Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[kzb]

18 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

UK - EU imports & exports = circa £650bn

UK - US imports & exports = circa £200bn

The way that trade works is that you trade most with your nearest neighbours..

Like China for example ?

The US is by far our biggest export market, and we are in surplus with them.

I am more and more viewing "trade" with the EU as some kind of ongoing catastrophe rather than something to be protected at all costs.  We are selling assets to continue net imports of c. £100 bn a year.  It's unsustainable.  If we stayed in the EU something would break at some point with the trade imbalance as it is.

 

[zugzwang]

14 minutes ago, kzb said:

Like China for example ?

The US is by far our biggest export market, and we are in surplus with them.

I am more and more viewing "trade" with the EU as some kind of ongoing catastrophe rather than something to be protected at all costs.  We are selling assets to continue net imports of c. £100 bn a year.  It's unsustainable.  If we stayed in the EU something would break at some point with the trade imbalance as it is.

 

That might make sense if the UK were a member of the eurozone. In fact, it was the sharp trade-weighted appreciation of sterling during the Blair years and again post-2008 as Osborne's echo housing bubble took off that devastated the profitability of UK exports.

[IMHAL]

2 hours ago, crouch said:

As one of 28! Brilliant - a completely counter intuitive position! I'm very proud of you!

And so you should be. Cooperation is a good thing

Quote

Maybe but our position in the World hardly figured; I would guess most were not concerned. 

Nonsense....Brexit was a single issue vote yet there are many consequences....what you cannot say is if people are concerned or not, that wwill emerge.

I note you have avoided the questions about where the cost reductions would come from.... you mentioned not being dragged into wars....so I assumed it was this......but if not the military then where?

Edited January 16, 2020 by IMHAL

[kzb]

18 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

That might make sense if the UK were a member of the eurozone. In fact, it was the sharp trade-weighted appreciation of sterling during the Blair years and again post-2008 as Osborne's echo housing bubble took off that devastated the profitability of UK exports.

You are quite likely correct about the cause of it, but what would we do about it now?  We're not allowed to interfere with free trade in the EU so there is nothing we can do about it while still a member.

[longgone]

2 hours ago, slawek said:

Brexit doesn't make a difference in this matter. "Votability" and accountability of the government has not changed. It is likely to get worse as they will rig the system to maintain their power. You have been tricked to elect even worse and unscrupulous politicians. It is quite good trick since you have no clue what has happened.   

It was worth the vote to keep the remoaners vocal.

It does not affect me personally why would I not vote to leave.

[longgone]

2 hours ago, jonb2 said:

Seems to be working so far - where's that Russian report again?

Accountable? - fat chance in hell mate. Pure fantasy island stuff. They're all off the leash now.

No one was ever anyway at least anger can be directed in the right place now.

[crouch]

35 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Nonsense....Brexit was a single issue vote yet there are many consequences....what you cannot say is if people are concerned or not, that wwill emerge.

The question was not whether it had consequences but whether people were concerned about it at the time. I said no and still say no.

36 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

I note you have avoided the questions about where the cost reductions would come from.... if not the military then where?

There are the continuing costs of getting involved in the wars (Iraq; Afghanistan; Balkans ). And I didn't suggest there were other significant areas.

43 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

And so you should be. Cooperation is a good thing

You were not talking about whether co-operation was a good thing; you were suggesting that membership of the EU enabled us to control our own destiny better which is not only counter intuitive but ludicrous, a nonsensical position.

[dugsbody]

12 minutes ago, longgone said:

It was worth the vote to keep the remoaners vocal.

It does not affect me personally why would I not vote to leave.

Culture war. You voted to harm a certain demographic you see as distinct from yourself. Humans are strange.

[longgone]

2 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

Culture war. You voted to harm a certain demographic you see as distinct from yourself. Humans are strange.

any change is better than nothing. Personally I think the uk has gone down the pan already long before brexit.

Without gloating I have full eu membership rights so it does not bother me personally.

[IMHAL]

1 minute ago, crouch said:

The question was not whether it had consequences but whether people were concerned about it at the time. I said no and still say no.

That would impossible to gauge and largley irrelevant....the question was simple, the issues and concerns many. What matter is what people are concerned about now.

