hasn't even been ratified or tbh is ever likely to be! 

The deal has been ratified. At one point the European Parliament threatened to withhold ratification to force the UK to implement the protocol but then they quickly backed down and instead just made a statement effectively saying that they didn't trust Johnson.

[byron78]

1 hour ago, Dweller said:

I don't know, does it come from the EU? 

🤣

[byron78]

2 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The deal has been ratified. At one point the European Parliament threatened to withhold ratification to force the UK to implement the protocol but then they quickly backed down and instead just made a statement effectively saying that they didn't trust Johnson.

Do you trust Johnson?

[kzb]

3 hours ago, coypondboy said:

I move to Bournemouth in 98 and still waiting for that Mediterranean climate, my wife has an irish passport so thinking of getting one myself so the option of renting for 6 mths over the winter in europe as can't afford to heat the house in UK.

Some years ago they said Blackpool would be like Benidorm by 2025, never mind Bournemouth.  I was thinking of claiming asylum and getting sent to Rwanda.  It seems to be 25-29 degrees daytime temperature all year, so nice and warm without it being crazily hot.

[slawek]

31 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The deal has been ratified. At one point the European Parliament threatened to withhold ratification to force the UK to implement the protocol but then they quickly backed down and instead just made a statement effectively saying that they didn't trust Johnson.

They can still ditch the whole TCA.

[Dweller]

39 minutes ago, thecrashingisles said:

The deal has been ratified. At one point the European Parliament threatened to withhold ratification to force the UK to implement the protocol but then they quickly backed down and instead just made a statement effectively saying that they didn't trust Johnson.

I obviously need to catch up I could have sworn I read something this year that said it had been delayed because of the NIP but obviously not. Thanks for updating me. 

[Dweller]

19 minutes ago, slawek said:

They can still ditch the whole TCA.

Quoting:

A more radical option would be to scrap the entire Brexit trade deal. Some EU officials and diplomats believe that the Northern Ireland protocol is so essential for economic cooperation between the two sides that the U.K.'s suspension of trade checks would justify such a radical response.

Others question whether there would be enough support within the EU for such a move, since it would also pull the plug on the Brexit deal's provisions on a range of other areas like transport, aviation, energy and fisheries. Two officials said, however, that the EU could decide to cancel the trade deal by qualified majority, meaning no individual country could block the plan.

Cancelling the trade deal would require the EU to give nine-months' notice. One diplomat said this would introduce a "ticking clock" that would increase pressure on both sides to reach an agreement. The request to scrap the trade deal could be withdrawn at any point during those nine months, should subsequent negotiations prove successful.

The EU could also cancel the entire EU-U.K. future relations agreement (with 12-months notice) — although this option is seen as unlikely as it might require unanimous backing from EU countries and many see parts of the agreement, such as on juridical cooperation or social rights, as crucial.
.......................................................................

I wish the EU would introduce the ticking clock because then gov.uk  and their bought media would be forced to talk about Brexit, and the REALITIES of Brexit are no longer "project fear" but project reality leaving even Moggy saying that to introduce the £200m + customs border in the UK would be "and act of self harm"  as many in the EU will cease trading with the UK just as many in the UK have ceased trading with the EU and NI where there is already a border. 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Dweller

[Dweller]

Labour peer Lord Foulkes of Cumnock took aim at former chief Brexit negotiator and minister Lord Frost, who was sat on the backbenches in the upper chamber for the government statement on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

He said: “We are just a wee bit fed up with those people who were responsible for it and got their peerages as a result of supporting that campaign get up now and criticise what they advocated.”

Having “pushed this on us”, Lord Foulkes said the Tory peer now “snipes from the sidelines”.

“We should blame those whose responsibility it really is,” he added.

Referring to the protocol, former Ulster Unionist leader Lord Empey said: “All of the consequences were foreseeable and indeed were foreseen.”

[slawek]

1 hour ago, Dweller said:

Quoting:

A more radical option would be to scrap the entire Brexit trade deal. Some EU officials and diplomats believe that the Northern Ireland protocol is so essential for economic cooperation between the two sides that the U.K.'s suspension of trade checks would justify such a radical response.

Others question whether there would be enough support within the EU for such a move, since it would also pull the plug on the Brexit deal's provisions on a range of other areas like transport, aviation, energy and fisheries. Two officials said, however, that the EU could decide to cancel the trade deal by qualified majority, meaning no individual country could block the plan.

Cancelling the trade deal would require the EU to give nine-months' notice. One diplomat said this would introduce a "ticking clock" that would increase pressure on both sides to reach an agreement. The request to scrap the trade deal could be withdrawn at any point during those nine months, should subsequent negotiations prove successful.

