Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Dorkins]

21 minutes ago, copydude said:

Why not a GE?

General elections are much messier, more about who you want to be in charge than what you want them to do. The media and political class would love the next election to be "about Brexit" just like that's what they wanted GE2017 to be about but I don't think that happened in 2017 or will happen next time. People will mostly vote on bread and butter issues: cost of living, incomes etc.

[Dorkins]

17 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

And of course EFTA doesn't solve the NI border issue

The only thing that 'solves the NI border issue' is the UK staying in both the single market and the customs union, in which case it might as well remain an EU member.

[GrizzlyDave]

37 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

EFTA has been deeply poisoned by both sides..

True.

I blow hot and cold myself on it, but is seems like a compromise for a narrow brexit win.

23 minutes ago, MARTINX9 said:

We can't just join EFTA - Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein might not want the world's 5th largest economy muscling in.

And of course EFTA doesn't solve the NI border issue - as those nations have customs borders with the EU. Norway plus - EFTA plus customs union is of course complete vassal status i.e. in the EU but with no say at all, no MEPs, no seat at the council of ministers or on the Commission. Its totally pointless - its remain with no say.

It’s worth exploring isn’t it. Maybe they might say yes.

We might need a bit of humility about it. 

17 minutes ago, crouch said:

The reason for a second referendum is "because we know more". How can EFTA membership be a choice in any referendum when we have not yet even applied to join? 

We were founding members of EFTA so it’s not exactly alien to he UK.

[Dorkins]

13 minutes ago, crouch said:

That is a large assumption.

It's just where you get to by following a chain of logic:

The UK is a democracy, the 2016 referendum result must be enacted.

Leaving without a deal would be too disruptive for a peacetime government to go through with, therefore there must be a deal which would keep things running.

The withdrawal agreement is the only deal that the EU27 have offered or are every likely to offer (minor changes aside).

Therefore the withdrawal agreement must be passed.

However, the withdrawal agreement only provides for the UK ceasing to be an EU member state (tick, 2016 result enacted) and 2-3 years of continued single market and customs union participation while the Brexit end state is decided.

As for the Brexit end state, the EU27 have made it clear that the unity of the single market means there is no special deal on offer. The UK is either in the single market or it isn't. As a non-EU member the UK could remain in the single market by joining EFTA. The UK could leave the single market and trade on WTO rules or through a free trade agreement but it is likely to take many years (7-10) to negotiate a free trade agreement. Neither the EU27 nor the UK government are likely to be willing to keep the UK in the transition period for a decade while a FTA is negotiated, so that means the non-single market Brexit endpoint after the transition period is to leave on WTO terms. The other obvious Brexit endpoint after the transition period would be to rejoin the EU. So those are the three available endpoints: rejoin the EU, EFTA, WTO.

There is currently no obvious mechanism for making a clear political decision on which of these three endpoints the UK should aim for during the transition period, none of them really have a mandate. A simple mechanism to decide this would be to put all options to the electorate in the form of a second referendum. To avoid the risk of tactical voting or vote splitting leading to an unfair outcome I would suggest a single transferable vote system which would encourage all voters to just vote for what they want, not try to game the system.

[rollover]

49 minutes ago, crouch said:

Any second referendum will most likely be about withdrawal. The EFTA option is the basis for a future relationship which is the next stage - the subject of the PD.

A second referendum can only include what has been agreed or what can be triggered unilaterally. At the moment the choices are: May's deal; revoke A50; no deal.

No deal is off the table now, it was rejected by MPs.

The next referendum should be May's deal - revoke A50.

[rollover]

 

Quote

 

Officials 'draw up plan to deal with May collapse

Commons officials concerned about Theresa May’s health have reportedly drawn up contingency plans to whisk her out of the Commons if she collapses.

As senior cabinet figures complained that the Prime Minister's judgement had reportedly gone 'haywire' in recent weeks Mr Lidington, her de-facto deputy Prime Minister, was named as a possible caretaker if she is forced out.

Daily Mail

 

Theresa May’s replacement if she collapses is going to be Mr Lidington.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

3 hours ago, dances with sheeple said:

Now you`re getting it! Good quote from SKY guest yesterday - "The people in London are there to overthrow a democratic vote, they are marching against democracy and should be ashamed of themselves".