1 minute ago, crouch said:

There are the continuing costs of getting involved in the wars (Iraq; Afghanistan; Balkans ). And I didn't suggest there were other significant areas.

You want to weaken our position in the world so that we can save on military costs. I doubt that that will happen, brexit or no. Next!

1 minute ago, crouch said:

You were not talking about whether co-operation was a good thing; you were suggesting that membership of the EU enabled us to control our own destiny better which is not only counter intuitive but ludicrous, a nonsensical position.

Common sense more like. Stronger together, mutual overall benefit. Going it alone if you have a strong position may make some sense.....what you are aadvocating is music to the ears of Trump, Putin and the other meglomaniacs..... we will be eaten one piece at a time.

[zugzwang]

35 minutes ago, kzb said:

You are quite likely correct about the cause of it, but what would we do about it now?  We're not allowed to interfere with free trade in the EU so there is nothing we can do about it while still a member.

There'll be no recovery until the bubble of phantom equity in the housing market is extinguished and the UK economy rebalanced away from borrowing and consumption. That should have been job number one from 2010 onwards. If we don't do it ourselves in orderly fashion then the markets will impose their own disorderly solution. So, yes, you're absolutely correct about the unsustainable nature of our trading relationships with the rest of the world.

[crouch]

16 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

You want to weaken our position in the world so that we can save on military costs. I doubt that that will happen, brexit or no. Next!

I never said I wanted to weaken our position; I said that it had declined steadily and that there were advantages in being less visible on the World stage. Are you dyslexic? Either that or you can't read.

And I never said that I want to weaken our position to save on military costs; that is absurd.

20 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

Common sense more like. Stronger together, mutual overall benefit. Going it alone if you have a strong position may make some sense.....what you are aadvocating is music to the ears of Trump, Putin and the other meglomaniacs..... we will be eaten one piece at a time.

Our strong position in the World does not rest on trade or being a member of the the EU; it rests on the fact that we are one of the larger economies in the World and were before we joined the EU and because of our legacy in World politics. Neither of these originate from being a member of the EU but exist independently and it isn't clear that being a member of the EU has been of particular note in maintaining whatever position we hold. The article I posted from the DT in fact indicated otherwise.

As in most things leaving the EU will make very little difference, but we will continue a slow, secular decline as we have been doing since WW11.

 

[slawek]

58 minutes ago, longgone said:

It was worth the vote to keep the remoaners vocal.

It does not affect me personally why would I not vote to leave.

This makes more sense but it is quite nasty. I am sure you don't care how it looks like anyway. 

[rockerboy]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

Like China for example ?

The US is by far our biggest export market, and we are in surplus with them.

I am more and more viewing "trade" with the EU as some kind of ongoing catastrophe rather than something to be protected at all costs.  We are selling assets to continue net imports of c. £100 bn a year.  It's unsustainable.  If we stayed in the EU something would break at some point with the trade imbalance as it is.

 

Before the Euro, global companies had to have head offices in each country, all accounting to the local currency and having to deal with regional corruption. The Euro was only about smoothing business across Europe. It was never about what the common man wants or needs.

Today, even if we stay in the EU or not, there are legitimate reasons for the many head offices that still remain in the UK, to move to countries in the European mainland (France/Germany/Benelux). 

However, Being OUT of the EU gives a good reason for these head offices to STAY in the UK, and this is what the EU is really sh*t scared of.  While the UK is strapped to EU rules, it will always decline for the reasons above, but once it is out, and the UK sets itself on another path of being a low tax economy, the UK is very liekly to survive and prosper. 

No-one wants poverty, but the remainers need to take a good look at their lovely Europe and drop the fog from their specs to see the real Europe.

Ideally visit the places were unemployment is 50% and realise that there are many large parts of Europe that are really sh*t for the people who live there - with some very poor people indeed.

If it wasn't so bad, why the heck do they come to the UK looking for a better life?

I'm glad we are leaving - I believe there is more chance for the UK to prosper, but I fully expect myself to be financially worse off in the near term.

however, as Longgone has said - the main benefit of brexit is that I and all of you can vote out BJ/Corbyn or whoever when there is an election, and that is by far the most important reason I voted for Brexit

Edited January 16, 2020 by rockerboy

[OnionTerror]

2 hours ago, kzb said:

Like China for example ?