The EU could also cancel the entire EU-U.K. future relations agreement (with 12-months notice) — although this option is seen as unlikely as it might require unanimous backing from EU countries and many see parts of the agreement, such as on juridical cooperation or social rights, as crucial.
.......................................................................

I wish the EU would introduce the ticking clock because then gov.uk  and their bought media would be forced to talk about Brexit, and the REALITIES of Brexit are no longer "project fear" but project reality leaving even Moggy saying that to introduce the £200m + customs border in the UK would be "and act of self harm"  as many in the EU will cease trading with the UK just as many in the UK have ceased trading with the EU and NI where there is already a border. 

 

It is going to take some for the bill to pass HoL and then for the EU to respond. This will again create uncertainty among UK businesses trading or planning to trade with the EU.  All those plans to make the UK a electric car leader could be delayed until it is clear what is going to happen. 

[24gray24]

Dipping in with a question: 

Surely the DUP aren't going to believe any promises the tories make. They got had once, they couldn't be stupid twice. 

And surely Johnson doesn't want to get sucked into running Northern Ireland either. 

So what happens with stormont?

[Dweller]

23 minutes ago, slawek said:

It is going to take some for the bill to pass HoL and then for the EU to respond. This will again create uncertainty among UK businesses trading or planning to trade with the EU.  All those plans to make the UK a electric car leader could be delayed until it is clear what is going to happen. 

So the EU wont take any action unless/until the bill passes through the HoL but first does it have to pass the HoC and after the HoL , does it then go back to the HoC? 

So when Truss said today: 
 the new legislation would be published within weeks, including plans to create a “green channel” allowing goods to be exported from Great Britain to Northern Ireland without checks as long as they are not destined for the Republic of Ireland.

This will be the legislation to be presented  to the HoC ? 
And when I read today: 
The EU could hit UK goods with tariffs within seven days of legal action or freeze the entire trade deal agreed with Boris Johnson in 2020, two of three immediate weapons at their disposal, according to Catherine Barnard, an EU law professor at the University of Cambridge. Legal action against the UK that was frozen as a goodwill gesture last year would probably be restarted.

This would be 7 days after the legislation is passed if it ever gets passed yes? Sorry I need a Dummies guide 
 

[slawek]

45 minutes ago, Dweller said:

So the EU wont take any action unless/until the bill passes through the HoL but first does it have to pass the HoC and after the HoL , does it then go back to the HoC? 

So when Truss said today: 
 the new legislation would be published within weeks, including plans to create a “green channel” allowing goods to be exported from Great Britain to Northern Ireland without checks as long as they are not destined for the Republic of Ireland.

This will be the legislation to be presented  to the HoC ? 
And when I read today: 
The EU could hit UK goods with tariffs within seven days of legal action or freeze the entire trade deal agreed with Boris Johnson in 2020, two of three immediate weapons at their disposal, according to Catherine Barnard, an EU law professor at the University of Cambridge. Legal action against the UK that was frozen as a goodwill gesture last year would probably be restarted.

This would be 7 days after the legislation is passed if it ever gets passed yes? Sorry I need a Dummies guide 
 

That's my guess. The EU will wait for the bill become a law before doing anything. Of course they will be preparing a response meantime.

HoL can delay a bill by a year if it is not a money bill.

I don't know details of NIP or TCA. What I read is there are a few different ways the EU can respond. Some of them require 9-12 months notice.  It is possible that others can be activated much faster.

The EU may escalate their response. Starting with less drastic actions and gradually ramping up.

[kzb]

2 hours ago, slawek said:

They can still ditch the whole TCA.

Any response has to be proportionate under the TCA.  Tearing up the TCA requires 12 months' notice.  Ratification required the EU parliament, so it is likely tearing it up would need the same.  In other words it is unlikely the TCA could be torn up at short notice.

More likely it will go to the dispute resolution mechanism.  Another storm in a teacup.

[thecrashingisles]

5 hours ago, Dweller said:

I obviously need to catch up I could have sworn I read something this year that said it had been delayed because of the NIP but obviously not. Thanks for updating me. 

It was delayed a few weeks and then when it got to the point that the UK would need to agree an extension, they went ahead and ratified it.

[thecrashingisles]

6 hours ago, byron78 said:

Do you trust Johnson?

Do I trust that he has political convictions about how the country can be better and tries to further that vision? Yes.

Do I trust that he always tells the truth? No, but I would say that about anyone in politics.

[rollover]

[rollover]

Brexit has increased risk of dangerous foods reaching UK

Food Standards Agency inspectors are shut out of EU’s ’rapid alert system’ – and faces huge extra costs to build alternative defences to deliver the same result achieved with the EU’s system.