That’s a silly little quote. 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

3 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

IDS rocks up in a Morgan ?

 

 

 

Man of the people fighting the establishment elite. 

Or hypocrit supreme?

 

Edited March 24, 2019 by MonsieurCopperCrutch

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I don’t think we need a second referendum to agree EFTA. Parliment is keen to have indicative votes on all the brexit options and this is likely to be the favourite.

But if we did put EFTA to the people what do you suggest?

May’s deal vs EFTA?

EFTA vs no deal WTO?

The choices will be:

Mays Deal, EFTA, Remain. 

Or

EFTA, WTO, Remain. 

 

[OnionTerror]

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

The only thing that 'solves the NI border issue' is the UK staying in both the single market and the customs union, in which case it might as well remain an EU member.

EFTA membership wouldnt mean ever closer union..

[Dorkins]

17 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

EFTA membership wouldnt mean ever closer union..

I'm not totally convinced that ever closer union really means much given that changes to competencies require treaty change, treaty change requires unanimity, and EU member states cannot be ejected from the EU against their will, which when you put it all together means member states can essentially always negotiate opt outs by threatening to block treaty changes which increase integration if they aren't allowed to opt out. 'Ever closer union' is unenforceable.

[OnionTerror]

2 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

I'm not totally convinced that ever closer union really means much given that changes to competencies require treaty change, treaty change requires unanimity, and EU member states cannot be ejected from the EU against their will, which when you put it all together means member states can essentially always negotiate opt outs by threatening to block treaty changes which increase integration if they aren't allowed to opt out. 'Ever closer union' is unenforceable.

As I said before, it couldnt be THE customs union, as that is an EU member state competency..

[pig]

5 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Oh dear, you simply failed to airbrush out the current definitions of populism and insert your own narrative and you are not alone in using that tactic.

I'm not upset, I just challenge your narratives and inability to respond with anything but inanity.

 

Look tbh I guess its not entirely clear to me what you are hoping to get out of these exchanges

You do have a number of peculiarities, one of which is the awkward way you provide your own 'airbrushed' running commentary. Difficult to tell whether you are trolling or struggling with a cognitive dissonance or just struggling.

You've repeatedly accused me of racism, in part because I haven't taken the bait.  

Sure its not nice but its sooo fecking weird - and having learnt from the pointlessness of the populism debate! - rather than responding it just seems more efficient and instructive observing how you debate with other posters. Sorry Other Posters ! But hey its a forum

 

[pig]

3 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

I don’t think we need a second referendum to agree EFTA. Parliment is keen to have indicative votes on all the brexit options and this is likely to be the favourite.

But if we did put EFTA to the people what do you suggest?

May’s deal vs EFTA?

EFTA vs no deal WTO?

Revoke A50 vs exiling the ERG to the Pitcairn Islands.

[Chunketh]

6 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

No doubt about the populist surge and the efforts being expended to quell it.

The comparison of the Breaking Point poster to a Nazi image, or policies/speeches to those Hitler made, or calling politicos/organisation Nazis etc. is just the frustration of those unable to counter the message/issues.

Lastly, none of the legal challenges against the poster were successful and the EU was and is at Breaking Point.

It may have been deemed legal, that doesn't make it ok. I don't think Farrage is a Nazi either, just a massive twit.

[Chunketh]

7 minutes ago, pig said:

Revoke A50 vs exiling the ERG to the Pitcairn Islands.

Cant we do both?

[GrizzlyDave]

15 minutes ago, pig said:

Revoke A50 vs exiling the ERG to the Pitcairn Islands.

That is tempting...

[Sledgehead]

3 hours ago, rollover said:

No deal is off the table now, it was rejected by MPs.

The next referendum should be May's deal - revoke A50.

but May's deal has been rejected twice as many times as No deal. And A50 was agreed by some margin, so revoking it is logically as contrary to MP wishes as no deal.

Just sayin'

[Confusion of VIs]

4 hours ago, Dave Beans said:

They would accept an application from us, if we were serious about it.  If we see it as just a very short stepping stone, then they wont be.  The UK cannot be part of the customs union if we are not an EU member.  We can have a fully blown customs cooperation agreement, who would eliminate the need of a hard border.