The US is by far our biggest export market, and we are in surplus with them.

I am more and more viewing "trade" with the EU as some kind of ongoing catastrophe rather than something to be protected at all costs.  We are selling assets to continue net imports of c. £100 bn a year.  It's unsustainable.  If we stayed in the EU something would break at some point with the trade imbalance as it is.

 

If your happy to demolish whole sectors of the economy, such as JIT supply chains et al. then fine...The harder the out, the harder the back in.  The growth in ROW trade won't replace the trade lost when we leave the SM..  Heard of the Brussels effect?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_effect    http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1081&context=nulr

If we carry on Boris' trajectory, then we can remain outside the SM for so long, before there will be big calls for the UK to come back into the fold  al la Switzerland - we're back in, effectively as a vassal state under ECJ jurisdiction.  Don't say I didn't warn you!

[longgone]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

This makes more sense but it is quite nasty. I am sure you don't care how it looks like anyway. 

No nasty is depriving a generation of living standards via funny money the last 12 years.

Forgive me if I could not give a fig what happens to the place.

They can burn the lot for all I care.

Time too see who can swim the best.

 

 

[slawek]

It looks like Tories believe that they can use the same strategy for FTA as for WA, try to play the EU countries against each other and threat them with no-deal. It didn't work the last time. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51139220

[IMHAL]

 

Quote

Our strong position in the World does not rest on trade or being a member of the the EU; it rests on the fact that we are one of the larger economies in the World and were before we joined the EU and because of our legacy in World politics. Neither of these originate from being a member of the EU but exist independently and it isn't clear that being a member of the EU has been of particular note in maintaining whatever position we hold. The article I posted from the DT in fact indicated otherwise.

We are back to the same issue. I believe that our economy will be uneccesarilly weakened by leaving, thus weakening our position overall. We can wait and see, I suspect we will find out well before your 20 to 30 year timeframe youu seem to be reliant on.

Quote

As in most things leaving the EU will make very little difference, but we will continue a slow, secular decline as we have been doing since WW11.

 

Made worse by leaving, according to a vast array of forecasts which you poo poo. Never mind, time will tell, not really that long to wait until we find out what the trend is.

Edited January 16, 2020 by IMHAL

[rockerboy]

38 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

 

We are back to the same issue. I believe that our economy will be uneccesarilly weakened by leaving, thus weakening our position overall. We can wait and see, I suspect we will find out well before your 20 to 30 year timeframe youu seem to be reliant on.

Made worse by leaving, according to a vast array of forecasts which you poo poo. Never mind, time will tell, not really that long to wait until we find out what the trend is.

The UK has always been at a disadvantage when competing for funds within the EU - for investment this year, the UK is 27th out of 28 - It matters not the why - this is the reality

France, Italy, Germany and Spain collectively get 20 times more investment than the UK does  

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/jobs-growth-and-investment/investment-plan-europe-juncker-plan/investment-plan-results_en

The EU as always needed the UK to pump money into their project - The unfortunate cost of leaving will be for the UK to pay large amounts "because it was agreed beforehand".

Its all BS and everyone knows it - the UK was never going to get a benefit from this money anyway - you can see from the site where most of it going - France, Italy, Germany and Spain  

 

 

[slawek]

20 minutes ago, rockerboy said:

The UK has always been at a disadvantage when competing for funds within the EU - for investment this year, the UK is 27th out of 28 - It matters not the why - this is the reality

France, Italy, Germany and Spain collectively get 20 times more investment than the UK does  

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/jobs-growth-and-investment/investment-plan-europe-juncker-plan/investment-plan-results_en

The EU as always needed the UK to pump money into their project - The unfortunate cost of leaving will be for the UK to pay large amounts "because it was agreed beforehand".

Its all BS and everyone knows it - the UK was never going to get a benefit from this money anyway - you can see from the site where most of it going - France, Italy, Germany and Spain  

 

 

The low level of EFSI investment is due to Brexit, the money dried after the referendum.