In common with other regulators, Brexit has had a “negative impact on their ability to assess risks or carry out their work”, the NAO concludes. Failures in food safety can have catastrophic consequences for human life, public confidence, the wider economy and international trade, the watchdog points out.

The chair of the Commons Public Accounts Committee highlighted the big gap between “high-minded talk of new Brexit freedoms and what it means in practice for regulation”.

Independent

[Dweller]

Again THANK GOD someone saying it as IT is but I bet in the interview the interviewer didn't pick up on the FACT that what is going on in NI isn't specific to NI but to the whole of the UK trading  with the EU, therefore also (if the border with the EU is ever implemented) the EU trying to trade with GB. The ISSUE here is the border around the whole of the UK NOT just NI. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/17/northern-ireland-protocol-brexit-tories-eu

One of Johnson’s complaints about an Irish Sea border, as expressed in an interview earlier this week, was that regulatory checks create “extra barriers to trade and burdens on business.” That generates “a great deal of faff and botheration”, which increases living costs. Those barriers are uniquely upsetting to Northern Ireland unionists on the level of national identity, but the faff and botheration incur costs also at Dover, Grimsby, Felixstowe; any place where goods move between Britain and the EU.

In other words, the prime minister’s economic rationale for wanting to fix the Northern Ireland protocol contains a complaint about conditions that are intrinsic  to the Brexit model he chose.

 

[Dweller]

2 hours ago, rollover said:

Brexit has increased risk of dangerous foods reaching UK

Food Standards Agency inspectors are shut out of EU’s ’rapid alert system’ – and faces huge extra costs to build alternative defences to deliver the same result achieved with the EU’s system.

In common with other regulators, Brexit has had a “negative impact on their ability to assess risks or carry out their work”, the NAO concludes. Failures in food safety can have catastrophic consequences for human life, public confidence, the wider economy and international trade, the watchdog points out.

The chair of the Commons Public Accounts Committee highlighted the big gap between “high-minded talk of new Brexit freedoms and what it means in practice for regulation”.

Independent

And then Gov.Uk want the EU to TRUST them on standards with goods going into NI!

[Dweller]

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/05/17/brexit-boris-johnson-single-market-betrayal-promises-broken/

A report by the UK in a Changing Europe think tank last month found that Britain’s exit from the EU has directly led to a 6% increase in food prices....

 

A forecast by the International Monetary Fund last month suggested that the UK will next year have the lowest growth of any major developed economy, with only sanctioned Russia experiencing lower growth.

By leaving the European Single Market and then threatening a trade war with the EU, Johnson is driving the UK to the most economically and politically ruinous form of Brexit.

[byron78]

10 hours ago, thecrashingisles said:

Do I trust that he has political convictions about how the country can be better and tries to further that vision? Yes.

Do I trust that he always tells the truth? No, but I would say that about anyone in politics.

I think most leaders have convictions. The problem really is when those aren't based in reality.

My vicar has the conviction a magic man in the sky will let me live forever as long as I talk to him regularly and accept said invisible man is always right (and better than everyone else's invisible men).

At some point I do think you're going to have to accept Johnson's convictions were largely just soundbites and abject laziness. Did he even read the Northern Ireland protocol he signed? Personally doubt it.

Edited May 18, 2022 by byron78

[Dweller]

13 minutes ago, byron78 said:

I think most leaders have convictions. The problem really is when those aren't based in reality.

My vicar has the conviction a magic man in the sky will let me live forever as long as I talk to him regularly and accept said invisible man is always right (and better than everyone else's invisible men).

At some point I do think you're going to have to accept Johnson's convictions were largely just soundbites and abject laziness. Did he even read the Northern Ireland protocol he signed? Personally doubt it.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/clip-of-ed-miliband-tearing-boris-johnson-to-pieces-over-the-ni-protocol-has-gone-viral-again-322923/?fbclid=IwAR3iv1YDWc-iYZqhysL9EyDSxFd0NEPpkpfUdMQ_Cwc0tOCAsxgvNf7viUA

Clip of Ed Miliband tearing Boris Johnson to pieces over the NI Protocol has gone viral – again

[IMHAL]

1 hour ago, Dweller said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/clip-of-ed-miliband-tearing-boris-johnson-to-pieces-over-the-ni-protocol-has-gone-viral-again-322923/?fbclid=IwAR3iv1YDWc-iYZqhysL9EyDSxFd0NEPpkpfUdMQ_Cwc0tOCAsxgvNf7viUA

Clip of Ed Miliband tearing Boris Johnson to pieces over the NI Protocol has gone viral – again

Ed ripped him a few few new ones there.

[Freki]

My thoughts half way through:

[miguel]

When all the lies and all the utter bllsht catches up with a clown.