The UK would regain its seat at the top tables of all the regulatory alliances, such as Codex Alimentarius and so on - don't forget, the EU is a massive rule taker too.  85-90% of the SM "rules" are made from these top tables, which it adopts..  The SM EEA market acquis is only 27% of the current EU acquis. Yes, we dont get a vote in EU parliament, but we have plenty of soft power at the joint committee stage.  I also see it as a shift towards a proper two tier Europe eventually.  A hard Brexit will force the UK to go back to the EU with a begging bowl, as the WTO option is not a tenable solution.  I don't want that, nor do I want the UK to be humiliated yet again.  Please do some research...

Our problem would be in making the other members believe we were sincere in a) agreeing with their unspoken agreement to not rock the boat and b) that it truly was an end state

If we could not manage both we won't be admitted. 

As far as not wanting  the UK to be humiliated, that boat has sailed. I spent last week in Bucharest, even there I had people commiserating me on the UK descent into irrelevance. The St Patricks day parade on Tuesday was particularly humiliating because they were so sympathetic about it. I even was bought a Guinness by people who had just heard my accent and wanted to express their sympathy. 

BTW Bucharest is a fabulous place to visit, just starting to get tourism but not yet swamped by it. Like Prague 20 years ago, Try the Artist restaurant a little bit of Heston at night out in Croydon prices. Or GUXT Bistro excellent and even cheaper. 

Edited March 24, 2019 by Confusion of VIs

[smash]

1 hour ago, Chunketh said:

It may have been deemed legal, that doesn't make it ok. I don't think Farrage is a Nazi either, just a massive twit.

I'm starting to think that Farage is a bit more conniving than that. I've been listening to his LBC show a lot in recent weeks (maybe I'm a twit) and I'm certain that Nigel doesn't just hit all those hot buttons for his audience. There appears to be people who repeatedly call into into the show and its like they are reading a script. There is one guy who drools confidence and constantly/always talks about how he "does business all over the world" and then there's a couple of other little titbits from him like this morning his sympathy for the youth unemployed in certain southern EU countries. There's a lot of repetative message pumping and I'm starting to think that a lot of it is orchestrated either by actors or/and collusion.

[ZeroSumGame]

Great turnout  yesterday.

Well done the Old Bill for keeping a low profile and at the same time keeping everyone safe. Well done the Old Bill for keeping parliamentarians and other speakers free form harm.

Thanks to the one million plus who turned up and enjoyed such a good-natured event.

Five Million plus !!!! About 95% respondents from the UK.

#UnplugTheMaybot

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

5 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Great turnout  yesterday.

Well done the Old Bill for keeping a low profile and at the same time keeping everyone safe. Well done the Old Bill for keeping parliamentarians and other speakers free form harm.

Thanks to the one million plus who turned up and enjoyed such a good-natured event.

Five Million plus !!!! About 95% respondents from the UK.

#UnplugTheMaybot

Indeed, my sentiment also. A great big thank you to all who turned out on the day, and to all those enthusiastically signing the petition. Keep fighting the good fight. 

[Confusion of VIs]

27 minutes ago, Sledgehead said:

but May's deal has been rejected twice as many times as No deal. And A50 was agreed by some margin, so revoking it is logically as contrary to MP wishes as no deal.

Just sayin'm

In the end it will boil down to a choice between May's deal and revocation of A50.

The sad truth is it won't make much difference what we choose as much of the damage a soft Brexit would do has already been done and revocation now won't change that.

Even if we revoked tomorrow, we have already lost 2-3% of GDP and our reputation as a stable gateway into the EU has gone. We would still be seen as a flaky nation that could again change its mind. Why choose London  for your English speaking gateway into the EU when you could have Dublin or even Amsterdam.  

[thecrashingisles]

40 minutes ago, ZeroSumGame said:

#UnplugTheMaybo

#TurnOffTheLeaveSupportMachine

[Sledgehead]

1 hour ago, ZeroSumGame said:

Great turnout  yesterday.

Well done the Old Bill for keeping a low profile and at the same time keeping everyone safe. Well done the Old Bill for keeping parliamentarians and other speakers free form harm.

Thanks to the one million plus who turned up and enjoyed such a good-natured event.

Five Million plus !!!! About 95% respondents from the UK.

#UnplugTheMaybot

Why Electronic Voting is a BAD Idea - Computerphile

 

Edited March 25, 2019 by Sledgehead