In 2015, before Brexit, the UK received a third of all funds.

"2015’s EIB investment includes the new European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI), which was established earlier this year by the EIB and the European Commission to enable the EIB to undertake additional lending and boost private-sector investment. UK projects received €972 million through the EFSI, one third of all EFSI-supported lending in 2015."

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-figures-show-record-european-investment-bank-investment-in-uk-in-2015

 

[jonb2]

12 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

If your happy to demolish whole sectors of the economy, such as JIT supply chains et al. then fine...The harder the out, the harder the back in.  The growth in ROW trade won't replace the trade lost when we leave the SM..  Heard of the Brussels effect?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_effect    http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1081&context=nulr

If we carry on Boris' trajectory, then we can remain outside the SM for so long, before there will be big calls for the UK to come back into the fold  al la Switzerland - we're back in, effectively as a vassal state under ECJ jurisdiction.  Don't say I didn't warn you!

Yup.

And the so-called special relationship is going swimmingly too. This time from the horses mouth. But a certain person will argue there are two Trumps, the one who threatened us is merely a hologram on a bad day.

Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-tariffs-uk-iran-nuclear-deal-france-germany-eu-a9286496.html

What a sad lonely isolated little rock we've become.

[crouch]

6 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Yup.

And the so-called special relationship is going swimmingly too. This time from the horses mouth. But a certain person will argue there are two Trumps, the one who threatened us is merely a hologram on a bad day.

Trump threatened UK with 25% car tariffs unless it agreed to accuse Iran of breaking nuclear deal

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-tariffs-uk-iran-nuclear-deal-france-germany-eu-a9286496.html

What a sad lonely isolated little rock we've become.

Trump has threatened Europe, not just the UK. You make it seem:

 - like he's threatening us alone - he's not

 - that we're on our own - we're not; we're actually part of the EU with which the agreement with Iran was made.

It seems we can't wait to leave; all the bad things are happening even before we leave. By the time we actually do leave there'll be nothing left to go wrong.

[mallish]

18 hours ago, jonb2 said:

But we'll still be able to sell pieces of pigs to China -  so all is well.

repeating the same things that remainers have been saying for 4 years is not going to change anything 

[zugzwang]

20 hours ago, kzb said:

We'll see.  I hope you are right.

Provisional cost = £1bn per hospital.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jan/17/two-hospitals-held-up-by-carillion-collapse

Quote

The completion of two new hospitals whose construction was brought to a halt by the collapse of the government contractor Carillion has been delayed by two more years and will run hundreds of millions of pounds over budget, according to Whitehall’s spending watchdog.

The 646-bed Royal Liverpool, originally scheduled to open in 2017, is now forecast to be completed in the autumn of 2022 and cost more than £1bn to build and run compared with an original estimate of £746m, according to the National Audit Office.

A report released on Friday also found that the 669-bed Midland Metropolitan in Sandwell, which was due to open in October 2018, is now expected to open in July 2022 and will cost at least £988m – more than £300m over budget.

The delays and extra costs to the taxpayer have been seized upon by Labour and unions as the fault of Conservative ministers who were “asleep at the wheel” when the outsourcing giant went into liquidation in January 2018.

 

The hospitals were intended to be up-to-date medical facilities. They were funded by PFI, the controversial model where private firms are contracted to complete public projects and take debt off the government’s balance sheet.

Auditors said there were significant construction problems and delays before Carillion went into liquidation in January 2018 but the contractor’s collapse created more delay. Work on both sites stopped while the hospital trusts, government and private investors attempted to rescue the projects.

 

[mallish]

18 hours ago, Social Justice League said:

I actually hope there is a no deal Brexit, just to see the fallout.

Those Northern brain donors will get theirs.

you said last year you do not want to work so the economy does not matter to you

14 hours ago, longgone said:

Without gloating I have full eu membership rights so it does not bother me personally.

so why are you here - leave - o makes you stay in this terrible place

 

14 hours ago, crouch said:

Our strong position in the World does not rest on trade or being a member of the the EU;

Many EU nations are weak - being in the EU has not done much for the economies of Greece - Italy - Rumania - Bulgaria - Spain -